California style gun laws at a national level

ok.... we get it....

you didn't like Trump.

replace the record, replace the needle and start playing a new song.

Trump is gone.

Christ........it is WELL WORTH IT!!

How about new normal.

Compliance rates will be pretty low

Wow another Enlightened 20er.
How refreshing.

You are naive.

Obama did go after guns but had a Republican house to block it.

Things are also much worse now. There is no doubt biden will come after guns.

None.

The only question is how bad and how much can he get passed.

It will go on longer than that.

I think we have a slim window of hope...if all 50 senate R’s can hold the line on an AWB, it’s possible Manchin will join them, defeating it. I doubt they’ll get more than one real shot at it for the next year or two. Then in 2 years, maybe the senate and or House flip, making it more unlikely for the rest of his term.

But that’s a lot of “if’s”.

That's a nice way to put it.

Pretty much my thoughts.

One thing I'd add even if they do get rid of the filibuster, no guarantee they have fifty votes if they go too extreme.

I don't think they would have 50 votes for extreme ny/ca style.

I think universal background checks would easily pass, maybe even with the 60 vote threshold. Red flags would have at least 50 votes I think also.

Something between those ? Hard to say.

They might have the votes for a weak 1994 style awb. With grandfathering but no sunset this time.

A turn them in ban? Pretty unlikely.

Actually, it's drugs and Preverted Sex and Guns are bad because Victims can fight back.

You have smoked yourself retarded.

Nra trying to give away more of the 2a, just to stay relevant.

Doesn't isn't an option.   Arms stand between where we are and where they want to be.

Obama said the lack of gun control was the biggest regret of his presidency.

Trump set the precedent with how he banned bumpstocks. The game has changed and we are much more divided now than we ever were then.

They want back ground checks, they want people who are mentally ill to have no guns, , prohibit the importation  of icky guns, out price us from ammo, out tax, and requiring any one buying guns to haave a mental card??????   maybe????

Hell they are all coming after the guns. We all saw how quick they pissed their pants on the 6th...every fucking one of them is for gun control now deep down.

Virginia is the perfect example of what happens when dems get power in 2020..they go full retard shoving their stupid fucking agenda up everyones ass.. its gonna happen federally very shortly.. buckle up.

I truly hope I'm wrong, but I'll be amazed if some level of gun control is not passed. It would be wise to stock up on a few things like mags and lowers while they are still reasonably priced and available. Mags are starting to go out of stock.

How do you do fellow 20 and 21'ers?

Fixed that for you.....Trump didn't set any "precedent"

ATF used their existing regulatory authority under pressure from the executive branch...... thats been happening since the GCA was passed 53 years ago

We see radical gun control legislation proposed every year.

Yup, and with a few EOs , orders to gov agencies.. ( atf, epa, drmo ) he can  REALLY fuck gun owners hard, without congress / Senate ruling on anything.

1. Reclassification ar pistols as nfa.
2. Ban ammo / gun / gun parts imports. ( huge % of all ammo right there, maybe 50% )
3. Ban lead ammo from ranges,  hunting, etc. New expensive range regs,
4. Rule xm193 / xm855 as ap..and ban sale posession of it. ( 50% of ar ammo right there )
5. Amounts of ammo you can store / storage rules.
6. New lead / ammo manufacture regs..
7. New ammo shipping regs.
8. Order drmo to destroy once fired mil brass.

You get the idea. A few phone calls. A few EOs and were fucked with permanent high ammo prices basically over night.  China import ammo was banned via EO.. and China our biggest trade partner.. you dont think they wont ban pmc, wolf, ppu, zqi, fiocchi, seller and ballot, golden bear,golden tiger, armscor, magtech, aguila, and the other ammo imports, imported surplus ammo, etc.  just to hurt gun owners , via high prices and shortages ? One EO and it's done.

Why would you be worried about guns when they have made it clear they are coming after you?

Compliance arrests will be high. Ratted out by ex wives, divorcing wives, neighbors, family, in welfare checks, traffic stops, noise complaints, at surprise range inspections etc. Every target shooting complaint includes asking for proof of gun registration, offering cash bonuses to agencies for gun violation arrests, etc.

I kind of wonder if they really don't want to implement it. If they do, they lose a talking point and a voting issue. Can't beat the drums of fear if you take away the things to fear.

