Posted: 2/20/2010 5:03:51 AM EDT
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Many SF contributors have brought up these facts in various threads, credit goes to them.
Here is a list of some of the fail points in our society, feel free to add to it. Power Grid: Nuff said, we know how quickly a summer or winter storm can bring a local or regional grid to it's knees. Also, a fire, disaster or terrorist act at a generating facility could mean lights out for more than just days. In SHTF, will there still be a power company? Will there still be linemen to clear trees off of lines, reset circuit breakers, and splice broken wires? Municipal Water supplies: Quite vulnerable. These supplies are chemically dependent and have to be monitored constantly and adjusted constantly to maintain clean drinking water. And it just doesn't affect drinking water, think of fire hydrants too. Never gave it much thought, but, imagine society in chaos, power and water off? There will fires burning uncontrollably, and no way to put them out! These are the "small details" that many people don't think about, until it really happens. I'll wager that within a month of no power or water, cities will be "burned out". Between buildings set ablaze and people using combustibles for heat and cooking, cities will look like charred ruins. (just my wild guess). Libraries intact? [ha!] Not if it's winter. Books = Fuel. Rural Water supplies: Wells are great, I have one. But they depend on aquifers that continually are tapped and used. Build one too many houses on top of an aquifer that cannot support any more, and it's a slow drain, and eventually wells going dry, then they shove the pipe farther down to drain the last bit of water. Aquifers can become polluted too. Much better than a muni supply, but they will need o be guarded and used judiciously. Sanitation: Someone just mentioned this recently, that Sanitation would bring the suburbs to it's knees during SHTF. Quite true, but it's no different in the countryside. If there is an exodus from the cities to the countryside, as some of us expect, the creeks, stream and tributaries are going to become hopelessly polluted as they are dirtied up by the folks who deicde to take up "residence" along their banks. We will not be able to harvest fish from them, nor use them as a drinking water supply. Cholera will become fairly common if this happens. "Just in time" Food deliveries: Another topic that was mentioned recently in another thread. ho quickly will the shelves go bare? based on the recent snowstorms in this area, combined with holidays and SuperBowl Sunday, pretty darned fast. Within 24 hours they'll be stripped clean. If there is no way to get more trucks down the road, no fuel for them, or for whatever reason, people everywhere are screwed. Many folks in rural areas are just as dependent on grocery stores as city folks. "Just in time" Fuel deliveries: See FOOD above. Same thing, within 12-24 hours pumps will be dry. Done. This is why it's good to keep your vehicles above a half tank, even more during expected bad weather and such. These are the things that help me prioritize how I prep, and what I prep and hopefully will help others. Please add to the list of fragile infrastructure, the things weneed, that we take for granted, that may all of a sudden stop in a SHTF event. |
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I'll play.
The transportation industry is pretty fragile. Many do not think about how the goods they need and depend on end up at the store - and I'm not just talking about food, I'm talking about everything. A fuel shortage would disrupt the distribution channels, as would a natural disaster. A long term disruption could get very ugly. Also, millions of people depend on overnight air shipments. The medical industry depends heavily on them, in many cases. Hospitals and individuals. A large number of businesses do as well. It only takes one event to ground hundreds of flights. We live in mail-order times. Just think about the items you have ordered within the past few months. What would you do if you did not have the ability to order those items and have them show up at your doorstep a few days later. Just as an example, I know people who have heart medication delivered reguarly - they would be totally screwed if the delivery systems they depended on failed. |
Im a concrete contractor here in Washington state And was Talking with a WDOT Bridge/Dam inspector.I can tell you there are at least 150 bridges and dams here in the state are in need of serious/Major repair. I also was told Idaho and Montana are in similar situations.
This country would need hundred's of billions of dollars to get it back in shape. |
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Im a concrete contractor here in Washington state And was Talking with a WDOT Bridge/Dam inspector.I can tell you there are at least 150 bridges and dams here in the state are in need of serious/Major repair. I also was told Idaho and Montana are in similar situations.
