Posted: 8/23/2016 12:12:04 PM EDT
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I know some of you are sure Hillary is going to win and there's nothing that will convince you otherwise. This thread isn't for you but I know you'll mock it anyway. This is for the folks who are getting discouraged looking at the current poll numbers. Don't. I'm not saying this is proof of anything. I'm just adding some perspective to the doom-and-gloom nonsense that is posted with every poll showing Trump losing by less than 5%. In the general election polling, the Republican doesn't lead the whole way through. Going back to 1980, the Republican is (with only one exception) losing the telephone polls at this point in the election season. -1980- In August/Sept/Oct, Reagan and Carter were trading the lead back and forth with Carter showing a 4-6% lead all the way to late October when Reagan had an excellent debate performance and the polls flipped in Reagan's favor. Reagan had only a 3% lead going into the election but won by 10% of the vote in a "landslide" victory. -1984- The one exception. Reagan kicked Mondale's ass. -1988- G.W. Bush was losing to Dukakis miserably in the polls through August. A late July poll had Bush down by a mind-blowing 17%. In August, Bush was still behind by 7% but things turned around and Bush took a decent lead in Sept/Oct. -1992- Bill Clinton held a commanding lead for several months and won. There was no back-and-forth in the polls after July. -1994- Dole never had a chance. Even if all of Perot's voters backed Dole, he would have still lost. There was no back-and-forth in the polls at any point. -2000- Things looked absolutely dismal for Bush all the way through late September. Gore was beating him by 7-10% in the polls. Through October, the lead changed several times but things still looked pretty good for Gore. The debates caused some pretty wacky swings in the polls and we know how that one ended up. -2004- Things looked better for Bush this time but he traded the lead with Kerry several times. Kerry was never up by more than a few points. -2008 & 2012- Obama pretty much dominated the polls the entire time. Romney took the lead a couple times by a point or 2 in October but the incumbent had a clear advantage. So, looking at the results from past elections, Republicans do not dominate the polls even if they go on to win the election. The polls are going to be close til the very end unless Trump sees a big swing after the first couple debates. If Hillary was leading every poll by more than 5% and Trump hadn't had the lead all year, then it might be time to worry. TL;DR... polls don't mean shit so stop fretting. |
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trump really hasn't had the lead all year, a couple tiny blips where he just barely eeked ahead by a couple tenths of a point. Her Cuntness has had every media outlet on the planet and every civilian government employee, in both a private and official capacity, shilling for her 24/7 for a year or more, along with a multi-hundred million dollar advertising barrage. And the Democrats are still scared shitless. |
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I don't know anyone that has every been polled. I don't understand how they can be accurate. I was polled just the other day, no trick or leading questions, plenty of answers to properly answer with a response that really represented my views. it was a Quinnipiac poll. |
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I was polled just the other day, no trick or leading questions, plenty of answers to properly answer with a response that really represented my views. it was a Quinnipiac poll. Quoted:
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I don't know anyone that has every been polled. I don't understand how they can be accurate. I was polled just the other day, no trick or leading questions, plenty of answers to properly answer with a response that really represented my views. it was a Quinnipiac poll. Let me guess 
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there is some sig line material
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I don't understand how they can be accurate. To be accurate a poll has to have a sample which is nearly the same composition as the electorate. No one knows who will turn out to vote, so the pollsters make a guess. Some of those guesses are well informed. Others are based on the turn out in the last presidential election. One national tracking poll claims that it's sample is so composed. Some are clearly intended to influence the outcome of the poll. For example one national tracking poll includes 46% Democrats, 32% Republicans and the rest independents. The firm conducting the poll provides no rationale for the composition of the sample. 
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You forgot the latest midterm election. Polls showed dead ties in most of the races and Republicans won by 7-10%. Same polls showed Republicans losing 3 Governorships...they won 3 instead. In general, Democrats turn out more for Presidential elections. Fortunately they appear too stupid to realize mid-terms are also important. This election is weird in that both candidates are generally disliked by members of their own party. |
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Let me guess Quoted:
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I don't know anyone that has every been polled. I don't understand how they can be accurate. I was polled just the other day, no trick or leading questions, plenty of answers to properly answer with a response that really represented my views. it was a Quinnipiac poll. Let me guess Had the pollster laughing a few times. What he got was hate hillary, hate trump, voting none of the above 
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What Really Happened in the 1980 Presidential Campaign
Romney aides believe strongly that this race will play out like the 1980 campaign, in which President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan for much of the race until Reagan broke through just before the election. But there is another apparent misconception in the Romney campaign, which Nate Silver rightly picked up on in a tweet: Carter didn’t lead Reagan for much of the campaign. Below is a graph of all the polls, plus a smoothed trendline. The public polls were graciously provided by Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, who use similar data from every election from 1952-2008 in their forthcoming book, The Timeline of Presidential Elections—which everyone should buy. I’ve supplemented their data with some late private polls conducted by the two campaigns, which are available in this paper by Warren Mitofsky.  |