Posted: 5/12/2012 7:14:28 PM EDT
| Do they cave or stand up to Socialist Southern Europe? |
| Germany runs the EU because Germany is the only economy in the EU that is a) large and b) functioning. Germany is a resource-poor manufacturing and export-based economy. If any of the little fish at the periphery threaten to cause the Euro to depreciate to the point that it affects German raw material imports, the Germans will waste no time in kicking the offender out of the EU. |
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Germany runs the EU because Germany is the only economy in the EU that is a) large and b) functioning. Germany is a resource-poor manufacturing and export-based economy. If any of the little fish at the periphery threaten to cause the Euro to depreciate to the point that it affects German raw material imports, the Germans will waste no time in kicking the offender out of the EU. I don't know about that. I don't think Germany wants a failing Euro Zone |
| I just returned from Berlin Friday. Germany is going downhill fast in some ways. The city seems like is at least half musum now. The turks have invaded the country in a big way. The Germans complain that the give most of the money to support the EU but so far bitching is all they have done. I don't think they will cave in to southern Europe. Too many east Germans like their life now after the wall fell and I think it would split the country again if they tried to change that. |
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Germany runs the EU because Germany is the only economy in the EU that is a) large and b) functioning. Germany is a resource-poor manufacturing and export-based economy. If any of the little fish at the periphery threaten to cause the Euro to depreciate to the point that it affects German raw material imports, the Germans will waste no time in kicking the offender out of the EU. I don't know about that. I don't think Germany wants a failing Euro Zone They can boot a few of the small, broke countries and still have a functioning Eurozone. As things stand currently, they can't let them stay and have a functioning Eurozone. They do need to hold the line in France and almost certainly Italy and Spain as well. Greece and Portugal, on the other hand? Disposable to keep the greater whole intact. |
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Quoted: Lots 'o socialists in Germany to whom the Eurozone is a religious project. The intelligentsia there love the idea of a transnational Europe, and never fail to paint Hans Taxpayer as a proto-Freikorps nazi if he objects to his high taxes being taken from him to pay for it. |
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Lots 'o socialists in Germany to whom the Eurozone is a religious project. The intelligentsia there love the idea of a transnational Europe, and never fail to paint Hans Taxpayer as a proto-Freikorps nazi if he objects to his high taxes being taken from him to pay for it. That about sums it up. I doubt there is anything approaching a plurality of voters who support either the Eurozone or the current Hug-a-Muslim immigration policy. However, to say anything bad about either becomes an exercise in demonology. The downside risk the to elites cunning strategy is when people just don't give a shit when you call them ignorant racist Islamophobes. |
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Germany runs the EU because Germany is the only economy in the EU that is a) large and b) functioning. Germany is a resource-poor manufacturing and export-based economy. If any of the little fish at the periphery threaten to cause the Euro to depreciate to the point that it affects German raw material imports, the Germans will waste no time in kicking the offender out of the EU. I don't know about that. I don't think Germany wants a failing Euro Zone They can boot a few of the small, broke countries and still have a functioning Eurozone. As things stand currently, they can't let them stay and have a functioning Eurozone. They do need to hold the line in France and almost certainly Italy and Spain as well. Greece and Portugal, on the other hand? Disposable to keep the greater whole intact. That might be true in a few years when the core Eurozone banks are able to price the default of their massive holdings of sovereign debt in the "non core EU members," to steal a complete euphemism. As of right now, something like 30% of Belgium's pension holdings are in PIIGS debt. The Franco-German banks hold similar amounts. Once those nations split the Eurozone, core banking and pension concerns are going to be seriously effected. |
