Yep.

Karen is stirring the pot.

Let's get back to work.

Well this post didn't age very well.

It ripened just as it seemed it would.

Quoting for posterity...

Tayous, what are your job responsibilities so we can understand what you are seeing?

Paper or plastic sir?

I thought he was some type of LEO because I remember him looking for suggestions on how to make his own duty belt and associated gear so he didn't have to buy it himself?  Maybe he is retired LEO now but I would hope for more restraint and less out lashing towards our community here from someone who is entrusted with protecting and serving.  

https://www.ar15.com/forums/outdoors/Anyone-here-build-there-own-gear-web-belts/18-690767/

We had people over today.

Muh quarantine.

So, has your perspective changed with time?

Has the concept of exponential growth finally sunk in?

The first quote was posted on 3/18 with a death count of 150.  

The US passed 10,000 dead 19 days later, on 4/6.

In the following 2 weeks, bringing us current to today 4/20, we added 30,000 more. For a total of just over 40,000 in right around 33 days.

Given what has happened in that time span, I feel than NONE of my reaction to this was overdone, or unwarranted.  I oddly feel like I did the right things at the right time.

Yeah, someone said that if we overreact and take unnecessary measures right now, history will soon forget about it. But if we underreact and millions die, history will never forgive that lack of leadership.

Per arfcom.
Your a doomer or a flubro.
No middle road of sensible preparation,  its feeding frenzy or denial.
Time will tell. As most things.
I giggle at the " its  a flu...30k A YEAR dead...nothing to worry about "
Yet 4 months in we are that far into it with covid 19....4 months from now, 8 months from now..will it still be " like the flu. .."
We will see..

Thanks for letting us know.   Attached File

But I like the middle of the road, stay informed don't jump to any conclusions and pilot the ship steady as she goes!!!  

Im more of a lt.dan strapped to the mast type at times....
Lol.

But like most things...gotta go with the flow.

COME ON!!!  YOU CALL THIS A STORM? BLOW, YOU SON OF A BITCH! BLOW!

Plz dont send me the re-education facility....

I'm still in the third camp; the skeptic camp.  I'm not denying the lethality of this pandemic, but there are several reports that deaths attributed to COVID-19 are not consistent and discount more lethal underlying conditions that would have caused death with or without the virus; yet COVID-19 is attributed as the cause of death only from symptoms, not verified testing (that came directly from CDC).  Additionally, "quarantine" as a countermeasure is proving to be less effective as studies come out of California where the death rate is much lower than NY, yet they implemented quarantine measure two days after NY...and now they are finding a larger percentage of the population with the antibodies which points to a very early and undetected outbreak much earlier than realized.  Some mortality rates are pointing to 0.1%; very similar to the flu.  I think the danger of this virus is how long it can persist on surfaces and in vapor.  

I know many are making projections, predictions, and extrapolations, but all the "expert" models have been grossly wrong and I still think the data is inaccurate and studies are coming out to highlight that, or at least with contradictory data.

So, despite my ongoing skepticism, I continue to see a ton of lessons-learned as we will have future pandemics, some less frightening and some far more lethal.

ROCK6

I have not been to the grocery in about a week or so. Just went today. HOLY SHIT.  Everyone had masks on. Some with goggles. Last time maybe 3 or 4 had masks. Now everyone but 3 or 4 had them. People are freaking the fuck out.

Did you ever consider some folks don't want to become infected with this virus right now???

That some are at greater risk than others?

Exactly my logic, and also many of the folks around me agree.  Most feel they're just doing their part, and being safe.

I live in a relatively low populated city 200 miles north of Detroit, not a lot of Covid here at all. I wear a mask in the grocery store, both because I'm an asthmatic smoker, also because I don't want to be an unaware carrier if I can avoid it.  I consider it to be smart, curteous, and safe.

This is the reason I built a supply of masks over the last decade

Are there any intelligent people that AREN'T wearing masks in public?

Wearing a mask is no sign of intelligence, that's simply what you're being told.  While masks have their place, the biggest threat has been through the eyes (by suspended vapor), and hands to the face, mouth, nose, and eyes.  The mask is best for those that may already have symptoms and to keep THEM from spreading it; the common N95 or improvised cloth masks are not very effective protecting one from getting this virus.  

I trust my immune system and my personal health.  I almost wish to just get it and develop the antibodies and kind of wish I had it these past couple weeks while I've been home...although I won't be out licking door knobs and toilet seats to prove anything

If anything, I think the increased focus on personal hygiene and simply washing your damn hands after using a bathroom is a big bonus.  I don't like people in my personal space, so that's another bonus of this "social distancing".  Seeing people opening cough and sneeze without covering up has always pissed me off, maybe this will finally make people a little more conscious of being a vector for germs and viruses.

