Posted: 1/30/2015 6:24:33 PM EDT
| Another thread got me thinking, what would you define as the technological singularity, and what is the likely result for mankind? |
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http://www.singularity.com/
The Singularity is an era in which our intelligence will become increasingly nonbiological and trillions of times more powerful than it is today—the dawning of a new civilization that will enable us to transcend our biological limitations and amplify our creativity. |
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Quoted: Immortality via upload. All bets off at that point. It's more than that. It's using technology in such a way that makes our evolution up to this point seem trivial by comparisson. Not just becoming machines ourselves, or being taken over by them, but by melding with them as a gestalt. And yeah, I'm looking forward to it...
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I'd bet good money that the singularity ain't happening. At least, as it is conceived.
Right now, we can't even really define sentience. Self-awareness? What is that? By some definitions, most of the dogs I've owned have been sentient. By others, I'm not. Which is it? I don't think we're going to slip up one day and turn on some experimental machine in a lab, and bang, there's our successor that's out to eliminate us. If there is anything that happens, its going to be a relatively long and slow process as we adapt new technologies into the human sphere. Why would anyone think there's going to be some sudden tipping point, followed by huge changes? It's going to be a relatively slow process--The first steps are likely to be taken by our grandkids when people finally start linking their minds directly to the machines and the networks. Many generations after, you may see some uber-human forms that transcend a lot of what we know and can do, but there won't be some sudden moment were we turn on a machine god to rule us all. I wouldn't be one damn bit surprised if we still haven't managed a true Artificial Intelligence by the time I die. We still don't know enough about the phenomenon we call sentience to even begin to start building something of our own with that characteristic. We'll have emulators, but true, independent self-interested, self-aware intelligence? Long, long ways off. |
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Quoted: I'd bet good money that the singularity ain't happening. At least, as it is conceived. Right now, we can't even really define sentience. Self-awareness? What is that? By some definitions, most of the dogs I've owned have been sentient. By others, I'm not. Which is it? I don't think we're going to slip up one day and turn on some experimental machine in a lab, and bang, there's our successor that's out to eliminate us. If there is anything that happens, its going to be a relatively long and slow process as we adapt new technologies into the human sphere. Why would anyone think there's going to be some sudden tipping point, followed by huge changes? It's going to be a relatively slow process--The first steps are likely to be taken by our grandkids when people finally start linking their minds directly to the machines and the networks. Many generations after, you may see some uber-human forms that transcend a lot of what we know and can do, but there won't be some sudden moment were we turn on a machine god to rule us all. I wouldn't be one damn bit surprised if we still haven't managed a true Artificial Intelligence by the time I die. We still don't know enough about the phenomenon we call sentience to even begin to start building something of our own with that characteristic. We'll have emulators, but true, independent self-interested, self-aware intelligence? Long, long ways off. Ghost in the shell. |
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Quoted:
I'd bet good money that the singularity ain't happening. At least, as it is conceived. Right now, we can't even really define sentience. Self-awareness? What is that? By some definitions, most of the dogs I've owned have been sentient. By others, I'm not. Which is it? I don't think we're going to slip up one day and turn on some experimental machine in a lab, and bang, there's our successor that's out to eliminate us. If there is anything that happens, its going to be a relatively long and slow process as we adapt new technologies into the human sphere. Why would anyone think there's going to be some sudden tipping point, followed by huge changes? It's going to be a relatively slow process--The first steps are likely to be taken by our grandkids when people finally start linking their minds directly to the machines and the networks. Many generations after, you may see some uber-human forms that transcend a lot of what we know and can do, but there won't be some sudden moment were we turn on a machine god to rule us all. I wouldn't be one damn bit surprised if we still haven't managed a true Artificial Intelligence by the time I die. We still don't know enough about the phenomenon we call sentience to even begin to start building something of our own with that characteristic. We'll have emulators, but true, independent self-interested, self-aware intelligence? Long, long ways off. So, do you think that the predictions made by Mr. Ray Kurwzeil will turn out to be false? ( aka we will achieve Halo's Forerunner status by the beginning of the 22nd century.) Not criticizing, just want to hear your opinion. |
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Quoted:
http://www.singularity.com/ The Singularity is an era in which our intelligence will become increasingly nonbiological and trillions of times more powerful than it is today—the dawning of a new civilization that will enable us to transcend our biological limitations and amplify our creativity. How did they arrive at the "trillions" figure? Why was "billions" not sufficient to meet the definition? And how do you precisely define "more powerful", anyway? |
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Quoted:
I'd bet good money that the singularity ain't happening. At least, as it is conceived. Right now, we can't even really define sentience. Self-awareness? What is that? By some definitions, most of the dogs I've owned have been sentient. By others, I'm not. Which is it? I don't think we're going to slip up one day and turn on some experimental machine in a lab, and bang, there's our successor that's out to eliminate us. If there is anything that happens, its going to be a relatively long and slow process as we adapt new technologies into the human sphere. Why would anyone think there's going to be some sudden tipping point, followed by huge changes? It's going to be a relatively slow process--The first steps are likely to be taken by our grandkids when people finally start linking their minds directly to the machines and the networks. Many generations after, you may see some uber-human forms that transcend a lot of what we know and can do, but there won't be some sudden moment were we turn on a machine god to rule us all. I wouldn't be one damn bit surprised if we still haven't managed a true Artificial Intelligence by the time I die. We still don't know enough about the phenomenon we call sentience to even begin to start building something of our own with that characteristic. We'll have emulators, but true, independent self-interested, self-aware intelligence? Long, long ways off. Look up Moore's Law. Roughly put, technology doubles every year and a half to two years, meaning in a year and a half to two year from now the most advanced technology will be twice as advanced as the most advanced technology today. That's exponential. The tipping point is when we either loose the capability to control the technology (it designs and builds new versions of it's self/recodes it'self), or it becomes more sophisticated than the human brain, I.E. we will no longer be capable of comprehending the technology and thus will no longer be able to control it making it unpredictable, and unfathomable. |
