Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login

Site Notices
Posted: 5/8/2018 11:08:55 PM EDT
I hope you Californians we're watching this one. Pay the fuck attention.

There were several times where Travis Allen bitch slap Gavin Newsom.
Link Posted: 5/8/2018 11:35:43 PM EDT
I was not watching & Gavin probably liked it. Piss on that guy.

My concern is that there are around 20 candidates on the damn ballot. Allen & Cox will split the R vote fairly well, I assume. That's gonna hurt both of their chances. I hope that the many D candidates will get their share and hurt Gavin's numbers. I hope...
Link Posted: 5/9/2018 12:46:02 AM EDT
I didn't even know there was a debate. Not even the paper mentioned it that I recall. Allen has my support. Cox is a corrupt garbage RINO type trying to pretend to be a conservatrive. Also a transplant from Chicago. He even tried to buy the convention nomination (but still came short of the 60% threshold).

Neither will drop out, guaranteed. However, last I checked, they were statistically tied and ahead of everyone but Newsome, so one of them probably will still make the top two. The Democrats have split their vote even more than the Republicans did, which is the only saving grace for the latter.
Link Posted: 5/9/2018 1:18:18 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By bigstick61:
I didn't even know there was a debate. Not even the paper mentioned it that I recall. Allen has my support. Cox is a corrupt garbage RINO type trying to pretend to be a conservatrive. Also a transplant from Chicago. He even tried to buy the convention nomination (but still came short of the 60% threshold).

Neither will drop out, guaranteed. However, last I checked, they were statistically tied and ahead of everyone but Newsome, so one of them probably will still make the top two. The Democrats have split their vote even more than the Republicans did, which is the only saving grace for the latter.
View Quote
Good to hear...
Link Posted: 5/9/2018 2:35:04 PM EDT
Didn't watch it, didn't know it was happening. Not gonna' be surprised when it's newsom and villaraigosa as the final two. I mean I hope it doesn't go that way but...
Link Posted: 5/9/2018 5:57:35 PM EDT
I know it's early and polls are what they are. But this was a surprise.

Polls showed Travis in the lead after the debate.
Link Posted: 5/9/2018 7:16:10 PM EDT
The most recent poll that I've seen was from two weeks ago by Berkeley-IGS, sampled 1,738 CA likely voters in English and Spanish, had the voters polled "selected by a sampling method designed to resemble the state's demographic and regional profile", and had a +/-3.5% margin of error. I'm almost certain that I participated in this poll, as the questions were the exact same ones I was asked and it took place during the same timeframe. The poll showed the following:

General Statewide:

Newsom 30%
Cox 18%
Allen 16%
Villaraigosa 9%
Chiang 7%
Eastin 4%
Other/Unsure 16%

Democrats Statewide:

Newsom 51%
Villaraigosa 14%
Chiang 9%
Eastin 5%
Allen 3%
Cox 2%
Other/Unsure 16%

Republicans Statewide:

Cox 47%
Allen 38%
Newsom 2%
Villaraigosa 1%
Chiang 1%
Eastin 0%
Other/Unsure 11%

Non-Partisan/Other Parties Statewide:

Newsom 28%
Allen 14%
Cox 11%
Chiang 11%
Villaraigosa 9%
Eastin 4%
Other/Unsure 23%

Non-Hispanic Whites Statewide:

Newsom 35%
Cox 22%
Allen 17%
Chiang 6%
Villaraigosa 4%
Eastin 3%
Other/Unsure 13%

Hispanics Statewide:

Villaraigosa 26%
Newsom 16%
Allen 15%
Chiang 9%
Cox 4%
Eastin 4%
Other/Unsure 26%

Other Races/Ethnicities Combined Statewide:

Newsom 33%
Cox 22%
Allen 15%
Chiang 9%
Villaraigosa 6%
Eastin 5%
Other/Unsure 10%

General L.A. County:

Newsom 27%
Villaraigosa 14%
Chiang 14%
Cox 13%
Allen 10%
Eastin 5%
Other/Unsure 17%

General Other So. Cal.:

Newsom 27%
Cox 23%
Allen 19%
Villaraigosa 10%
Chiang 3%
Eastin 3%
Other/Unsure 15%

General Central Valley:

Allen 25%
Newsom 20%
Cox 16%
Chiang 12%
Villaraigosa 6%
Eastin 4%
Other/Unsure 17%

