User Panel
Quoted:
Here is a link to an electronics manufacturing forum thread that has some good insight and info. https://www.eevblog.com/forum/manufacture/ I think that what is going on with manufacturers is significant, as *all* electronics are either directly sourced from (manufactured and assembled) in China, or at least the vast majority of components come from China. If this virus gets out of hand over there, the ripple effects on goods availability could be, shall we say, interesting. A quote from that link by a poster that I think is fair and accurate: View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Here is a link to an electronics manufacturing forum thread that has some good insight and info. https://www.eevblog.com/forum/manufacture/ I think that what is going on with manufacturers is significant, as *all* electronics are either directly sourced from (manufactured and assembled) in China, or at least the vast majority of components come from China. If this virus gets out of hand over there, the ripple effects on goods availability could be, shall we say, interesting. A quote from that link by a poster that I think is fair and accurate: I see the globalized economy like a long train of nations with two locomotives: In the front, there is the US pulling the train, with most of the world's demand (by a single country, one can argue that the whole EU is a larger market). On the rear, there is another locomotive, China, pushing the world's supply. Either one of those locomotives stops, and the whole train (the whole world) will stop. If not completely, at least to a crawl. The analogy also isnt accurate as China only supplies about 15% of our imports. So it more like a single car on a 10 car train slows down so the engine has to work a little harder. It wont stop the whole train. |
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I had a prototype PCB order in China as well. Cancelled it (for store credit, I'll use it later) and switched to a South Korean manufacturer. Price was about the same per board, but I had to order twice as many (20) at a time. Higher quality boards though, so maybe a net positive as they *should* be production ready (final confirming prototype). I had the order with PCBWay (sounds like you used JLC?), and they are 500 miles from Wuhan. They are closed until the 10th, maybe longer. The backlog will be significant. View Quote Yes, JLC. JLC is in Shenzen and 550 miles by air from Wuhan as well. I think the big news is that the dates are sliding out and there's outright closures now. DHL stopping business is also huge, and I've not seen any real coverage about that. Which SK supplier? I got US quotes and they're all 10 times or more the price as China. |
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Quoted: Demand issues are far larger then supply issues. Supply issues tend to be solved quickly (think a quarter or two). Yes there will be hurt but I think you guys are making a much bigger deal out of a supply issue then it is. The analogy also isnt accurate as China only supplies about 15% of our imports. So it more like a single car on a 10 car train slows down so the engine has to work a little harder. It wont stop the whole train. View Quote I don't think supply is a huge issue yet, but it's headed that way. A couple weeks can be managed, but a month or more and it's a big deal. The timing of this aligning with chinese new year was incredibly lucky, as most in industry already plan for short-term supply shut down during CNY. ETA: This just came across a news site I follow: Hyundai, Kia suspend some production lines amid coronavirus-triggered crunch |
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Quoted: Your posting is why I mentioned it and did the update last week -- I figured it was worth updating again given how much worse the situation has become. Yes, JLC. JLC is in Shenzen and 550 miles by air from Wuhan as well. I think the big news is that the dates are sliding out and there's outright closures now. DHL stopping business is also huge, and I've not seen any real coverage about that. Which SK supplier? I got US quotes and they're all 10 times or more the price as China. View Quote I'm not sure how their prices are for smaller/simpler boards, mine is 150mmx200mm, 4 layer with 2 oz copper layers. |
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Quoted: The issue isn't the percentage of imports, it's the critical path. You can build something (a plane for example) where 99% of the parts are sourced elsewhere but a critical component is sourced from China -- no part, no plane. Obviously one will try to source that elsewhere, and if it takes two quarters to do that, the impacts are huge. I don't think supply is a huge issue yet, but it's headed that way. A couple weeks can be managed, but a month or more and it's a big deal. The timing of this aligning with chinese new year was incredibly lucky, as most in industry already plan for short-term supply shut down during CNY. View Quote Imagine this: You are building cars. Cars have computers. Computers have components. Your PCB manufacturer (auto manufacturers job that out) has designed a started a production line based on a set BOM (Bill Of Materials) with very specific part numbers. Sure, they can handle some glitches in component supply (willing to bet 99% of the PCBs come from China as well) because they have stock, but the buffer is only