[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Panic Duration (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 1/12/2013 9:52:04 AM EDT
| It is extremely unlikely that a new version of the AWB gets through Congress. So how long do you think it will be before that sinks in and the panic buying and general firearms frenzy subsides? |
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If we can get through January without any legislation and no mass shootings for the next couple of months then I expect prices and inventory to restore to normal in March.
The upside for the patient people is that we may see huge prices drops across the board as people who maxed out their credit cards buying a dozen AR-15s and hundreds of PMAGS will be desperate to sell them off. |
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Quoted:
If we can get through January without any legislation and no mass shootings for the next couple of months then I expect prices and inventory to restore to normal in March. The upside for the patient people is that we may see huge prices drops across the board as people who maxed out their credit cards buying a dozen AR-15s and hundreds of PMAGS will be desperate to sell them off. I agree. |
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Quoted:
If we can get through January without any legislation and no mass shootings for the next couple of months then I expect prices and inventory to restore to normal in March. The upside for the patient people is that we may see huge prices drops across the board as people who maxed out their credit cards buying a dozen AR-15s and hundreds of PMAGS will be desperate to sell them off. Yes please!! 
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This quarter is going to be tough for retailers. Lots of buyers, few products. I see two possible scenarios for the next ~90 days: 1. Sheriff Biden get his Ban. No new supplies for retailers, sales drop this quarter. Prices go even higher. 2. Lots of Ban talk, but no action. When suppliers will begin to get caught-up (early March), customers will see some products available, and begin canceling their backorders. That's going to be a mess -- customers trying to cancel orders for Pmags to be delivered to the retailer within 7~14 days. Obama has set a January deadline. In my view, that means if a deal's not done with Congress by ~1/31, Obama will quietly move on to something else. |
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Congress? Congress is irrelevant in the world of King Obama. EO on the way regardless of it's constitutionality. This fight hasn't even begun. +1 Everyone here is cheering victory already. All it's going to take is another nutjob to go on a mass shooting for things to get 3x worse than they are now. Also the 2014 mid-terms are very important |
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I don't think its going to end this time. It's only going to get worse after the inauguration and gun control bills start getting voted on. Even if nothing passes through congress Obama will use his EO powers to do everything possible. An import ban for Weapons, Mags, and Ammo is highly likely Their will be brief periods of relief when inventory Is available followed by prolonged periods of panic especially if there is another high profile shooting or terrorist attack |
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It is extremely unlikely that a new version of the AWB gets through Congress. So how long do you think it will be before that sinks in and the panic buying and general firearms frenzy subsides? It was extremely unlikely that Obamacare would get through Congress. And it didn't, but look at where we are now anyways. This isn't a panic so much as people wanting to make sure they have appropriate party favors for when the balloon goes up. |
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some stuff is already backordered between dealers and manufacturers till june Complete rifles and stripped lowers are on backorder from August through December 2013. Good news is that the manufacturers MSRP prices have stayed the same as of now. LNIB AR's are going for $1400 locally. The secondary market (used guns and parts) prices are very high. This could last 2 years, IMHO. 
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I bet by mid March it'll subside. If something else happens... never. I think it will take longer. The entire supply pipeline has been ransacked, from the LGS to the manufacturers, and there are a ton of backorders. I'd guess maybe nine months to a year. Probably longer for ammo. |
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Quoted: I bet by mid March it'll subside. If something else happens... never. You mean when something else is reported. We are a country of 315 million, that's a lot of people. Something is always happening. But the media curates the news, pulling out and displaying whatever they wish, or whatever serves their propaganda agenda. Right now they are pulling out "gun crimes". That's not going to subside again, ever. We are now focused on the agenda of "disarm the population". Its important to disarm the population if you want to "fundamentally change America". The financial situation is not good. There is inflation, and the government has done a lot of "currency debasement". The fact they call it "quantative easing" doesn't change the fact of what it is "currency debasement". The economic numbers being reported are manipulated and inaccurate. Many American's are unemployed, many more then are receiving "unemployment benefits". The CPI, has not reflected true price inflation. GDP is overstated, and our deficits, national debt, and unfunded liabilities are reaching a level where they cannot be sustained. We are in REAL trouble. |
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Quoted:
If we can get through January without any legislation and no mass shootings for the next couple of months then I expect prices and inventory to restore to normal in March. The upside for the patient people is that we may see huge prices drops across the board as people who maxed out their credit cards buying a dozen AR-15s and hundreds of PMAGS will be desperate to sell them off. I'm predicting a huge swell in the used gun market around tax time. |
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Quoted:
If we can get through January without any legislation and no mass shootings for the next couple of months then I expect prices and inventory to restore to normal in March. The upside for the patient people is that we may see huge prices drops across the board as people who maxed out their credit cards buying a dozen AR-15s and hundreds of PMAGS will be desperate to sell them off. I agree. I don't. It has been made abundantly clear that these people are hell bent on going after the 2A. Even if nothing, and I mean nothing, happens in the next 90 days via legislation and or EO there is still a very serious threat in the 2014 mid terms. 1 more session of a Democratic congressional majority coupled with a lame duck Obama and it's on. I think anybody with the means to buy a dozen AR's and hundreds of P-Mags at these prices is going to hold on to them or wait until they get really expensive to sell. What's different now than in 2008 is that there is no question, intent has been telegraphed in the clear - "We want an AWB and we're going to pursue it" If they don't get it now, it's not even close to the end of it. |
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Now I'm wondering how badly the manufacturers and stores be screwed by all the cancelled orders if this blows over without incident? Some have it coming for allowing orders of 100 PMAGS and a dozen orders of stripped lowers at a time.
