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Posted: 1/16/2021 8:48:00 AM EDT
[#1]
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Posted: 1/16/2021 8:49:21 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No it has to be a slightly higher demand than 2019. 39 million NICS checks last year. Those newbs need to stockpile a little ammo and shoot some. That's why this panic is so long. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Add debt for a problem that comes up every 4 years so that in time between it's idled and they sell at minimal margins? Sure..... So you think demand will return to 2019 levels? I know some of this demand is a bubble, but not all of it. No it has to be a slightly higher demand than 2019. 39 million NICS checks last year. Those newbs need to stockpile a little ammo and shoot some. That's why this panic is so long. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 8:51:57 AM EDT
[#3]
I would think that at the levels of consumption we are seeing now even if manufacturers wanted to expand production to match market demand they couldn't do it in any kind of timely manner. The time and money required to tool up additional production beyond just increasing hours of production would be a lengthy process and a big gamble considering our present political situation.
I think I saw where there were between 5 and 7 million first time gun buyers in 2020. If the majority purchased a 9mm handgun and a couple boxes of ammo that is a few hundred million more rounds flying off shelves in just one year. Add to that existing gun owners "stocking up" and I think it will be some time before we see anything change regardless of political climate......I think that will just make it far worse. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 8:54:19 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Damn, was hoping someone would say “yes.” Going to be a bunch of grown men purchasing airsoft guns then I guess. What about increasing importation from overseas? Its not likely that anyone here who is in the industry who actually knows anything would post publicly. This ammo importation issue has been discussed in previous threads. From what has been posted in the past, getting ammo imported is a six month process of permits, transportation and distribution. We're already seeing some foreign ammo that wasn't widely available coming into the country. Some stuff such as Chinese ammo is barred from importation. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 9:01:43 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Some stuff such as Chinese ammo is barred from importation. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 9:15:07 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I still have a bunch of Norinco ammo from back in the 1990's before Clinton put the ban in place. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Some stuff such as Chinese ammo is barred from importation. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 9:21:42 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I guess you haven't been paying attention. This is now permanent problem. The left successfully stole an election there's now nothing stopping them from remaining in power indefinitely. We're now ruled by a totalitarian regime. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Add debt for a problem that comes up every 4 years so that in time between it's idled and they sell at minimal margins? Sure..... I guess you haven't been paying attention. This is now permanent problem. The left successfully stole an election there's now nothing stopping them from remaining in power indefinitely. We're now ruled by a totalitarian regime. You mean the same people as the last 50 years? Yeah those people |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 9:49:08 AM EDT
[#8]
No.......Ammo is gonna get harder to find, cost you more, and with maybe even restrictive laws in place.......
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Posted: 1/16/2021 10:45:37 AM EDT
[#9]
Every bubble has people who think this time it's not a bubble.
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Posted: 1/16/2021 10:51:21 AM EDT
[#10]
Look at why people are buying all the ammo. (Afraid it will be outlawed somehow, or guns will)
Same reason they won’t expand shops. Same fear as us. They put mills in new equip. then gov makes ammo or guns illegal, they are out millions of dollars. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 10:53:17 AM EDT
[#11]
Lead ammo is bad, mmkay. Non toxic only from hitherto.
I'm waiting for that one too come down. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 12:42:57 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ^^^This! Not a chance in hell with the uncertainty of their future. They will produce maximum capacity with what they currently have. yup |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 12:48:38 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The entire industry is standing by for higher regulation, restriction and operating liability. Nobody is increasing anything. And what is produced will go to the .gov . Civilians ? Hell NO . gd |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 12:51:45 PM EDT
[#14]
Of course they "have" ramped up production.... To a degree. Adding people, making sure equipment stays up and producing. Money is to be made "now."