Like I said, there are a lot of positives, but many of these mitigating strategies are not very effective; however, social engineering has proved to be extremely effective on a compliant population...again, I'm just more of an open-minded skeptic than blindly believing one-sided data, all the "models" proven wrong, bureaucratic "experts", and MSM, and politicians.  I will concede, this is now a battle of personal safety and personal liberties...I'll just remain skeptical until more data from other sources provides a clearer picture to this whole pandemic fiasco.

ROCK6

OP hasn't aged well.

When it came time.....he chose poorly, and yelled it like gospel.

Rather than reacting in a sensible way, he chose to believe a line of shit and tell people they were wrong, rather than what bit of fact there was.  In other situations that could have been bad.

Regardless of whatever opinion you have on the virus itself, right from the onset we all should have seen the shitstorm that was heading our way.  

I never did fear the covid like some, not that I blew it off.  But you could easily see supply shortages coming, unemployment, potential lockdowns, things of that nature, and those still have me more concerned than the virus.

I got a similar reaction to a thread I started to discuss the lockdowns as they were happening.....basically treated like a paranoid fool.

Then most of the country got locked down.

When shit is just starting isn't the time to ignore possibilities, no matter how impossible you think they are.

Agreed.  I think there will be never ending debates and arguments over the threat and danger of this virus, but regardless of opinions or beliefs, the fallout impacted everyone.  It's a good reminder to keep your intel-ears open on a global scale as much as domestic.  Don't wait for politicians to declare emergencies...make your own decision matrix and take action before the masses.  Again, lots of lessons to be learned (and not forgotten).

ROCK6

Exactly.  And only an idiot (or a sociopath) is out without a mask right now.


As for only doing it because you're told, that's lunacy.  We're doing it because it's the best option available to everyone right now.  

You and I have never seen a virus.  We're trusting other people to relay accurate information via textbooks, websites, news organizations, press briefings and scientific reports.  You and I have never seen a lot of things that we trust to be true.  There's a difference between trusting tons of evidence and scientific information that says the Earth is a sphere and just accepting by blind faith that it is.  Is it possible that things we "know" to be true will be disproven?  Yes.  Every day in the scientific community, there are people that are doing nothing but trying to disprove something.  That's what makes science superior to blind faith (and I'm not talking about religious/spiritual topics, although, well, that's another discussion).

Only if you have blind faith that science is never politicized, biased, or research isn't tainted through monetary or other ulterior motives...science is just as fallible as blind faith.

I'm not saying that wearing a mask isn't a prudent measure, but there are a lot of people who think it's a panacea to protection, or they think it's some type of fashion statement.  Most are clueless as to the purpose and aspects of various rated masks...yet they forget about exposure to their eyes or they wear the same mask and gloves every day or they wear them under their nose.  Sorry, but there are simply a lot of idiots with masks out there right now that don't know what they're for, how to use them, never clean them and they think they're protected or protecting others.  It's a fallacy from that perspective.

Where was all the concern last year when we had almost 400,000 patients hospitalized from the flu?  What about the 800,000 from the previous year?  Again, all this social distancing and preventative measures were never pushed or practiced yet we have simply accepted a certain mortality rate for the flu; we'll end up doing the same with COVID-19.  We have less than 100,000 hospitalized and over 90% of those have at least one serious underlying condition.  The only idiots are those who are knowingly susceptible yet still out and about when there are far easier mitigating strategies. There are already reports that Chinese agents have hyped this virus to induce panic...again...distortion, inaccurate models, incomplete data, etc.  I'm a skeptic.  I'll wear a mask where directed, but it's less effective than just washing your hands.

ROCK6

Rock

Somewhere above you mention you want to get this and 'get it over with'.

A health, active friend of mine got it -> "that was absolutely the sickest I have been in my life".

I'll pass and wait for the vaccine.....


Social distancing -

In my teens and early 20's I spent a ton of time bumming the Sierra with a backpack - mostly solo. I noticed the only time I got sick was after interacting people that were sick. For YEARS I have been doing things that people would give funny looks about, like opening public doors by pushing on the top of door frame (I'm tall). For 40 yrs, my wife and I have not worn shoes in our house. We have "town clothes" that are changed immediately after getting home. We live on a hobby ranch with livestock and are FAR FAR from being neat or clean freaks. Outside dirt does not bother us.....

