Posted: 3/28/2010 4:34:49 PM EDT
Since there were no F35 Joint Strike Fighter threads this weekend  I must fill the gap.
Prediction: F35 will be cancelled. Precendent: This situation mirrors the recent NASA machinations: It is announced the Space Shuttle will be retired, to be replaced by the ARES rocket family. ARES is then killed, but alternate programs through private space firms are announced, along with promises for research money for future Heavy Lift rockets. Soon the alternate programs will die quiet deaths, leaving NASA with no real capability of manned space flight. The National Air and Space Administration, which is no longer able to put a man into, you know, space. Back to the F35. The F22 program is killed, with F35 touted as its successor. But the program is mismamaged, prices spiral out of control, and it will be killed. But first I expect two precursor programs to be announced: a highly capable UCAV, and an austere manned fighter. Then F35 will be killed, and the replacement programs underfunded and then cancelled too. Net result: identical to NASA; forces with no platforms with which to conduct their mission. This is my prediction. After all, as was told to Rush, the current crop of Administration officials see their job as primarily "managing America's decline". |
Yeah, I was shocked there was no F-35 thread already. This has to be a record. Anyway, I am glad you started this one, since I was going to do one titled something like "F-35 bashing thread", just to get straight to the point. 
Anyway, my prediction is the F-35 limps toward full production, but with at least one variant dropped. My guess is the F-35B. USMC will end up with F-35C, USAF continues with F-35A. 
|
|
The F-35 does not supplant, replace, or succeed the F-22. The F-35 supplements the F-22 by filling a different role. Period, dot.
We'll be in world of hurt in a fight with F-35's tasked to air superiority. But, I think your bet is getting safer by the day. Every few days now the reported project over runs increase, and I'm extremely skeptical that the true numbers are being reported. The last one I saw was a 62% over run. We already know the USAF has been sitting on the forecast of a Nunn-McCurdy breech since last fall, Whatever is really going on inside F-35, we don't know unless we are working directly on the project, and either in the SPO or LM's corner offices. |
|
Quoted:
The F-35 does not supplant, replace, or succeed the F-22. The F-35 supplements the F-22 by filling a different role. Period, dot. We'll be in world of hurt in a fight with F-35's tasked to air superiority. But, I think your bet is getting safer by the day. Every few days now the reported project over runs increase, and I'm extremely skeptical that the true numbers are being reported. The last one I saw was a 62% over run. We already know the USAF has been sitting on the forecast of a Nunn-McCurdy breech since last fall, Whatever is really going on inside F-35, we don't know unless we are working directly on the project, and either in the SPO or LM's corner offices. Cancelled, or at least the A, & B models. I cant see enough orders from the USMC to make it viable, and I could see the Air Force with a C model in a cost cutting move eliminating the A. The C being more service useable than the A or B at least my thoughts go that way. Now with that said there are those here who think the F35 platform in its self can seem to do the air superiorty role, and so well we will be amazed  .
|
|
Quoted:
The F-35 does not supplant, replace, or succeed the F-22. The F-35 supplements the F-22 by filling a different role. Period, dot. We'll be in world of hurt in a fight with F-35's tasked to air superiority. But, I think your bet is getting safer by the day. Every few days now the reported project over runs increase, and I'm extremely skeptical that the true numbers are being reported. The last one I saw was a 62% over run. We already know the USAF has been sitting on the forecast of a Nunn-McCurdy breech since last fall, Whatever is really going on inside F-35, we don't know unless we are working directly on the project, and either in the SPO or LM's corner offices. Do you think there would be a realistic chance of the F-22 coming back into full production? A waiting game or is it done for good? |
|
Quoted:
Quoted:
The F-35 does not supplant, replace, or succeed the F-22. The F-35 supplements the F-22 by filling a different role. Period, dot. We'll be in world of hurt in a fight with F-35's tasked to air superiority. But, I think your bet is getting safer by the day. Every few days now the reported project over runs increase, and I'm extremely skeptical that the true numbers are being reported. The last one I saw was a 62% over run. We already know the USAF has been sitting on the forecast of a Nunn-McCurdy breech since last fall, Whatever is really going on inside F-35, we don't know unless we are working directly on the project, and either in the SPO or LM's corner offices. Do you think there would be a realistic chance of the F-22 coming back into full production? A waiting game or is it done for good? I think there is a narrow window left to restart a F-22 line before the tooling is scrapped. If that happens and a line is restarted, it will be a variant airplane, I guess a F-22C. |
|
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
The F-35 does not supplant, replace, or succeed the F-22. The F-35 supplements the F-22 by filling a different role. Period, dot. We'll be in world of hurt in a fight with F-35's tasked to air superiority. But, I think your bet is getting safer by the day. Every few days now the reported project over runs increase, and I'm extremely skeptical that the true numbers are being reported. The last one I saw was a 62% over run. We already know the USAF has been sitting on the forecast of a Nunn-McCurdy breech since last fall, Whatever is really going on inside F-35, we don't know unless we are working directly on the project, and either in the SPO or LM's corner offices. Do you think there would be a realistic chance of the F-22 coming back into full production? A waiting game or is it done for good? I think there is a narrow window left to restart a F-22 line before the tooling is scrapped. If that happens and a line is restarted, it will be a variant airplane, I guess a F-22C. What would that mean? F-22 w/ more modern electronics? I think it was Strategypage or some similar hazy source that said the first 30 or so F-22s could not get some newer air-to-air upgrade so they would just be used for SEAD. If true that leaves the AF with about ~100 ready at one time b/c of others getting worked on? Talk about a kick in the balls. |
|
Regarding the F-35 in the air superority role, based on this chart it looks like it would eventually replace not only the F-16 and A-10 but also the F-15C/D currently filling that role. Especially if the F-22 production is not increased it would seem by default the F-35 will end up with that task.
Not sure though if this reflects apparent recent plans to keep 178 F-15Cs to suppliment the F-22 numbers. 
|
Its been too damn long since we had a discussion on the F-35!  The JSF will reach production regardless of who
or what is in office. Too many countries are depending on this aircraft to augment and replace their forces. If it was cancelled, the political fallout will be immense and our relations with our allies will be even more damaged than they already are with Obama's foreign policy missteps. Also, we also don't have any new manned designs in the works or at least any that could conceivably reach service in the next couple of decades. For better or worse, we are stuck with the JSF. However, to be fair, its will probably be a pretty decent aircraft. It will be expensive but its the most ambitious military aircraft project at least since the stealth planes or even the TFX program. I am not a military aviation expert, but the F-35 will bring tremendous capability to the battlefield. Is there any other aircraft family that has a supersonic STOL variant, or the capability to carry a metric shit ton of ordanance for a single engine fighter while going toe to toe with the best fighters the world has to offer while still maintaining a somewhat low radar signature? If Lockheed manages to pull this off, I will be very impressed! |
|
Quoted:
Too many countries are depending on this aircraft to augment and replace their forces. If it was cancelled, the political fallout will be immense and our relations with our allies will be even more damaged than they already are with Obama's foreign policy missteps. I don't think our European allies will be able to afford the F35 by the time production reaches full capacity. |
|
Quoted:
Too many international sales to cancel it. It will go forward, I suspect in time it will be a pretty decent aircraft. It's having a rough gestation, but that's not unusual. That's my vote. When it's eventually operational, I think all will be fairly happy with it. Of course that won't be until 2025. 
|