This country would need hundred's of billions of dollars to get it back in shape. This is the case in most states. The Interstate Highway System in most states is 30 to 50 years old and outside of Urban Centers has not changed much in 30 to 50 years. Look at the Minneapolis Bridge Collapse. Many major bridges and overpasses in this country are in serious need of repair. We built an amazing Highway System in this country but we've done a horrible job of maintaining it. More emphasis is put on building new highways than maintaining existing ones. For politicians they get more TV time cutting the ribbon on a new freeway than maintaining an existing one. It's simply not as cool. Alot of other infrastructure is in similar shape including rail lines, airports, subways, utilities, etc. |
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Im a concrete contractor here in Washington state And was Talking with a WDOT Bridge/Dam inspector.I can tell you there are at least 150 bridges and dams here in the state are in need of serious/Major repair. I also was told Idaho and Montana are in similar situations.
This country would need hundred's of billions of dollars to get it back in shape. This is the case in most states. The Interstate Highway System in most states is 30 to 50 years old and outside of Urban Centers has not changed much in 30 to 50 years. Look at the Minneapolis Bridge Collapse. Many major bridges and overpasses in this country are in serious need of repair. We built an amazing Highway System in this country but we've done a horrible job of maintaining it. More emphasis is put on building new highways than maintaining existing ones. For politicians they get more TV time cutting the ribbon on a new freeway than maintaining an existing one. It's simply not as cool. Alot of other infrastructure is in similar shape including rail lines, airports, subways, utilities, etc. Here in Ohio and Michigan, you can see where large chunks of concrete have fallen off of many freeway overpasses. |
| Elaborating on P400's comments a little, traffic signals are almost completely dependent on utility power. Installing backup power for stoplights at intersections is almost unheard of - and thus traffic gridlock is almost guaranteed during any widespread power outage. |
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It's a done deal. I have been thinking about this. You ever wake up at night and can't sleep and just think? This is one of the things that run through my mind. We have been on a easy roll for years but sooner or later something is going to give. I believe the real TEOTWAWKI will be so catstrophic that death will seem a relief. Nature has a way of balancing things out and man will be no different. Eventually the strong will survive and the weak will perish.
edited to add I am talking a man made calamity that will affect our infrastruture to the point of irrepairable damage such as the new madrid fault. |
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edited to add I am talking a man made calamity that will affect our infrastruture to the point of irrepairable damage such as the new madrid fault. A single faultline will cause massive local damage, but I suspect its not going to be so widespread to call it irrepairable. It'll just take a decade or more to rebuild the affected infrastructure. |
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As far as the power grid goes down here in fla there were thousands out of power during the most of that cold snap in early January. Just the load brought everything down. No storm or damage from one. And I'm looking at all the empty houses that right now don't contribute to the load and wonder what would happen if they were all occupied and burning heaters etc.
Recently FPL got shot down with a rate increase proposal to upgrade the local grid so now they scrapped those plans. And the greens think we should all have plug in electric cars. What would that do to the load situation on the grid? |
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The leg of the supply chain I worry about the most is getting seed for next years crop. The farm buys all their seed for the next harvest after the current harvest. They might be able to stock some seed, but it most likely won't be non-hybrid for that kind of volume. I am going to see what we can do about stocking a few bags for a limited fuel supply. My BIL and I can work out how much fuel to harvest what acreage, and how long the current fuel would last. He is going to start keeping the tractors full so we have an accurate fuel total at all times. I am going to purchase some more mylar to put up several buckets of seed as an experiment to see how long it will last and still germinate. |
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The leg of the supply chain I worry about the most is getting seed for next years crop. The farm buys all their seed for the next harvest after the current harvest. They might be able to stock some seed, but it most likely won't be non-hybrid for that kind of volume. I am going to see what we can do about stocking a few bags for a limited fuel supply. My BIL and I can work out how much fuel to harvest what acreage, and how long the current fuel would last. He is going to start keeping the tractors full so we have an accurate fuel total at all times. I am going to purchase some more mylar to put up several buckets of seed as an experiment to see how long it will last and still germinate. make sure to post back your results. 
