Posted: 3/16/2007 10:01:29 PM EDT
| I believe the most likely SHTF scenario will be an economic catastrophy. There has been some discussion on here about the kinds of jobs that will be well suited for post a post SHTF scenario (such as skilled trades) but what I am wondering is thoughts what most people on here will do for jobs after perhaps an economic collapse. If you live in the suburbs, as I do, how would you commute to work with fuel shortages, etc. It seems like the suburbs would be a bad place to be during times of widespread economic disaster. What about your finances, mortgages, retirement, and investments during/after an economic depression? I would just like some real world idea on how you would survive an economic SHTF... |
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With current inflation, I have to agree with you. Now is a good time to clean out the garage and sell off old toys that we dont need or use anymore while the economy is still OK. Once a collapse starts, people who live paycheck to paycheck wont have money for food, let alone toys. Its like that Dick and Jane movie with Jim Carey, but if gold prices are any indication I see it as not to far away. I hope I'm wrong. |
| I heard that the guy that wrote this is a member here, though I forget his handle. Good reading on the topic...makes me want a glock or an xd45... |
I believe he goes by ferfal here also. |
| It will could be for some people, ie people and organizations who took a gamble and over-extended themselves financially for example the sub-prime housing market. The people who got in on beginning of the housing boom made off well, but the subsequent people who got into the market is going to have some problems. |
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I believe Ferfal recommended diversifying some of your assets in foreign countries, be it in stocks or currency. His father was able to accomplish this and after the economic collapse in Argentina, he now lives in Spain. He said after his domestic currency was worthless most merchants took gold rings as a form of payment. He said the ultimate goal in SHTF scenario is to possess the ability to be adaptive and have to enough resources to relocate. Of course if American experiences a total economic collapse most of the world would domino after us. Remember the "correction" a few weeks ago. It was trigger by a huge sell-off in China which spooked domestic investors here, now think the inverse of that. |
| ARfanboy: Yep most true. But remember part of the problem in the world economy is that many people percieve that the US economy is in trouble(i.e. the housing boom is starting to slow down and the sub-prime housing market is collapsing), which I surmise is what cause the problem in China. Remember who is China's biggest market? If the US has problems, there will be less demand for Chinese goods in the US, so many people want to get out of their holdings before the market goes down, and of the PRC has the people with the herd mentality also. Remember the old saying, "if the US sneezes, the rest of the world will catch a cold." My guess is that the US economy alone is probalby responsible for 1/8 of the econmomic activity in the world. |
It might be an option to relocate to another country if you choose to, but it might be like going from the frying pan into the fire. People living in other countries might not be too friendly toward Americans in their countries if things start going bad, and money might not be enough to change their attitudes. I think I'd prefer to stay here where at least I'm on home territory.
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| The best rundown on what is coming and how to cope with it (economically) is Michael Panzer's book "Financial Armageddon". I just finished it and it was an excellent synopsis of what threats are building and how you should play it out. I've read a lot of similar articles, but his book pulls it all together in an easy-to-read format. He doesn't paint a pretty picture of what is to come. I read through it trying to find where he exaggerated or misinterpreted things, but he is right on the mark. Definitely a must read. |
| Buildanark.net is a great site with lots of useful information. I think it would be good to get out of the country during a major economic depression because of civil unrest, riots, mass violence, etc. but there are only a few places in the world where I would feel safe for my family to reside such as Switzerland, Sweden, or the Netherlands. I guess there might be some problem with getting to these counties during such a sitiuation. My main concern would be if we couldnt bug out of the country. The idea of learning skills that would be conducive to maintaining the necessities (i.e. food, shelter, clothing) in case one lost his/her job would be very valuable in times like this. Also, if there were an economic collapse what would banks do with all the secure/non-secured debt? Would the debt just evaporate, would the indebted people be sold into slavery like they were hundreds of years ago, or would banks call the loans immediately? |
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Let's say that an economic downfall/collapse happens--you have some FRN's and want to (beforehand) take some of that and turn it into something that will AT LEAST keep value AND remain liquid. What are some items/options? My first thoughts are: silver/gold ammo ... what else? What are some better ways to try and keep some value if the dollar and inflation continues to run opposite of each other? |
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How would you leave the country and what would you take with you?I can't see that as an option at all. The main thing to do is get as far out of debt as possible and try and be somewhat self-sufficient. I don't have anything in the stock market anymore,but do have silver.I like to keep cash on hand,and keep plenty of food,water,and ammo around. I agree that economic SHTF is the likely scenario we face-even a major terrorist strike here can cause economic hardship.Or more unrest in the middle east-gas at 4.00 a gallon?5.00?Like has been said-sell off the toys you don't need now.Don't live in fear,but live within your means so you won't be as affected when it happens. |
You might want to reconsider about going to Sweden or Netherlands. Increasing Muslim population and strongly socialist/borderline communist .gov very PC and multiculturilist=not stable in the near future. |
Not to mention that these countries actually enforce their borders.... You will have trouble getting in without the proper paperwork... Unless they take solid gold bars. 
