Posted: 7/10/2013 11:45:13 AM EDT
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They keep pushing the cone up Florida but the storm keeps moving directly west.
The last time they did this it ended up hitting Texas. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents |
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They keep pushing the cone up Florida but the storm keeps moving directly west. The last time they did this it ended up hitting Texas. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents As long as it doesn't get too strong, I'm okay with that. Could use some more rain. |
Non event.INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS |
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Texas could use the rain tropical storm or depression I'll take either. this. central tx needs it bad, and we're going to be camping at lake travis in a couple weeks, sure would be nice if the lake was another 5-10 feet higher. It's going to take more than a TS or 10 to fix that. |
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They keep pushing the cone up Florida but the storm keeps moving directly west. The last time they did this it ended up hitting Texas. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents I hope it loses strength and heads to Texas where the rain is needed. I don't need anymore for a week or two. |
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Texas could use the rain tropical storm or depression I'll take either. this. central tx needs it bad, and we're going to be camping at lake travis in a couple weeks, sure would be nice if the lake was another 5-10 feet higher. It's going to take more than a TS or 10 to fix that. maybe not... a few years ago Lake Sam Rayburn was so low from drought everybody kept saying its going to take years to go back to normal nope... a few good rains did the trick |
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Texas could use the rain tropical storm or depression I'll take either. this. central tx needs it bad, and we're going to be camping at lake travis in a couple weeks, sure would be nice if the lake was another 5-10 feet higher. It's going to take more than a TS or 10 to fix that. maybe not... a few years ago Lake Sam Rayburn was so low from drought everybody kept saying its going to take years to go back to normal nope... a few good rains did the trick yep, the runoff would bump it up a coupla feet at least |
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Texas could use the rain tropical storm or depression I'll take either. this. central tx needs it bad, and we're going to be camping at lake travis in a couple weeks, sure would be nice if the lake was another 5-10 feet higher. It's going to take more than a TS or 10 to fix that. the highland lakes drain a huge area, last year a couple inches of rain NE of Austin brought the lake up 3 or 4 feet. |
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Non event. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT ISEXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THEINFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FORGRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...ORPERHAPS MUCH EARLIER. Yup. Don't look at the pretty pictures. Click on the tab labeled "Discussion". |
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Non event. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT ISEXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THEINFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FORGRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...ORPERHAPS MUCH EARLIER. Yup. Don't look at the pretty pictures. Click on the tab labeled "Discussion". Maybe, maybe not.....check who authored this discussion I found on Weather Underground: after finding something resembling a center earlier today...the same
Air Force reconnaissance plane spent several hours investigating the storm and determined that Chantal no longer has a closed circulation. The data showed a very strong wind shift associated with the axis of a wave...which is now along 73 or 74 degrees west longitude. The remnants are still accompanied by a large area of disturbed weather and strong winds between 40 to 45 knots east of the wave axis. Even though Chantal has degenerated into a wave...the threat of heavy rains over Hispaniola will continue for another day or so. This weather will spread westward and then northwestward over Jamaica and eastern Cuba during the next 24 hours so. Both the ECMWF and GFS models show the remnants of Chantal moving into the northwestern Bahamas and near the Florida Peninsula in a couple of days. Global models show strong wind shear in the area of the western Caribbean...Cuba and Florida where the remnants of Chantal are headed. This will probably inhibit any re-development. Nevertheless...this disturbance will continue to be closely monitored for any signs of redevelopment...and Air Force hurricane hunter planes are scheduled to investigate the disturbance again during the next day or so...if necessary. Forecast positions and Max winds init 10/2100z 16.5n 73.7w 40 kt 45 mph...remnants of Chantal 12h 11/0600z...dissipated $$ forecaster Avila Hmmmmmmmm..... 
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Texas could use the rain tropical storm or depression I'll take either. this. central tx needs it bad, and we're going to be camping at lake travis in a couple weeks, sure would be nice if the lake was another 5-10 feet higher. It's going to take more than a TS or 10 to fix that. the highland lakes drain a huge area, last year a couple inches of rain NE of Austin brought the lake up 3 or 4 feet. The Highland lakes yes, the Lake Travis watershed itself is rather small. LCRA hydrologists say 30" of rain is needed pretty much all at once to bring the lake back to pool. |
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Quoted: Could have filled it up in four days.Quoted: The Highland lakes yes, the Lake Travis watershed itself is rather small. LCRA hydrologists say 30" of rain is needed pretty much all at once to bring the lake back to pool. Shoulda been on the FL Panhandle last week. |
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The Highland lakes yes, the Lake Travis watershed itself is rather small. LCRA hydrologists say 30" of rain is needed pretty much all at once to bring the lake back to pool. 30" over what area? over just the lake travis watershed maybe, but its pretty unlikely for just lake travis to get rain and none of the other lakes. Remember, too, the pedernales feeds travis so rain way out west near fredericksburg ends up there. As the lakes upstream fill, they will release water down to the lower lakes, they're not going to let travis sit at 625ft while buchannan and LBJ fill up. |
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Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 10, 2013
after finding something resembling a center earlier today...the same Air Force reconnaissance plane spent several hours investigating the storm and determined that Chantal no longer has a closed circulation. The data showed a very strong wind shift associated with the axis of a wave...which is now along 73 or 74 degrees west longitude. The remnants are still accompanied by a large area of disturbed weather and strong winds between 40 to 45 knots east of the wave axis. Even though Chantal has degenerated into a wave...the threat of heavy rains over Hispaniola will continue for another day or so. This weather will spread westward and then northwestward over Jamaica and eastern Cuba during the next 24 hours so. Both the ECMWF and GFS models show the remnants of Chantal moving into the northwestern Bahamas and near the Florida Peninsula in a couple of days. Global models show strong wind shear in the area of the western Caribbean...Cuba and Florida where the remnants of Chantal are headed. This will probably inhibit any re-development. Nevertheless...this disturbance will continue to be closely monitored for any signs of redevelopment...and Air Force hurricane hunter planes are scheduled to investigate the disturbance again during the next day or so...if necessary. Forecast positions and Max winds init 10/2100z 16.5n 73.7w 40 kt 45 mph...remnants of Chantal 12h 11/0600z...dissipated $$ forecaster Avila http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201303.disc.html |
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Non event. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT ISEXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THEINFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FORGRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...ORPERHAPS MUCH EARLIER. This...It'll be dead before it even gets to Florida. Yup. It had an R cloud flare yesterday and that is the death nail for development. |
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Watch the upper level winds and that will give you an indication on where it is heading.
Intellicast has really good wind charts. Under the CURRENT tab click on WINDS, then go to JETSTREAM. www.intellicast.com It will continue west and then hook north and to the east. I tried to copy the pic of the Jetstream map but it wouldn't let me. |
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I have been laughing at "BRACE YOU'S'EF!!!! STORM'S A'COMIN'!" nonsense that the local news has been reporting. The 'cone of probability'' stretches from the Yucatan to the outer banks but the visual aid that they use depicts it coming to my podunk town like it is on rails. And the Horror of it all is that there might be 30+ MPH winds and RAIN! We get that every afternoon this time of year.
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