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Posted: 5/14/2021 12:07:54 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's twice the number of data points GD usually needs before judging something. Extrapolation is a valid math process. Math is on the same plane as "science." |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 12:09:14 PM EDT
[#2]
Thanks, Biden. Way to toe the banker line.
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Posted: 5/14/2021 12:09:26 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: stocks went down and lumber went down, but lumber still capitulated and is still heading down while stonks are going up. I would appreciate if GD stops questioning my quant models. I don't understand these newfangled words like "quant." |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 12:14:35 PM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 5/14/2021 12:17:05 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: yep it's parabolic, same thing happened to oil in 2007. Also copper which is starting to turn.... When that rolls over I am going full bear. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 12:27:25 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I will certainly hold out longer to see if it continues, but around me all the big box stores are BULGING with lumber that is not selling. Yep - All one needs to do is go inside and then drive around the back and look for themselves. I have been to a few lowesdepotretards in my area and they are all the same - packed to the gills inside and back lots full of stuff they can't put in the store. From talking with several store managers, it sounds like sales were very good for most of the pandemic so many overordered, expecting things to just keep going to the moon. It sounds like they may be hitting a bump in the road and/or starting to turn downward. I guess we will have to wait and see... |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 12:32:31 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yep - All one needs to do is go inside and then drive around the back and look for themselves. I have been to a few lowesdepotretards in my area and they are all the same - packed to the gills inside and back lots full of stuff they can't put in the store. From talking with several store managers, it sounds like sales were very good for most of the pandemic so many overordered, expecting things to just keep going to the moon. It sounds like they may be hitting a bump in the road and/or starting to turn downward. I guess we will have to wait and see... Same down here around Houston. All the stores have plenty of supply on the shelves. Demand from that perspective is certainly waning big time. The demand on the development home/apartment building side is likely still driving much of the market. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 1:36:31 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't understand these newfangled words like "quant." Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: stocks went down and lumber went down, but lumber still capitulated and is still heading down while stonks are going up. I would appreciate if GD stops questioning my quant models. I don't understand these newfangled words like "quant." @AmericanPeople it's really not technically a new term. When looking at ways to analyze investment opportunities or market trends there are two main ways Qualitative Analysis and Quantitative Analysis. Quant is short or Quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis is for old losers like Buffet and Chicken Charlie Quant Analysis is for cool dudes like me. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 1:36:54 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryMy quant model is macro agnostic |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 1:37:43 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Also copper which is starting to turn.... When that rolls over I am going full bear. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: yep it's parabolic, same thing happened to oil in 2007. Also copper which is starting to turn.... When that rolls over I am going full bear. bear in the softs and metals? or in the bigger market? Because I don't foresee the market turning over as we are reopening and even Joe knows we need to shut off the UBI |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 1:38:26 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yep - All one needs to do is go inside and then drive around the back and look for themselves. I have been to a few lowesdepotretards in my area and they are all the same - packed to the gills inside and back lots full of stuff they can't put in the store. From talking with several store managers, it sounds like sales were very good for most of the pandemic so many overordered, expecting things to just keep going to the moon. It sounds like they may be hitting a bump in the road and/or starting to turn downward. I guess we will have to wait and see... Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I will certainly hold out longer to see if it continues, but around me all the big box stores are BULGING with lumber that is not selling. Yep - All one needs to do is go inside and then drive around the back and look for themselves. I have been to a few lowesdepotretards in my area and they are all the same - packed to the gills inside and back lots full of stuff they can't put in the store. From talking with several store managers, it sounds like sales were very good for most of the pandemic so many overordered, expecting things to just keep going to the moon. It sounds like they may be hitting a bump in the road and/or starting to turn downward. I guess we will have to wait and see... That's why the managers of Lowes make less than me |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 1:39:09 PM EDT
[#12]
Just from a charting perspective, it's going to go down a few more steps in days to come at the least, so as to backfill all those gap-ups. Nature abhors a vacuum and so do stock/commodity charts.
Once filled though, anybody's guess. With luck it will peak again but lower than the last peak, then you have a double-top and that shit will be going down after that. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 1:47:02 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just from a charting perspective, it's going to go down a few more steps in days to come at the least, so as to backfill all those gap-ups. Nature abhors a vacuum and so do stock/commodity charts. Once filled though, anybody's guess. With luck it will peak again but lower than the last peak, then you have a double-top and that shit will be going down after that. possibly but this is looking like a text book head and shoulders. whats interesting with softs are that people have substitutes available. Lumber get's too high, you can always do ICF and Metal Cotton gets too high, you can always use synthetic fibers Cocoa gets too high, you can always cut it with hazelnuts orang juice gets too high, pick another fruit coffee gets too high, choose another caffeinated beverage sugar gets too high, HFCS baby |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 1:50:44 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We will see. Paid $38 3 weeks ago for 7/16 OSB for a home. Yesterday it was at $52 and my salesman said they expected close to $60 sheet within the next week or so. Hey, you got a deal! 7/16 OSB was $59.20 a sheet here at Lowe's on May 1st. The discount was $56.24 if you bought a minimum quantity of 64 sheets. 