Further more sites like CTD will be remembered for their gouging for a very long time and will suffer permanent reputation damage. |
| I half believe the panic is over now there are just people out there trying to make buck buying everything in sight and turning a profit. Buddy of mine bought two sig partol rifles in 308 . In less than 15 hours he turned them for a 1600 profit. He bought them from a new LGS, got home and put them GB with a buy it now $800 more than he paid per sold them by morning. |
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2 years if no laws are passed until the 2014 elections AND the republicans win control of the house and senate 4 years if no laws are passed, nothing changes in 2014, and a VIABLE REPUBLICAN candidate takes over the white house GAME OVER if neither of those 2 occur Dems can sit back and wait the right out... their FSA will only continue to grow |
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Obama isn't going to stop coming after us. I think this will continue for the next 4 years, unless their is a landslide at the poles during the midterm. If that happens I think the DNC will tell him to STFU.
I think he will use EO to kill off a lot of ammo and firearms imports. I could see Saiga 12s going to the DD list like the USAS12. I think he will harass us and make are lives expensive and miserable for as long as he can. |
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Seeing as how about a years worth of firearms and ammo have been purchased in about the last month or so it's going to be awhile. Factoring in back-orders and the logistics of getting stuff from the manufacturers to distributors and finally retailers whatever trickles in is going to be picked off the shelves. Whether or not the manufacturers have the capacity or ability to increase production will factor in too.
Ammo will probably normalize before the guns. My S.W.A.G. is about 90 days for ammo and 90-180 for firearms and accessories like magazines. |
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If Ammo is selling for almost a buck a round, Mags selling for $50 faster than they can make them, AR's with a year backorder, where is the incentive for prices to ever return to "normal"? There WILL be a company that will sell lower priced items just go generate more sales... If the "big boys" are selling rifles for $1200, non stop. Someone will step in to sell rifles for $500-$600, it'll add up when people flock to them for the price. It'll be like how S&W sold the Sports. They wont be anything fantastic, but a shit ton of people will buy one just because of the price. Hell, I almost bought one as my first AR, glad I didn't, but some people don't want all the "bells and whistles". |
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Quoted: Now I'm wondering how badly the manufacturers and stores be screwed by all the cancelled orders if this blows over without incident? Some have it coming for allowing orders of 100 PMAGS and a dozen orders of stripped lowers at a time. Further more sites like CTD will be remembered for their gouging for a very long time and will suffer permanent reputation damage. CTD? What's wrong with making a bigger profit? Free market and all that.Hell, just look at all the threads where members here have bragged about making double their money on rifles and mags....  |
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Reid doesn't have the balls to put a budget up for a vote. I would be amazed if he has the stones to put an AWB on the floor.
#notgonnafuckinghappen And Congress? Won't even make it to Committee. That doesn't mean The Kenyan won't try some backdoor bullshit. 100% ammo tax, No imports, No online ammo sales, Mag restrictions, no Mil brass. That's the shit that's coming |
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Quoted: Quoted: I bet by mid March it'll subside. If something else happens... never. You mean when something else is reported. We are a country of 315 million, that's a lot of people. Something is always happening. But the media curates the news, pulling out and displaying whatever they wish, or whatever serves their propaganda agenda. Right now they are pulling out "gun crimes". That's not going to subside again, ever. We are now focused on the agenda of "disarm the population". Its important to disarm the population if you want to "fundamentally change America". The financial situation is not good. There is inflation, and the government has done a lot of "currency debasement". The fact they call it "quantative easing" doesn't change the fact of what it is "currency debasement". The economic numbers being reported are manipulated and inaccurate. Many American's are unemployed, many more then are receiving "unemployment benefits". The CPI, has not reflected true price inflation. GDP is overstated, and our deficits, national debt, and unfunded liabilities are reaching a level where they cannot be sustained. We are in REAL trouble. You forgot the crown jewel of Obamanomics...the TRILLION DOLLAR coin to pay the debt off with. They were talking about it on the news today...gaining support. |