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Posted: 10/19/2004 12:50:22 PM EST
www.geekmedia.org/tradesports/index.php?lowNeutrality=40&highNeutrality=60&neutralColor=&bidPriceType=bidprice&submit=change+options


I really like this site, which culls data from Tradesports statee-by-state contracts and puts it in a form that's easily analyzed.

I do not have this set to the "defaults"

Instead, the link above brings you to a page where the "no call" situation applies to all states that are trading between 40 and 60. Of those states, Iowa (53ish - 7 evs), Ohio (56ish, 20 evs), and Wisconsin (53ish - 10 evs) are trading slightly in Bush's favor, while New Hampshire (40ish, 4 evs) is trading very much in Kerry's favor.

As it stands, Ohio is everything as the 20 EVs there will push bush right over the edge.

Or, Bush could win both Iowa and Wisconsin and still pull off an eeker with 271 Evs.

Problems with both scenarios will occur if Colorado passes 36 and splits its 9 EVs.

The tradeports analysis shows a slight trend toward bush in battleground state EVs from yesterday to today.

Caution: These state-by-state markets are pretty small, and they're subject to manipulation. Still, iit does seem interseting to see what investors are actually backing with real money.

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