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Posted: 5/14/2021 1:53:38 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just a guess...the lumber situation hasn't improved, but new construction buyers are walking away from the table when they see the time and cost estimate for that house they want...especially given the probability that the trend line resumes it's march upwards when Biden's work force continues to prefer being paid for napping on the couch to sweating in a loud and dangerous sawmill. It's happening a lot here. We have multiple friends who've shelved projects. The custom builders here are the only people still really building in droves - and they're contracted roughly a year out at this point. All the same guys that had side crews doing spec homes have kind of disappeared... |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 1:58:01 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The custom builders here are the only people still really building in droves - and they're contracted roughly a year out at this point. All the same guys that had side crews doing spec homes have kind of disappeared... Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Just a guess...the lumber situation hasn't improved, but new construction buyers are walking away from the table when they see the time and cost estimate for that house they want...especially given the probability that the trend line resumes it's march upwards when Biden's work force continues to prefer being paid for napping on the couch to sweating in a loud and dangerous sawmill. It's happening a lot here. We have multiple friends who've shelved projects. The custom builders here are the only people still really building in droves - and they're contracted roughly a year out at this point. All the same guys that had side crews doing spec homes have kind of disappeared... custom builds tend to either have plenty extra money to absorb the costs or they out right own the land and can put it up for a loan to get the funds. Spec homes are built on small margins, but when you add in that companies like DSLD have the mortgage company, the title company and all that rolled into one, they can get away with the smaller margins. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 2:09:23 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: bear in the softs and metals? or in the bigger market? Because I don't foresee the market turning over as we are reopening and even Joe knows we need to shut off the UBI Bigger market. If Joe shuts of the UBI and the deflationary wall of debts hits in Sept, the market with rents and mortgages that need to get paid coming back online will cause retail to liquidate holdings from their speculations. Maybe I'm wrong but the policy errors have consequences. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 2:18:38 PM EDT
[#18]
Local lumberyard still wants $63 for a 10' 2"x10"
 Shooting benches at the gun range might not be getting replaced this year, since i would need about 14 of the boards and that is over twice the budget I have to fix/replace them. Might see if I can make molds from melamine boards and pour concrete like people have been doing for countertops. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 2:33:26 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Bigger market. If Joe shuts of the UBI and the deflationary wall of debts hits in Sept, the market with rents and mortgages that need to get paid coming back online will cause retail to liquidate holdings from their speculations. Maybe I'm wrong but the policy errors have consequences. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: bear in the softs and metals? or in the bigger market? Because I don't foresee the market turning over as we are reopening and even Joe knows we need to shut off the UBI Bigger market. If Joe shuts of the UBI and the deflationary wall of debts hits in Sept, the market with rents and mortgages that need to get paid coming back online will cause retail to liquidate holdings from their speculations. Maybe I'm wrong but the policy errors have consequences. I don't see people who are getting UBI paying their rents if they don't have to
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Posted: 5/14/2021 2:37:53 PM EDT
[#20]
Deleted dupe
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Posted: 5/14/2021 2:45:34 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Quant is short or Quantitative analysis. Thanks, I never heard the term. I must have missed something in calculus and statistics. Here is an example of extrapolation. Look at the solid red line. That is the daily number of doses using a seven day average. It is dropping around 55,000 doses per day. Almost exactly twice the rise prior to 11 April 2021. If we extrapolate that out, around 25 May we will be under one million doses a day. With about a third of the doses today being new people and the rest second doses, I don't see how the illegitimate occupier of the White House will reach 70% of US residents having at least one dose by 4 July 2021. I don't know if it will continue this trend downward but the vaccination effort is clearly slowing down substantially which explains all the ads promoting getting the vaccine. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 2:50:26 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When the crash hits...not if but when....there will be a ton of overpriced lumber sitting in yards and on job sites. Glad I decided to mostly sit this year out of the business. I'm waiting for that moment to build a new home. It will happen. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 2:52:28 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: custom builds tend to either have plenty extra money to absorb the costs or they out right own the land and can put it up for a loan to get the funds. Spec homes are built on small margins, but when you add in that companies like DSLD have the mortgage company, the title company and all that rolled into one, they can get away with the smaller margins. Oh I know, my buddy (who works in my office as well) also runs his family's custom home construction business now. He's doing spec homes with his father-in-law (FIL finances the projects and friend does the management/sub contractor hiring) and they haven't done any new ones for a while now. The custom stuff is full-bore his focus right now, that and selling pre-owned homes through the realty office. