[ARCHIVED THREAD] - SC internal polling. (Page 1 of 3)
Posted: 2/15/2016 4:02:28 PM EDT
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According to Rush, Jeb Bush's internal polling has Trump at 26% and Cruz at 24%.
This explains why that POS Trump is imploding with his vicious comments. |
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Not saying it's not true but the CBS poll from yesterday has trump up by 22 points in S.C. |
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I would not trust a damn thing that came from the Bush camp. Quoted:
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According to Rush, Jeb Bush's internal polling has Trump at 26% and Cruz at 24%. This explains what that POS Trump is imploding with his vicious comments. I would not trust a damn thing that came from the Bush camp. Trump must because he is having a total meltdown right now. Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile |
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Then factor in this. Cruz's super PACs aren't just buying up tv ads people hate and ignore like Jeb Bush did. They're going door-to-targeting likely Cruz supporters. Apparently this has never been done before by super PACs. |
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ Not saying it's not true but the CBS poll from yesterday has trump up by 22 points in S.C. You trust CBS? Not accusatory - an honest question. |
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Then factor in this. Cruz's super PACs aren't just buying up tv ads people hate and ignore like Jeb Bush did. They're going door-to-targeting likely Cruz supporters. Apparently this has never been done before by super PACs. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/15/the-secret-army-stumping-for-ted-cruz.html What is most telling about this article is that it demonstrates that Trump does not know how build an effective Presidential campaign. We"ll see soon if Cruz is and his Super Pacs are vindicated. |
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Quoted: Do you understand that for this to be true literally every poll released over the past week would have to be false and not just false but waaaaay false? Bullshit. The last polls in NH said Cruz would be in 4th or 5th place. He came in third barely spending or campaigning there.
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Do you understand that for this to be true literally every poll released over the past week would have to be false and not just false but waaaaay false? Bullshit. So what you're telling us is that the mainstream media does not manipulate polls to create a narrative? |
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The last Iowa polls said Trump would win handily. He came in 2nd. If you read about this stuff, people have said over the last few election cycles that polls have not been predicting election outcomes very well. Quoted:
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Do you understand that for this to be true literally every poll released over the past week would have to be false and not just false but waaaaay false? Bullshit. If you read about this stuff, people have said over the last few election cycles that polls have not been predicting election outcomes very well. But what does Dick Morris have to say? 
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But what does Dick Morris have to say?
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Do you understand that for this to be true literally every poll released over the past week would have to be false and not just false but waaaaay false? Bullshit. If you read about this stuff, people have said over the last few election cycles that polls have not been predicting election outcomes very well. But what does Dick Morris have to say?
Boom |
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The last Iowa polls said Trump would win handily. He came in 2nd. The last polls in NH said Cruz would be in 4th or 5th place. He came in third barely spending or campaigning there. If you read about this stuff, people have said over the last few election cycles that polls have not been predicting election outcomes very well. Quoted:
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Do you understand that for this to be true literally every poll released over the past week would have to be false and not just false but waaaaay false? Bullshit. The last polls in NH said Cruz would be in 4th or 5th place. He came in third barely spending or campaigning there. If you read about this stuff, people have said over the last few election cycles that polls have not been predicting election outcomes very well. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html 1 point and change outside of the MOE is not exactly handily. If Cruz can pull this off being 15+ points outside of the MOE, I will concede he is a full on super genius. In any event the ultimate result of all this will likely be determined by the time I have any say in it. |
Two actual post-debate polls with results posted for the world to see have come out this evening with Trump +17 and +19, and both had Rubio and Cruz tied for 2nd. This leaked "internal poll" is up there with Bill Kristol's "a friend I trust told me about this" poll from last week.  |
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The last Iowa polls said Trump would win handily. He came in 2nd. The last polls in NH said Cruz would be in 4th or 5th place. He came in third barely spending or campaigning there. If you read about this stuff, people have said over the last few election cycles that polls have not been predicting election outcomes very well. Quoted:
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Do you understand that for this to be true literally every poll released over the past week would have to be false and not just false but waaaaay false? Bullshit. The last polls in NH said Cruz would be in 4th or 5th place. He came in third barely spending or campaigning there. If you read about this stuff, people have said over the last few election cycles that polls have not been predicting election outcomes very well. Could be. The poll graph in Iowa was a hell of a lot tighter than in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Carson surged first, in the fall, and Cruz surged late in the couple of months preceding the caucuses. The only strange thing in Iowa is that Trump seemed to pull ahead again in the final 10 days of the campaign but on caucus night underperformed the RCP average by ~4 points. I chalk that up to the caucus system because when you look at New Hampshire, everything more or less lined up with the exception of Rubio who underperformed (I suspect this was backlash from the Marcobot debate - also interesting to note that Rubio's drop equated almost exactly to Trump's gain). To put it in perspective, once Trump pulled ahead of Bush in the summer, he twice lost the lead in Iowa in the campaign. However in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Trump has never lost the lead. Both of these states are primaries, too, which means there's no polling place electioneering going on to sway gullible voters. We'll find out on Saturday in any event! 