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Quoted:
Look up Moore's Law. Roughly put, technology doubles every year and a half to two years, meaning in a year and a half to two year from now the most advanced technology will be twice as advanced as the most advanced technology today. That's exponential. The tipping point is when we either loose the capability to control the technology (it designs and builds new versions of it's self/recodes it'self), or it becomes more sophisticated than the human brain, I.E. we will no longer be capable of comprehending the technology and thus will no longer be able to control it making it unpredictable, and unfathomable. Quoted:
Quoted:
I'd bet good money that the singularity ain't happening. At least, as it is conceived. Right now, we can't even really define sentience. Self-awareness? What is that? By some definitions, most of the dogs I've owned have been sentient. By others, I'm not. Which is it? I don't think we're going to slip up one day and turn on some experimental machine in a lab, and bang, there's our successor that's out to eliminate us. If there is anything that happens, its going to be a relatively long and slow process as we adapt new technologies into the human sphere. Why would anyone think there's going to be some sudden tipping point, followed by huge changes? It's going to be a relatively slow process--The first steps are likely to be taken by our grandkids when people finally start linking their minds directly to the machines and the networks. Many generations after, you may see some uber-human forms that transcend a lot of what we know and can do, but there won't be some sudden moment were we turn on a machine god to rule us all. I wouldn't be one damn bit surprised if we still haven't managed a true Artificial Intelligence by the time I die. We still don't know enough about the phenomenon we call sentience to even begin to start building something of our own with that characteristic. We'll have emulators, but true, independent self-interested, self-aware intelligence? Long, long ways off. Look up Moore's Law. Roughly put, technology doubles every year and a half to two years, meaning in a year and a half to two year from now the most advanced technology will be twice as advanced as the most advanced technology today. That's exponential. The tipping point is when we either loose the capability to control the technology (it designs and builds new versions of it's self/recodes it'self), or it becomes more sophisticated than the human brain, I.E. we will no longer be capable of comprehending the technology and thus will no longer be able to control it making it unpredictable, and unfathomable. That's a huge leap from Moore's Law, and certainly not what it states. "Moore's law" is the observation that, over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years |
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Quoted:
Look up Moore's Law. Roughly put, technology doubles every year and a half to two years, meaning in a year and a half to two year from now the most advanced technology will be twice as advanced as the most advanced technology today. That's exponential. The tipping point is when we either loose the capability to control the technology (it designs and builds new versions of it's self/recodes it'self), or it becomes more sophisticated than the human brain, I.E. we will no longer be capable of comprehending the technology and thus will no longer be able to control it making it unpredictable, and unfathomable. Quoted:
Quoted:
I'd bet good money that the singularity ain't happening. At least, as it is conceived. Right now, we can't even really define sentience. Self-awareness? What is that? By some definitions, most of the dogs I've owned have been sentient. By others, I'm not. Which is it? I don't think we're going to slip up one day and turn on some experimental machine in a lab, and bang, there's our successor that's out to eliminate us. If there is anything that happens, its going to be a relatively long and slow process as we adapt new technologies into the human sphere. Why would anyone think there's going to be some sudden tipping point, followed by huge changes? It's going to be a relatively slow process--The first steps are likely to be taken by our grandkids when people finally start linking their minds directly to the machines and the networks. Many generations after, you may see some uber-human forms that transcend a lot of what we know and can do, but there won't be some sudden moment were we turn on a machine god to rule us all. I wouldn't be one damn bit surprised if we still haven't managed a true Artificial Intelligence by the time I die. We still don't know enough about the phenomenon we call sentience to even begin to start building something of our own with that characteristic. We'll have emulators, but true, independent self-interested, self-aware intelligence? Long, long ways off. Look up Moore's Law. Roughly put, technology doubles every year and a half to two years, meaning in a year and a half to two year from now the most advanced technology will be twice as advanced as the most advanced technology today. That's exponential. The tipping point is when we either loose the capability to control the technology (it designs and builds new versions of it's self/recodes it'self), or it becomes more sophisticated than the human brain, I.E. we will no longer be capable of comprehending the technology and thus will no longer be able to control it making it unpredictable, and unfathomable. So, what happens? The designs meet some critical mass of transistors, and they just achieve sentience? By themselves? We don't have a single example out there of anything really "designing itself", as of yet. There are a couple of pieces of "evolutionary software" that have been created that seem to emulate organic evolution at the basic level, electronic bacteria, as it were. Now, how long did it take life in our biological environment to evolve sentience? Couple of billion years, no? I don't think we know enough to even begin to make an educated guess at this stuff. We really don't even know how sentience/consciousness works in the human mind, and someone wants to tell me we're suddenly just going to create something that has it? If we do, it will be the biggest, most unlikely accident in the history of creation. I'm not seeing it happening anytime soon. |
...or a new generation of luddites will develop and purge technology along with most aspects of modern civilization... 
