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Quoted: With a couple of exceptions - I'd do nothing at the moment except sit on cash. I can't predict what will happen in the future but my gut tells me that land has yet to bottom and same goes with stocks. IMO stocks will be a rocky ride for the next year or two but there is definitely money to be made in the swings and as the recession realities sink in - land will go lower, I certainly don't see it going higher any time in the near future. Just that with credit being as hard as it is for many and banks not wanting to financed "overpriced" land, prices will have to come down to attract buyers. But if you find a chunk of land that you absolutely fall in love with to the point that you feel you could live out the rest of your days there, and can afford it with somewhat discretionary money, I'd go for it. That said, I really don't know, just my gut feelings. I'm looking to buy land in 12-18 months, I don't have the cash I need yet and want to wait to see how more of this plays out. |
This sounds like pretty good advice. We're holding off putting our "old" retirement money back into the stock market; but, we'll probably start putting our new 401k contributions back into the market now. This will take advantage of dollar cost averaging, and won't require me to guess the bottom which I suspect will take another 12 months to find. I really don't want to put our old money back (we got out at the beginning of January) because this stock market reminds me of a third world country, and I really don't like the emotional worry of watching our retirement money going up and down in 10% swings each day. If I wasn't risk adverse, I probably wouldn't be a member of the survival community
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. I probably won't buy stocks outside of the 401k (or a Roth IRA) simply because we'd have to deal with capital gains taxes. I think both stocks and property are going down for at least 6 months, and possibly not recovering for up to 18 months. I think Obama will raise capital gains taxes in the future.
We'll probably look for property within the year with post tax money simply because we'll likely hold this much longer, the interest rates may still be low then, and it makes a great inflation hedge. I'd anticipate inflation in about 2+ years as foreign investors start to figure out exactly how big our deficits and national debt is and start to devaluate the dollar again. Once inflation really takes hold, we should have another devaluation of property as payment sizes increase because of higher interest rates; but, it will be hard to get a fixed interest rate loan at a reasonable rate by then for the same reason. I'm hoping the dollar devaluation takes a lot longer (10+ years) to occur; however, it really depends on the finance ministers of Japan and China more than anything. The day they stop buying our Treasury securities is the day we're in trouble. The bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the only two bailouts I agree with simply because they're failure would have burned China severely and possibly caused them to call in their other markers all at once. Our being a debtor nation is a precarious position. Until the dollar devaluates again, precious metals are going to be a crappy investment.
I see I've gotten a lot more than I intended. As someone else said, free investment advice from internet strangers is worth exactly what you paid for it