The Singularity thread

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - The Singularity thread

Posted: 9/13/2005 5:29:20 AM EDT

Hey guys first post here. After completly digesting the technical forums I thought I would register and try to start some interesting conversation. Here goes.

http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Global/Singularity/

If you don't know what the Singularity is your not the only one. I recomend you take a few moments to read some of these articles. It will be very enlightening and should make for some good disscussion.

Posted: 9/13/2005 5:57:15 AM EDT

[#1]

Do you realy want to become a sigulartiy with any of the yahoo's on this board?

Now where is that Hyper Cube thread

Posted: 9/13/2005 6:03:24 AM EDT

[#2]

I know the next evolution of man isn't as interesting as if whether or not John Madden is a tard but...

Posted: 9/13/2005 6:31:23 AM EDT

[#3]

In the 1960s there was recognition of some of the implications of superhuman intelligence. I. J. Good wrote [11]:

Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine
that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any
any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of
these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could
design even better machines; there would then unquestionably
be an "intelligence explosion," and the intelligence of man
would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent
machine is the last invention that man need ever make,
provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to
keep it under control.
...
It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century,
an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be
the last invention that man need make.

You realize that I'm not going to get any work done since I'll be following the research of Dr. Vernor Vinge.

Posted: 9/13/2005 6:36:08 AM EDT

[#4]

Another pretty good guess from 1993

And yet there was another minority who
pointed to [7] [21], and conjectured that the computational competence
of single neurons may be far higher than generally believed. If so,
our present computer hardware might be as much as _ten_ orders of
magnitude short of the equipment we carry around in our heads. If this
is true (or for that matter, if the Penrose or Searle critique is
valid), we might never see a Singularity. Instead, in the early '00s
we would find our hardware performance curves beginning to level off
-- this because of our inability to automate the design work needed to
support further hardware improvements. We'd end up with some _very_
powerful hardware, but without the ability to push it further.

Moore's law finally came to an end in 2003 at 3.0 GHz.

He also forsaw the rise in use of RFID's to track items.

Posted: 9/13/2005 7:03:12 AM EDT

[#5]

I was under the impression that Moore's law was theoreticly going to reach a plateau in the near future but did not know that time had come. Does this have anything to do with dual core proccesing?

Posted: 9/13/2005 7:11:34 AM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:
I was under the impression that Moore's law was theoreticly going to reach a plateau in the near future but did not know that time had come. Does this have anything to do with dual core proccesing?

The clock frequencies aren't going higher. The material technology has not caught up yet, and the software (besides games) have not caught up yet.

We should be seeing 6 GHz processors or faster but we're not. There's nothing wrong with 64-bit dual core processors though, with the right software, they can do the job much better anyhow.

Posted: 9/13/2005 7:15:20 AM EDT

[#7]

What role will nonotech play in overcomeing the current technological hurtles?

Posted: 9/13/2005 7:18:02 AM EDT

[#8]

I predict that the 'looter' thread will collapse in on itself and become a singularity

Posted: 9/13/2005 7:18:13 AM EDT

[#9]

Quoted:
Moore's law finally came to an end in 2003 at 3.0 GHz.

He also forsaw the rise in use of RFID's to track items.

Moore's Law has nothing to do with processor speed. It deals with the complexity of an IC/unit cost. Experts (including Moore himself) are predicting the formula will hold true for at least 2 more decades.

The original quote:

The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer.

Posted: 9/13/2005 7:21:49 AM EDT

[#10]

As I thought.

Posted: 9/13/2005 7:28:12 AM EDT

[#11]

Maybee I can make this thread a little more ARFCOM friendly.

The Singularity has the potential to be the single biggest SHTF senario that i can think of, it is going to happen for sure, it can only be delayed and most experst are predicting around 2035. When the Sigularity ushers in the post-human world will you become a victim of it or how will you be staying ahead of the curve.

Posted: 9/13/2005 2:27:24 PM EDT

[#12]

interesting

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - The Singularity thread

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