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Quoted: Current cars are more fuel efficient than those in 1973. A quick search gives the average mpg of cars in 1973 as 13.5 mpg. That does help. Increased fuel economy helps but there are millions more cars on the road now. Then most packaging wasn't plastic then either. We use expentionally more fossil fuels now. |
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Quoted: Not even close . I was there and remember most of it . My dad would get home from work and go down to get gas and it would take at least an hour . The station was like 8 min away . Yes Lines . Often limited to 10 gal . Sometimes they ran out . OPEC was ALL actively against the US and Not supplying . At least from what I remember . Has OP had to wait in any line for gas . Or been limited to rations ? No Sir I bet not . You haven't seen anything yet . |
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Quoted: Not many drive cars anymore,my Jeep gets about 12 mpg around town with 19-20 on the highway. But overall the vehicles are more efficient that they were 50 years ago. Most people in my area are driving pickups or suvs with some driving Teslas,then you have the Mustangs,Cameros and Dodge muscle cars. Quoted: Quoted: Current cars are more fuel efficient than those in 1973. A quick search gives the average mpg of cars in 1973 as 13.5 mpg. That does help. Not many drive cars anymore,my Jeep gets about 12 mpg around town with 19-20 on the highway. But overall the vehicles are more efficient that they were 50 years ago. Most people in my area are driving pickups or suvs with some driving Teslas,then you have the Mustangs,Cameros and Dodge muscle cars. My Subaru Crosstrek is a car. It definitely ain’t a truck. Tons of small econobox sedans around the Chicago suburbs that I see. Lots of trucks and massive SUVs, but also a lot of Teslas. |
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Quoted: And with high prices of fuel, it's still very important to be in the office and not working at home, because you know for reasons...  High food and energy prices and with very high gas and diesel costs, the road to recovery and helping out the middle class is on track!  I see that Australia and NZ folks are being urged to WFH if they can. Same in SE Asia nations. But those places have fuel shortages or are looking at them happening. Wouldn't happen in the US unless the govt mandated it, such as during the plague lockdown. We're probably not going to run out of fuel, but unless gas prices went through the roof, I highly doubt very many US employers who've refused to let employees WFH are going to change their minds now. I can definitely tell you it ain't going to happen where I work. Owners WFH themselves regularly, but don't allow anyone else to do it, except for 1-2 that moved out of state. |
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The United States is a leading producer of nitrogen-based fertilizer, with production reaching approximately 13.6 million metric tons The U.S. is a major urea producer, leveraging abundant natural gas, with key production led by CF Industries, Nutrien, and Koch Industries The United States produces roughly 13.5 to 16.4 million metric tons of anhydrous ammonia annually. As a top global producer, the U.S. relies on this output mainly (about 88%) for agricultural fertilizer, supported by a production capacity that frequently runs at 90% utilization. Most production is concentrated near natural gas sources |
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The crisis was both real and partially amplified by policy and panic. The shortages people experienced were mostly caused by politics, supply cuts, and market distortions, not a literal exhaustion of oil reserves. The supply chains were slow to adapt back then and they didnt have the modern logistics and technology. I remember when the 55 mph speed limit was pushed to try and conserver fuel. I think the stations in my home state allowed fuel purchases based on your plate number for even and odd days. |
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Quoted: Mostly because this post I wrote. https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Foxtrot08-makes-an-oil-thread-/5-2724893/?page=43&#i116450897 I "see" more now. Thanks! |
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Quoted: I "see" more now. Thanks! Quoted: Quoted: Mostly because this post I wrote. https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Foxtrot08-makes-an-oil-thread-/5-2724893/?page=43&#i116450897 I "see" more now. Thanks! Add in that tankers move as fast as a person does on a bicycle. The last tankers are unloading at their respective ports now. And will be either idled. Or contracted to do something else. Not go back through the strait. So you have 60-90 days after the strait reopens, for tanker traffic to resume as normal. Another 30 days from there for product to get loaded. Then 20-30 days after that for them to hit their respective off loading ports. From there. You have a week to three weeks for product to hit the customer for production. Then all the down stream / final mile after respective production tine. So at best, you’re 150 days out now. Maybe 200+ days. Every day this continues on the critical products. Less reserves there are in the system. The more existing inventories / other suppliers where possible will be short. And once you run out, you run out. There’s no replacement production for helium / base oils / plastics / urea / etc. etc. etc. Which is going to cause several orders of effects. The U.S. is going to begin to get stretched. As we export more crude oil / jet fuel / finished products. Along with petrochemical aspects. Urea, plastics, etc. Which means our prices will rise as other countries buy from us vs the Middle East. That, will lead to some shortages. |
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Quoted: Mostly because this post I wrote. https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Foxtrot08-makes-an-oil-thread-/5-2724893/?page=43&#i116450897 @Foxtrot, appreciate you posting those slides. I note the deck was prepared by Roland Berger. FWIW, I have considerable negative prior experience with them in corporate strategic decision-making. Their tendency is to overreact and over-estimate timelines. They were always "DOOOOOOOM - you should pay us more fees to navigate it". Obviously your insight is that pricing is going nuts, which is consistent with them. Having said that, if there is a path to make $, I will bet the companies and Gulf States will get their shit in a sock faster than most think after this conflict. In other words, I expect something of a mess for a few months, then the system will gradually correct. It may tip Europe into recession. Hopefully, they will consider prior US methods of spending our way out of recessions with things like defense programs. A recession there won't be great for the US, but not catastrophic. I will say that a deck like that R-B one is a bit reminiscent of the infamous Sequoia Capital "fork stuck in a pig" deck that circulated in '08-'09. The capital community was absolutely convinced that the financial world was about to end. Here's their deck from back then. Things got sporty, but not nearly as bad as what Sequoia predicted. ETA: To your very valid point on tanker lag time, things like that were where I always made hay in my career. I always took lead times into account, where many colleagues and competitors missed it. If I was an exec at one of those companies, I would hedge by turning around at least some empty tankers and parking them, if needed, somewhere safe, but closer to the strait. When everything got unstuck, I'd be the first guy with full tankers and charging a premium because I can deliver now, even if I did have to pay for idle tankers for a while. Stack them like stacking stock options, phased over time. Things would get more expensive, but the chain would not collapse. There might be some people smarter than me running some of those outfits. I wonder if Roland Berger would hire me now? 
