CRON got absolutely smoked today

I believe they’re all going to drop over the next couple weeks.

I agree with you.  Like I said earlier, I do still have faith in BLOZF, but I do not have faith in distribution companies.  I got out while I could and made a small profit, I hope others did in time as well.

I've been following pot incredibly close for about a year. I learned early to sell the news with this stuff.

I told my buddy that they were going to do great after their earnings calls, although this was even better than I was imagining. I also speculated there would be one last big dip before actual legalization. I dont think the institutions and real investors are touching it yet. Which means the only people playing in MJ stocks are guys like us looking for volatility swings, and stoners. Both of which typically have weak hands and short memories, so when it does bad its going to do very bad, and when its doing good its going to do very good.

Anyways, I sold most of my shares in CGC, Cron, Aphria, Cannabix etc near this peak here (a little early but whatever). I kept about 20% just incase I was wrong and it kept climbing. But theres more than a whole month before Canada goes legal, thats plenty of time for the weak hands to forget about these earnings and big news, and for the stocks to fall off again.

When I think the stocks are near their bottom again Ill get back in fully. I suspect itll be mid september but I dont actually know anything. Its just a hunch, but my buddy and his accountant who he bounces everything off think Im a genius now lolol

I actually have no faith in Cannabix and tons of faith in distribution/production. Companies like Canopy are going to be the safe play because they are diversified even within themselves. They grow, distribute, and also manufacture their own vaporizers and I guess soon drinks and stuff, too. I dont personally think the market has any idea just how many people use MJ. While I dont use it myself I know dozens and dozens of people who do. From coworkers to friends and family members. And since its taboo, only other people who are close to them know they use. I personally think the market for MJ is absolutely enormous, far bigger than anybody is acknowledging at least in this current climate.

Im really curious to see what happens in Canada, this is going to be the first time we will see non-skewed numbers on a first world national basis. I dont think this personally, but the guys I know that do smoke say they believe users may even be the majority. I think they're crazy, but we will see soon enough. I'm putting my money where my mouth is. If Im wrong, well Im only 32 and Ill recover.

Ill start getting into CRON sub $7, Aphria sub $8 and CGC when it gets below $30 and keep averaging down from there. I dont think Ill add any to my position on BLOZF. I think once it hits legalization and we start seeing post legalization earnings its going to the fucking moon.

Not necessarily disagreeing with what you said, but here’s my take (at least from the USA, and not Canada.)

The “legal” distribution of MJ comes with associated fees, like applications to do so, registration fees, transportation restrictions, quality control, insurance fees, other fees like paying CEO’s, CFO’s etc…..

The problem with “legal” distribution is that the “illegal distribution” already exists, and it has for decades.  The people who use it have already been using it, and will continue it the manner which they are used to, which is the black market and that has already been established.   It's cheaper, no .gov fees!

MJ with regulation comes with fees which boost the price, and there is already a well established black market with distribution lines ready to undercut the “legal” price to buy it in a “legal store.”  These guys are not just going to close shop and go out of business...they will undercut it and take advantage of it.

IMO, in the end the “legal distributors” will have no choice but to try and compete with the black market, and the black market doesn’t have anywhere near the fees that the legal market has.

As far as saliva vs. breath tests go, who knows.  I know they don’t take saliva tests when a guy gets hit with an alcohol DUI….and there’s a reason for that.  The future is in roadside breath tests, IMO.

That's my .02 anyway...

All very valid points. A couple thoughts to counter them:

Legal distrubutors dont need to supply the whole country, they only need to sell as much as they can produce. A LOT of these companies already have licensing and successful distribution deals with foreign countries like Germany, Australia, Amsterdam etc.

The black market will slowly diminish but Im sure will always exist. More so in the line of people just growing it themselves I would think. But to put that in perspective, you dont need MJ to survive and you DO need food to survive, and how many people grow even their own sources of food? Certainly not a large percentile.

CT doesnt even have a legal place to buy weed as far as I know and I know dozens of people who already have their medical cards. MA has ONE legal store near the CT border that sells MJ and I know a couple people who moved over the border just to get their MA medical card or whatever it is. These are the same people that have been utilizing the black market for decades now.

Im certain the black market will never go away entirely but I think the ease of purchase is going to be the biggest deciding factor. Id imagine on the black market youd never have any idea where your weed came from or what it actually is as far as product quality goes unless youre growing it yourself. Whereas in a regulated store you know exactly what youre getting. Nevermind the fact you have to arrange a meeting with a dealer, risk arrest, risk being robbed, risk being shorted or ripped off etc. Where the alternative is to walk into a store and walk out a happy customer.