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Technology,
I do computer systems disaster recovery and business continuity planning. You can't believe how many supply chain type businesses are reliant on a beat up old Windows 98 machine running on the original hard drive. Have no backups and in all likely hood in the event of loss will be the end of their business. If you take the aforementioned fuel and food supply chain businesses, add there automated order entry and inventory maintenance wrap there payroll and hr computer program in to it and add a virus or internet disruption and it's over. Most employees get a check from about 4 payroll processing houses in the US. That information is transmitted online. Interrupt the flow of wages and see how fast things come to a halt. |
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Quoted: Just in time whatever is our Achilles heel. It will make "bad" events catastrophic. Stop shipping to anything larger than a state and it might be the ballgame. Something I totally agree with. During a storm (not hurricane) in Florida, it flooded a lot of crops. The Subway sandwich shop I went to in Arizona had to ration lettuce and tomatoes for 3 weeks. One bad natural event on one side of the country caused hardships on the other side of the country. ETA: also forgot about a summer in San Fran. Heat wave started popping transformers all over the place, tens of thousands without electricity for a few days. Entire city was sold out of fans as well (most don't have a/c). |
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The leg of the supply chain I worry about the most is getting seed for next years crop. The farm buys all their seed for the next harvest after the current harvest. They might be able to stock some seed, but it most likely won't be non-hybrid for that kind of volume. I am going to see what we can do about stocking a few bags for a limited fuel supply. My BIL and I can work out how much fuel to harvest what acreage, and how long the current fuel would last. He is going to start keeping the tractors full so we have an accurate fuel total at all times. I am going to purchase some more mylar to put up several buckets of seed as an experiment to see how long it will last and still germinate. What about fertilizer? |
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Quoted: Quoted: The leg of the supply chain I worry about the most is getting seed for next years crop. The farm buys all their seed for the next harvest after the current harvest. They might be able to stock some seed, but it most likely won't be non-hybrid for that kind of volume. I am going to see what we can do about stocking a few bags for a limited fuel supply. My BIL and I can work out how much fuel to harvest what acreage, and how long the current fuel would last. He is going to start keeping the tractors full so we have an accurate fuel total at all times. I am going to purchase some more mylar to put up several buckets of seed as an experiment to see how long it will last and still germinate. What about fertilizer? Its a luxury, not a necessity. With the amount of land the farm has available, then can leave some fields fallow, and then rotate the others. That is how its been done for centuries. We would definitely still be spreading manure. Its just we would need to put it on the right fields to get the most benefit. |
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Pesticides, fertilizer, and logistical supply issues with providing seed coupled with great difficulty in delivering fuel would result in very low crop yields.
Our population of 300,000,000+ would not be able to sustain itself particularly if we had mass migration of foreigners across our border in search of food. Just imagine what would happen if the Ports were unable to operate? RAND Corporation did a study on what would happen if a Dirty Bomb was detonated at the Port of LA or the Port of Longbeach (both would be effected if either were attacked with such a device). The result was not pretty in terms of our logistical supplies from overseas and ability to export goods ourselves. Even with other Ports unaffected and 100% operational we'd still be in for some serious long term issues. What about failure to maintain roads during the winter months throughout much of the U.S.? What would happen to commerce if snow removal was not taking place? What about operating trains and loss of air freight? Our FAA flight control system is a joke..antique of the 70's throughout most the nation and it wouldn't take much to shut it down. What about communications simply for the ordering and logistical management of supplies? Imagine if fiber optic lines were damaged or severed at key points. Insane. Look at the modest damage that followed Katrina and it was difficult to get water to folks in need even with the rest of the country operating effectively. Our society is a global spider web that provides incredible strength, but when threads from it are pulled it becomes weak very quickly. |
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What really makes it hard for me to sleep at night is I am a conrete contractor. I know what it takes to maintain these structure's, i do it for a living, and we are in very very real danger of losing infrastructure that would take decades to totaly evaluate, fund then repair.
If we were to have any Dam failure's or long term shut down of hydro-electric power sources it would bring this country to its knees. A typical Dam repair here in washington on average take's 2-3 years depending on geographical location and what capacity the dam operates at. IMO the odds we are able to repair even our dams before catasrophic failures, is slim at best. |
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The leg of the supply chain I worry about the most is getting seed for next years crop. The farm buys all their seed for the next harvest after the current harvest. They might be able to stock some seed, but it most likely won't be non-hybrid for that kind of volume. I am going to see what we can do about stocking a few bags for a limited fuel supply. My BIL and I can work out how much fuel to harvest what acreage, and how long the current fuel would last. He is going to start keeping the tractors full so we have an accurate fuel total at all times. I am going to purchase some more mylar to put up several buckets of seed as an experiment to see how long it will last and still germinate. make sure to post back your results. Tempature has alot to do w/ this^. Read an article about NATO countries having a seed storage facility near the north pole. Google. |
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Im a concrete contractor here in Washington state And was Talking with a WDOT Bridge/Dam inspector.I can tell you there are at least 150 bridges and dams here in the state are in need of serious/Major repair. I also was told Idaho and Montana are in similar situations.