we are already seeing the results of technology in eliminating requirements for human labor... this trend will do nothing but accelerate... what will all these obsolete humans do? 
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Quoted:
So, what happens? The designs meet some critical mass of transistors, and they just achieve sentience? By themselves? We don't have a single example out there of anything really "designing itself", as of yet. There are a couple of pieces of "evolutionary software" that have been created that seem to emulate organic evolution at the basic level, electronic bacteria, as it were. Now, how long did it take life in our biological environment to evolve sentience? Couple of billion years, no? I don't think we know enough to even begin to make an educated guess at this stuff. We really don't even know how sentience/consciousness works in the human mind, and someone wants to tell me we're suddenly just going to create something that has it? If we do, it will be the biggest, most unlikely accident in the history of creation. I'm not seeing it happening anytime soon. Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'd bet good money that the singularity ain't happening. At least, as it is conceived. Right now, we can't even really define sentience. Self-awareness? What is that? By some definitions, most of the dogs I've owned have been sentient. By others, I'm not. Which is it? I don't think we're going to slip up one day and turn on some experimental machine in a lab, and bang, there's our successor that's out to eliminate us. If there is anything that happens, its going to be a relatively long and slow process as we adapt new technologies into the human sphere. Why would anyone think there's going to be some sudden tipping point, followed by huge changes? It's going to be a relatively slow process--The first steps are likely to be taken by our grandkids when people finally start linking their minds directly to the machines and the networks. Many generations after, you may see some uber-human forms that transcend a lot of what we know and can do, but there won't be some sudden moment were we turn on a machine god to rule us all. I wouldn't be one damn bit surprised if we still haven't managed a true Artificial Intelligence by the time I die. We still don't know enough about the phenomenon we call sentience to even begin to start building something of our own with that characteristic. We'll have emulators, but true, independent self-interested, self-aware intelligence? Long, long ways off. Look up Moore's Law. Roughly put, technology doubles every year and a half to two years, meaning in a year and a half to two year from now the most advanced technology will be twice as advanced as the most advanced technology today. That's exponential. The tipping point is when we either loose the capability to control the technology (it designs and builds new versions of it's self/recodes it'self), or it becomes more sophisticated than the human brain, I.E. we will no longer be capable of comprehending the technology and thus will no longer be able to control it making it unpredictable, and unfathomable. So, what happens? The designs meet some critical mass of transistors, and they just achieve sentience? By themselves? We don't have a single example out there of anything really "designing itself", as of yet. There are a couple of pieces of "evolutionary software" that have been created that seem to emulate organic evolution at the basic level, electronic bacteria, as it were. Now, how long did it take life in our biological environment to evolve sentience? Couple of billion years, no? I don't think we know enough to even begin to make an educated guess at this stuff. We really don't even know how sentience/consciousness works in the human mind, and someone wants to tell me we're suddenly just going to create something that has it? If we do, it will be the biggest, most unlikely accident in the history of creation. I'm not seeing it happening anytime soon. It will happen. You are way off base in the way you are looking at it. Transistors? Hardly. Quantum computing is alive and well. It's just a matter of improving the tech. Heuristic learning systems and neural network designs exist right now that can do far more than they are being tapped for. One of the primary limitations is processing power, which QC will eventually remedy. AI is coming and whether it is truly sentient and self-aware or not is irrelevant... because we won't be able to tell the difference. |