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AR15.COM
4/2/2007 6:44:11 PM EDT
Due to financial reasons, I want to focus on the most likely SHTFs that could affect me.  

To do this, I’m listing out all of the SHTFs that I can think of and giving them a score.  This score is guess based on their likelihood of affecting where I live.

Here’s where you can help.  I’ve thought up a lot of potential SHTFs, but I’m having a tough time thinking of any other.  

Here’s my list, what can you add to it?

Auto Accident
Asshat On A Shooting Rampage
Blizzard
Chemical/Biological Attack, other country
Chemical/Biological Attack, terrorist
Divorce
Earthquake
EMP Attack
Flood
Fuel Crisis
House Fire
Hurricane
Job Loss
Medical Emergency
National Financial Crisis
Nuclear Attack, other country
Nuclear Attack, terrorist
Plague
Power Outage
Riot
Sever Cold
Sever Heat
Tornado
Tsunami
Volcanic Eruption
Zombie Outbreak

Thanks in advance.
4/2/2007 6:56:01 PM EDT
[#1]
Aztlan.
U.S. Government JBT Crackdown.
Gang Warfare / Expansion.
Global Warming.
China Invading Taiwan / Spratlys / Japan.
George Bush declaring himself an autonomous dictator.
Hillary Clinton as Presidentress and declaring herself an autonomous dictatress.

I could think of more, but I need to go inventory my ammo.  
4/2/2007 7:59:20 PM EDT
[#2]
chronic (extended) medical condition
long-term assisted living
victim of:  home invasion / burglary / robbery/ assault with injuries / other crime
legal problems

The above might not hit you personally, could be another family member who either lives with you or ends up living with you.

drought or other water shortage
interruption of running water to your home/work
crop failure / food shortage
chemical spill
other forced evacuation
a plague of locusts or other vermin


How is your area for wild fires?






4/2/2007 8:30:50 PM EDT
[#3]
In the Pacific NW I'd say the most likely is power outage due to windstorm. Next power/traffic issues due to snowstorms or flooding.  Lower probability but much higher impact is earthquake or another local mountain blows up.

If I lived in downtown Seattle, riots/arson would be a high probability event.
4/2/2007 8:40:07 PM EDT
[#4]

Quoted:
How is your area for wild fires?


Definitely possible, my town is surrounded by woods.
4/3/2007 1:48:31 AM EDT
[#5]
zombies it all i worry about!
4/3/2007 5:12:22 AM EDT
[#6]
I have prioitized my four basic catagories that I consider SHTF events. The last catagory encompasses all of the potentially Apocalyptic/TEOTWAWKI events.

1) Hurricanes - All too real here after the events of the last 3 years. Could be anything from a non-event, to a temporary disruption of life, to total devastation. Because a hurricane is a localized event, there will be help from unaffected areas eventually.

2) Pandemic Influenzia - Let's face it, if it's not H5N1 that turns out to be the killer flu (and it's looking more likely all the time), it's only a matter of time until one comes along that is. Pandemic plagues historically, come in cycles...and we're past due.

3) Terrorist Attacks - Severe, coordinated attacks by terrorists including limited nuclear/biological/chemical. Generally localized events, but with nationwide implications.

4) All Out SHTF/TEOTWAWKI - Nuclear war, EMP attack, biological/chemical attacks, full scale world war. Severe economic upheaval to include; economic depression, currency devaluation, undermining of the economy by foreign financers of US debt (i.e., China), long term interuption of fuel supplies, widespread crop failures due to drought, floods, severe cold, disease, completely unchecked border crossings by illegals seeking economic relief. Geological events to include; an asteroid strike, severe volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, etc. Martial law, suspension of constitutional rights, a tyranical government seizing power in the name of "security".

...and of course...mutant, flesh eating, hoards of zombies....

4/3/2007 5:25:48 AM EDT
[#7]
AR15.com goes down indefinately

4/3/2007 6:54:11 AM EDT
[#8]
     Four major ones for me are:
     1.  Earthquake.
     2.  San Onofre nuclear power plant disaster.  Wind changes direction and blows radiation towards my home.
     3.  Influx of illegal aliens.
     4.  Full blown riot heading my way.  
4/3/2007 7:19:21 AM EDT
[#9]
Disabling injury

House fire

epidemic/pandemic disease

Ops