This country would need hundred's of billions of dollars to get it back in shape. We don't have bridges in Montana.......we just drive around...... 
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We don't have bridges in Montana.......we just drive around...... Dana, you must live on the "east side". Up here in the NW corner we've got dams and lots of bridges. We still drive around but Forest Service roads and skidder trails make trips longer and much slower. 
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| Read John Ringo's The Last Centurion, talks about farming in a SHTF situation..a good read. One of the things that I'm keeping an eye on is solar weather, if we get hit with a huge flare we could see the whole grid go down and the EMP might fry nearly every modern bit of electronics. |
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Elaborating on P400's comments a little, traffic signals are almost completely dependent on utility power. Installing backup power for stoplights at intersections is almost unheard of - and thus traffic gridlock is almost guaranteed during any widespread power outage. I had the unfortunate experience of being in Miami in 2005 when we had 2 Tropical Storms hit the area. When the power goes out in that city it is chaos at every intersection. It's like a battle could breakout at anytime at every intersection. Miami traffic is insane on a good day. When the streetlights are out it's pure madness. Gridlock was the norm when the power was out. Not to mention the gas lines, etc. |
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When I was younger, I spoke with quite a few oldtimers that lived comfortably, raised families, kept employed, and generally had succesful, fulfilling lives WITH NO Functional ELECTRICAL GRID, and no Interstate highway system, and NO Refrigeration.
Folks will get by. They might have to work harder, commerce will be more LOCAL, some of us with medical issues are not going to live as long, but life will go on for most. |
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The leg of the supply chain I worry about the most is getting seed for next years crop. The farm buys all their seed for the next harvest after the current harvest. They might be able to stock some seed, but it most likely won't be non-hybrid for that kind of volume. I am going to see what we can do about stocking a few bags for a limited fuel supply. My BIL and I can work out how much fuel to harvest what acreage, and how long the current fuel would last. He is going to start keeping the tractors full so we have an accurate fuel total at all times. I am going to purchase some more mylar to put up several buckets of seed as an experiment to see how long it will last and still germinate. What about fertilizer? This is one very important point for long term survival––it would be good to listen to Jack Spirko @ thesurvivalpodcast.com and get informed on permaculture and composting. |
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It's a done deal. I have been thinking about this. You ever wake up at night and can't sleep and just think? This is one of the things that run through my mind. We have been on a easy roll for years but sooner or later something is going to give. I believe the real TEOTWAWKI will be so catstrophic that death will seem a relief. Nature has a way of balancing things out and man will be no different. Eventually the strong will survive and the weak will perish. edited to add I am talking a man made calamity that will affect our infrastruture to the point of irrepairable damage such as the new madrid fault. I have those nights also. Sooner or later Man or Nature will hit flush & we will be 100 years in the past. |
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The leg of the supply chain I worry about the most is getting seed for next years crop. The farm buys all their seed for the next harvest after the current harvest. They might be able to stock some seed, but it most likely won't be non-hybrid for that kind of volume. I am going to see what we can do about stocking a few bags for a limited fuel supply. My BIL and I can work out how much fuel to harvest what acreage, and how long the current fuel would last. He is going to start keeping the tractors full so we have an accurate fuel total at all times. I am going to purchase some more mylar to put up several buckets of seed as an experiment to see how long it will last and still germinate. What about fertilizer? This is one very important point for long term survival––it would be good to listen to Jack Spirko @ thesurvivalpodcast.com and get informed on permaculture and composting. +1000 on Jack Spirko and survivalpodcast.com, I am respectful to many but respect few... I respect Jack! Prepper |
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When I was younger, I spoke with quite a few oldtimers that lived comfortably, raised families, kept employed, and generally had succesful, fulfilling lives WITH NO Functional ELECTRICAL GRID, and no Interstate highway system, and NO Refrigeration. Folks will get by. They might have to work harder, commerce will be more LOCAL, some of us with medical issues are not going to live as long, but life will go on for most. Back in the good old days, we didn't have 300 million people completely dependent on American agriculture (and just-in-time logistics) to keep them from staving to death. We didn't have a population demographic where only one out of every thousand people had ever grown food for themselves, or where most folks lived on land too small to support significant crops. We didn't have farmers who depended on a cheap, unlimited supply of fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides, seeds and loans from their banks. In the wake of a long-term loss of utility infastructure, SOME folks would certainly survive - but I wouldn't bet money on MOST of them making it. |
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Im a concrete contractor here in Washington state And was Talking with a WDOT Bridge/Dam inspector.I can tell you there are at least 150 bridges and dams here in the state are in need of serious/Major repair. I also was told Idaho and Montana are in similar situations.