Think of the similarities to alcohol. People could make their own, and a few still do. But its easier to just go down to the store and pick it up if youre not a hobby brewer or a moonshiner.

Licensing and fees and business expenses are a moot point to customers. I think with the quantity that these places are able to grow is going to offset those fees. Whereas the black market is stuck using small operations under cover. Legal entities are growing millions of square feet at a time to offset those costs. I actually think legal MJ will drive the cost of illegal MJ down so low you'll see people either close up their illegal operations or attempt to go legal. I think the only real competition to legal MJ will be home growers.

I agree entirely on the saliva vs breath test. The problem I have with Cannabix is I don't think they'll ever bring it to market. Thats a personal opinion based on nothing more than my own speculation, and I still have some 500 shares, but time will tell.

@jl3612

For what it's worth, IL cannabis DUI law was rewritten with saliva testing in mind.

The statutory limits are now 5 nanograms D9-THC content of whole blood or 10 nanograms of "other bodily substance"

Breath is specifically not included.

Also, the IL Democrat governor to be, JB Pritzker, supports recreational cannabis legislation in IL

Good info, from both of you!

I guess I should clarify what I meant when I was talking about saliva vs. breath.  I was more so speaking of roadside devices that could accurately give "presumptive" results for LE on a MJ DUI traffic stop, I do still see the value in saliva, blood, or UA results as an official test result.  Maybe there is a "presumptive" or "field test" saliva device out there for LE that I missed though, I did see something mentioned earlier but got busy and never read the supporting docs...I'm more so saying a roadside breath test for intoxication would be a lot less invasive than providing saliva without a warrant!

Again, all good points in this thread!  Uncharted territory with a lot of unknowns still out there!

One thing I agree with is that you all make really good points and have done research.  It really boils down to gambling on which ones will strike it rich.

I will say that you can't win if you don't play so I chose to stay in the game. I'm older so I don't have the luxury of a lot of time to use as an investment strategy. I have already done that and my retirement is set. Now I'm rolling the dice with some expendable cash to try to make it happen soon!!!

Questions to ponder on the saliva vs breathalyzer debate.
How reliable is saliva at cold temps. (Drager 5000) vs. breath
How long does it take to get the results?
How easy is it for an officer to use AND get a reliable sample?
Does the sample show THC or THC metabolites?
Which is more accurate or what is the accuracy rate for each?
What is the time window that a positive result reflects?  Your saliva tested positive so we know you used in the last 48 hours but it's legal to use in that city and I was not high when I was driving two days later.

How much does the unit cost and how much to maintain and costs of continued use?

The answers are out there if you look.

Disclaimer.  Long on BLOZF.

Just because Canada or the rest of the world makes it legal does not make MJ a good business... yet.

It's not just how much people want it but what it costs the company to deliver it. Do they have the land to grow it? Do they have the equipment to harvest it? Do they have enough people to handle the business? Will they have enough capital to operate? Will taxes, insurance, security eat into cash flow?

The finances will be the true test. The MJ is just another commodity to be manufactured/distributed and sold. The bottom line is will they make money and will they make enough so that it is more attractive than some other investment?

I still believe at some point a tobacco (or beverage) company will absorb them all

Good points and I agree.

However,

1. There's money to be made.
2. BLOZF is a technology company not an mj stock.  It is effected by the mj industry but will be needed regardless of it.

You have to realize that there are already a lot of companies successfully operating and they have been for some time. I'm not saying all of them are or will be successful, but this is not a new industry, there is just soon to be a new (HUGE) market within that industry.

I still say tobacco is a bad bet. They have the most addictive product that literally sells itself and despite that they're a dying industry.

Its funny how you now add (beverage) to your speculation a few weeks after a beverage company invests $4billion into one of the larger companies. Surely not an indicator MJ is good business.

It cant be known for sure, but it is believed that Canadians spent $5billion dollars on cannabis last year, while it was largely illegal. So basically impossible to track accurately. And it is speculated that it will be a $22 billion industry when legalized. How did they get the number $22 billion? I dont know 100% but $22 billion is what Canadians spent on alcohol last year. I suspect itll be closer to $40billion when fully legalized.

Doesn't matter how much anyone spends. It only matters what the costs it takes to deliver legally. Will MJ have the money to deliver this much product? I doubt they are sitting on that much cash today to be able to deliver the demand once Canada goes legal. Therefore they will have to borrow the cash (debt), pay for the land (expenses), more people (expenses), equipment to cultivate (expenses), etc...