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Germany runs the EU because Germany is the only economy in the EU that is a) large and b) functioning. Germany is a resource-poor manufacturing and export-based economy. If any of the little fish at the periphery threaten to cause the Euro to depreciate to the point that it affects German raw material imports, the Germans will waste no time in kicking the offender out of the EU. I don't know about that. I don't think Germany wants a failing Euro Zone They can boot a few of the small, broke countries and still have a functioning Eurozone. As things stand currently, they can't let them stay and have a functioning Eurozone. They do need to hold the line in France and almost certainly Italy and Spain as well. Greece and Portugal, on the other hand? Disposable to keep the greater whole intact. That might be true in a few years when the core Eurozone banks are able to price the default of their massive holdings of sovereign debt in the "non core EU members," to steal a complete euphemism. As of right now, something like 30% of Belgium's pension holdings are in PIIGS debt. The Franco-German banks hold similar amounts. Once those nations split the Eurozone, core banking and pension concerns are going to be seriously effected. I'm not claiming that the core won't get its hair mussed in that scenario, but trying to hold everything together will end in financial armageddon for everyone. There is absolutely no way to avoid default in some of the PIIGS, and trying to hold the line everywhere will result in everyone going down together. |
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I'm not claiming that the core won't get its hair mussed in that scenario, but trying to hold everything together will end in financial armageddon for everyone. There is absolutely no way to avoid default in some of the PIIGS, and trying to hold the line everywhere will result in everyone going down together. They just can't price a Greek default, and Greece isn't a G-8 nation like Italy. Because of these facts, the Germans are going to bankroll the Greeks as The first PIIGS spiltting will create a domino effect. It might stop at Germany, or it might engulf Europe but stop at the water's edge, or bring lots of pain to everyone. But, I just think that no one has been able to price a PIIGS default in any meaningful way. I'm not even going to address the CDS mess, because I'm not smart enough to. The Greeks have figured out this "If you owe the bank 10000 dollars, the bank owns you. Owe the bank 10 million, and you own the bank dynamic." The political choice for the Euro elite is to sacrifice the banks and pensions, and save the Euro, or punt on the Euro, and attempt to save themselves. |
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I am German and have seen it change in a real dramatic way.
Berlin my home town for sure has change in a bad way. As somebody else mentioned the Turks have invaded Germany the bigger cities have been run over and certain parts of Berlin are pure Turkish most German have moved out of Neukoelln and some other parts. My two cousins are both Police Officers. One of them in Neukoelln it is really bad. The Gangs there have gotten so bad that I would never go in that part of town even during the day. Anyhow I digress. I hope Germany will leave the EU. Germans are getting really fed up with shelling out all that money to all the other countries that continue to bitch about the Germans. It sure will be interesting to see that Greece is doing next and what France will do after the Election. Personally I think that the larger / bigger established Political Parties are seeing a change. Many smaller Political Parties have cropped up and are gaining more and more seats. They will even gain more and all they have to do is build a coalition and it will get even more interesting fast. I can only hope they will not cave but you never know. |
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I'm not claiming that the core won't get its hair mussed in that scenario, but trying to hold everything together will end in financial armageddon for everyone. There is absolutely no way to avoid default in some of the PIIGS, and trying to hold the line everywhere will result in everyone going down together. They just can't price a Greek default, and Greece isn't a G-8 nation like Italy. Because of these facts, the Germans are going to bankroll the Greeks as The first PIIGS spiltting will create a domino effect. It might stop at Germany, or it might engulf Europe but stop at the water's edge, or bring lots of pain to everyone. But, I just think that no one has been able to price a PIIGS default in any meaningful way. I'm not even going to address the CDS mess, because I'm not smart enough to. The Greeks have figured out this "If you owe the bank 10000 dollars, the bank owns you. Owe the bank 10 million, and you own the bank dynamic." The political choice for the Euro elite is to sacrifice the banks and pensions, and save the Euro, or punt on the Euro, and attempt to save themselves. Someone with a better understanding of this will be along to tell me where I'm wrong, but this is my understanding of the matter. They can't save everyone, everywhere. That's a given. If they try, the Euro is over. With the failure of the Greek government to hold its end of the bargain, Greece's default cannot even be put off without devaluation of the currency. It's a matter of numbers. Germany's economy can't be sustained with a devaluation given current economic