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Posted: 10/10/2018 5:38:39 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Thats a scary but plausible theory. With no discernible rise in inflation, interest rate increases SHOULD cease/stop. If what you say is true, they won't. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 5:40:45 PM EDT
[#2]
Buying opportunity. But then, I went through this.
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Posted: 10/10/2018 5:40:48 PM EDT
[#3]
What's crazy is Trump ran on being against QE and railed against Janet Yellen.
Now he wants to act like a liberal with the Fed. Nutjob. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 5:43:58 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What's crazy is Trump ran on being against QE and railed against Janet Yellen. Now he wants to act like a liberal with the Fed. Nutjob. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 5:44:31 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's been the plan by the fed reserve to keep increasing interest rates, till they tank the economy, and blame Trump for it. remember - the feds were completely afraid of doing anything with interest rates, and they even bought back their own notes at sales, to keep the economy going for fbho. now that the dems are not in office, they have nothing to worry about, and have kept raising rates, faster than what they should have. and now they are begining to see the results they want. a collapsing economy while Trump is in office. next from the left: See! Trump's policies don't work. WE NEED TO INCREASE TAXES NOW TO SAVE THE ECONOMY! BASIC INCOME FOR THE POOR NOW! etc.... The recession was 10 years ago. And collapsing economy eh?? 
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Posted: 10/10/2018 5:47:56 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Trump controls M3 and the Fed Reserve Rate? Loyalty is not his strong suit. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 6:01:16 PM EDT
[#7]
If so I will have a good chunk of income freed up to buy when my refinance goes through. Time to pump some sauce into dem gainz.
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Posted: 10/10/2018 6:15:26 PM EDT
[#8]
Trump: "Hey Rand, I hear you want to audit the Fed?"
Rand: "Sure do." Trump: "Take some IRS and DOJ boys over and have at it." Fed: "Well fuck..." |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 6:19:37 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Then what do they do with the cash? Sure take some profit but then you’ll put it in other securities. Nobody is just going to sit on large amounts of cash. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 6:53:55 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
@4v50 Can you please go into more detail? I mean how does raising interest rates lead to money and credit contraction, besides defaults and people choosing/having to borrow less? How is it global? I may have an idea but I could not articulate it Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Wait for the FOMC to raise interest rate by .25% in Dec. they are taking away the punchbowl and with it, liquidity. It’s global too. Can you please go into more detail? I mean how does raising interest rates lead to money and credit contraction, besides defaults and people choosing/having to borrow less? How is it global? I may have an idea but I could not articulate it By global I mean other central banks are doing the same thing. Remember too that there is supposed to be three more .25% interest rates increases in 2019. Cost of servicing loans denominated in USD/FedRes Notes gets more expensive (remember Hungary when they denominated their debt in Swiss Francs but paid in Euros? Their payments went up 20% when the Swiss franc decoupled from the euro). The emerging markets are crashing now (Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, Brazil) and it will spread. Monday doesn’t have to be on a Monday. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 6:56:44 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Weird thing is, every 10-20 year old on the planet has it loaded on their phone. They have to make $$$ sooner or later I would think. I spend a lot of time in schools, EVERY kid uses it daily. Users != profit |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 7:17:48 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Ehhh we've done this a few times this year? I think it's usually been more than a week tops. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 7:22:06 PM EDT
[#13]
Quoted:
Sure starting to seem like it. It's been a total blood bath lately for tech stocks in particular. serious question |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 7:24:50 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tightens the money supply. No more free (when it was ZIRP) money with which to buy assets/equities. Big boys bail have been selling off, leaving the top 5-10% of the gains for the small fish to hold the bag. Remember the sell offs before the crash of ‘29? Same thing with the Fed once again tightening the money supply. By global I mean other central banks are doing the same thing. Remember too that there is supposed to be three more .25% interest rates increases in 2019. Cost of servicing loans denominated in USD/FedRes Notes gets more expensive (remember Hungary when they denominated their debt in Swiss Francs but paid in Euros? Their payments went up 20% when the Swiss franc decoupled from the euro). The emerging markets are crashing now (Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, Brazil) and it will spread. Monday doesn’t have to be on a Monday. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Wait for the FOMC to raise interest rate by .25% in Dec. they are taking away the punchbowl and with it, liquidity. It’s global too. Can you please go into more detail? I mean how does raising interest rates lead to money and credit contraction, besides defaults and people choosing/having to borrow less? How is it global? I may have an idea but I could not articulate it By global I mean other central banks are doing the same thing. Remember too that there is supposed to be three more .25% interest rates increases in 2019. Cost of servicing loans denominated in USD/FedRes Notes gets more expensive (remember Hungary when they denominated their debt in Swiss Francs but paid in Euros? Their payments went up 20% when the Swiss franc decoupled from the euro). The emerging markets are crashing now (Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, Brazil) and it will spread. Monday doesn’t have to be on a Monday. Similarly, economic growth rate - increase in M2 = negative as well. Economy is in recession, but papered over with... paper 
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Posted: 10/10/2018 7:34:30 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fed Funds rate = 2.25% - Inflation CPI-U 2.7% = -0.45% real rate of interest. Still negative. Similarly, economic growth rate - increase in M2 = negative as well. Economy is in recession, but papered over with... paper |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 7:38:31 PM EDT
[#16]
Monday again already.... damn
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Posted: 10/10/2018 7:38:35 PM EDT
[#17]
Well, I dumped another $4,600 into my S&P 500 fund. That's all I can afford to risk right now.
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Posted: 10/10/2018 7:45:59 PM EDT
[#18]
It's the stock market...it goes up...it goes down. No need to put on your tinfoil hats and scream it's the end of the world.
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Posted: 10/10/2018 7:47:26 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: ^this guy fucks. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 7:49:00 PM EDT
[#20]
It's still higher than it was at any time during Obama's presidency
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Posted: 10/10/2018 7:59:53 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Did it ever come out of the recession? (for any 2 consecutive quarters, not a monthly report here and there) Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Fed Funds rate = 2.25% - Inflation CPI-U 2.7% = -0.45% real rate of interest. Still negative. Similarly, economic growth rate - increase in M2 = negative as well. Economy is in recession, but papered over with... paper BTW, don't trust the BLS statistics on employment/unemployment (look at the increased # of homeless everywhere) as well as inflation. Go to John Williams' Shadowstats. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 8:09:49 PM EDT
[#22]
Personally, I think it's reaction to finding the hacking chip on the SuperMicro Server Motherboards that started under the Obama administration.
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Posted: 10/10/2018 8:29:08 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Did it ever come out of the recession? (for any 2 consecutive quarters, not a monthly report here and there) Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Fed Funds rate = 2.25% - Inflation CPI-U 2.7% = -0.45% real rate of interest. Still negative. Similarly, economic growth rate - increase in M2 = negative as well. Economy is in recession, but papered over with... paper  Attached FileCheck out the total from the last 10 years. It's all a phony recovery. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 9:47:41 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I bought SNAP awhile back, so probably. We're walking on thin ice if the success of a tech stock relies on Kylie Jenner's opinion of it. Considering how many teens are using Snapchat, they would have to do something insanely stupid to screw it up. Probably haven't found a way to monetize it. Twitter had the same problem for years and people said it would go nowhere. It's been trending up since mid-2016 so they must have found a way. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 9:48:57 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Then what do they do with the cash? Sure take some profit but then you’ll put it in other securities. Nobody is just going to sit on large amounts of cash. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
It's October. Happens every year. People are cashing in their gains. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 9:51:29 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Volume's been low though, which is a good sign that the institutions aren't panic selling. We saw similar pullbacks in early February and late March. The stock market isn't for the skittish. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 9:54:02 PM EDT
[#27]
yield spread still positive
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Posted: 10/10/2018 9:58:53 PM EDT
[#28]
Correcting.
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Posted: 10/10/2018 10:03:43 PM EDT
[#29]
The Fed should be abolished.