This is why I think someone else will have to swoop in. While these are not fledging companies the question is whether they are ready to grown in scale to meet the demand?

If they cant meet the demand that just increases the price for the consumer.

This isn't an industry people can't live without. I get what you're saying, but there is no necessity for a company to over extend itself beyond a safe point to meet the entire markets demand. Growth and progression can take place naturally with little ill effect. Really the only ill effect would be losing customers to competition they couldn't sustain themselves.

If tobacco were making a move on this they'd probably be doing it already. You're seeing companies big companies merging and even the smaller companies have already begun expanding operations. Aphria alone is expected to complete phase 4 of their expansion in January 2019. One million square feet. And they're not the largest, or the second or third or fourth.

I just mean to say the industry is already either well dug in or digging in now. The longer we go without big tobacco making moves, the more of an uphill battle they will face on increasingly well entrenched positions. If tobacco was going to do something, they'd have already been doing it. Or otherwise, they will be over reaching themselves.

I know this was covered ad nauseam earlier in the thread, too. But they are fundamentally different products, from growth to harvest, they share almost no similarities outside of the basic building blocks of life. The believe the only thing we will see from tobacco is an investment in a company like we saw with Constellation Brands. Phillip Morris will partner with Canopy to put its weed in their cigarettes or something like that.

This video shows how they are working on "a number" to determine levels of THC for intoxication.
Police Face New Challanges vid

Here's a linke on the latest updates from Cannabix.

Cannbix update 8/27/18

Until the Federal Government legalizes Pot, it's not investable.  At any point the feds can put a stop to it through banking laws, and you could lose everything in a flash.

What about outside the US? Right now most of the speculation driving the industry is because of the pending legalization in Canada?

I'd love to see them try! Not kidding!

possible medical marijuana expansion coming

So far, all of my money has been made on Aphria (APHQF) with an ROI of ~86%

I have smaller investments in Canopy Growth (CGC) and Cronos Group (CRON), but both are currently sitting around a 65-68% ROI

I missed on TLRY but kind of on purpose (cold feet).

I slightly more than doubled my money on CGC and CRON and sold half my positions on both near their peak two weeks ago.

I'm up 60% on Aphria. I haven't sold any of this because I dont have a big position and they finish a million square foot facility in early 2019. I think they are going to be one of the real deal companies, like CGC, that actually turn into something. Aphria is also yet to partner or have any big news of its own like CGC, so I don't want to be out of it for any amount of time like I sold out of CGC and CRON.

Watching CRON and CGC walk back and salivating waiting for my opportunity to load back up.

My goal is really to go long on CGC and Aphria (actual long) but the hype trading is retarded hardcore right now. There are ads for MJ investing all over Facebook. Its the new "crypto" (read as "hype") market right now which is actually a little scary.

TLRY and CRON have no reason to be rising and falling so fast. I cant imagine it as anything other than huge sums of gamblers pushing their money back and forth. The success and failure arent based on any important metric. Literally just excitement and gambling.

CGC and Aphria are genuinely positioned to do big things in the industry. I think CGC will be an Amazon size business in the weed market some day.

I expect CGC may get as low as $35 in the coming week or two, CRON should get down below $9, maybe even $7. I dont know how high TLRY will go, but Id bet it will deflate same as CRON did/is doing once the hype moves to the next big news event.

We wont see real Canadian legalization earnings results until into November. Plenty of time for the gamblers to get uneasy.

ETA: I see it dropped about 43% from its day high about an hour after you posted this. That is one wild ass stock.

What makes Tilray so good in comparison to their competitors?

I sold mine yesterday thinking the ride was about over.  ??

Anyone using the Robinhood app?

Know if Canopy Rivers and Australis will be offered though it tomorrow?

Very new at this

That’s the only “pot” stock I bought.  I had a feeling it was gonna go bitcoin.  I did pretty OK, but I’m hoping I don’t regret getting out too much more, lol.

I do have some IIPR, but that’s a long term hold.  They’re signing 15 year leases, so I’m hoping for some stability and long term growth on that one.

CNBC and CBS Financial News today:

With the $4B investment by Constellation Brands into Canopy, other companies that are either competitors or compliments are looking at MJ companies.

Phillip Morris, Altria and British Tobacco are all in talks with unnamed MJ companies for either a stake or buyout. Analysts are split whether this is a competitive move or complementary move.

Coca Cola is in talks with Aurora Canabis for either a stake or buyout. Analyst believe it's more likely to be a stake like Constellation did with Canopy. However several also saw it as precursor to a total takeover.