conditions in the rest of the Eurozone. It's a matter of manufacturing input costs in a resource-poor export economy. I don't know all of the numbers or tricks of the trade, but they might be able to work out a scenario where they punt the less consequential underperformers and can then implement appropriate monetary policy and structural reforms to save the rest. You have what are basically two different economic structures in the EU and they are affected oppositely by currency movements, which is one reason they can't get out of this situation. Magnitude of national debt is another, and there is at least a correlation between that and economic structure. The idea would be to take the hit but stop the domino effect with strengthened performance from the core. It would be a complicated maneuver to pull off at best. Maybe they can't do it. Regardless, it is going to be a worldwide hurting. We might be looking at the end of the Euro no matter which path they choose. |
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Regardless, it is going to be a worldwide hurting. We might be looking at the end of the Euro no matter which path they choose. This is the conclusion to which I arrived. I just don't see any way out, because the Euro populations will not vote for austerity to save themselves, like a panda that won't fuck to save its own species. We'll have our own referendum on that in November. |
| Germany reaps the benefits for a decade then acts all surprised that the southern-European countries have become an economic wasteland. I can't get my head around the fact that this is happening not because Germany was trying to profit from those countries, but because the eurozone founders put their ridiculous ideology ahead of any kind of basic economic reality. Kohl knew Italy's economy was worthless, but it didn't matter, same thing with Greece. It's one thing to ruin your own country in which you've been democratically elected, but to ruin an entire continent; madness. |
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Germany reaps the benefits for a decade then acts all surprised that the southern-European countries have become an economic wasteland. I can't get my head around the fact that this is happening not because Germany was trying to profit from those countries, but because the eurozone founders put their ridiculous ideology ahead of any kind of basic economic reality. Kohl knew Italy's economy was worthless, but it didn't matter, same thing with Greece. It's one thing to ruin your own country in which you've been democratically elected, but to ruin an entire continent; madness. Back in the early 2000s I frequently referred to the EU as the Fourth Reich. |
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Germany reaps the benefits for a decade then acts all surprised that the southern-European countries have become an economic wasteland. I can't get my head around the fact that this is happening not because Germany was trying to profit from those countries, but because the eurozone founders put their ridiculous ideology ahead of any kind of basic economic reality. Kohl knew Italy's economy was worthless, but it didn't matter, same thing with Greece. It's one thing to ruin your own country in which you've been democratically elected, but to ruin an entire continent; madness. Back in the early 2000s I frequently referred to the EU as the Fourth Reich. Thew difference being that the Germans don't want it. The French do with German money. |
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Regardless, it is going to be a worldwide hurting. We might be looking at the end of the Euro no matter which path they choose. This is the conclusion to which I arrived. I just don't see any way out, because the Euro populations will not vote for austerity to save themselves, like a panda that won't fuck to save its own species. We'll have our own referendum on that in November. 
You sir, are a wordsmith. |
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Regardless, it is going to be a worldwide hurting. We might be looking at the end of the Euro no matter which path they choose. This is the conclusion to which I arrived. I just don't see any way out, because the Euro populations will not vote for austerity to save themselves, like a panda that won't fuck to save its own species. We'll have our own referendum on that in November.
You sir, are a wordsmith. You are a NO-GO at the "Knowledge of 'Fight Club'" station, Ranger! 
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Regardless, it is going to be a worldwide hurting. We might be looking at the end of the Euro no matter which path they choose. This is the conclusion to which I arrived. I just don't see any way out, because the Euro populations will not vote for austerity to save themselves, like a panda that won't fuck to save its own species. We'll have our own referendum on that in November.
You sir, are a wordsmith. You are a NO-GO at the "Knowledge of 'Fight Club'" station, Ranger! I'll be at the next one, with the new rifles, and I assure you that you will like. 