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Posted: 10/10/2018 10:12:27 PM EDT
[#30]
One of the issues is the 20 trillion in US Debt! Every 1% increase is 200 million in extra interest we will pay. 10 year treasury a year ago was 2.4..Now 3.25
What doesn't add up to me is overseas interest rates are negative or way less than 2% |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 10:21:03 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tightens the money supply. No more free (when it was ZIRP) money with which to buy assets/equities. Big boys bail have been selling off, leaving the top 5-10% of the gains for the small fish to hold the bag. Remember the sell offs before the crash of ‘29? Same thing with the Fed once again tightening the money supply. By global I mean other central banks are doing the same thing. Remember too that there is supposed to be three more .25% interest rates increases in 2019. Cost of servicing loans denominated in USD/FedRes Notes gets more expensive (remember Hungary when they denominated their debt in Swiss Francs but paid in Euros? Their payments went up 20% when the Swiss franc decoupled from the euro). The emerging markets are crashing now (Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, Brazil) and it will spread. Monday doesn’t have to be on a Monday. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 10:21:25 PM EDT
[#32]
Wave 1 down.
Quoted:
I'd say this is the beginning of a long painful ride downward, with a few bounces propelling the market temporarily upward along the way. It ends with home prices below 2008 financial crisis lows on an inflation adjusted basis. But what do I know...
Quoted:
My body is ready
Quoted:
The market is forward looking. So, for example, unemployment is 3.9%. Natural unemployment is just north of 5%. It has only one direction to go, because it can't go below zero. But more importantly, the Fed created this economy. They can take it away. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 10:25:38 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fed Funds rate = 2.25% - Inflation CPI-U 2.7% = -0.45% real rate of interest. Still negative. Similarly, economic growth rate - increase in M2 = negative as well. Economy is in recession, but papered over with... paper
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Posted: 10/10/2018 10:28:20 PM EDT
[#34]
Of course it is.
I just moved some funds around to riskier products. FML Eta Or I just bought the dip real heavy. Not my only funds btw. Experimental Play money |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 10:36:12 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That's if you have the appropriate mix for CPI-U. Just don't send anyone to college or consume medical care. You're golden. |
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Posted: 10/10/2018 10:47:54 PM EDT
[#36]
Waiting for Ghina to respond with more tariffs any moment now....
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Posted: 10/10/2018 11:43:29 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Long term (lets say 18-36 months), what would you say is the outlook for emerging markets? Stock market is a poor indication of the health of the economy. Remember those nations we laugh at like Zimbabwe or Venezuela? Well, their markets reached record highs, but concurrently they had hyperinflation. Our overseas dollars have yet to flood home here and there is time. We still have some liquidity in the market and won't go until after Europe falls. That will push up the dollar as foreigners flee to the safety of the dollar. Then it's surprise! |
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Posted: 10/11/2018 12:39:17 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wheels will have fallen off. Stock market is a poor indication of the health of the economy. Remember those nations we laugh at like Zimbabwe or Venezuela? Well, their markets reached record highs, but concurrently they had hyperinflation. Our overseas dollars have yet to flood home here and there is time. We still have some liquidity in the market and won't go until after Europe falls. That will push up the dollar as foreigners flee to the safety of the dollar. Then it's surprise! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Long term (lets say 18-36 months), what would you say is the outlook for emerging markets? Stock market is a poor indication of the health of the economy. Remember those nations we laugh at like Zimbabwe or Venezuela? Well, their markets reached record highs, but concurrently they had hyperinflation. Our overseas dollars have yet to flood home here and there is time. We still have some liquidity in the market and won't go until after Europe falls. That will push up the dollar as foreigners flee to the safety of the dollar. Then it's surprise! Yes, it's way down. |
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Posted: 10/11/2018 12:46:03 AM EDT
[#39]
Crypto is tanking.
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Posted: 10/11/2018 12:49:10 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Crypto is tanking.  Attached File |
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Posted: 10/11/2018 12:54:38 AM EDT
[#41]
It's been overheating a bit, time for some reality for a while.
