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Posted: 3/26/2009 5:23:10 AM EDT
Solar flare activity has been down for a while now, last few years in fact.
They are speculating we might see cooler global temperatures in the near future becasue of this.
Even a mini ice age.

Where's Al Gore so we can line up and kick his butt!

very_low_solar_activity

where-have-all-the-sunspots-gone

"A lull in solar action could potentially drive the planet’s temperature down, or even prompt a mini Ice Age."
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/4248062.html


The Little Ice Age occurred, and these types of events appear to be cyclical.
The reason we have English Christmas images of snow, people skating on rivers, and all of those Courier and Ives scenes, is because of one of the Little Ice Ages. The Thames River in England regularly froze over during that period. Think of Washington's troops at Valley Forge, and crossing the Delaware river amongst ice flows. Ice flows on the Delaware river!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age


Weather is cyclical, there was a great warming period during Medievel Times, and it seems now we are at the peak of another one. The lower solar activity seems to indicate we may in store for some cooling.





Link Posted: 3/26/2009 6:20:24 PM EDT
Great info, thanks for the post!

I've always known global warming is crap - I'm just glad their finally coming out with proof that the exact opposite is happening...

Now I'll have to get more blankets and long underwear for my preps
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 7:06:44 PM EDT
Global warming leads to cooling. It's a lot easier to sit back and act dumb and call bull****. Get smarter. If you havent noticed changes in the climate in the last 20 - 40 years then you havent been paying attention.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 7:27:19 PM EDT
At best we have been keeping accurate weather information for the last 120-140 years. It is rather arrogant of us to think that we can make reliable predictions of future weather or claim (eeeek) Global Warming based off this little data. Somewhere little alarms are going off in the Al Gore camp as I am now slated as a non-believer.

For the first time in seven years we had measurable snow in east/central VA in March this year. Thanks Al, normally we are playing golf by March 4th.
Link Posted: 3/26/2009 8:05:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/26/2009 8:08:17 PM EDT by mnvwguy02]
Originally Posted By ZombieHuntClub:
Global warming leads to cooling. It's a lot easier to sit back and act dumb and call bull****. Get smarter. If you havent [sic] noticed changes in the climate in the last 20 - 40 years then you havent been paying attention.


The problem with global climate change models is that none account for negative feedback in the system, and none that I am aware of model the sun's behavior (though some can adjust for various amounts of energy received by earth and adjust for albedo).

However, if anthropogenic warming were to exist, and it were to lead to cooling, then a responsible "scientist" would improve &/or refine the model to account for such effects. When the current model predictions are correlated to actual climate results we find a poor or no correlation and should reject the model.

Seeing 20-40 years of "climate change" should be absolutely normal. Earth's climate is always changing, as it is a dynamic system. There is no "correct" temperature or climate to which we can appeal or reference. Frankly, if you base your rationale for faith in the anthropogenic theory on what you have seen in 20-40 years, you are scientifically illiterate and need to "get smarter".

The greatest problem with the theory of anthropogenic climate change is that of the proposed solutions: it is assumed that the change is "bad" must stop and it is further assumed that only socialism and surrender of liberty can stop the change. If that is the case, I'd prefer global warming.

As for me, I think every creature on earth modifies the environment, and the amount of anthropogenic climate influence is truly unknown, and entirely overblown for political reasons. That is reason enough to call it BS

Link Posted: 3/26/2009 9:31:19 PM EDT
The thing about the weather ("climate") is it changes....

All the chicken little, Al Gorevera, commie, global anything, BS is all just a power grab for the Gov. that will make a few rich on the backs of the American people...

Actual climate change (ice ages, warming periods) happens in the scope of Geologic time, and in the scope of Geologic time, Humans have been on this earth for a blink of an eye...

The scare tactic that is global warming/climate change/global cooling (have you noticed that the name changes as the seasons do?) is a complete fraud, and if you buy it you are a fool...