Anyway, before I hijack further.......we shall see I what happens. My gut tells my Europe gets really, really violent before a change toward our friends from the East. 1600 years of Christian heritage isn't flipped off like a light switch. |
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Germany runs the EU because Germany is the only economy in the EU that is a) large and b) functioning. Germany is a resource-poor manufacturing and export-based economy. If any of the little fish at the periphery threaten to cause the Euro to depreciate to the point that it affects German raw material imports, the Germans will waste no time in kicking the offender out of the EU. I don't know about that. I don't think Germany wants a failing Euro Zone I disagree. I think the Germans have gained from the depreciating Euro because it supported their local economy artificially through a currency that doesn't fully represent their local economic capacity across the entire Eurozone. A strong German economy bolstered by a generally weak European economy keeps the Euro relatively low, thanks to the non-productivity of their economic partners, and therefore keeps the Euro depressed and supports the local German economy. Artificially, mind you, because if there was a floating Deutchmark, it would have kept them in check, but also not having to deal with these nagging details of debt from Greece, Spain, and Portugal. And probably Italy. Markets work, wether you want them to or not. The Germans should just take the pain and exit the Euro and reinvent the Deutchmark. So now comes the hard question. Given the debt of their inherited partners, how much debt do the Germans give to support the Euro and their feigned economic partners? I think they should resort to the Deutchmark, take the hit to the valuation, |
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Anyway, before I hijack further.......we shall see I what happens. My gut tells my Europe gets really, really violent before a change toward our friends from the East. 1600 years of Christian heritage isn't flipped off like a light switch. I don't think that's an outlandish analysis, and think the only question there is the who/what/when/where/how nature of the violence. Will it be nation vs. nation? Subnational groups, regional secessionists, terrorism, subversion, lawlessness, all played against governments too broke to defend themselves, but not under enough threat to galvanize their populations or outside intervention? Could the Spanish government really call in NATO against lawlessness in Galicia, for example? There is also a brewing wider war in the Middle East of Shia vs. Sunni. Europe is each sides preferred safe rear area. What does a Russia with peaking oil production in the 2020 timeframe mean to Northern European countries? The Caucasus is potentially thawing out. How do the Euros respond there, when most of our military is in the Middle East or the Far East. All sorts of interesting questions, and no one will want to go tank vs. tank with us. How and can we respond most effectively? Europe might not be interested in war, but I think war is interested in it. |
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Anyway, before I hijack further.......we shall see I what happens. My gut tells my Europe gets really, really violent before a change toward our friends from the East. 1600 years of Christian heritage isn't flipped off like a light switch. I don't think that's an outlandish analysis, and think the only question there is the who/what/when/where/how nature of the violence. Will it be nation vs. nation? Subnational groups, regional secessionists, terrorism, subversion, lawlessness, all played against governments too broke to defend themselves, but not under enough threat to galvanize their populations or outside intervention? Could the Spanish government really call in NATO against lawlessness in Galicia, for example? There is also a brewing wider war in the Middle East of Shia vs. Sunni. Europe is each sides preferred safe rear area. What does a Russia with peaking oil production in the 2020 timeframe mean to Northern European countries? The Caucasus is potentially thawing out. How do the Euros respond there, when most of our military is in the Middle East or the Far East. All sorts of interesting questions, and no one will want to go tank vs. tank with us. How and can we respond most effectively? Europe might not be interested in war, but I think war is interested in it. Some things never change, war only requires one antagonist. What the future holds is impossible to tell. Certainly my father couldn't see the Iron Curtain disintegrating as rapidly and bloodlessly as it did any more than Lincoln would have foreseen the United States would becoming a continental European power 80 years after the end of his presidency. All nations have different agendas, but the nations of Europe have one thing more or less in common, Christianity. I don't think it's implausible to surmise the next war in Europe will be religious in character, all the signs are there and they are lining up. I'm bound to the present time, and therefore I can't foresee the old Christian kingdoms of Europe folding to a ballot box or a few bombs in public markets. I hope and pray a religious war in Europe doesn't come, but I understand that it might not be up to us to decide if this war occurs. The other side also has a trigger to pull, and it's up to them whether or not they pull it. |
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Anyway, before I hijack further.......we shall see I what happens. My gut tells my Europe gets really, really violent before a change toward our friends from the East. 1600 years of Christian heritage isn't flipped off like a light switch. I don't think that's an outlandish analysis, and think the only question there is the who/what/when/where/how nature of the violence. Will it be nation vs. nation? Subnational groups, regional secessionists, terrorism, subversion, lawlessness, all played against governments too broke to defend themselves, but not under enough threat to galvanize their populations or outside intervention? Could the Spanish government really call in NATO against lawlessness in Galicia, for example? There is also a brewing wider war in the Middle East of Shia vs. Sunni. Europe is each sides preferred safe rear area. What does a Russia with peaking oil production in the 2020 timeframe mean to Northern European countries? The Caucasus is potentially thawing out. How do the Euros respond there, when most of our military is in the Middle East or the Far East. All sorts of interesting questions, and no one will want to go tank vs. tank with us. How and can we respond most effectively? Europe might not be interested in war, but I think war is interested in it. Can we get this guy and bigstick61 and a few others together? We could start an ARFCOM university. Or at least a think tank. |