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Quoted: @Foxtrot, appreciate you posting those slides. I note the deck was prepared by Roland Berger. FWIW, I have considerable negative prior experience with them in corporate strategic decision-making. Their tendency is to overreact and over-estimate timelines. They were always "DOOOOOOOM - you should pay us more fees to navigate it". Obviously your insight is that pricing is going nuts, which is consistent with them. Having said that, if there is a path to make $, I will bet the companies and Gulf States will get their shit in a sock faster than most think after this conflict. In other words, I expect something of a mess for a few months, then the system will gradually correct. It may tip Europe into recession. Hopefully, they will consider prior US methods of spending our way out of recessions with things like defense programs. A recession there won't be great for the US, but not catastrophic. I will say that a deck like that R-B one is a bit reminiscent of the infamous Sequoia Capital "fork stuck in a pig" deck that circulated in '08-'09. The capital community was absolutely convinced that the financial world was about to end. Here's their deck from back then. Things got sporty, but not nearly as bad as what Sequoia predicted. ETA: To your very valid point on tanker lag time, things like that were where I always made hay in my career. I always took lead times into account, where many colleagues and competitors missed it. If I was an exec at one of those companies, I would hedge by turning around at least some empty tankers and parking them, if needed, somewhere safe, but closer to the strait. When everything got unstuck, I'd be the first guy with full tankers and charging a premium because I can deliver now, even if I did have to pay for idle tankers for a while. Stack them like stacking stock options. Things would get more expensive, but the chain would not collapse. There might be some people smarter than me running some of those outfits. I wonder if Roland Berger would hire me now? Quoted: Quoted: Mostly because this post I wrote. https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Foxtrot08-makes-an-oil-thread-/5-2724893/?page=43&#i116450897 @Foxtrot, appreciate you posting those slides. I note the deck was prepared by Roland Berger. FWIW, I have considerable negative prior experience with them in corporate strategic decision-making. Their tendency is to overreact and over-estimate timelines. They were always "DOOOOOOOM - you should pay us more fees to navigate it". Obviously your insight is that pricing is going nuts, which is consistent with them. Having said that, if there is a path to make $, I will bet the companies and Gulf States will get their shit in a sock faster than most think after this conflict. In other words, I expect something of a mess for a few months, then the system will gradually correct. It may tip Europe into recession. Hopefully, they will consider prior US methods of spending our way out of recessions with things like defense programs. A recession there won't be great for the US, but not catastrophic. I will say that a deck like that R-B one is a bit reminiscent of the infamous Sequoia Capital "fork stuck in a pig" deck that circulated in '08-'09. The capital community was absolutely convinced that the financial world was about to end. Here's their deck from back then. Things got sporty, but not nearly as bad as what Sequoia predicted. ETA: To your very valid point on tanker lag time, things like that were where I always made hay in my career. I always took lead times into account, where many colleagues and competitors missed it. If I was an exec at one of those companies, I would hedge by turning around at least some empty tankers and parking them, if needed, somewhere safe, but closer to the strait. When everything got unstuck, I'd be the first guy with full tankers and charging a premium because I can deliver now, even if I did have to pay for idle tankers for a while. Stack them like stacking stock options. Things would get more expensive, but the chain would not collapse. There might be some people smarter than me running some of those outfits. I wonder if Roland Berger would hire me now? There are definitely tanker companies making the same bet you said to hedge on. The unknown, so far, is the extent of damages to the production, refining and petrochemical plants that have been struck. Certain parts may be months or more away. Certain repairs may take a long time, no matter how much slave labor you have. If you’re waiting for certain valves from Germany, or a new hydrocracker from the U.S. well… it could be a minute before those hit the shores. Get installed and come back online. Assuming you can even take a crash shutdown refinery back up in any bit of a timely fashion. Do I think it’s going to be 5 years like RB says? No. Definitely not. That’s a bit too doom for me. But I feel this bomb going off for the rest of the year. My gut feeling says we should find some semblance of “normal” in Q2 of 2027 at this rate. Of course, the longer it goes on, the more facility damage there is, etc etc. the longer it will take. |