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Posted: 10/31/2004 3:38:46 AM EDT
Link

This number has ONE day of the UBL tabe factored in

Story...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry are tied with two days remaining in a tense race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Sunday.

Kerry and Bush were deadlocked at 48 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, which included one day of polling taken after the airing of a videotape from Osama bin Laden. Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent on Saturday.

Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided as Bush and Kerry scour about 10 remaining battleground states to find the 270 electoral votes they need to win on Tuesday.

"Each man has consolidated his own base," pollster John Zogby said.

"Bush has good leads in the red states, among investors, and among Republicans, born-again Christians, men and married voters," he said. "Kerry has a solid lead in the blue states and trumps Bush among young voters, African Americans, Hispanics, Democrats, women, union voters and singles."

Bush earned a positive job performance rating from 46 percent and a negative rating from 53 percent.

The Massachusetts senator had a 51-41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.

At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by two points in the daily tracking poll.

The poll of 1,207 likely voters was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.

The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.2 percent.

Kerry had the lead on Saturday in six of 10 battleground states being polled separately, but Bush expanded his lead to five percentage points in the showdown state of Ohio.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.


Link Posted: 10/31/2004 3:41:18 AM EDT
This shows momentum for GW!!
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 3:44:20 AM EDT
Ohio also has gay marriage on the ballot.

Kharn
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 3:55:49 AM EDT
I'm wondering how much of the Kerry surge is...

1. From the weekend
2. Support in overwhelming Democratic states (i.e. California) getting on board, and have no real consequence on the final electoral totals  
3. Various Nader voters that are getting on the bus

Either way you cut it, all Bush needs is Florida, Ohio and some of the western states (Colorado, New Mexico) to pull this off!  
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 4:26:48 AM EDT

Quoted:
I'm wondering how much of the Kerry surge is...

1. From the weekend
2. Support in overwhelming Democratic states (i.e. California) getting on board, and have no real consequence on the final electoral totals  
3. Various Nader voters that are getting on the bus

Either way you cut it, all Bush needs is Florida, Ohio and some of the western states (Colorado, New Mexico) to pull this off!  



The Zogby numbers are show a Bush surge, but I don't trust his numbers. Mason-Dixon, Quinnipiac, Battleground and Rasmussen (during the week only) are number I trust.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 6:39:49 AM EDT

Quoted:
I'm wondering how much of the Kerry surge is...

1. From the weekend
2. Support in overwhelming Democratic states (i.e. California) getting on board, and have no real consequence on the final electoral totals  
3. Various Nader voters that are getting on the bus

Either way you cut it, all Bush needs is Florida, Ohio and some of the western states (Colorado, New Mexico) to pull this off!  



Democratic numbers always increase in polls starting Friday until late Sunday.
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 6:52:54 AM EDT
Link Posted: 10/31/2004 7:10:30 AM EDT

Quoted:
Ohio also has gay marriage on the ballot.

Kharn



+1...I really think that will help Bush in this state. If I'm not mistaken, Michigan has a similar issue on the ballot. Hopefully today in Church the base is being motivated!...
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