Posted: 4/30/2016 1:39:54 PM EDT
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Primaries aren't perfect, not everyone can vote, not everyone will vote, not everyone will vote for the same party as their candidate. But I am assuming most people will, and that is the basis of this spreadsheet
I have decided to ignore any of the above, and simply use the primaries as a poll because of the incredibly large data. ~50 million pollers, nationwide, from all walks of life. And then tally electoral votes based on R vs D primary votes I got all my data from politico because they have all this meaningful data, including the total voters by state, which is all I care about, but they aren't posting that figure If data from politico was incomplete, I marked it was an asterisk and assigned the states electoral votes to the party it usually goes with, luckily this was pretty easy. Also these states marked with asterisks are not accounted for in party voting totals at the bottom Once again, I understand that bernie supporters might not like hillary, and cruz supporters might not like trump, and people might run third party, and registered dems are gonna vote for trump, and independents are gonna vote for trump, and hardcore Rs are going to stay home, and yadda yadda yadda...I don't really care about any of that, I just made a "poll" based upon primary voter turnout check out the spreadsheet here If you guys notice any errors in my data, please let me know and I will make the changes |
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Not the only one... So I think if you list a summary of what you found and have others validate what you said by examining the data it might help. ETA. I do this a lot. Massive data on a spreadsheet and start talking about it and people look fuzzy. I look at spreadsheets all day and it took me a minute.
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No, it's interesting. CT has 7 electoral votes. Also you're showing LA as going D. I know what your parameters are but that's not going to happen. Same with Maine going R. And Michigan. And NH. But even so I still see an R win. It'll be close. I got 278 R to 260 D in the electoral college. http://www.270towin.com/maps/5PbW7 |