I can not remember being sick with a cold or flu.

YMMV

Fear locks up the brain.  While Covid is dangerous, take safety precautions (gloves, mask, goggles), plenty of Vit C and continue with life.  Living in fear is not living at all.

Just so you know, you can, and should, do both.



I do the same thing with doors.  On many doors you can see a layer of grime built up where people normally push on doors (bathroom doors, particularly).

I hope to one day start to do the other things you mention.  Very sensible.


Quoted for truth.

No, I understand.  While the mortality rate continues to fluctuate but is relatively high, what we are not hearing is that 98% of the people who contract COVID-19 recover 100%.  The top 10 world virologist from Sweden has an absolutely 180% point of view: no need for social distancing, protect the most vulnerable in the population, but don't close their country down...he's a believer in "herd-immunity".  Social distancing and all the other mitigating strategies are not to affect the mortality rate, it was meant to slow the spread and decrease the burden on our hospitals...there have been dozens of emergency hospitals set up and not even used; they're not "over-whelmed" except in a couple locations.  His belief is that you won't stop the spread and delaying it with impact on an economy are counterproductive for the long term.  Furthermore this same virologist was beside himself that the unverified study and model used for all the policy measures we've taken has not been peer reviewed...that's not saying COVID-19 isn't a dangerous viral pandemic, but policies were made from a single (and now proven inaccurate) model and study that was never published with a peer review.  That is more dangerous than the virus itself and shows that "science" and inaccurate data can be manipulated for government policies.

I'm kind of the opposite.  30-second rule for food on the ground, spent time in third-world countries in close proximity to locals; while I maintain good hygiene I haven't been overly anal about it.  My wife teaches at a petri-dish / middle school and she is likely always exposed. Neither of us have been sick in years unless it's a minor fever and flu-like symptoms for about 12-24 hours.  

My only beef isn't about taking this viral epidemic serious on a personal level, but pushing countermeasures that haven't proven very effective, and I'll include social distancing (explain the difference between CA and NY and a world-leading virologists opinion), and shutting businesses down which I think was absolutely unnecessary.  Add in we have the general population not using PPE properly but believing they are protected.  I do think reinforcing basic (again, common-sense) countermeasures such as not openly coughing, sneezing, getting into people's personal space, washing hands with soap often when working in an populated environment or bathroom, etc. are all positives.  Again, destroying our economy is nonsensical and I think time will show that to be the case...whereas those most at risk already have significant, underlying health problems, the underlying condition to the mortality of our economy has been the advice of "experts" who continue to be wrong and bureaucratical policies based on inaccurate models...not data, models. That will ruffle feathers...I'll just remain skeptical.

ROCK6

Well, some people were predicting that the death rate would keep on doubling every 4 days, that would put us at around 75,000 dead a day by now.

How much of it is because of the shutdowns and how much, if any, is because it’s not as bad as initially predicted?

Who predicted that?  Link?

I think that 1.35 growth has been the line used as the tipping point for uncontrolled spread.  I've never heard anybody predicting a death rate like that.  And it's important to think of rates as they actually are.  Days that stay below a particular rate will affect future growth.  Think of it like interest on a loan.  If you pay it off early, it's not nearly as costly as if you pay the bare minimum payment.  Ignore it and put off paying it back and it could cost you many, many times what you borrowed.

When I started reacting to this whole thing, there really wasn't a death rate prediction.  

I wasn't gonna wait around to find out either.  That could be a good way to get dead.

It wasn't doubling every four days, some models predicted doubling every six days (reported on 10 March)



Other initial predictions were extremely high:





Now, for the doomsayer "experts", they can't lose.  They over-estimate death tolls, and then support policies to mitigate and if the death tolls are vastly lower, they'll say their policy measures were a success...again my skepticism kicks in as Ferguson's model was the foundation for government policies and there was no peer review.  None of the initial models were remotely accurate.  Even the models where "mitigating strategies" were added into the calculation still are very far off.

My skepticism is more on government policy decisions and not specifically about the virus.  I just don't think the countermeasures are creating a 2-4 million difference in deaths and I don't think the exaggerated hype should have led to an national economic shutdown.  None of that adds up.  Thousands of people die every day from pneumonia, heart failure conditions, organ failure, etc...attributing those natural mortality rates just to COVID-19 because they exhibited symptoms (again, many were not tested but attributed to death by COVID-19, admitted to by Brix), or even conducting autopsies to identify the actual cause of death for those even testing positive for COVID-19.  Secondly, we have not been testing those who may be asymptomatic and the low denominator will always make the death rate seem much higher.  Lastly, little is said about those who have contracted the virus and fully recovered (more than 98%), and while it's reported that the predominant factor of those susceptible are older and with one or more underlying health conditions is ignored when people throw out death rates and predictions.  When all this is said and done, it may very well be viewed as slightly worse than a bad flu season (such as the 2018 season where more than 800,000 died and that's with a flu vaccine), which typically lasts about five months and we are now going into month three of this viral outbreak.

