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Posted: 2/15/2017 4:14:01 PM EDT
So we all know that leading up to the election the AR market (flooded though it may be) was booming. Post election the industry as a whole has seen a massive decline in sales. The question I'm trying to figure out is where do we see the AR market going this year? Will we see an uptick in alternative calibers like 6.5 Grendel, 22 Nosler, 204 Ruger, etc? Do you guys just think that the market is going to say flat until and slowly come back? What do y'all predict is going to happen? 
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:15:42 PM EDT
[#1]
Depends on machining costs and labor.  

If prices can be kept low (and not artificially low with the expectation of a return bounce) then the market will "keep on keeping on".

Otherwise, most people spent what money they had on "AR stuff".


HOWEVER, a decline in the number of companies and prices going up will reduce demand....which will reduce supply....and eventually longer term will raise the value of what's already out there and what is to come.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:15:56 PM EDT
[#2]
I have fellings of salad bar.

Stock up while the heat is off, if we lose congress and the White House in 2020 they will hit back harder than they ever have before.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:16:42 PM EDT
[#3]
No one I know has purchased any AR-15 parts at full price for almost 12-18 months.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:16:56 PM EDT
[#4]
Quoted:
So we all know that leading up to the election the AR market (flooded though it may be) was booming. Post election the industry as a whole has seen a massive decline in sales. The question I'm trying to figure out is where do we see the AR market going this year? Will we see an uptick in alternative calibers like 6.5 Grendel, 22 Nosler, 204 Ruger, etc? Do you guys just think that the market is going to say flat until and slowly come back? What do y'all predict is going to happen? 
View Quote
I'm not Mr. Moneybags, so I won't be getting any other guns. But if this means cheaper parts, ammo and accessories, that's good for me.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:16:57 PM EDT
[#5]
Is it in decline? Although that makes sense logically from the last several years, I'm not actually sure it is. Would be nice to hear some of the industry guys chime in.

I'd like to get at least some anecdotal reports of its current state before I make a prediction. I'm a market analyst by profession. Like many other things, the firearms industry seems to be somewhat unique in that there are huge gaps in market intelligence beyond what gets reported by the ATF.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:17:38 PM EDT
[#6]
The market is flooded.  Nothing is moving.  I don't see that changing.  I predict more AR companies will be shutting down.  

I don't know a soul who is even considering an AR right now.  Everyone has one that wants one.  A lot of them would like to sell the ones they have.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:19:45 PM EDT
[#7]
Stocking up on High end stuff
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:20:47 PM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The market is flooded.  Nothing is moving.  I don't see that changing.  I predict more AR companies will be shutting down.  

I don't know a soul who is even considering an AR right now.  Everyone has one that wants one.  A lot of them would like to sell the ones they have.
View Quote


Pretty much this^
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:21:55 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Pretty much this^
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
The market is flooded.  Nothing is moving.  I don't see that changing.  I predict more AR companies will be shutting down.  

I don't know a soul who is even considering an AR right now.  Everyone has one that wants one.  A lot of them would like to sell the ones they have.


Pretty much this^


I saw NEW AR's at the last show as low as $449.  And they just sat.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:23:39 PM EDT
[#10]
I work for one of the larger firearm distributors.  Black rifle sales have all but come to a halt since the election.  Some distributors that increased their inventory by huge amounts banking on a Hillary win are now selling off guns at a 10% loss.  That makes other distributors and dealers reluctant to purchase from a manufacturer when they see guns being sold they can't make ANY money on.  I am certain we will see many doors close in this industry over the next 18 months or so.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:26:50 PM EDT
[#11]
you know how all the a-hole post in the SKS threads and say they wish they would have stocked up when they were 79.99 or stocked up on M/Ns when they were 69.00 or mausers when....


well. the day will come when the same A-holes will be bitching about their shortsightedness when ARs were 450.00.

buy what you want when you want but don't bitch when they are gone.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:32:49 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Pretty much this^
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
The market is flooded.  Nothing is moving.  I don't see that changing.  I predict more AR companies will be shutting down.  