General S.F. Bay Area:

Newsom 49%
Cox 14%
Allen 7%
Villaraigosa 6%
Eastin 4%
Chiang 2%
Other/Unsure 18%

General Other Nor. Cal.:

Allen 32%
Cox 31%
Newsom 14%
Chiang 10%
Villaraigosa 7%
Eastin 1%
Other/Unsure 5%
Link Posted: 5/9/2018 10:03:58 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By operatorerror:
Didn't watch it, didn't know it was happening. Not gonna' be surprised when it's newsom and villaraigosa as the final two. I mean I hope it doesn't go that way but...
View Quote
We're fucked if that happens. I already have the bubble blacked out for Travis Allen , but who do we want for Lt. Gov?
Link Posted: 5/9/2018 10:30:44 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By a79flhrider:
We're fucked if that happens. I already have the bubble blacked out for Travis Allen , but who do we want for Lt. Gov?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By a79flhrider:
Originally Posted By operatorerror:
Didn't watch it, didn't know it was happening. Not gonna' be surprised when it's newsom and villaraigosa as the final two. I mean I hope it doesn't go that way but...
We're fucked if that happens. I already have the bubble blacked out for Travis Allen , but who do we want for Lt. Gov?
I've never heard of any of them?...
Link Posted: 5/10/2018 5:38:45 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 5/10/2018 5:38:59 PM EDT by blownfour]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By a79flhrider:

We're fucked if that happens. I already have the bubble blacked out for Travis Allen , but who do we want for Lt. Gov?
View Quote
Get your lube ready because that is what the case is going to be. They are the only two I see commercials for, most people are uninformed at best case scenario, and everyone knows who newsome is. Doesn’t even matter what is policies are, they know his name and will fill that box.
Link Posted: 5/14/2018 3:49:12 AM EDT
I don't usually go to Wikipedia for info, but apparently they have more recent polls than any other site posted. So there have been four since the one above; five total in the last month.

The UC Berkeley poll seems to have been conducted independently (as opposed to being commissioned by another party) and took place from April 16-22 It surveyed 1,738 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. The next poll was conducted for several groups by SurveyUSA (San Diego Union Tribune; KABC-TV Los Angeles; KFSN-TV Fresno; KGTV-TV San Diego; KPIX-TV San Francisco) and took place from April 19-23. It surveyed 520 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 5.5%. Next is a poll commissioned by John Cox's campaign and conducted by Smith Johnson Research from April 26-27. It sampled 533 voters and appears to have adjusted the numbers based on a simulation of turnout results or something like that. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. Next is a poll conducted by Big Data Poll for the Travis Allen campaign from April 27-29 and sampled 1,442 voters, weighting them based on likely voter status and enthusiasm, it appears. It has a margin of error of +/- 3%. The most recent is a Gravis Marketing poll commissioned by One America News and conducted from May 4-5. Sample size is 525 likely voters. Margin of error is +/- 4.3%.

So here are the results in order of the date of the polls followed by an average (rounded to the nearest percent), with candidates listed based on the average:

Newsom.....30%.....21%.....36%.....24%.....22%.....27%
Cox............18%.....15%.....20%.....11%.....23%.....17%
Villaraigosa...9%.....18%.......8%.....14%.....19%.....14%
Allen...........16%.....10%.....13%.....12%.......8%.....12%
Chiang..........7%.......9%......4%.......9%.......9%.......8%
Eastin...........4%.......1%......4%.......5%.......4%.......4%
Other............3%.......8%......0%.......---........2%.......3%
Unsure.........13%.....17%....16%.....26%.....13%.....17%

Even with the smallest margin of error applied to the average, Allen, Cox, and Villaraigosa are all in contention for second place, with Cox appearing to have the edge. Only one poll shows Newsom in second, and there he is statistically tied to Cox. Newsom is basically guaranteed a spot and will almost certainly be in 1st place. Chiang, Eastin, and the rest don't stand a chance of getting in the top 2 as things stand right now. There are enough uncertain voters that it'd be hard to make a good guess at who will come in second. Decent chance that it will be one of the two leading Republicans, though.
Link Posted: 5/14/2018 12:12:13 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RIP-Yataski:
I was not watching & Gavin probably liked it. Piss on that guy.