so big. You ever see how top tier PnP machines eat through a roll of components?! Now all of a sudden, certain components are unavailable. Those in the industry will be aware of availability issues of key components that use key rare earth materials, like tantalum caps. Then you get "industrial panic". If I had the money, as soon as this virus started looking bad, I'd be making bulk orders of components to keep my operations going. You then have a run on parts houses like Mouser and Digi-Key, drying up the domestic stockpile. But those big manufacturers get their shit directly from China, so it all depends on if their boat left port before they were shut down. Anyway, all of this means that you are missing those tant caps that are crucial to your design. If your PCB uses 3000 components, and you don't have 1, you are shut down, and the "lean manufacturing" manufacturers that use your electronics can't finish their product. So they are shut down. So it ALL depends on how much inventory ALL the companies have when this particular S hit the made-in-China F, and the weakest link breaks the chain. Just switch components you say? Hold on there cowboy. Maybe you can, maybe you can't. Is it a simple passive like a resistor or ceramic cap in a non-certified PCB? Then sure, grab one of the same specs that you can find and keep going, eat the additional cost. BUT, you so much as switch LED color in a PCB that is FCC "approved" (think anything WiFi) and they will slap your peepee for that, because you didn't re-submit your revision for approval. Is it a specialty or specially rated component that may even be custom manufactured for you or otherwise not readily available through multiple manufacturers/distributors ? Then you may be SOL. Yes, this happening over CNY was very fortunate as everybody was ready and stocked up. The 2 questions of note: How long will China be down, how much did businesses stockpile? And then: Do those two factors end with a favorable result? And that is just for PCB stuff, what I work with. The same is anything that China makes as either full products, sub-assemblies, or bare components such as refined lead for boolits . |
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Quoted: ETA: This just came across a news site I follow: Hyundai, Kia suspend some production lines amid coronavirus-triggered crunch View Quote |
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Regardless on HOW disrupted the supply chain gets, the bottom line is many if not most companies are not going to be in a position to INCREASE profits, so they will not meet expectations and the markets are going to go down.
How far down and for how long is anybody's guess, but for most sectors it is not a business environment better than last quarter. |
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the high end PCB supply was already tenuous due to Typhoon Hagibis affecting Panasonic's Japan plant, the result of which all but cut off the availability of Megtron6 and 7. these are staples of the networking industry. now we see leadtimes at practically every PCB house in china extended for one of three reasons: 1) they don't have their staff back yet, 2) they are anticipating shortage of raw materials because those sub-suppliers don't have their staff back, and 3) the vendors that are geographically disparate from the loci of the virus are getting overbooked.
my company is looking at every aspect of the supply chain and even with all that attention i'm sure there will be surprises -- some critical part is going to be unavailable simply because the plant that makes the epoxy that houses the die has half their staff out. we are seeing it already with sheet metal parts out of china, it's the little things that are going to kill you. incidentally while some china businesses have their staff back now, a lot of "state-level" government employees continue to be told to stay home until ~Feb 9. this, in turn, is making it very difficult to get any sort of import/export paperwork done and materials shipped, much less expedited. |
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We started the thread a month ago when they were only reporting 56 infected. We are now up to about 30,000 infected.
Good summary page https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/4fdc0d03d3a34aa485de1fb0d2650ee0 Infectious disease experts do not yet know exactly how contagious or deadly the Wuhan coronavirus is. Compared to SARS and MERS, the Wuhan coronavirus has spread strikingly fast: While the MERS outbreak took about two and a half years to infect 1,000 people, and SARS took roughly four months, the novel coronavirus reached that figure in just 48 days.
However, current figures indicate that the Wuhan coronavirus is significantly less deadly than its relatives. Although the current outbreak has led to over 300 deaths, mostly in China, its fatality rate is around 2 percent; in comparison, the fatality rate for SARS was around 10 percent, and the rate for MERS was around 35 percent. Experts believe that the Wuhan coronavirus is most contagious during its incubation period, which lasts up to two weeks. The virus can be transmitted between humans before symptoms appear, rendering detection and containment much more difficult. View Quote |
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Chinese company Tancent may have leaked possible true numbers of coronavirus casualties in China.