I don't know a soul who is even considering an AR right now.  Everyone has one that wants one.  A lot of them would like to sell the ones they have.


Pretty much this^

Yep, +1 to that.  Personally, at the moment I'm only interested in fancy pants Euro guns that are more toys than anything else.  And prices on those are much more fixed than the fluctuating AR market.

It's going to be a bloodbath this year.  It'll require affordable innovation to make new things appealing and get buyers out.  That $1800+ AR with the piston is going to be a hard sell to a market conditioned to PSA's at $400-$500.  It adds more but how much and at what cost?

I'm just hoping to take advantage of ammo deals as dealers get desperate to convert sitting inventory into cash.  Can't eat cases of 5.56 marked at 2013 prices.

After the bloodletting, supply will contract to what the market will support, similar to the old times on ARF where ABC were who you considered, and everything else was fringe.  It'll just be a new "ABC" set.  As the 2020 election comes closer, things will probably be start ticking up in the months before, and depending on the outcome, either full 2013-style panic or a return to flatness.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:33:14 PM EDT
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
you know how all the a-hole post in the SKS threads and say they wish they would have stocked up when they were 79.99 or stocked up on M/Ns when they were 69.00 or mausers when....


well. the day will come when the same A-holes will be bitching about their shortsightedness when ARs were 450.00.

buy what you want when you want but don't bitch when they are gone.
View Quote


Eh, no one really needs more than a few firearms with spare parts anyway. More than that you are just collecting or wasting money.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:35:49 PM EDT
[#14]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The market is flooded.  Nothing is moving.  I don't see that changing.  I predict more AR companies will be shutting down.  

I don't know a soul who is even considering an AR right now.  Everyone has one that wants one.  A lot of them would like to sell the ones they have.
View Quote


That's kind of where I am at with it.  shortly after the election I sold an ar because I was tired of it.  It went on gunbroker from an LGS.  I checked listings at that time to see what was fair.

Holy Cow!  It was like there was enough AR's to arm an entire country listed.  They weren't moving either most had decent pricing too.  I lowered the price to just a bit above what I paid for the receiver and handguard and then someone local bought it.

I'm down to 1.5 ARs now and this is not likely to change anytime soon.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:37:43 PM EDT
[#15]
The suppressor bubble has popped thanks to HPA and 41P/F
The AR bubble will pop this year.


I'm planning to buy 50 lowers this year because at these prices, why not?

I feel bad for springfield armory and their new saint ar15

They were the very last through the door, ready to party and everyone else is already passed out
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:40:43 PM EDT
[#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Eh, no one really needs more than a few firearms with spare parts anyway. More than that you are just collecting or wasting money.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
you know how all the a-hole post in the SKS threads and say they wish they would have stocked up when they were 79.99 or stocked up on M/Ns when they were 69.00 or mausers when....


well. the day will come when the same A-holes will be bitching about their shortsightedness when ARs were 450.00.

buy what you want when you want but don't bitch when they are gone.


Eh, no one really needs more than a few firearms with spare parts anyway. More than that you are just collecting or wasting money.


I never bought an SKS when they were 80 bucks but I did buy one for a little over 100 when I was in high school.  I thought it was fun but unless I wanted to resale it for 400 down the line I don't see a point to me holding on to it.  Even after all these years I'm glad I sold it.  My 223 saiga... not so much.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:42:34 PM EDT
[#17]
I've got my dozen, plus 7 more stripped lowers, and parts, and whatnot.  I'm ok with companies unloading stuff cheap, I'll probably step in and relieve them of excess inventory.  I don't need to move product, so I can sit on things for a while.  Enjoy them, and then sell them later if I ever feel like it, and either make all my money back, or a small profit, or a large profit if the .gov really goes full retard. 
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:45:00 PM EDT
[#18]
I'm waiting for prices to come back to reality on higher end makes like DD before I buy one. 
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:45:29 PM EDT
[#19]
This summer is going to be awesome as a consumer. Summers are always predictably slow barring any mass shooting or legislation being brought up. But i predict summer will be a blood letting and a massive market contraction of the firearms manufacturing in the US. Already im seeing complete AR's at $399.99 shipped. Even .22lr at $0.05 a round shipped.