ROCK6

The experience in Sweden seems to be showing that shutting things down doesn't make that much difference compared to less extreme
voluntary measures.

The risk is heavily weighted to those over 60, so it seems reasonable to try and isolate that population while letting younger
healthy people go about their business.

On the other hand, 0.15% of the entire population of New York State is already dead from this (largely weighted towards the very old of course),
so unless everyone in the state is infected already, the  average infection fatality rate is at least a couple of times higher than that. You can argue about the counting of deaths, but it's just as likely they are being undercounted as over counted, when you read about the blood clotting issues causing stroke and heart attacks.

My guess is its an average of 0.5%, roughly 5-10x worse than the seasonal flu. And unlike the 1918 flu, which killed young healthy adults the most, covid-19 seems to be much worse for the elderly, so that is where we should be expending effort to shield them, i.e, testing
for caregivers, good PPE, social distancing, delivering their food, etc.

My understanding is that they've got many more confirmed cases and deaths than their neighboring countries, but if immunity turns out to be a thing with this virus (it isn't always), then their strategy will pay off.

Unfortunately, with the stupidity of American mobs, and the unscientific methods our nation's leaders are pushing, I don't think their method of dealing with the coronavirus will work in our country.

Yes you are stirring
the pot!! How many did you read that the CDC f'ched up and contaminated several thousand of test?!

This comes from morticians and coroners who are told to say colvin 19 is the death! Yet it's not! It's all about Money!!!

It's a huge overreaction.

Not only was it not an overreaction, it was the only decision they could have made.  In the moment, decisions are made with the information at hand.  In other words, you can only “go with what you know”.  And what did they know at the time?  Not the wild rumors, but the facts.  They knew there was a novel virus that was highly contagious.  They knew that there was a lethal component to it, although not the scope of the lethality.  They knew the Chinese were lying about it, talking down the seriousness to the rest of the world while taking unprecedented steps internally.  

A decision needed to be made.  They were never going to get it just right, there were too many variables and, in this case, too many unknown’s.  That means they really only had two choices, do too little or do too much.  Given that one of the few facts they had was that the virus was potentially lethal, the choice was made for them.

It wasn’t an overreaction.  They needed to buy time to better understand what they were dealing with and they needed to slow the spread so that our medical facilities weren’t overwhelmed (flatten the curve).  The shutdown accomplished both of those goals.  No, it wasn’t perfect.  It never will be.  

I don't just agree with this, but so does EVERY reasonable person I know.

You’re right. I don’t like restrictions either but when you are dealing with an unknown situation leaders MAKE DECISIONS. Decisions made with lack of knowledge are rarely perfect. Then, as more information becomes known, new decisions have to get made.

It’s easy to look at something with hindsight and criticize. It’s hard to be the one who gets to make the decision and have to deal with the criticism of idiots. I’d MUCH rather have leaders who make decisions and get it wrong occasionally than to have “leaders” who won’t commit to making a decision at all for fear of making the wrong decision.

This is precisely correct.  

Another way to look at it is this:  Better to do too much and save lives, than to do too little and find out that the deadliest pandemic in history just wiped out our nation.   (I wish this logic would be applied to climate change and the green movement: what's the worst case scenario for going green?  It turns out to not be caused by humans, and we leave a beautiful, less-polluted world to future generations?  Anyway, that's another discussion.)

Things are still playing out, but I suspect that if history looks back on these pandemic hoax people at all, it will be to mock them as mental midgets.

So fanatical doomers and climate change people overlap? Who'd a thought? Oh yeah, both use complete bullshit models based in nothing and then move the goalpost later.

Are you trying to be funny?

It's sadly funny, but not a single climate change model (the Russian model was the closest...go figure) has been accurate in the past 50 years and every model of this pandemic have been widely inaccurate.  Models have and will continue to be politically and financially influenced.  All models are over-predictions which influence policies...they have become biased science, just like political polls.  



You'll find the same findings with the COVID 19 models...you can buy the hype, just buy it at your own risk...

ROCK6

My point is that the risk is horrible:  If all the models are completely wrong, we'll have a cleaner planet for our descendants.  Oh, noes!