Hows that saying go?

A fool and his money (and freedom) are soon seperated...
Link Posted: 3/27/2009 12:20:11 AM EDT
Of course climate change is real, we're still coming out of an ice age for crying out loud! Now if all that ice melted well before the industrial revolution, what caused it? I know the earth's climate changes over time. However I doubt man has that much of an influence over it. It's certainly not a bad idea to cut back on how much energy and resources we waste, but it shouldn't come at the expense of liberty and excessive money. I'm really disappointed that everyone has swallowed it hook, line and sinker. The majority of people are too stupid to realise it's nothing but a cash grab. Anyone who dares question it is shot down like an idiot.
Link Posted: 3/27/2009 1:23:12 PM EDT
Originally Posted By ZombieHuntClub:
Global warming leads to cooling. It's a lot easier to sit back and act dumb and call bull****. Get smarter. If you havent noticed changes in the climate in the last 20 - 40 years then you havent been paying attention.


Global warming leads to cooling then warming then cooling then warming then cooling......



Link
Link Posted: 3/27/2009 2:29:48 PM EDT
Al Gore may not have invented internet, but he did invent global warming. Global warming is yet another, in a long list of bogus, fabricated, hack science, environmental crisis, to regulate current industry and create government strong arm control.

It is complete and utter bullshit, fabricated by fascists, in order to garner support by ignorant voters, to control free market through wide sweeping false environmental impacts. The result is a multitude of government agencies and unlimited embedded backdoor taxes. Its been done in industrial countries the world over. The wrapper may change, but the tax control inside the package is the same.
Link Posted: 3/27/2009 3:21:30 PM EDT
I'm skeptical that tax dollars will fix climate change.
Link Posted: 3/27/2009 3:31:35 PM EDT
RichV, great graph!

This is another great point, besides solar flare activity affecting our weather, a single volcanic event can cool the globe quickly by putting out so much particulate matter. Mount St. Helens (been there) caved in on itself, so, it didn't put out as much particualte matter skyward as it could have.
Pinatubo (sp?) lowered world tempratures significantly for a long time.

The point being, there are a lot of forces at play, and they all are not accounted for in global warming models.

The older guys around here will remember the big worry over the huge hole in the Ozone layer over Antartica, back in the 80's (I think). It was getting bigger, and it must be man and his pollution causing it...the hole was going to grow and grow then one day we won't have an Ozone and we'll die from exposure to radiation from space!
That was the chant. Where is the big growing hole in the Ozone now? There isn't one.

We are smack dab in between 2 ice ages, it is supposed to be warmer.

On a geologic scale, man's use of fossil fuel will look like a tiny blip on a graph.

Weather cycles on a grander scale than the 100 years of data we have. And really, scientific isntruments and methods are suspect prior to WW2. it will warm up, and it will cool down.

One thing we can depend on, the weather will constantly change. There will be cyclical droughts, and cyclical flooding.

I put up the info about low solar flare activity to show that something such as the sun's activity, or as RichV has shown us, volcanoes, can snuff out a couple degrees of warming very quickly.

Al Gore still owns a home that burns as much energy as 28 average American homes.
And he owns several others, as well. Oh he buys carbon credits, so that is OK?
He is an elitist hypocrit!

Wool socks and Firewood, they won't let you down like a politician would.


Link Posted: 3/27/2009 4:11:16 PM EDT
Hole in the ozone? What about acid rain before it?
Link Posted: 3/27/2009 5:40:14 PM EDT
Originally Posted By ZombieHuntClub:
Global warming leads to cooling. It's a lot easier to sit back and act dumb and call bull****. Get smarter. If you havent noticed changes in the climate in the last 20 - 40 years then you havent been paying attention.


um , ive only been alive for 43 years....I have seen changes every freakin year. they are called seasons....some times they are worse than others. Climate changes......geez I remember being taught the great lakes were created by glaciers....whered they go ?? who was driving the SUV's a million freakin years ago that caused them to melt ? I am so sick of al gore and his band of whiny commie liars.....Weather changes NATURALLY !!! Global warming leads to cooling.....What a load of crap.......warming leads to warming and cooling leads to cooling.....Man made global warming is nothing more than a way for a bunch of power hungry communists to control how the masses live.....What a load of crap

Link Posted: 3/27/2009 6:41:43 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Aus-Rob:
Hole in the ozone? What about acid rain before it?