I think so. They have the votes in congress, they know scotus won't do shit. They don't even need another "incident". Only thing they don't know is  what level of compliance they'll get. Of course the media'll can get up there and say we have almost 100% complied while making examples out of few that obviously are not. The worst thing that could happen in their eyes is passing all that shit and it being ignored.

"Right wing insurrectionist extremist shoots ATF agent as he enforces Bidin't's new gun safety for the children executive order".

So 8 years of Obama is coming for our guns and nothing happened.
Joe is to busy trying to remember which Chinaman he is supposed to bow too.

Provided the swap creatures don't kill or remove him (Which I think most people already assume they are going to). Dropping the entire gun control thing will pretty much guarantee he will get re elected for a 2nd term.

President Harris will do the bidding of her masters. There is no trust to be afforded them.

Also the battle is at the state level..all the insane shit during Obama happened at the state level.expect way more of it.

obama didnt have control of both house very long and when he did he used it on obamacare.

and if you think the democrats are the same now as they were in 2008 you arrent paying attention

Truth!  We are not playing the same field that we are  used to.  We have some genuine nutcase fringe leftists running the show now.


I keep saying these fucks might pass a law that we all have to be castrated just because they hate us so much.

This has been covered in this thread and many others.  It wasn't for lack of trying.

I would say that the President will start with Executive Orders to the ATF to provide him a list of proposed changes to regulatory interpretations of existing laws.  He will probably contact the State Department and see what can be done to further restrict importation of ammunition and firearms into the country.  As a consequence, I believe by late Spring to early Summer we could see a ban on the importation of ammunition in certain calibers into the United States as well as certain firearms.  This will raise the price of ammunition and firearms even more after that takes place. However, it's actually more than likely it will take MUCH longer to do that for Biden.  He has to get his people in place including confirmations, there will be the inevitable transition of government lag that can take a full year to really pull together.

I don't think that any legislative actions will be successful this year or next regarding gun control.  The Democrats hold an 11 seat majority in the House and only a one seat majority in the Senate.  They will have issues with their House reps from moderate districts and they will have a serious issue regarding the filibuster in the Senate.  If they abolished the filibuster rule in the Senate then they will be the dumbest party in the history of man, because there is a very good chance that they will lose their majority in both chambers of Congress after the 2022 election.  Very strong possibility of that happening.  

Typically a President can only achieve about one serious piece of legislation in the first two years of their Presidency.  For Trump it was his tax bill. For Obama it was the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare).  In truth, a President only has about a year to push for one large piece of legislation because in 2022 his party's legislators will be involved in primaries and then of course later in the year in their general election so controversial bills are rarely passed during that period.

To answer the OP's question "when do things return to normal?"  

In 2023 the panic should subside. I fully anticipate a Republican controlled Congress in 2023.  That will give gun owners a relief that should at least significantly diminish the panic buying.  With things by that time likely returning to normal after the COVID19 vaccine is administered unless the BLM events get worse, which I don't anticipate that they will due to sheer difficulty in maintaining momentum of effort (think "Occupy Wall Street" and how quickly that diminished).  

HOWEVER, the executive actions taken by the administration likely impacting importations seriously will have an impact on the supply of ammunition keeping supplies still low and cost of firearms above 2019 levels. With 8 Million additional gun owners in 2020 and the fact that it will take about twice as long to recover as the crisis has lasted I don't see firearms or ammunition ever returning to pre2019 levels until at least 2026 or 2028 (if Biden doesn't win a second term in 2024).  To be honest, I don't see the prices ever going to 2019 levels again given the inflation I expect we will see in coming years.

In short, it's not looking good for ammunition and firearms prices.  

We don't know if they have the votes in congress or not actually. Their majorities are extremely slim.

Yep heard it all before, and I have been around a long time..I do not see Biden getting much done as far as anti 2nd..There are a few complete far left wackos that will try to introduce Bills..But most will not make it out of committee even..Rest will fail if they are brought to a vote..Most Dems other than a few extremists, are not going to vote for any hardcore Gun Control..Many of them even on the left are Gun Owners and for the most part support the second amendment..

What they may get is some type of stuff they have wanted and even have support for from some on the right..Like closing the supposed "Gun Show" Loophole and such.

Many Dems are still from somewhat sane States..Especially Southern/Midwest ones and simply will not go against the people of their State on this issue.