I would take it with a grain of salt, but the numbers could be MUCH higher than the offical Chinese reporting. If the 'leaked' numbers are correct... ~154k infected ~25k deaed |
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https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044
This link was posted in the Virus Thread. Reading thru it now, and it may provide some treatment answers. Quote from one of the sections: Most patients received antiviral therapy (oseltamivir, 124 [89.9%]), and many received antibacterial therapy (moxifloxacin, 89 [64.4%]; ceftriaxone, 34 [24.6%]; azithromycin, 25 [18.1%]) and glucocorticoid therapy (62 [44.9%]). Thirty-six patients (26.1%) were transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) because of complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (22 [61.1%]), arrhythmia (16 [44.4%]), and shock (11 [30.6%]). The median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days. Patients treated in the ICU (n?=?36), compared with patients not treated in the ICU (n?=?102), were older (median age, 66 years vs 51 years), were more likely to have underlying comorbidities (26 [72.2%] vs 38 [37.3%]), and were more likely to have dyspnea (23 [63.9%] vs 20 [19.6%]), and anorexia (24 [66.7%] vs 31 [30.4%]). Of the 36 cases in the ICU, 4 (11.1%) received high-flow oxygen and 15 (44.4%) received noninvasive ventilation. Invasive mechanical ventilation was required in 17 patients (47.2%), 4 of whom received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as rescue therapy. A total of 13 patients received vasopressors, and 2 patients received kidney replacement therapy. |
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https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044 This link was posted in the Virus Thread. Reading thru it now, and it may provide some treatment answers. Quote from one of the sections: Most patients received antiviral therapy (oseltamivir, 124 [89.9%]), and many received antibacterial therapy (moxifloxacin, 89 [64.4%]; ceftriaxone, 34 [24.6%]; azithromycin, 25 [18.1%]) and glucocorticoid therapy (62 [44.9%]). Thirty-six patients (26.1%) were transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) because of complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (22 [61.1%]), arrhythmia (16 [44.4%]), and shock (11 [30.6%]). The median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days. Patients treated in the ICU (n?=?36), compared with patients not treated in the ICU (n?=?102), were older (median age, 66 years vs 51 years), were more likely to have underlying comorbidities (26 [72.2%] vs 38 [37.3%]), and were more likely to have dyspnea (23 [63.9%] vs 20 [19.6%]), and anorexia (24 [66.7%] vs 31 [30.4%]). Of the 36 cases in the ICU, 4 (11.1%) received high-flow oxygen and 15 (44.4%) received noninvasive ventilation. Invasive mechanical ventilation was required in 17 patients (47.2%), 4 of whom received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as rescue therapy. A total of 13 patients received vasopressors, and 2 patients received kidney replacement therapy. View Quote |
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Chinese company Tancent may have leaked possible true numbers of coronavirus casualties in China. I would take it with a grain of salt, but the numbers could be MUCH higher than the offical Chinese reporting. If the 'leaked' numbers are correct... ~154k infected ~25k deaed View Quote Professor Neil Ferguson on the current 2019-nCoV coronavirus outbreak (05-02-2020) |
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Is it OK with you guys if I point the prep questions in Massive GD Thread here (Noting it is a tech forum with stricter rules)?
Have a Stats Thread in GD already, Then the huge Main Kung Flu thread. I figure I can link to this one for prep questions. Is that good? Also hello, haven't talked to you guys in a while! |
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Quoted:
Is it OK with you guys if I point the prep questions in Massive GD Thread here (Noting it is a tech forum with stricter rules)? Have a Stats Thread in GD already, Then the huge Main Kung Flu thread. I figure I can link to this one for prep questions. Is that good? Also hello, haven't talked to you guys in a while! View Quote |
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Quoted:
Is it OK with you guys if I point the prep questions in Massive GD Thread here (Noting it is a tech forum with stricter rules)? @Brass I'll go ahead and start it, and if not appropriate, Mods, please alter or delete. |
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New Research Suggests The Coronavirus May Be Far Worse Than We Thought |
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Not-so-hypothetical question: A person is planning to fly from Taiwan to visit family. Someone from that family is coming to visit us within two weeks from then. Thoughts, strategies, concerns?
We, those of us in the States, are approaching the need to make decisions on social interactions. I’ve been watching this from the beginning and despite the utter insanity happening in China and surround countries, we haven’t seen much of anything to worry about in the US. Yes, I’m aware they are suppressing information even here. |
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Not-so-hypothetical question: A person is planning to fly from Taiwan to visit family. Someone from that family is coming to visit us within two weeks from then. Thoughts, strategies, concerns? We, those of us in the States, are approaching the need to make decisions on social interactions. I’ve been watching this from the beginning and despite the utter insanity happening in China and surround countries, we haven’t seen much of anything to worry about in the US. Yes, I’m aware they are suppressing information even here. View Quote |
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PSA: Posted here instead of in the MegaThread in GD-
Just got back from CostCo. Fairly light traffic in store. Got a few items, thought I'd list for you.
They had pallets and pallets of everything. No one seemed to care about these items. I also stopped at the Dollar Store this morning. All they had were really small bottles of Isopropyl and Hydrogen Peroxide and Hand Sanitizer. Costco was a much better deal, and quantities I could use. |
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PSA: Posted here instead of in the MegaThread in GD- Just got back from CostCo. Fairly light traffic in store. Got a few items, thought I'd list for you.
