To be fair you buy every friday up or down, PE 5000 or N/A , over or under kelly criterion, technical/ratio/fundamental analysis be damned.

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You monster. Why do you want the decades of cheap money to end?

It's a fucking bloodbath

Some people don't think central planning be like it is, but it do.

You just need to pick the right stocks. pic.twitter.com/XZ78Q8BLRA

Sven Henrich  (@NorthmanTrader) September 23, 2022

Holy cow! It looks like the running of the bulls today. They are running out of the market. VOO (Sp500) is now performing worse than AGG (bonds fund) over the last 12 months. It's like watching a retirements burning in real time.

Sad to see, all I can hope at this point is that it's recovered before I retire.

Not really true. I don’t pick what individual stocks get bought.

Spidey is happy buying all the way to the bottom, then he will probably be giddy through the first 2 quarters of 2023.

Honestly it’s just numbers until you have to sell.

Wonder if we can get the Dow below 20k before New Years?

Spidey, did you already buy? It looks like it just got a whole lot cheaper. I'm just staring in disbelief, wondering how low it can go today.

What? Lol. Disbelief? This is normal and expected behavior.

I’m thinking 25k. Hopefully near end of December. No Santa Claus rally. I will be ready to shovel in some more cash at that time.

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I really think some people think the market will stay strong.

Not all lessons are free.

Guys, it’s time to start talking about our Buy In points.  

Those of us who preserved some of their Covid gains, when are you going to Buy Back Better?    

Like Spidey, I’ve learned some lessons over the last 3 collapses, although they are different, almost opposite lessons.  

1. It’s not that hard to get out near the top, well ahead of the carnage.  
2. It’s hard as hell, to make yourself to buy back in when everyone else had devastating losses, and the market is still in free fall.   -Yet, that’s exactly when you need to buy.   You’ll never be able to call the bottom in the heat of the moment.    “Buy when there’s Blood in the Streets!”
Yeah, OK, great advice, but that’s hard to do when the bodies are still splatting all around you.
3.  I look at Macro trends to know when to walk away.  We had a good thread December of ‘19.  I argued that it would be prudent to jump out at ~28,800 (this took no special prognostication- we were watching the John Hopkins Pandemic website and I was wondering Why the Market hadn’t already reacted- Wuhan was already locked down along with several other areas.-Covid was already spreading into Europe-Exponentially.  There was no way it wasn’t going to cause a contraction. By March 16th it was 19,173 -That was the time to Buy back in, but it’s difficult to discern in the moment.  Luckily, I had Pre-decided on 22,000, or I would have missed that brutally V shaped recovery.    
Anyway, this time we had an even clearer bug out signal: The FED literally said they were going to prick the bubble.  

4. I’m in total agreement that we Have to be in the Market, to keep from being destroyed by inflation.   For those of us who can’t do slumlording, or grow our own business, the Market offers us a chance to get rich off the ideas and efforts of others.  

5. As Spidey says, there are some fantastic deals to be had, and even better deals to be had in the near future.  

So-  When is your Buy in Point, and What are you looking to buy?  
Just as a WAG, S&P500 was at 3300    and the Dow was 29,000 post Trump runup, but pre Covid blowoff   I need to think on it a bit more, but that might be a good conservative spot to go back in. Basically conserve 20% of your assets, without much risk.   Even though there’s a lot more money sloshing around out there, I think we could see 26,000 in capitulation.  That might be a good All In point.  
AAPL at 125 would be a hell of a deal, if we get there.  
Just a few thoughts.  I wanted to put them down “on paper”, for myself.

Very lucky.  You could have just as easily set it lower and absolutely missed out - losing bigtime in the process.  When timing the market - you have to get it right TWICE.... and the fact is - most people do not, and it costs them, dearly.

I wouldn't be easily convinced to get back in before I saw signs of the fed leveling off the rate increases.

How did you come up with $125 on Apple?

Too true.  I fully recognize that Buying back in, is Exponentially harder than bugging out.  

That’s the point of my post.   Those of us who Hate giving up our hard earned money, need to have a plan, and we need to have the discipline to stick with it.   In that sense, it’s no different than simple DCA’ing, except you sit out the big contractions.   Too me, it’s no different from deviating around thunderstorms.   You’d never think about drilling right through the middle.  It goes against everything you know.  30+ years of accumulated knowledge and instinct; you can’t just plow right in.
That would be the antithesis of rational good judgement.  

I’m of the opinion that the fundamental framework which gave us 36,000, is gone.  (It’s not just my opinion, the FED has literally announced it)

So, two questions remain:  

1. How low can it go without Fed support?   (I think we need to look at fundamentals P/E etc.  I don’t know the number, but it’s shockingly low, Look at the valuations at the bottom of the last 3 crashes, then apply them to today).

2. How low can it go before the FED panics and begins adding support again?  Nobody knows, but we can make some educated guesses.  