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"How would you leave the country and what would you take with you?I can't see that as an option at all." A few things you probably wouldn't be able to take with you would be some firearms, much food, and your rights as a citizen of the US. Other than that, you'd be fine.  Oh wait, that would make you a refugee unless you happened to have loads of money to bring with you and even that wouldn't guarantee you safe entry(or safety once you got there).  Remember, you're not a citizen there, you're just a "guest".
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This seems to be the best plan for bug in. I plan to stick it out and try to re establish America to its formal glory |
Well, I can pretty much turn off the utilities to my ranch and live on my own. I have a small mortage, if I can't make that payment, in a year or two I'd get evicted. My ranch is surounded by BLM/Forest Service land, I have a bread van I am setting up as an RV, so I would just drive less than 1 mile up the road and set up camp. Why not? Others are camping in the area allready. If I could get some work in town, I'd keep my ford taurus registered/insured(?) as it is my only economy vehicle (maybe buy/trade for a motor cycle) and drive to work, if no work is available....welfare? Make furniture, whatever, but if noone has money, WTF good dose that do? Basicly I am set to go back to 1800s living style. I came from family that lived in the kansas/nebraska area in the early 1900s (I'm part indian BTW) and I paid attention to all the stories about doing things back then. Through the "great depression" and all. I think I could do it. In Oregon many people still live like that. Live in the hills with no electricity. We have rivers and creeks for free water, trees for fire (warmth/cooking) and building shelters. I think in a year I'd have a sweet ass cabin, smoke house, stable for my horses, well stocked with deer, bear and other meats. I'd just live like my ancestors. Hell, I'd probably lose weight and be healthy for the first time in my life! No more McDonalds transfat killing me.
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if by surviving a financial shtf you mean being recession proof, there are 2 ways. build your buisness model to take "pennys or $100 bills". by this i mean, you have to either cater to the very poor, with a product that they will always need or will pay for (small profit, large volume). or cater to the very rich, as they will still be rich through recessions (large profit, small volume). in recession the middle class is always hit the hardest. the poor get wellfare ect. the rich have all they need pluse some. the middle class are the ones who will pinch pennys and struggle to survive, the rest will do as they always have. to be middle class and survive recession, you must neglect the middle class in your buisness model, in effect you must be a slum lord or highend boat/car/proporty market. |
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Diversify investments. I consider debt evil. So kill it. No I don't want to discuss how some people make money by having a mortgage and what not. Stock markets crash and other bad things happen and I truly enjoy owning my possessions outright because I don't really care if I lose my job or not. If you think debt to buy a house is ok then goody goody. To some it is worth it and some day it might be worth it to me. But so far it has been easier for me to just buy outright and be done with it. But not everyone has the luck I have had. Live close to work. Also consider options for gettting to work. My quad cab pickup would allow me to pickup 5 co-workers on the way to work and they can help pay for fuel. I could get a moped or small motorcycle or an econo car as well. I could also move closer to my work. For me it will be simpler to change jobs I think, still working on having good enough work history to bother changing jobs though. I think in ferfal's posts he talks about people spending their paychecks immediately because of inflation. Some people bought car parts for vehciles they did not own. They just wanted to possess something tangible that would be needed. I consider retirement to be what happens if nothing happens. If something major happens to the economy and it collapses I just hope I am diverse enough to keep my head above water. I expect to be helping relatives and struggling pretty hard. But due to no debt and lots of diversity I figure I can change as the wind changes and go with the flow instead of sinking or being forced to go a direction I had never planned on. |
...I'm thinking that our Strategic Reserves would be enough to "Kick their Ass and Take their Gas" (TM) That shit is only funny when JDAMS aren't landing on your palaces..... |
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I believe in keeping debt down to a minimum but exercising credit to keep a good, relatively high credit rating. We took out a 250 K$ line of credit on our house, which is debt free, took out the minimum and put it back in. We were going to pay for our car in cash but when Acura offered us 0.9% for 3 years, the math was easy, take the debt and let the money work for 36 months at a higher interest rate to clear about 2.5 K$ over that period. Good for our credit rating, puts cash in our pocket. Outside of some in western Europe & Japan, I don't believe that one can compare our government and financial institutions woth other countries. Too many people demean our country, comparing us to others in a highly unfavorable manner to try and make a point or carry a political agenda. I recently heard Forbes put China in perspective. The growth of our economy since 2001, alone is larger than the entire economy of China. And everybody assures us that China will bury us in 10 to 15 years. The problem is, China will falter and hit hard. They will collapse under the weight of 750 million people currently living in abject poverty so deep that half don't have safe drinking water and all have no real way out or up. If you compare the size of the Chinese military to its population, they are outgunned. The only thing that keeps the people in line is the highlly autocratic system of secret police and dictatroial rule that most people don't see, either by choice or by style of life. I think we will have problems, but not of a catastrophic nature. Use our great economy, even in bad times, to your best advantage and carefully manage your debt and investment protfolios. F |