Then add in we have a somewhat more friendly SCOTUS. The far left runs a huge risk now that could very well backfire big on them if they do something so crazy, it has to heard by the Court..They could very well lose alot of ground on many things they have gotten done in the last 50 years that were anti 2nd. SC may just decide to knock out alot of that as punishment to their past deeds.

I am confident things will settle in the first 6 months or so of Biden being in office. We are our own worse enemies for the panic buying though..It just causes us all to suffer longer..

May take around 2 years or so for things to settle if people keep panic buying ammo and Firearms though because of the fear of things that are not going to happen.

I remember in 1993 and 1994 a lot of people thought we'd never get an assault weapons ban or a Brady Law, either.

Based on ammo shortages and prices post Obama and SH....I would say 2-3 years. Just in time for the next election panic.


This is a shit hobby nowadays

That is correct.

Out of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representative the Democrats hold only an 11 seat majority.

Out of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate the Democrats hold only a 50 seat plus Vice President majority.

House Reps have to run for re-election every two years. Essentially, their campaigns for re-election never end.  Some of them won by very thin margins in 2020.  They are not going to be as "down with radical 2A restrictions" as some of you seem to think if they care about maintaining their position especially in the face of midterm election with no President or in some cases no "Governor" on the ballot.  Unless they have something like a legalize Marijuana initiative on the ballot to draw their low information low energy voters out or unless they still have mail-in ballots with the funding to harvest them that they had in 2020 it will be tough for at least a dozen of them them to back radical initiatives.

In the Senate the Democrats don't have the numbers to override a filibuster.  Even if they get Republicans who cross over to their side. Since they don't have enough votes to override the filibuster it's even less likely they'll get many Republican turncoats since backing a losing bill with a lot of negatives to it doesn't have a lot of upside to it.  They can't risk abolishing the filibuster rule, because they know that their one seat majority could very possibly be lost in 2022 and most likely it will be.  It's highly doubtful that the damage done to the economy in 2020 is going to turn around by November 2022 and they realize that so their position is NOT strong.

If we as the 2A community are engaged, passionate, civil, and responsible we should be able to easily prevent any legislative 2A restrictions.

I also take issue with the appraisal of SCOTUS as rubber stamping 2A restrictions.  They will NOT.  Donald J. Trump was not supported by the majority of the Court, that's true, but that doesn't mean that suddenly every conservative on the Court is going to bow down to the left on traditional conservative issues.  Even Roberts will find it difficult to maintain his judicial philosophy if he upholds an AWB.   We will have the advantage in front of SCOTUS if the worse nightmare scenario occurs and an AWB is passed especially if it involves confiscation or mandatory "buy backs" that are in fact defacto "confiscation".

Lots happened at the state level. Some States got royally fucked.

if gun and ammo demand magically returned to 2017 post trump victory levels today, which it wont, you wouldn't see normal market prices of that era until 2024. there's another election at the end of 2024.

at very best current conditions are the new normal for 3-4 years. some large ammo manufacturers won't even take orders at any price. they're already booked 18-24 months out and won't commit to even being able to produce ammo 2 years from now given the political climate.

i won't be surprised when new legislation slaps a 25-50 cent per round ammo tax on everything newly manufactured and requires other expensive features like serial numbers. or even bans new manufacturing of ammo completely. then we'll really see where the supply and demand curve meets.

Someone should save this for review in a year's time.

Attached File

The doomers really need to grow up.

We're actually not in that bad of position right now. In fact, with the likelihood being very strong that the economy will worsen this year it may actually be an advantageous time to be in the minority honestly.  The Democrats have to thin a majority to deliver on their promises as well.  They're President is a 78 year old man who will be 82 if he runs for re-election.  Their VP is a highly unpopular woman who couldn't even win her own home state in her own party's primary.  

So, everybody stop it with the doom and gloom.  You're only demoralizing yourself and others at a time when as a minority party we need to be strong.  If Republican voters are completely demoralized they will not turn out in the 2022 election and we need high turn out on part with the 2010 TEA Party turn out.  

So, smile. Cheer up.  The sun will come up tomorrow and we will prevail.

If he doesn't then we will have to listen to the Share_Blue Squad tell us that he is better than Trump.

Ammo, mail/internet ordering of same along with gun parts, etc., imports, taxing everything, will be top of the list.