Good one!
Acid Rain was going to kill everything.

I personally think there are many more prevalent things to worry about,
tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanos, floods, mudslides,
Hezzbollah crossing the Mexican border into the US.......DOH!!



Link Posted: 3/27/2009 6:44:01 PM EDT
AL Gore is full of sheeeeet
Link Posted: 3/27/2009 7:52:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/27/2009 7:54:34 PM EDT by gpdave]

There's still an ozone hole. The reason you dont hear about it is cause they figured out what causes it, and its related to bromine and chlorine in polar stratospheric clouds, so we're probably unlikely to lose our ozone protection (over the US) in the near future. Although technically, “ozone hole” is a random choice where the total ozone column is less than 220 dobson units (vs a normal value of ~350 or so). Just because the media keeps quiet about something doesn’t make it untrue.

The thing about climate change is similar to the whole prepairedness deal – in that "sheep" use bad science and crap arguments (like that chart and lots of al gore's schtick) to make themselves believe what they want to believe, and in the case of climate change, that goes for people on both sides. The real truth: no one knows what’s going to happen to the climate in the future (although lots of people have very educated guesses) and that is why I probably should start prepping more, cuz I can't know the future.
Link Posted: 3/28/2009 7:19:41 PM EDT
Global warming is an inconvenience... a few million might die... global cooling is serious, billions might find life untenable.
Link Posted: 3/28/2009 7:42:11 PM EDT
Since we were supposed to be warming the planet, and now somehow the warming has led to cooling - does it not make sense to go back to what we were doing to the warm the planet? Let's get rid of all the ecowacko regulations put in place to stop global warming, and really put forth some effort to warm things back up. IF man had so much impact, does it not make sense to allow man to warm things back up again???? Let's build some 2MPG SUV's and mandate that everyone drive one. Forget about filters, pollution controls, etc. and let's get back to warming the planet. Let's go back to the old style freon. Bring back leaded gasoline. Let's burn every old tire we can put our hands on and see if we can correct this disastrous climate change from getting any colder. We were supposedly going to burn the planet up, so let's see if we can really make a dent by actually trying to warm things up while the sun stays in a cooler type cycle.
Link Posted: 3/28/2009 7:50:27 PM EDT
Those cold eras seems to be getting bigger...

I was looking forward to global warming. I might be able to see a bikini for once..
Link Posted: 3/30/2009 5:52:44 AM EDT
There hasn't been any "global warming" since 1998. Before the winter of 2008/2009 began, it was predicted by a substantial number of climate scientists (and interestingly, the Old Farmers Almanac as well) that this winter would be the beginning of a cooling trend. To their credit, the scientists made no wild and absolute claims that we were headed for another ice age, but stated that the current data was not sufficient to determine if the cooling trend meant weather like that of the 1940's/1950's, or another "mini ice age" as in the last cooling cycle that started around 1400. It's interesting to note that the list of climatologists who now dispute or at least seriously doubt global warming, dwarfs the number that are still drinking the Kool-Aide and repeating the mantra, "the science is in, the debate is over, global warming is a reality". This really has the UN's shorts in a wad.

I think it's hilarious, and perfectly predictable, that the high church of the global warming cult has changed their core belief from "global warming" to "climate change". Gee, that's not too vague, is it? This is the same group that in the 1970's was screaming in another of their Chicken Little tirades, that we were about to enter a new ice age. Now, by positioning themselves right in the middle of their two former extremes, they can blame mankind for whatever change there will be in the climate. Since all this climate hooey is nothing more than a ploy to grow world-wide socialism through the redistribution of wealth to a centralized government, then this is a clever plan hatched in their devious little minds...at least it may seem so to the sheeple.