This country would need hundred's of billions of dollars to get it back in shape. Geez, you should consider yourself lucky. Here in PA, we have the 3rd largest number of bridges out of all the states (the six county district I worked in had more bridges than MD and DE combined), though we have the highest number of "structurally deficient" bridges. About 6000 out of 25,000 total state-owned bridges are classified structurally deficient. I'm a civil engineer, and providing the S does not hit the F, I'll not be short of work in the coming years. |
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Read John Ringo's The Last Centurion, talks about farming in a SHTF situation..a good read. One of the things that I'm keeping an eye on is solar weather, if we get hit with a huge flare we could see the whole grid go down and the EMP might fry nearly every modern bit of electronics. The Discovery Chanel did a program about Solar flares a while back. They said it would take 3 to 5 years to get the generating plants back on line due to lead time on the transformers used. They are large, expensive and they arent stockpiled anywhere. |
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Food?
In 2004, I was bored and wanted to go to Iraq/'stan ... just for something to do. So the Co, Recruiter tells me, "Get an updated class "A" commercial lic,. 50 - 100 k long haul miles and we'll hire you...... So off I go. I hauled loads of freaking carrots from southern California to Maine, salad.dressing from Mass. to Las Vegas All kinds of things you would think it would be cheaper to produce locally. Chilled at 38 degrees all the way. What they can't grow carrots in the summers on the east coast? (Didn't take the job, truck drivers were not allowed to be armed. If one was caught, they were shipped home on a one way first class ticket charged to them. About $6000 I was told. ) Didn't get this old by depending on anyone but me for survival. 
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When I was younger, I spoke with quite a few oldtimers that lived comfortably, raised families, kept employed, and generally had succesful, fulfilling lives WITH NO Functional ELECTRICAL GRID, and no Interstate highway system, and NO Refrigeration. Folks will get by. They might have to work harder, commerce will be more LOCAL, some of us with medical issues are not going to live as long, but life will go on for most. Back in the good old days, we didn't have 300 million people completely dependent on American agriculture (and just-in-time logistics) to keep them from staving to death. We didn't have a population demographic where only one out of every thousand people had ever grown food for themselves, or where most folks lived on land too small to support significant crops. We didn't have farmers who depended on a cheap, unlimited supply of fuel, fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides, seeds and loans from their banks. In the wake of a long-term loss of utility infastructure, SOME folks would certainly survive - but I wouldn't bet money on MOST of them making it. Once again. Skibane scores a direct hit. This aint the good-ol-days, not by any stretch. The "Just-in-time" logistics could create chaos overnight - don't doubt this for a second. |
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Just in time whatever is our Achilles heel. It will make "bad" events catastrophic. Stop shipping to anything larger than a state and it might be the ballgame. Even FEDGOV is overrun with this mentality. Instead of planning for the worst, DHS and DoD are planning for what they figure Congress will give them. It is most unsettling. Quoted:
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Elaborating on P400's comments a little, traffic signals are almost completely dependent on utility power. Installing backup power for stoplights at intersections is almost unheard of - and thus traffic gridlock is almost guaranteed during any widespread power outage. I had the unfortunate experience of being in Miami in 2005 when we had 2 Tropical Storms hit the area. When the power goes out in that city it is chaos at every intersection. It's like a battle could breakout at anytime at every intersection. Miami traffic is insane on a good day. When the streetlights are out it's pure madness. Gridlock was the norm when the power was out. Not to mention the gas lines, etc. I was stationed at the CG Air Station in Opa Locka during those two. After one of those storms was the only time I've seriously considered carrying a long gun in public. As for the "old folks who got by", they all knew how to cook over a fire, and generally take care of themselves. Nearly everyone in this country thinks that someone somewhere will help them if they need it. Once they are out of food, out of water, and realize that they are on their own, they will lose their minds and act even more savage than some of them already do. |