Interest rates can't stay rock bottom zero forever. We need some trend to more normal rates. Say 5% to 8% home loans at least. That will mean, as some pointed out, that the stock market will lose some people and some money I imagine, for a while. Maybe I'm up in the night thinking I can get at least a percent or two on money I have in the bank. Not that saving will make me money, I just don't want to lose money on my savings via inflation. |
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Posted: 10/11/2018 1:56:07 AM EDT
[#42]
If the futures market is any indication, tomorrow will be even bloodier.
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Posted: 10/11/2018 2:23:07 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's been overheating a bit, time for some reality for a while. Interest rates can't stay rock bottom zero forever. We need some trend to more normal rates. Say 5% to 8% home loans at least. That will mean, as some pointed out, that the stock market will lose some people and some money I imagine, for a while. Maybe I'm up in the night thinking I can get at least a percent or two on money I have in the bank. Not that saving will make me money, I just don't want to lose money on my savings via inflation. You’ll still lose money to inflation, but less. |
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Posted: 10/11/2018 2:40:00 AM EDT
[#44]
SELL SELL SELL
I'm not kidding. You guys who think that you can just sit around and pull in 15 to 20% per year on your stocks in the "markets" are in for a rude 2008-style awakening. The "market" is not actually a real market. It's manipulated by insiders, big investment banks, and interest rates and you have no idea what you are really getting into. Guns, ammo, tobacco, alcohol, food, water, gold, and silver are what you need. |
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Posted: 10/11/2018 3:03:44 AM EDT
[#45]
Bull market correction.
However, I have been moving money into bonds over the last 3 months. |
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Posted: 10/11/2018 3:04:45 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's been the plan by the fed reserve to keep increasing interest rates, till they tank the economy, and blame Trump for it. remember - the feds were completely afraid of doing anything with interest rates, and they even bought back their own notes at sales, to keep the economy going for fbho. now that the dems are not in office, they have nothing to worry about, and have kept raising rates, faster than what they should have. and now they are begining to see the results they want. a collapsing economy while Trump is in office. next from the left: See! Trump's policies don't work. WE NEED TO INCREASE TAXES NOW TO SAVE THE ECONOMY! BASIC INCOME FOR THE POOR NOW! etc.... |
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Posted: 10/11/2018 3:16:57 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Bingo. They have raised rates 7 times in less than 2 years. They knew exactly where this would lead. Just gotta punish the average guy with his 401K retirement for long enough to make him fear it won't cut it. All the while the bots on yahoo finance, market watch and twit face will march to the beat of its all Trumps fault!! REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
It's been the plan by the fed reserve to keep increasing interest rates, till they tank the economy, and blame Trump for it. remember - the feds were completely afraid of doing anything with interest rates, and they even bought back their own notes at sales, to keep the economy going for fbho. now that the dems are not in office, they have nothing to worry about, and have kept raising rates, faster than what they should have. and now they are begining to see the results they want. a collapsing economy while Trump is in office. next from the left: See! Trump's policies don't work. WE NEED TO INCREASE TAXES NOW TO SAVE THE ECONOMY! BASIC INCOME FOR THE POOR NOW! etc.... |
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Posted: 10/11/2018 3:20:16 AM EDT
[#48]
What has changed?
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Posted: 10/11/2018 3:28:26 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
President Trump mentioned the other day during comments to the press that he would prefer they didn't raise interests rates any further right now. I have to agree with him. An overcorrection trying to stave off inflation would take the legs right out of the economy. I can't believe the Fed would intentionally tank the economy in order to blame Trump, but then we have exhibit 1.) the FBI and exhibit 2.) the DOJ...so...... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
It's been the plan by the fed reserve to keep increasing interest rates, till they tank the economy, and blame Trump for it. remember - the feds were completely afraid of doing anything with interest rates, and they even bought back their own notes at sales, to keep the economy going for fbho. now that the dems are not in office, they have nothing to worry about, and have kept raising rates, faster than what they should have. and now they are begining to see the results they want. a collapsing economy while Trump is in office. next from the left: See! Trump's policies don't work. WE NEED TO INCREASE TAXES NOW TO SAVE THE ECONOMY! BASIC INCOME FOR THE POOR NOW! etc.... |
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Posted: 10/11/2018 3:33:11 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What has changed? 
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