But if you think they will suddenly break ground on new factories or buildings .. highly unlikely. Gun control=ammo control is not just a gun board conspiracy idea. I recall a lefty politician during the 94' awb bullshit bringing it up and saying that its in the plans down the road. It's the logical control policy for this current batch of commies that are being handed the keys to this country. EO'ing things like importation bans in the name of public safety would be easy and unchallenged. Domestic manufacturers will suddenly be dealing with env. reg's that stifle production in a way most people can't imagine. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 1:35:05 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The entire industry is standing by for higher regulation, restriction and operating liability. Nobody is increasing anything. Excepting perhaps that we'll get unwittingly dragged into a war because of our newly perceived weakness. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 4:19:29 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The entire industry is standing by for higher regulation, restriction and operating liability. Nobody is increasing anything. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 4:23:26 PM EDT
[#17]
Much of the ammo is being bought by scalpers to resale like PS5s, and NVIDIA video cards.
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Posted: 1/16/2021 4:30:48 PM EDT
[#18]
Even if an ammo manufacturer decided to expand, finding components is also difficult.
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Posted: 1/16/2021 4:36:32 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No it has to be a slightly higher demand than 2019. 39 million NICS checks last year. Those newbs need to stockpile a little ammo and shoot some. That's why this panic is so long. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 5:01:56 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Excepting perhaps that we'll get unwittingly dragged into a war because of our newly perceived weakness. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The entire industry is standing by for higher regulation, restriction and operating liability. Nobody is increasing anything. Excepting perhaps that we'll get unwittingly dragged into a war because of our newly perceived weakness. The democrats and Republicans are looking forward to sending more young Americans overseas |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 5:05:03 PM EDT
[#21]
Nope.
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Posted: 1/16/2021 5:15:37 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Much of the ammo is being bought by scalpers to resale like PS5s, and NVIDIA video cards. Black market provides |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 5:16:27 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Even if an ammo manufacturer decided to expand, finding components is also difficult. They would need to produce more projectiles, powder, primers, and brass. The machinery to assemble ammo isn't the big hurdle |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 5:22:31 PM EDT
[#24]
I think they'll hold off. They know demand wanes and probably want to see what happensn legislatively as well. I have a feeling they have an inside line on what congress is planning concerning ammo, and I think congress is seeing how far they can take things without major pushback.
As a company, I would be in a happy place maximizing output production while also getting paid more for the product. If they start increasing production, other companies will too, and before you know it, supply catches up with demand making the product worth less. They're not in a rush to be in that position. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 5:24:22 PM EDT
[#25]
I was going to say too many unknowns for them to do it, but I'm sure the government will need more ammo.
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Posted: 1/16/2021 6:12:25 PM EDT
[#26]
Doubtful. Manufacturers are seeing shortages in raw/refined materials, delayed deliveries, etc.
That's why this year's so fucked up. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 6:20:16 PM EDT
[#27]
If ammo manufacturers priced their product correctly there wouldn't be a shortage, right? Hardly anyone wants just ammo. They want inexpensive ammo.
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Posted: 1/16/2021 6:41:41 PM EDT
[#28]
Upping production capacity in a panic is rarely a good business stratigy. The market is currently being flooded with product - which is great as there is excess demand. But by the time a company can actually up production capacity - will there be enough demand to maintain a profit margin and pay off the capital invested in upping the production capacity.
Look what happened post Sandy hook - when everything settled out, not only did demand dwindle, but there was tons of prep supplies unused getting put back on the market - Yes we did get salad days, but we also had a lot of manufacturers disappearing as they could not make a profit with the depressed prices post panic. Ammo manufacturers came out ok, but rifle manufacturers dropped like flies. Nobody wants to invest millions to sell 50rds of 9mm for less than $10 a box, or 20rds of .223 for $7. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 6:41:56 PM EDT
[#29]
I wonder how Dillon, Hornady, Lee and some of the others are doing. I don't see any surplus, that's for sure. And you have to think, as these restrictions work their way through the courts, that Roberts will take his good old time (as in years).