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 3:47:37 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Thanks, I never heard the term. I must have missed something in calculus and statistics. Here is an example of extrapolation. Look at the solid red line. That is the daily number of does using a seven day average. It is dropping around 55,000 doses per day. Almost exactly twice the rise prior to 11 April 2021. If we extrapolate that out, around 25 May we will be under one million doses a day. With about a third of the doses today being new people and the rest second doses, I don't see how the illegitimate occupier of the White House will reach 70% of US residents having at least one dose by 4 July 2021. I don't know if it will continue this trend downward but the vaccination effort is clearly slowing down substantially which explains all the ads promoting getting the vaccine. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quant is short or Quantitative analysis. Thanks, I never heard the term. I must have missed something in calculus and statistics. Here is an example of extrapolation. Look at the solid red line. That is the daily number of does using a seven day average. It is dropping around 55,000 doses per day. Almost exactly twice the rise prior to 11 April 2021. If we extrapolate that out, around 25 May we will be under one million doses a day. With about a third of the doses today being new people and the rest second doses, I don't see how the illegitimate occupier of the White House will reach 70% of US residents having at least one dose by 4 July 2021. I don't know if it will continue this trend downward but the vaccination effort is clearly slowing down substantially which explains all the ads promoting getting the vaccine. I agree wit your sentiment, there is a shit load of people who are not getting the vaccine for their own personal reasons. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 3:53:27 PM EDT
[#25]
All I wanted to do was build a picnic table and a table to put my grill and griddle on for my deck.
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Posted: 5/14/2021 6:22:58 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: All I wanted to do was build a picnic table and a table to put my grill and griddle on for my deck. you will be able to do so soon |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 8:27:47 PM EDT
[#27]
I just paid $36 for a fir 2x10x10' select board. It was hideous. If the yard was open on Saturday I would be returning them.
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Posted: 5/14/2021 8:58:31 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I would consider this a prime reason to increase production to the absolute maximum. Make hay while the sun shines is an old saying for a reason. I also suspect the owners of the mills understand that during a time of high demand, that is the time to maximize production & profits. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The mills have no incentive to increase production at the moment because they have fat margins, as those margins shrink, they will have to increase production, as production increases, margins will shrink more, then keep shrinking until homeostasis is reached. I highly doubt the mills are managed by people who posses the skill to understand how commodity demand curves work and how this is going to bite them in the ass. I would consider this a prime reason to increase production to the absolute maximum. Make hay while the sun shines is an old saying for a reason. I also suspect the owners of the mills understand that during a time of high demand, that is the time to maximize production & profits. This is what I'm thinking. If the bottom falls out of the housing market, they won't be able to sell. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 9:28:18 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'd bet money that we won't return to pre Covid prices. The mills will start to cut production to keep prices up when demand falls Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Still rolling over.....down roughly 18% from the top. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/277411/lumber_5_14_PNG-1941796.JPG I wouldn't be surprised if it found resistance between 1300-1400 on the short term. I'd bet money that we won't return to pre Covid prices. The mills will start to cut production to keep prices up when demand falls They won't have to cut production on purpose. Nobody wants to work. They're getting that sweet sweet government milk. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 9:32:15 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm waiting for that moment to build a new home. It will happen. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: When the crash hits...not if but when....there will be a ton of overpriced lumber sitting in yards and on job sites. Glad I decided to mostly sit this year out of the business. I'm waiting for that moment to build a new home. It will happen. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 9:41:56 PM EDT
[#31]
I recently saw someone in Texas say they were quoted $275 per SF for new residential construction.
This is not realistic or remotely sustainable. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 9:44:42 PM EDT
[#32]
Paid $38 3 weeks ago for 7/16 OSB for a home. Yesterday it was at $52 and my salesman said they expected close to $60 sheet within the next week or so. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 9:45:12 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: you will be able to do so soon Is the crux of your post that lumber prices will plummet in the coming weeks/months? |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 9:49:57 PM EDT
[#34]
The builder I work for just joined most other builders in the area and have stopped taking contracts.
There are so many homes in the works already it just makes sense for now. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 9:51:51 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I will certainly hold out longer to see if it continues, but around me all the big box stores are BULGING with lumber that is not selling. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 10:12:19 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Is the crux of your post that lumber prices will plummet in the coming weeks/months? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: you will be able to do so soon Is the crux of your post that lumber prices will plummet in the coming weeks/months? Nope probably will take 6+/- months |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 10:13:02 PM EDT
[#37]
Local lumberyard still wants $63 for a 10' 2"x10" |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 10:20:10 PM EDT
[#38]
Just paid $25 for a 2"x4"x16'. I think I may have been sexually assaulted when I reached for my wallet. Rape is the only way to describe it.