Not only will we be seeing massive deals but you will be seeing some big online retailers and local dealers closing up shop. I dont have any leads on who it could possibly be. But i see some seriously big changes this summer.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:45:39 PM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
you know how all the a-hole post in the SKS threads and say they wish they would have stocked up when they were 79.99 or stocked up on M/Ns when they were 69.00 or mausers when....


well. the day will come when the same A-holes will be bitching about their shortsightedness when ARs were 450.00.

buy what you want when you want but don't bitch when they are gone.
View Quote


 This man gets it. Buy it cheap, stack it deep.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:45:49 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I work for one of the larger firearm distributors.  Black rifle sales have all but come to a halt since the election.  Some distributors that increased their inventory by huge amounts banking on a Hillary win are now selling off guns at a 10% loss.  That makes other distributors and dealers reluctant to purchase from a manufacturer when they see guns being sold they can't make ANY money on.  I am certain we will see many doors close in this industry over the next 18 months or so.
View Quote
I work for a manufacturer, I won't say who because we are not a sponsor of the site and I don't want this to be seen as advertising or anything. We have seen a small increase in the sales of 6.5 Grendel and our big bore stuff but it seems that 5.56 and 300 blk are damn near dead. I've been trying to figure out if I should push for a couple of new calibers or if we are just going to have to see what happens. 
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:46:06 PM EDT
[#22]
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:49:26 PM EDT
[#23]
I have13 extra lowers and 150 pmags

im just starting
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:52:16 PM EDT
[#24]
Quoted:
So we all know that leading up to the election the AR market (flooded though it may be) was booming. Post election the industry as a whole has seen a massive decline in sales. The question I'm trying to figure out is where do we see the AR market going this year? Will we see an uptick in alternative calibers like 6.5 Grendel, 22 Nosler, 204 Ruger, etc? Do you guys just think that the market is going to say flat until and slowly come back? What do y'all predict is going to happen? 
View Quote


specialty calibers are for hacks like us who frequent gun boards......the real numbers are driven by the general public.....think about the run on .22 from a few years ago. As far as predicting trends it's hard to say but gun sales in recent years have been driven by fear not logic. When the rhetoric gets amped up so do prices and supply goes down. I wouldn't be betting my future on bcgs or lpks but I'm guilty of stashing away a few lowers
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:59:36 PM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


I never bought an SKS when they were 80 bucks but I did buy one for a little over 100 when I was in high school.  I thought it was fun but unless I wanted to resale it for 400 down the line I don't see a point to me holding on to it.  Even after all these years I'm glad I sold it.  My 223 saiga... not so much.
View Quote
I sold my $99 yugo sks's for $300 and used
the money to build more AKs.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:05:57 PM EDT
[#26]
Frankly, I am burned out on AR's and guns in general.

I've taken a slight interest in lever guns and revolvers, but in general it's all pretty meh.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:06:17 PM EDT
[#27]
I plan to go in hard on 6.5grendel in various configurations. Not for stocking up but more to consolidate on that caliber for SBR, and 16"s for when my children can get into shooting.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:06:53 PM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I sold my $99 yugo sks's for $300 and used
the money to build more AKs.
View Quote


You build them from stamped receivers?  I ask because I've never done it before but it looks interesting.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:07:02 PM EDT
[#29]
I see a slow cheap sell off over the next year or so as many of the smaller less diversified players close up. With that we might see some realignment of companies and may settle in on a few big names and a couple of smaller more niche players. I can only hope that this will continue for 8 years and the industry might feel more like the late 90's without the ban shit.

I will probably just upgrade as I can when I see deals and do not expect to buy anymore AR platform rifles as I seem to have plenty. If some of the other firearms come down , I may pick up a Bren or an Aug if things gets ugly cheap out there
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:10:27 PM EDT
[#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Frankly, I am burned out on AR's and guns in general.