My concern is that there are around 20 candidates on the damn ballot. Allen & Cox will split the R vote fairly well, I assume. That's gonna hurt both of their chances. I hope that the many D candidates will get their share and hurt Gavin's numbers. I hope...
View Quote
This is what's pissing me off.

They can create a Gov/Lt.Gov team but instead they are fighting
Link Posted: 5/14/2018 1:47:25 PM EDT
Gavin took on the gun lobby... And won
Link Posted: 5/14/2018 3:39:15 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Chaingun:
This is what's pissing me off.

They can create a Gov/Lt.Gov team but instead they are fighting
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Chaingun:
Originally Posted By RIP-Yataski:
I was not watching & Gavin probably liked it. Piss on that guy.

My concern is that there are around 20 candidates on the damn ballot. Allen & Cox will split the R vote fairly well, I assume. That's gonna hurt both of their chances. I hope that the many D candidates will get their share and hurt Gavin's numbers. I hope...
This is what's pissing me off.

They can create a Gov/Lt.Gov team but instead they are fighting
That would have been great!...
Link Posted: 5/14/2018 3:40:53 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By endermend:
Gavin took on the gun lobby... And won
View Quote
Said so in his commercial, right? Piss on Newsome!!!
Link Posted: 5/18/2018 12:53:16 PM EDT
Allen or Cox, let's block vote

I like Allen but Cox would be fine.
Link Posted: 5/18/2018 3:08:07 PM EDT
I already filled in Allen on my ballot.
Link Posted: 5/18/2018 8:09:20 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By bigstick61:
I already filled in Allen on my ballot.
View Quote
Good so all 10 of us should block vote Allen
Link Posted: 5/18/2018 8:54:22 PM EDT
Apparently Trump endorsed Cox. What a shock. And people wonder why I didn't vote for that asshole.
Link Posted: 5/18/2018 9:23:56 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By bigstick61:
Apparently Trump endorsed Cox. What a shock. And people wonder why I didn't vote for that asshole.
View Quote
I just saw some photo of today's headlines posted in the Texas HS thread that had that as the first listing. Having two viable R's on the ballot is not good right now...
Link Posted: 5/18/2018 11:44:14 PM EDT
Allen has some problem with a complaint in 2013. One could expect that any Democrat he faces will bring this up. For that matter, I'm a little surprised the Dems haven't unleashed their FB, etc., attack dogs yet. OTOH, that would solidify a single Republican candidate so doesn't help them now, I'd guess.
Link Posted: 5/20/2018 11:41:55 AM EDT
My picks, FWIW.

Travis Allen
David Hernandez
Mark Mauser
K. Roditis
Greg Conlon
Steven Bailey
Steve Poizner
Erin Cruz
Link Posted: 5/26/2018 7:28:21 PM EDT
I was just in CA. Those commercials all suck.

Gavin will be your next Governor.

Link Posted: 5/27/2018 1:42:07 PM EDT
He took on the NRA...and won.

lol
Link Posted: 6/5/2018 6:01:15 PM EDT
Well, today's primary day. About to go vote for Allen and whoever sounds the least insane for all the other positions. The Props. aren't seemingly a big deal, other than I'll be voting Yes for Prop. 72 and probably No on 68.

Here's hoping Cox doesn't fuck us but I'm guessing that's what's going to happen.
Link Posted: 6/5/2018 8:26:22 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By jsmurphy62:
My picks, FWIW.

Travis Allen
David Hernandez
Mark Mauser
K. Roditis
Greg Conlon
Steven Bailey
Steve Poizner
Erin Cruz
View Quote
Solid picks. The US senator was a toss up for me unfortunately. I didn't see anything, anywhere about that attempt to unseat FDF...
Link Posted: 6/5/2018 10:28:48 PM EDT
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RIP-Yataski:
Solid picks. The US senator was a toss up for me unfortunately. I didn't see anything, anywhere about that attempt to unseat FDF...
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RIP-Yataski:
Originally Posted By jsmurphy62:
My picks, FWIW.

Travis Allen
David Hernandez
Mark Mauser
K. Roditis
Greg Conlon
Steven Bailey
Steve Poizner
Erin Cruz
Solid picks. The US senator was a toss up for me unfortunately. I didn't see anything, anywhere about that attempt to unseat FDF...
Cruz was a MAGA....probably wont make it....but i voted for her!
Top Top