I think I need counseling for my trauma. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 10:22:26 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't see people who are getting UBI paying their rents if they don't have to The point was that if that comes back on in Sept it will get ugly. I understand that the UBI and forbearance has been levitating things. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 10:47:21 PM EDT
[#40]
Ok cool chart and all, so how do we make a profit on it?
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Posted: 5/14/2021 10:59:28 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ok cool chart and all, so how do we make a profit on it? Ask for my advice and do the opposite. |
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Posted: 5/14/2021 10:59:53 PM EDT
[#42]
I was suppose to rebuild my front porch this summer which is really a 8'x30' deck with supports for the roof overhang but because of the lumber costs I'm holding off a year hoping they will come down. I watched 2x6x8 treated boards go from around $13ea. to over $21 ea. and when you need over 80 of them the costs add up.
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Posted: 5/15/2021 12:01:28 AM EDT
[#43]
I'm amazed people are still building where I live, there are four very large houses going up in my neighborhood. I would have waited, but I guess they are trying to get them finished to take advantage of current home prices, they are a really in high gear too, not screwing around. They are quality built too, good materials, not marginal quality stuff.
Meanwhile this bozo closer to me who has been doing they fly-by night build, that has taken a year, with some sketchy materials, and a snazzy name for a construction/development company that didn't exist until a year ago, kicked it into high gear a week ago. They either got a loan or a buyer, my friend who does this sort of thing for a living says the house is built like shit. Lots aren't moving in my area, built homes are quickly. It will be interesting to see what shakes out from this will be and when. |
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Posted: 5/15/2021 12:03:19 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Here it is currently $65 for CDX and $63 for OSB. Marine plywood has always been obscene, and we don't sell much anyway - but for some time now, the prices have not moved - last I looked it was still at $73 for 1/2" and $75 for 3/4". And that has been the price since before the other prices started skyrocketing. I was actually surprised that it wasn't going up as well. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: We will see. Paid $38 3 weeks ago for 7/16 OSB for a home. Yesterday it was at $52 and my salesman said they expected close to $60 sheet within the next week or so. Makes me wonder what standard marine grade exterior plywood? In Beaverton, on the NW corner of Murray and TV Hwy, they are sheathing a huge apartment complex with any kind of sheet good they can their hands on. There is Densglass, OSB, PWD, and even treated PWD. It’s kind of comical and sad at the same time. |
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Posted: 5/15/2021 9:38:16 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's happening a lot here. We have multiple friends who've shelved projects. It may be small scale, but I put off plans to rebuild my wooden privacy fence and build a wooden deck. I can not rationalize paying that much more. The sad thing is that I don't see prices going back to what they were before Covid. They will go down eventually, but they will be higher than pre-Covid prices. I remember what happened to the price of lumber after Hurricane Andrew, and it never went back down to what it was before. |
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Posted: 5/15/2021 1:09:19 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just a guess...the lumber situation hasn't improved, but new construction buyers are walking away from the table when they see the time and cost estimate for that house they want...especially given the probability that the trend line resumes it's march upwards when Biden's work force continues to prefer being paid for napping on the couch to sweating in a loud and dangerous sawmill. It's happening a lot here. We have multiple friends who've shelved projects. Yep, we've put off our whole house remodel project until next year, or whenever the prices come back down. |
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Posted: 5/15/2021 2:04:48 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: stocks went down and lumber went down, but lumber still capitulated and is still heading down while stonks are going up. I would appreciate if GD stops questioning my quant models. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: "Correlation is weakening." Seems pretty damn correlated given what happened yesterday. What happened yesterday? stocks went down and lumber went down, but lumber still capitulated and is still heading down while stonks are going up. I would appreciate if GD stops questioning my quant models. But what do the Greeks look like? |
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Posted: 5/15/2021 2:07:52 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Bigger market. If Joe shuts of the UBI and the deflationary wall of debts hits in Sept, the market with rents and mortgages that need to get paid coming back online will cause retail to liquidate holdings from their speculations. Maybe I'm wrong but the policy errors have consequences. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: bear in the softs and metals? or in the bigger market? Because I don't foresee the market turning over as we are reopening and even Joe knows we need to shut off the UBI Bigger market. If Joe shuts of the UBI and the deflationary wall of debts hits in Sept, the market with rents and mortgages that need to get paid coming back online will cause retail to liquidate holdings from their speculations. Maybe I'm wrong but the policy errors have consequences. I’m seeing multiple signals for deflation. The big tell will be the unemployment report in June. If that pushes the Fed to taper, the ride will begin. |
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Posted: 5/16/2021 1:12:39 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I recently saw someone in Texas say they were quoted $275 per SF for new residential construction. This is not realistic or remotely sustainable. LOL This bubble isn't going to pop, it's going to explode. |
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Posted: 5/16/2021 2:09:13 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: you do realize FUTURES are forward looking, that's why they are called FUTURES The future is NOW! |
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