I've taken a slight interest in lever guns and revolvers, but in general it's all pretty meh.
View Quote


Same here. I got burned out on AR's and 5.56 calibers. Now down to 1 AR. Went for range toys like Mp5 clones and the evo scorpion and had more fun. After the election, Im just meh too.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:11:21 PM EDT
[#31]
I'm looking forward to picking up another AR later this year at rock bottom fire sale prices.  Going to be a hard year for manufacturers, I see a few more going the way of Olympic Arms.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:12:36 PM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Frankly, I am burned out on AR's and guns in general.

I've taken a slight interest in lever guns and revolvers, but in general it's all pretty meh.
View Quote


Kind of in the same place.  I've got some kits and parts to build things, but no real urge.  Still need to get a 45-70 though and maybe this year will be reloading stuff.  Did buy a house though, so all my gun money goes into shit like "Fuck carpet.  I should install hardwood."...
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:13:10 PM EDT
[#33]
The ONLY area that may be holding steady price wise MAY be ammo (NATO calibers) if defense spending goes up here and other NATO nations follow Mattis' statements today.  But I also don't know how much back stock the big beltway suppliers have built up since we're not shooting a billion rounds a month. 
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:15:06 PM EDT
[#34]
It's all PCC's from here on out.

What else do you do when you have an entire safe with nothing but AR's
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:17:47 PM EDT
[#35]
I just received a PSA upper today.  Prices have become so attractive I wanted something with a free float rail to upgrade from my basic DPMS (I'm very budget oriented).

The deals are everywhere right now so I wanted to capitalize.

Before the election I stocked up on reloading components in case she won which would have probably put a big crunch on powder and primers.  I didn't have any spare money to buy up more mags and parts...thankfully I got lucky.  I think all I purchased in the fall were 2 - 40rd pmags because I didn't have any and wanted a few for 3gun.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:29:25 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The market is flooded.  Nothing is moving.  I don't see that changing.  I predict more AR companies will be shutting down.  

I don't know a soul who is even considering an AR right now.  Everyone has one that wants one.  A lot of them would like to sell the ones they have.
View Quote

Myself and several of my friends all want more AR's or uppers/lowers, but we'll be building from parts most likely, not buying factory rifles.

I think there's always going to be people wanting stuff, in our case money is the limiting factor to our gun purchases, not a lack of wanting to buy!
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:31:43 PM EDT
[#37]
Quoted:
So we all know that leading up to the election the AR market (flooded though it may be) was booming. Post election the industry as a whole has seen a massive decline in sales. The question I'm trying to figure out is where do we see the AR market going this year? Will we see an uptick in alternative calibers like 6.5 Grendel, 22 Nosler, 204 Ruger, etc? Do you guys just think that the market is going to say flat until and slowly come back? What do y'all predict is going to happen? 
View Quote

Sales have not declined massively.

That's a misperception of the market.

We are looking at post Obama era like we did Clinton AWB, only much bigger.

Millions upon millions of people have purchased AR15s and semi-automatic handguns, hunting rifles, scopes, mounts, ammo, cases, era pro, eye pro, slings, lights, safes, cabinets, etc.

Firearms range attendance has increased.

Many people have just barely gotten into AR15s and are still assembling them, haven't bought a case, optics, mounts, mags, or ammo yet.

It only balloons out of control form here on out because of population size and healthy population growth in the US, with very low unemployment rates.

Alternate calibers in the AR15 and the AR10 market are very active, as are the high volume, low cost AR15 markets.

New trends in billet receivers are also hard to keep in stock for the seasoned AR15 consumer who wants something more than her typical forged receiver set, and Cerakote can only go so far to make it personal.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:38:03 PM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The market is flooded.  Nothing is moving.  I don't see that changing.  I predict more AR companies will be shutting down.  

I don't know a soul who is even considering an AR right now.  Everyone has one that wants one.  A lot of them would like to sell the ones they have.
View Quote

Seems like shitty timing for Springfield and Savage to get into the game, don't it?
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:39:12 PM EDT
[#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


I saw NEW AR's at the last show as low as $449.  And they just sat.
View Quote
What brand?  That may be part of it.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:40:19 PM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
It's all PCC's from here on out.