They had pallets and pallets of everything. No one seemed to care about these items. I also stopped at the Dollar Store this morning. All they had were really small bottles of Isopropyl and Hydrogen Peroxide and Hand Sanitizer. Costco was a much better deal, and quantities I could use. View Quote I have been doing this for years!! the bad thing is some of this we did to our selves by over doing antibiotics for every cold... now there are bugs from heck that we have no defense from.. |
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buy at Costco or sams club the large bottles and buy a couple of the small travel size bottles for carry and refill them from the large jugs! I have been doing this for years!! the bad thing is some of this we did to our selves by over doing antibiotics for every cold... now there are bugs from heck that we have no defense from.. View Quote |
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While your statement isn't incorrect, Coronavirus is a virus and anitbiotics don't do anything to it. Yes, maybe antibiotics could have helped with secondary infections, but what's done is done. View Quote |
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I've been thinking about foods preps much more than PPE preps.
I'm actually not going crazy trying to figure out PPE...I have the same stash of Tyvek stuff and n95's that I've had for many years...always kept a healthy cache of that kinda thing. Still, if things are so bad that going out in public is going to require suiting up....I just wont go out into public areas. Thing is....the whole supply chain thing gets me concerned. I always had my usual MREs and freeze dried stuff...but with something imminent I am thinking more along the lines of dry goods (rice, beans, etc) and some canned stuff (soups, chili, etc) I figure if things fizzle out...I'll make up some soups and casseroles and go through stuff over the next few seasons. And if things get hot, I can get weeks/months of food with very little storage space. Frankly...my bigger concern is water...but I dont have a realistic solution for that yet. |
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While your statement isn't incorrect, Coronavirus is a virus and anitbiotics don't do anything to it. Yes, maybe antibiotics could have helped with secondary infections, but what's done is done. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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buy at Costco or sams club the large bottles and buy a couple of the small travel size bottles for carry and refill them from the large jugs! I have been doing this for years!! the bad thing is some of this we did to our selves by over doing antibiotics for every cold... now there are bugs from heck that we have no defense from.. |
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Quoted: Frankly...my bigger concern is water...but I dont have a realistic solution for that yet. View Quote A more expensive option are water bricks. I ordered a bunch, but they are solid. You can order screw-on spigots for them. The most cost-effective option will be drums. |
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I've been thinking about foods preps much more than PPE preps. I'm actually not going crazy trying to figure out PPE...I have the same stash of Tyvek stuff and n95's that I've had for many years...always kept a healthy cache of that kinda thing. Still, if things are so bad that going out in public is going to require suiting up....I just wont go out into public areas. Thing is....the whole supply chain thing gets me concerned. I always had my usual MREs and freeze dried stuff...but with something imminent I am thinking more along the lines of dry goods (rice, beans, etc) and some canned stuff (soups, chili, etc) I figure if things fizzle out...I'll make up some soups and casseroles and go through stuff over the next few seasons. And if things get hot, I can get weeks/months of food with very little storage space. Frankly...my bigger concern is water...but I dont have a realistic solution for that yet. View Quote they are much easier to move than 50 gallon drums and 10 are about the same price as a new 50 gallon drum |
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>Frankly...my bigger concern is water...but I dont have a realistic solution for that yet.
Do you have a bathtub? If so buy one of these. https://www.amazon.com/WaterBOB-Emergency-Container-Drinking-Hurricane/dp/B001AXLUX2/ref=pd_sbs_229_t_0/131-1159683-6701861?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=B001AXLUX2&pd_rd_r=c46a238a-6ec8-40c9-86a0-76830e0e89b3&pd_rd_w=S5NA7&pd_rd_wg=9RYjy&pf_rd_p=5cfcfe89-300f-47d2-b1ad-a4e27203a02a&pf_rd_r=1KHEQD4WNQPSP2NGVBAT&psc=1&refRID=1KHEQD4WNQPSP2NGVBAT WaterBob: Emergency Bathtub Drinking Water Container 8nBAIT |
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Got my PCBs from South Korea today. Went right into the reflow oven to sanitize.