The fact of the matter is that historically, civilization has flourished during times of global warming. Areas that were previously unfit for growing crops due to inhospitable climate, became fertile areas for crops. Global warming meant longer growing seasons as well. Food was plentiful, the birthrate soared, humanity prospered. As the last warming period came to an end, famine, disease, war and global catastrophy soon followed. The planet is ripe for another such "correction" right now. A sudden, protracted period of cold would quickly reverse the relative prosperity the world population has enjoyed for a couple of centuries. Over-population would lead to famine, famine to war, war to disease and pestilence. Forget about wars for oil, it'll be wars for food.

And the pin heads think "global warming" is the threat....

"Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it."
Link Posted: 3/30/2009 6:13:41 AM EDT
Another interesting item of note: As seen in Rich_V's graphic, the trend in the cycles of warming/cooling show that the more precipitous the drop in temperature, the deeper and colder the cycle. Each of the previous four cycles were progressively sharper in their decline towards colder temperatures, with the current cycle showing the most precipitous drop yet. If this cycle follows the previous models, it could surpass the mini-ice age of 1350-1850. The upward projection on the graph for the near term does not appear to follow the previous four trends nor the current one that is developing. If this current cycle follows the previous four, we are headed for a period at least as cold as the previous mini ice age of 1350-1850. Interesting....
Link Posted: 3/30/2009 6:59:44 AM EDT
Originally Posted By skunkwerx:

The older guys around here will remember the big worry over the huge hole in the Ozone layer over Antartica, back in the 80's (I think). It was getting bigger, and it must be man and his pollution causing it...the hole was going to grow and grow then one day we won't have an Ozone and we'll die from exposure to radiation from space!
That was the chant. Where is the big growing hole in the Ozone now? There isn't one.



First Satellite - 4 October 1957 - lasted 3 months
Ozone Hole - appears in the early 80's - largest hole measured recently

Isn't interesting how this 'Ozone Hole' occurred just about the point in time that we were able to send up quality satellites with decent sensors.

Questions:
Is the hole really getting bigger or are we just able to measure it better?
How do we know it wasn't even larger sometime in the past if we only started measuring it in the last 30-40 yrs?
Link Posted: 3/30/2009 9:08:31 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 3/30/2009 9:20:20 AM EDT by gpdave]
Ranchhand - [edited for clarity] - You bring up a good point. Instrument precision is always a factor, but you can look at time series for the nimbus-7 satellite, which was operating from the late 70s to the early 90s and see the "ozone hole", which is, admittedly, an arbatrary designation[end of ETA]

The data is online for you to peruse if you would like.
Go here:

http://jwocky.gsfc.nasa.gov/

If you want the data since 1978, click "nimbus 7". Just for fun since I wanted to waste lunchtime , i got the data from near new york city:



And the data for vostok (in antarctica).


Those downward spikes you see are what happens when the sun comes up in the "summer(ok technically spring)" - when it goes below 200 dobson units, its considered to be an "ozone hole". Our current understanding of
ozone indicates that the ozone hole is caused by predominately manmade trace gases occurring at the same time as polar stratospheric clouds. They spent a lot of time in the 80's trying to figure out what was causing this stuff. They didn't just say "oh it happened at the same time as the manmade pollutants, it must be caused by them", they really tried to understand the chemistry - and they eventually figured it out. The ozone hole is much more solid than global warming. As I said in my previous post, you don't see any articles on it cause it really needs the polar stratospheric clouds to occur, so probably no ozone hole will happen over the us (assuming my understanding is correct).

I think i did this right, but if someone wants to, please check my work.

That climate graphs needs some axis labels and needs to mention the datasets they used.

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