What else do you do when you have an entire safe with nothing but AR's
View Quote
I'm looking at a 9mm upper and a skorpion, just waiting for the right price.  Unless Trump starts a trade war with the Czech republic, I don't have much incentive to jump early on this one.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:46:01 PM EDT
[#41]
I want to see a ACR in FDE going for  $ 800 bucks....lol
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:46:32 PM EDT
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The market is flooded.  Nothing is moving.  I don't see that changing.  I predict more AR companies will be shutting down.  

I don't know a soul who is even considering an AR right now.  Everyone has one that wants one.  A lot of them would like to sell the ones they have.
View Quote
Higher end stuff  is still selling but the cheap and used stuff is sitting unless you give it away
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 5:56:13 PM EDT
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Kind of in the same place.  I've got some kits and parts to build things, but no real urge.  Still need to get a 45-70 though and maybe this year will be reloading stuff.  Did buy a house though, so all my gun money goes into shit like "Fuck carpet.  I should install hardwood."...
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Frankly, I am burned out on AR's and guns in general.

I've taken a slight interest in lever guns and revolvers, but in general it's all pretty meh.


Kind of in the same place.  I've got some kits and parts to build things, but no real urge.  Still need to get a 45-70 though and maybe this year will be reloading stuff.  Did buy a house though, so all my gun money goes into shit like "Fuck carpet.  I should install hardwood."...


I busted out laughing as I am installing hardwoods in our (new to us) house next week. I can't afford to keep building rifles and remodel a house.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 6:00:50 PM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

Seems like shitty timing for Springfield and Savage to get into the game, don't it?
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
The market is flooded.  Nothing is moving.  I don't see that changing.  I predict more AR companies will be shutting down.  

I don't know a soul who is even considering an AR right now.  Everyone has one that wants one.  A lot of them would like to sell the ones they have.

Seems like shitty timing for Springfield and Savage to get into the game, don't it?

Savage already can't keep up with demand for the MSR-10, and it hasn't even been reviewed yet.

I don't know about Springfield.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 6:01:12 PM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I'm looking at a 9mm upper and a skorpion, just waiting for the right price.  Unless Trump starts a trade war with the Czech republic, I don't have much incentive to jump early on this one.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
It's all PCC's from here on out.

What else do you do when you have an entire safe with nothing but AR's
I'm looking at a 9mm upper and a skorpion, just waiting for the right price.  Unless Trump starts a trade war with the Czech republic, I don't have much incentive to jump early on this one.


I honestly can't say enough good things about the PSA 9mm LRBHO glock mag AR I built.

Under 600 and it's my fav range toy.

Highly recommend!
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 6:06:36 PM EDT
[#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

Savage already can't keep up with demand for the MSR-10, and it hasn't even been reviewed yet.

I don't know about Springfield.
View Quote
Yeah, but the MSR-10 looks like a kickass long-range rifle.

My point was more to the standard AR-15 style rifles.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 6:12:17 PM EDT
[#47]
I'm still buying stuff, but I always do it at a snails pace anyway so I don't expect it will make much of a dent.

I want to build myself a 9mm AR and get a few more suppressors eventually.

With Trump in office I'm in no hurry and with inventories as robust as they are right now I don't feel like I have to be to find decent prices.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 6:18:54 PM EDT
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I work for one of the larger firearm distributors.  Black rifle sales have all but come to a halt since the election.  Some distributors that increased their inventory by huge amounts banking on a Hillary win are now selling off guns at a 10% loss.  That makes other distributors and dealers reluctant to purchase from a manufacturer when they see guns being sold they can't make ANY money on.  I am certain we will see many doors close in this industry over the next 18 months or so.
View Quote


I hope you dont lose your job.  But I do hope your distributor suffers a buttload if they are one of the many distributors who have put the hurt on smaller FFLs.  I have been hurt by major distributors for being a rural "small" gunsmith.  
Time for payback.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 6:24:07 PM EDT
[#49]
I have AR fatigue.  I got my ARs set up now they just need ammo.   I want to buy other stuff now but  I do see other calibers gaining steam
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 6:26:17 PM EDT
[#50]
Buy em cheap and stack em deep!!!!!  One day you'll be happy you did.
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