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I just returned from Berlin Friday. Germany is going downhill fast in some ways. The city seems like is at least half musum now. The turks have invaded the country in a big way. The Germans complain that the give most of the money to support the EU but so far bitching is all they have done. I don't think they will cave in to southern Europe. Too many east Germans like their life now after the wall fell and I think it would split the country again if they tried to change that. Historical observation: I was stationed in Germany 1988-1990. There were lots of Turks. Germans hated them. Several friends who were German nationals told me they blamed Turks for Germany's high unemployment rates because they refused to leave after helping rebuild Germany after WWII. They stayed, became citizens, and had children who were citizens, etc. In their opinion Turks were taking jobs that rightfully belonged to Germans. I think "angst" fits the bill. Then came German reunification. After the celebratory hangover wore off, W. Germans realized a lot of skilled labor was flooding across the old border from E. Germany.....and with it E. Germany's debt. Even Israel was demanding W. Germany pay off E. Germany's unpaid share of post-WWII reparations. German anger turned towards E. Germans and they were getting attacked in the street and their "settlement camps" we're getting firebombed. When I left in Feb 1990 it was getting real ugly. The "skinhead" movement (or neo-nazi....or whatever the Germans called it) which was outlawed and never tolerated by the Polizei got out of control. The Polizei couldn't contain them, but strangely enough they weren't protesting Jews or non-Germans, they were protesting and attacking fellow Germans....how ironic is that? American GI's couldn't stand Turks either. They'd never start shit unless they outnumbered us 10:1 and liked to pull knives. They couldn't seem to figure out that wherever there was one GI, there were 100 more within 100 yards. It never turned out well for them, and we always had the support of Polizei. Our town had a large Turk population so something seemed to go down 2-3 times a month. Polizei would show up, start arresting Turks, call ambulances, and tell us to get lost. |
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Anyway, before I hijack further.......we shall see I what happens. My gut tells my Europe gets really, really violent before a change toward our friends from the East. 1600 years of Christian heritage isn't flipped off like a light switch. I don't think that's an outlandish analysis, and think the only question there is the who/what/when/where/how nature of the violence. Will it be nation vs. nation? Subnational groups, regional secessionists, terrorism, subversion, lawlessness, all played against governments too broke to defend themselves, but not under enough threat to galvanize their populations or outside intervention? Could the Spanish government really call in NATO against lawlessness in Galicia, for example? There is also a brewing wider war in the Middle East of Shia vs. Sunni. Europe is each sides preferred safe rear area. What does a Russia with peaking oil production in the 2020 timeframe mean to Northern European countries? The Caucasus is potentially thawing out. How do the Euros respond there, when most of our military is in the Middle East or the Far East. All sorts of interesting questions, and no one will want to go tank vs. tank with us. How and can we respond most effectively? Europe might not be interested in war, but I think war is interested in it. Some things never change, war only requires one antagonist. What the future holds is impossible to tell. Certainly my father couldn't see the Iron Curtain disintegrating as rapidly and bloodlessly as it did any more than Lincoln would have foreseen the United States would becoming a continental European power 80 years after the end of his presidency. All nations have different agendas, but the nations of Europe have one thing more or less in common, Christianity. I don't think it's implausible to surmise the next war in Europe will be religious in character, all the signs are there and they are lining up. I'm bound to the present time, and therefore I can't foresee the old Christian kingdoms of Europe folding to a ballot box or a few bombs in public markets. I hope and pray a religious war in Europe doesn't come, but I understand that it might not be up to us to decide if this war occurs. The other side also has a trigger to pull, and it's up to them whether or not they pull it. Right track, but too early yet. Islam hasn't hit the "magic" population numbers / density in many European cities for the real trouble to start. They need to breed more. They need to infiltrate more. Give them another 20- 40 years and then we'll start see the problems you foretell. 
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What does a Russia with peaking oil production in the 2020 timeframe mean to Northern European countries? Same as always: A threat. But then again, that is nothing new to us. Quoted:
Europe might not be interested in war, but I think war is interested in it. Sure seems like it. 
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| I left West Germany in 1978 after serving 3 years on the Czech Border. Went back in 2008. I was shocked at the difference. My memories were of an extremely clean and well kept country. The graffiti and litter I saw actually made me sad. As far as the Turks, we kicked their asses and the Polezei never said a word. Mike |