I just got shipping notification (with movement via DHL) that my solder paste stencils from PCBWay in China shipped out. Shipping time is scheduled for about 9 calendar days. They are far too big to sterilize in my reflow oven, and I doubt the Mrs will let me put them in the kitchen oven, so I guess IPA to wipe them down well. |
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A new study from Los Alamos Lab link provides some pretty alarming numbers. The study is pre-peer reviewed. Here's the abstract:
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus. View Quote Initial R0 was 2.2-2.7, they estimate it to be 4.7-6.6. The doubling of the number of infections occurs every 2.4 days. China's extreme lockdown has had an effect, but not enough. The lockdown reduced the R0 from 4.7-6.6 to 2.3-3.0. So a complete and utter shutdown did not fix the problem. The situation on the Princess Cruises' Diamond Princess cruise ship, docked in Japan, is turning into a complete cluster. 3700 people on board. 218 confirmed cases w/ at least 20 Americans, the total count went up 44 since yesterday. They have not even tested all of the people, the last count I read was about 400 people tested. |
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DigiKey reporting nearly every supplier is "Impacted by extension of Chinese New Year"
https://www.digikey.ca/en/help/coronavirus |
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Sadly I believe our own press reports as much as I believe the Chinese state run media.
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Quoted:
It was a pretty moderated response. Had this been GD, the response likely would have been, "f*ckin' stupid". View Quote I stand by my statement. Look at the facts. all information is coming from China state run news directly to our state run news. Neither is credible China will not allow the CDC experts to help. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/cdc-coronavirus-china.html 15 cases in the US and it appears it doesn't spread as easily as it does in China ( could be the Chinese are germaphobes) and their immune systems are garbage. If you want to freak out about something then look at the number of deaths from the flu. https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/the-fear-of-the-corona-virus-and-the-reality-of-the-flu The flu no longer gives ratings in the news. |
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Not sure of anyone has touched on any of these points, but I thought it might be of interest to some.
At work I deal with international traffic. I had a very enlightening conversation with a young lady who is originally from Wuhan, but has lived in Canada for the past 8years. Her parents are still in Wuhan, and more to the point their residence is directly across the street from one of the hospitals. Basically, she said the numbers being released are utter nonsense. She talks to her parents daily, all day bodies being taken out the back of the hospital and loaded into trucks or piled up to be loaded later. The government is constantly asking for "volunteers" to move the bodies, offering to pay them the equivalent of $150hr to do so. Once every 3 days a single family member goes to the store to buy supplies and then goes home. Private individuals are not allowed to use any type of motorized conveyance in city limits. The Chinese government added 3 channels to the TV to keep people entertained and keep them inside (even though they aren't supposed to go outside for leisure). She was in the process of picking up a bunch of PPE to send to her family overseas as well as keep a stash for her family over here. Sorry it's just the cliff notes of the conversation, it was brief but rather interesting to me. |
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Quoted: Let's not turn this into GD. Thank you. I stand by my statement. Look at the facts. all information is coming from China state run news directly to our state run news. Neither is credible China will not allow the CDC experts to help. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/cdc-coronavirus-china.html 15 cases in the US and it appears it doesn't spread as easily as it does in China ( could be the Chinese are germaphobes) and their immune systems are garbage. If you want to freak out about something then look at the number of deaths from the flu. https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/the-fear-of-the-corona-virus-and-the-reality-of-the-flu The flu no longer gives ratings in the news. View Quote |
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Quoted:
Not sure of anyone has touched on any of these points, but I thought it might be of interest to some. At work I deal with international traffic. I had a very enlightening conversation with a young lady who is originally from Wuhan, but has lived in Canada for the past 8years. Her parents are still in Wuhan, and more to the point their residence is directly across the street from one of the hospitals. Basically, she said the numbers being released are utter nonsense. She talks to her parents daily, all day bodies being taken out the back of the hospital and loaded into trucks or piled up to be loaded later. The government is constantly asking for "volunteers" to move the bodies, offering to pay them the equivalent of $150hr to do so. Once every 3 days a single family member goes to the store to buy supplies and then goes home. Private individuals are not allowed to use any type of motorized conveyance in city limits. The Chinese government added 3 channels to the TV to keep people entertained and keep them inside (even though they aren't supposed to go outside for leisure). She was in the process of picking up a bunch of PPE to send to her family overseas as well as keep a stash for her family over here. Sorry it's just the cliff notes of the conversation, it was brief but rather interesting to me. View Quote |
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Quoted: Let's not turn this into GD. Thank you. I stand by my statement. Look at the facts. all information is coming from China state run news directly to our state run news. Neither is credible China will not allow the CDC experts to help. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/cdc-coronavirus-china.html 15 cases in the US and it appears it doesn't spread as easily as it does in China ( could be the Chinese are germaphobes) and their immune systems are garbage. If you want to freak out about something then look at the number of deaths from the flu. https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/the-fear-of-the-corona-virus-and-the-reality-of-the-flu The flu no longer gives ratings in the news. View Quote |
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