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Posted: 9/16/2004 4:02:00 PM EST
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=3&u=/ap/20040916/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp

way down at the bottom of the article:

"The Pew poll found the race at 46-46 among registered voters, and 47-46 Bush among likely voters. A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 3 percent. "

Pew and harris are crappy skewed polls...gallup has been consistently with the trends.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:05:55 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2004 4:06:24 PM EST by IamtheNRA]
Pew polls are left-biased...ignore them...go with Gallup, Time, USA Today, CNN, or Fox News polls...of course, the only poll that really matters is the one on November 2...
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:07:23 PM EST
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:11:55 PM EST
Thank God. That looks much better. That must have been a Pew poll I saw earlier today on CNN that I posted here about. The percentages look identical.

You know, I wondered how Bush could have gone from a 10-15% lead to tied in one week. And such a drastic change would have been even more shocking considering Bush's electoral vote continued to increase. This makes me feel much better and now I can breath a bit easier.

Can anyone confirm whether or not the poll shown today on CNN's Inside Politics was indeed the Pew Poll?
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:18:37 PM EST
probably either harris or pew. One or both of them based their numbers on weekend polling (when you get less republican response) and even included a large number of just 'adults' (not RV or LV) to get their skewed results.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:20:19 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2004 4:20:52 PM EST by bastiat]
here's more on the pew poll from ambrose over at FR:

"Here's the interesting thing... PEW did two rounds of polling. First round was 54 to 38 W. Second round was 46 to 46 tie. PEW acknowledges they changed the questions in the second round., So if they skewed the second round to get the result they wanted, the first round corroborates Gallup..."

btw,the second round was the one done over the weekend ...that skews it to democrats.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:23:11 PM EST
I thought weekend polls tended to be more favorable for republicans, since often the males in the family are home. Or at least that's what I've heard. On the other hand, polls conducted during the day on weekdays is more likely to find soccer moms at home.

Not saying no women work or that only guys work, just that's what I've always heard about polls.

Either way, the Gallup seems to be a far more respected and accurate poll. And it seems to reflect more closely with what the electoral race is looking like. So I'm happy.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:24:30 PM EST
I was tellin' a buddy of mine yesterday that we just might be witnessing the WORST run Presidential campaign since '88.....................................COOL!
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:25:24 PM EST

Originally Posted By bastiat:
here's more on the pew poll from ambrose over at FR:

"Here's the interesting thing... PEW did two rounds of polling. First round was 54 to 38 W. Second round was 46 to 46 tie. PEW acknowledges they changed the questions in the second round., So if they skewed the second round to get the result they wanted, the first round corroborates Gallup..."

btw,the second round was the one done over the weekend ...that skews it to democrats.



Explain to me how polling on the weekends skews it to Democrats???
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:31:14 PM EST

Originally Posted By IamtheNRA:

Originally Posted By bastiat:
here's more on the pew poll from ambrose over at FR:

"Here's the interesting thing... PEW did two rounds of polling. First round was 54 to 38 W. Second round was 46 to 46 tie. PEW acknowledges they changed the questions in the second round., So if they skewed the second round to get the result they wanted, the first round corroborates Gallup..."

btw,the second round was the one done over the weekend ...that skews it to democrats.



Explain to me how polling on the weekends skews it to Democrats???



A higher % of democrats are home over the weekend purely due to demographics. Republicans tend to have families, etc, so they spend their weekends out with the kids, golfing, shopping, whatever.

There's also the belief that weekday AM polling gets more democrats (due to reaching the unemployed - no, really, that's one of the factors). Also reach more stay-at-home moms, but those could also be a % of republican moms, but those tend not to have time to take polls because of kids, also more likely to have caller id / call screening.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:36:42 PM EST
The problem pollsters don't account for is voter fraud.

Expect Bush to lose both Illinois and New Jersey right out of the box.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 4:41:30 PM EST
[Last Edit: 9/16/2004 4:42:20 PM EST by Greenhorn]
I don't know much about Nader's politics because they don't matter. Do Nader supporters tend to like Kerry or Bush?

Because I was thinking that if the Pew polls do not include Nader in their poll (which, from what I gathered, they do not), then that might skew the polls one way or another, depending on whether the Nader supporters would give their second choice for the polls or not.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 5:36:01 PM EST

Originally Posted By SS109:
The problem pollsters don't account for is voter fraud.

Expect Bush to lose both Illinois and New Jersey right out of the box.



not if the difference is overwhelming, or the dem base can be demoralized.

As much as there are crooked 527's out there registering people to beat bush, the DNC, run by the clintons, does NOT want kerry to win this year. Their efforts will be muted compared to 2000.

IF this keeps up, I really expect the DNC to move money and effort to congressional races from the pres. races.
Link Posted: 9/16/2004 5:38:15 PM EST
bye bye kerry.

Kerry is so very..... gone

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