Tilray has a ton of movement and swing due to technical reasons and not performance reasons. Because of the small issue of stocks, large blocks can be easily scooped up my institutional investors and the price is swinging due to institutions buying or selling large blocks while demand is high.

Even big pharmaceutical is looking to MJ and there are more rumors of unnamed pharma talking to unnamed MJ.

There is a ton of movement in the background. Several analysts are talking 5 years horizons due to the lack of traction on US Federal interest in making MJ legal. There is also speculation that MJ owners will have learned from the dotcom boom/bust to take the money and run while the fire is hot, meaning complete sellout of the companies.

Interesting times ahead.

Bought 14.7K shares of MRRCF today at $1.70. Did a lot of research into the company, and compared them with others similarly positioned for the market/legalization with respect to production, contracts in place, EU market (export) etc. We'll see what happens, I'm looking at this as a long term investment. I expect they'll at least do as well as CRON, if not Canopy Growth (CGC).

Or recommend any app/online trading that offers

Canopy rivers
Australis
Charlottes Web?

ETA Signed up with Fidelity.  Still trying to figure out which companies I will have access to for things like an IPO launching.  Only NYSE and OTC?

What are your thoughts on their "shady dealings" or whatever it was that prompted their OSC investigation? I don't remember any of the details as its been a while since I looked at them, all I remember is their reputation was definitely tainted and it seemed like a buy out was imminent. Or, I should say, a buy out seemed like the only way to overcome that mark on their reputation.

I'm long on acbff and up 75%. Long term I think it's one of the better positioned companies out there, and before anyone mentions dilution I know what I'm in for. Wished I wouldn't have sold Tilray at $43 but I wouldn't touch that stock now.

You think like me. I'm on CRON, ACBFF, and APHQF, as well as a few others

BLOZF gonna BLO!

As I read it, the two guys being investigated for insider trading resigned, and the company moved on. the next point of drama is Ben Ward coming onboard, who was under investigation for something (didn't seem to get the gist of it) while he was at Cannabis Corp. However, it also appears that the investigation was dropped. Maricann seems to be moving forward, and based on their lineup contrasted with other similar companies, weighing it all out, I think it's worth the risk. But then, (and not to come off as pompous or like a braggart or anything) I can afford to take the risk on a 25K dollar investment.

I think when things go live, we'll all have an idea on what companies are going to do well or not within the first year or so. At the price Maricann is currently at per share, I'm okay with a little risk there.

Thanks for your input!

I have noticed that several of these cannabis companies have a lot more cash than debt on the books.  Being new to all of this, is the cash to debt ratio a major indicator of company health?  What is a good cash to debt ratio? Is a + cash position better than a -cash?

Bought some Tilray for $100 yesterday and swung it out for $115 today.

Feels good, man.

That Tilray three year chart is stupid!
Could've, would've, should've!

DEA moves some CBD medicines off Schedule 1, a limited expansion of cannabis access

Any thoughts on LHSIF?

Liberty Health Sciences Inc?

Come join our discord , day trade/stock channel , good research , I've been clearing about 70$ to 100 day just messing around.  I got lucky on NBEV and IGC , MJ is also a good long term hold .

https://discordapp.com/invite/5eSr634

I hope everyone had a good day. FWIW, MMNFF, MedMen, just bought PharmaCann, which is one of IL's licensed cannabis producers. JB Pritzker has said he WILL legalize recreational cannabis here. PharmaCann has the potential, has the green houses, the licenses, and the distribution. MedMen could become the Canopy Growth of the US.

I tried to get a well to do family member involved in PharmaCann months ago.

Glad I didn’t sell $PHOT at .010 last week. Nice moves the last couple days. Any Insight as to why?

@memsu

This is the thread you seek.

https://microcapdaily.com/growlife-inc-otcbbphot-soars-after-mention-on-tv-specisal/122059/

Great information. Thanks! Any of you on this? And do you have a sell price in mind?

Anyone using fidelity?

I’m trading very low volume and when I confirm trade it says 4.95 commission but then after it goes through it’s 54.95.

Example

10 shares of green organic Dutchman holdings at 1.38 each.  Plus 4.95 commission.  About an 19 dollar trade.... that turns into spending 54.95 to invest 14 dollars.  ??

Robinhood doesn’t have the stocks I want and Fidelity has fees out the ass for stocks I want.

Who has the lowest fees on weed stocks?

TL:DR I’ll go be poor somewhere else