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1/22/2020 12:12:56 PM
Posted: 12/31/2006 2:33:57 PM EST
[Last Edit: 12/31/2006 2:34:32 PM EST by LesBaer45]
Time for the yearly study and WAG on where to keep putting the cash in the 401K so I thought I'd ask the ARFCOM hive mind how they plan on doing it.

I'm not going to list the current contribution % since those will be changing shortly.

Currently the total holdings looks like this:
6% Fixed Income
34% "Balanced Funds"
27% Large Cap
17% Small Cap
11% International
5% Company Stock

The Company Stock thing is a no choice option. They claim it's part of their "contribution" to match what we put in. Supposedly that's changing later this year so that you can move it to other 401k products, but it still originally goes into the stock fund. I intend to move what I can into a new Large Cap holding, and another Fixed Income fund, possibly one new International Fund. Something along the lines of a 20/60/20 split.

This excludes any other outside $ I may have squirreled away, this is for the retirement fund only. The other investments I can lose money on without ARFCOM help and I can prove it.

Most "experts" used to say 10% Small Cap and 10% Cash and 10% International, about 50 - 60% Large Cap then the rest in a Mid Cap or other choices. Lately however, I seem to notice most articles shifting those numbers around a bit. I've seen International as high as 20% and Large Caps in the 60 - 65% range. Small Caps seem to be getting no love as they are around 10% and Cash is still 10%.

I don't have any real Mid Cap choices nor any REIT type choices so don't ask. The "Balanced" type of funds are things like Fidelity Puritan or Freedom 2040. "Fixed Income" are bond/short term money market sort of funds.

I'm thinking of changing future contributions to something that will move more towards the large caps while maintaining the current standing or slightly raising the small caps & international. I'm a big believer in Small Caps but less so in the International funds. Although I have to admit the International funds have been zapping along like gang busters the last 3 years.

Something like this:
10% Fixed Income
20% "Balanced"
40% Large Cap
15% Small Cap
15% International

Eventually at this point in time I'd like to get the entire shebang "re-allocated" like those numbers but don't think I'm going to move it around this year. Maybe next year or as a long term goal. Assuming I don't get laid off before then.

I personally think the market is overheated a bit lately, I'm really not convinced the international funds can continue as is. Too many 'things' going on for me to believe that segment can go like it has been. I'm a long termer on small caps, yeah they bounce around like a cat in a bag but long term I think that's where the future is, not necessarily in the Larger Caps although they have shown serious resilence in 2006. I still think the housing market is going to put a hurting on the economy for the next two years and expect a slight downturn with the turmoil of the last elections and the run up to '08.

So, where are the enlightened ones to tell me exactly how to pull off that 20% gain for next year?
Link Posted: 12/31/2006 2:38:10 PM EST
Might try this thread, I got 18.4% for 2006. Going to put 30% in a REIT and evenly distribute the other among the other funds I listed

www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=531752
Link Posted: 12/31/2006 2:41:26 PM EST
I managed a 19.2% for the 2006 with a distribution of international, materials, gold and blue chip. I'm hoping to perpetuate it in 2007!

Don't discount international. I have some ETFs in Swede, Switzerland, Ireland, Southeast Asia, China, Mexico and Latin America. I've also taken a position in materials (base metals) because of all the double-digit growth expected in the 3rd world.

Today, I only have a single stock in my portfolio (CCJ Uranium Play).
Link Posted: 12/31/2006 4:57:06 PM EST

Originally Posted By AssaultRifler:
Might try this thread, I got 18.4% for 2006. Going to put 30% in a REIT and evenly distribute the other among the other funds I listed

www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=531752



Crap, I thought I did fair with 13.3% but I'm obviously trailing the curve....
Link Posted: 12/31/2006 6:02:38 PM EST

Originally Posted By LesBaer45:

Originally Posted By AssaultRifler:
Might try this thread, I got 18.4% for 2006. Going to put 30% in a REIT and evenly distribute the other among the other funds I listed

www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=531752



Crap, I thought I did fair with 13.3% but I'm obviously trailing the curve....


well for 2005 I made a measly 7% YTD, varies I guess
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