Posted: 6/30/2016 8:16:44 PM EDT
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The K7RA Solar Update
Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: We've just experienced a solid week with zero sunspots. The average daily sunspot number was down 33.6 points to zero over the reporting period (June 23-29) compared to 33.6 on the previous 7 days. Average daily solar flux during the same 2 weeks dropped from 83.8 to 75.6, the average daily planetary A index increased from 7 to 9, and the mid-latitude A index rose from 6.9 to 9.1. Earlier in this month we saw 4 days with a blank sun, June 3-6. There were no sunspots throughout Field Day weekend. Even so, conditions were good for Field Day; there were no sunspots but no massive solar eruptions or geomagnetic storms either. The last time we saw a blank sun was on July 17, 2014 -- for just 1 day. Prior to that, 2 days in 2011 -- January 27 and on August 14 -- were spot-less. Going back farther, 2010 saw 51 days with a blank sun, with the longest period lasting 13 days. These recent periods of no sunspot activity were a surprise to me, even though we are in a declining half of the solar cycle. I didn't expect that extended periods of no sunspot activity would begin so early following the peak of Solar Cycle 24. The latest prediction has solar flux at 75 on June 30; 80 on July 1-7; 82 on July 8-10; 80 on July 11; 82 on July 12-13; 80 on July 14-17; 78 on July 18-23; 77 on July 24, and 80 on July 25-31. Following this, the prediction shows solar flux rising by 2 points for the first week of August. Predicted planetary A index is 15, 10, 30, 25, and 10 on June 30-July 4; 5 on July 5-6; 8, 10, 10, and 8 on July 7-10; 20, 12, and 5 on July 11-13; 8 on July 14-15; 5 on July 16-18; 15, 12, and 10 on July 19-21, and 5 on July 22-26. Sunspot numbers for June 23 through 29 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7 centimeter flux was 77.5, 75.7, 77.1, 76.6, 75.4, 73.1, and 73.6, with a mean of 75.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 12, 7, 11, 10, 7, and 4, with a mean of 9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 10, 7, 11, 16, 6, and 4 with a mean of 9.1. A week of no sunspots and low SFI.....the only DX I have worked in a while was DU1KA (Philippines). I worked him this morning at 12:49Z on 20m CW. An 8300 mile QSO was kind of nice given the lack of sunspots. 
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Well, at least a DU1, the weird late night 20 M openings and daily 6 M openings have been fun.
On an only slightly related note, we may be heading into a "Maunder Minimum", an extended period of no sunspots. It's doesn't bode well for propagation, but is associated with global temperature decrease, and may explain why the Klimate Kooks are frantically changing the terminology from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change".... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum |
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Currently all I run is 80 meters and am a part of the www.newenglandweathernet.com Yesterday a lady in W. Falmouth, MA was net control. The in close stations were impossible for her so I relayed 20 or so contacts. Today I was net control and conditions were very good with some lightening static.  I have the net every other Saturday if some of you want to jump in.. 3905 @ 0630 eastern. You don't need a roster number to check in. Call, Name, Location and what ever WX data you can provide.. 73 all...FN |
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Quoted:
What kind of propagation and which band would work best during such a period of minimum sunspot activity? 20 and down tends to work regardless of solar activity, although with less than spectacular DX potential. 17 and up are typically toast. Expect a lot of local activity on 40 and lower, and the openings on 20 to be more hit or miss. I've been licensed for 8 years but I've now witnessed two solar minimums... I feel cheated 
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Quoted:
... I feel cheated Even in the minimums you never know what's going to happen from day to day and IF you happen to be in the right place at the right time you can catch some fantastic DX. Today there is some 6M-10M activity being reported between CN-DN-DM-EM with a MUF of about 101 MHz, and many sporadic E clouds probably go unnoticed simply because they are not in the path of many operators who are actually on the air (i.e. if nobody is actually transmitting, you will not know that the band is open). But as last weekend should have confirmed, 20M and 40M can keep you plenty busy most of the time. |