SQQQ got me paid again today.  How long until you guys get on board the bear train?
Sqqq
Soxs

June 16, I bought an additional $30,000 at $130.. Everybody Loves AAPL and they always hold up better than the market.  I was trying to picture what total capitulation might look like.    Sorry I don’t have any inside info.  
I love apple, same as everyone.   I didn’t sell at 180 like I should have because they are really the only Growth/Value investment that I truly like.

So, $125 maybe another 30k and so on, then, I wouldn’t feel too bad if it dropped all the way to $70, because they know how to pick people’s pocket, better than any Romano Gypsy.  

 I don’t really mind catching the falling Apple knife.  

It fell into the fifty's in April 2020.

.  
Oh, I know.   I watched that split in amazement.  Since that time, the dollar has lost ~30% in value, and Apple has brought in new revenue streams.    I don’t think 125-100 range would be excessive.  
I went to the mall a week ago, every single store was empty, except the apple store, which was Packed.   It’s kinda ridiculous.  
My strategy this time, is just put my bids in, and let it ride.  Takes some of the emotion out of the decision making process.
The important question is: what is the right Valuation?    They are at a trailing P/E of 24.86.   High, but not extraordinarily so.    P/E of 20 would be a deal IMHO

Every crash is different.  People complain about recency bias, then apply it to other areas.  If it were simple to target, everyone would time the market, and mutual fund managers would easily beat the S&P index (overwhelmingly, most do not).

That said....

The schiller PE ratio is currently 27.65.

It bottomed after 1982 around 7.  
It bottomed after the 2000 crash around 23.
It bottomed after the 2008 crash around 15.

median/mean is around 16/17.

Throw a dart.





If you look at S&P500 PE ratio - it's worse - it is currently 18.66

It bottomed after 1982 around 8.  
It bottomed after the 2000 crash around 17.
It bottomed after the 2008 crash around 14.

median/mean is 15/16.

According to that, buy time is pretty damned close.

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Thanks, that’s really good info.  
I’m comfortable buying at 17 and 16.   Not trying to call the bottom, just trying not to overpay.   Looks like ~15-20% further to go.

I do understand, the buy time will be signaled clearly when the FED stops raising rates, but by the time they announce it, it’ll be too late.

Lots of knife catchers waiting in the wings it seems.

The entire summer rally was based on the lie that inflation was peaking and the fed would ease up.  That was a complete lie and an opportunity for wall street to unload more worthless stocks to the retail crowd along with fund managers who have never seen a real bear market.

The market is filled with unicorns and almost all of them are going to go bk, with a select few getting bought for pennies compared to their peak valuations.

Lol

....

I have found the best time to buy back in is over time.  For instance I probably should start moving some slowly back over but with the recent Fed stuff I am going to wait.  This is my choice but say if you move 1% a month and maybe more as it drops further...eventually you will be adding as the market returns.  1% a month from the original amount you moved would be 100 months or over 8 years, highly unlikely it doesn't get back where we are not unless something really fubar happens.  Buy on really big down days.  If it never returns you EVERYONE will have way more problems than just retirement strategies.

If you have a crystal ball you can time it just right....mine is broke so I will just follow my gut for now.....

I agree.  That’s what inspired the post.   Making big buys at the end of every big down day, might be a valid strategy.   Mainly, I’m just going to put buy orders in, at my preferred price, and let them ride, without giving it any thought.  They will hit when they hit.   That’s worked well for me in the past.

New rule:

Below the 5 year average cost.
Dividend above 4.5%
Solid financials and plan within a sector I understand
PE in single digits.

I started buying once the market dropped 20%.

Before that I was buying travel/vacation stocks that got burned in covid. I was doing ok until Dementia-in-Chief trashed our oil supply.

VZ pays 6.6 %

I like it.  What have you found that fits that criteria?

I was just looking at my VZ.   Down bigly.   They have a massive amount of debt.  If they can sustain the Div. It’s a hell of a buy.  If.

136 billion

It’s the same with AT&T.

Their debts are killing them.

I would never would have thought twelve years ago that T-mobile would have been the stock to bet on. But they’ve run their business consistently.

To be honest, T-mobile is such a better value for the consumer.  I get 4 lines for around $100.  That’s a big draw in a down economy.

Pink slips for Christmas?

I’m regards to T-bills, would it be best to do a 3-month contract and then roll the accrued amount into another 3-month bill to keep adding up? It seems like you could get double digit yearly returns if the rates stay up. Am I overthinking this?

T bills are express in annual rates. So you won’t get 4% for the 13 weeks but the prorated amount.

The 13 week average is 3.27%. Say the bid goes for 97 cents on the dollar, my tbill will reach its full maturity once it hits the 13 week mark and I can then deposit the full amount back into my account?

Futures look promising.  

Who cares, I follow closely and am up! Paid for my subscription many times over.

No, it would cost you 99 cents on the dollar.  It is prorated.  See the 99's in the price column?  

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S&P gonna hit 3400 by end of week. Won’t be surprised if we hit 2600 before we bottom. Stagflation will dominate the next few years. Could be many years before the market makes new highs.