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Posted: 1/16/2021 6:48:07 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I see them manufacturing as much ammo as possible given their current equipment. 24/7 production. Will they add machines and facilities to increase production even further? Highly unlikely asup it would likely be a very poor investment long term. This. All those new buyers are unlikely to become regular shooters. They bought their couple boxes that will last a couple decades. The panic will subside, inventories will recover, prices will drop, until the next panic. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 6:50:37 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The democrats and Republicans are looking forward to sending more young Americans overseas War pig nation. And this time, it might be making up for lost time. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 6:52:11 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I wonder how Dillon, Hornady, Lee and some of the others are doing. I don't see any surplus, that's for sure. And you have to think, as these restrictions work their way through the courts, that Roberts will take his good old time (as in years). I'm gonna take up reloading , said who? With what primers? |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 6:58:22 PM EDT
[#33]
Adding ammo production capability is expensive in time and money, nobody wants to invest a bunch of money in an uncertain future. Easy path to bankruptcy.
We went through this last time |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 7:07:25 PM EDT
[#34]
Biden will let the Chinese ammo back in, yeah right.
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Posted: 1/16/2021 7:08:49 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What about increasing importation from overseas? They already have, you're soon going to see a bunch of ammo from Turkey |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 9:22:27 PM EDT
[#36]
Call me a tin foil hat.
I think the ammo shortage is no accident. Why would ammo manufacturers and importers not want to make money hand over fist? I think someone figured out rifles are useless without ammo. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 9:30:55 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm gonna take up reloading , said who? With what primers? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I wonder how Dillon, Hornady, Lee and some of the others are doing. I don't see any surplus, that's for sure. And you have to think, as these restrictions work their way through the courts, that Roberts will take his good old time (as in years). I'm gonna take up reloading , said who? With what primers? I'll sell you a dozen. 
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Posted: 1/16/2021 9:48:44 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm gonna take up reloading , said who? With what primers? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I wonder how Dillon, Hornady, Lee and some of the others are doing. I don't see any surplus, that's for sure. And you have to think, as these restrictions work their way through the courts, that Roberts will take his good old time (as in years). I'm gonna take up reloading , said who? With what primers? Newbies and the unprepared are snatching up primers at $200-300 per brick all day/every day on GB. Equipment is also scarce right now to say the least. I've sold no longer needed stuff that I upgraded years ago for insane amounts on auction. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 11:35:29 PM EDT
[#39]
Quoted: I'm gonna take up reloading , said who? With what primers? If they were smart they would still be gathering components as there is a lot that's been available if you're looking. Eventually primers will free up. Quoted: Call me a tin foil hat. I think the ammo shortage is no accident. Why would ammo manufacturers and importers not want to make money hand over fist? I think someone figured out rifles are useless without ammo. Silly. They are cranking it out as fast as they can make it. |
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Posted: 1/16/2021 11:39:47 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They already have, you're soon going to see a bunch of ammo from Turkey Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What about increasing importation from overseas? They already have, you're soon going to see a bunch of ammo from Turkey SAR (Sarsilmaz) |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 3:05:17 AM EDT
[#41]
Highly unlikely as it would likely be a very poor investment long term. Been hearing this for over twenty years now. What's the industry definition of long term? |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 3:14:11 AM EDT
[#42]
The remington plant is being brought back to full production.... core-lok for everyone!
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Posted: 1/17/2021 3:21:06 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Been hearing this for over twenty years now. What's the industry definition of long term? Building a new manufacturing facility (or even repurposing a line) can often be a multi year exercise and cost many many dollars. Likewise, last year I could go to PSA and buy a case of high quality factory 9mm for like 250 shipped. No wait, no competition for deals, nothing. . . that was the price WITH shipping. People tend to look at these issues in a vacuum, but when you run a business you don't have that luxury. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 3:50:16 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: that 39 million doesn't even take into account all the 80% pistols and rifles that were built and there was no NICS check. Not to mention face to face sales between private citizens without a NICS check. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 3:53:52 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Much of the ammo is being bought by scalpers to resale like PS5s, and NVIDIA video cards. Yep. A lot of them are running bots that scour the online stores and buying up anything that pops up in stock. |
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