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According to Rush, Jeb Bush's internal polling has Trump at 26% and Cruz at 24%. This explains why that POS Trump is imploding with his vicious comments. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html Trump's decline isn't because of Cruz's ascendency however. Trump's support seems to be moving towards Rubio. Trump and Rubio have been tag teaming Cruz with no ill effect on his numbers. I wonder if Trump has noticed his supporters fleeing to Rubio. |
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html Trump's decline isn't because of Cruz's ascendency however. Trump's support seems to be moving towards Rubio. Trump and Rubio have been tag teaming Cruz with no ill effect on his numbers. I wonder if Trump has noticed his supporters fleeing to Rubio. Quoted:
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According to Rush, Jeb Bush's internal polling has Trump at 26% and Cruz at 24%. This explains why that POS Trump is imploding with his vicious comments. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html Trump's decline isn't because of Cruz's ascendency however. Trump's support seems to be moving towards Rubio. Trump and Rubio have been tag teaming Cruz with no ill effect on his numbers. I wonder if Trump has noticed his supporters fleeing to Rubio. Those polls are old. I'd like to see post-New Hampshire national polling as I suspect we'll see Trump rise back up. Everyone freaked out when Trump lost Iowa for some reason. In the Reuters rolling poll, Trump has steadily (with the exception of the first few days after Iowa) held around 38-40%. |
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Those polls are old. I'd like to see post-New Hampshire national polling as I suspect we'll see Trump rise back up. Everyone freaked out when Trump lost Iowa for some reason. In the Reuters rolling poll, Trump has steadily (with the exception of the first few days after Iowa) held around 38-40%. Quoted:
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According to Rush, Jeb Bush's internal polling has Trump at 26% and Cruz at 24%. This explains why that POS Trump is imploding with his vicious comments. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html Trump's decline isn't because of Cruz's ascendency however. Trump's support seems to be moving towards Rubio. Trump and Rubio have been tag teaming Cruz with no ill effect on his numbers. I wonder if Trump has noticed his supporters fleeing to Rubio. Those polls are old. I'd like to see post-New Hampshire national polling as I suspect we'll see Trump rise back up. Everyone freaked out when Trump lost Iowa for some reason. In the Reuters rolling poll, Trump has steadily (with the exception of the first few days after Iowa) held around 38-40%. I'm sorry, I thought today being 2/15 that 2/13 was fairly recent. Guess I better go back to school. (Pro-tip, hover your mouse over the graph for the data point's tabulation date) |
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I'm sorry, I thought today being 2/15 that 2/13 was fairly recent. Guess I better go back to school. (Pro-tip, hover your mouse over the graph for the data point's tabulation date) Quoted:
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According to Rush, Jeb Bush's internal polling has Trump at 26% and Cruz at 24%. This explains why that POS Trump is imploding with his vicious comments. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html Trump's decline isn't because of Cruz's ascendency however. Trump's support seems to be moving towards Rubio. Trump and Rubio have been tag teaming Cruz with no ill effect on his numbers. I wonder if Trump has noticed his supporters fleeing to Rubio. Those polls are old. I'd like to see post-New Hampshire national polling as I suspect we'll see Trump rise back up. Everyone freaked out when Trump lost Iowa for some reason. In the Reuters rolling poll, Trump has steadily (with the exception of the first few days after Iowa) held around 38-40%. I'm sorry, I thought today being 2/15 that 2/13 was fairly recent. Guess I better go back to school. (Pro-tip, hover your mouse over the graph for the data point's tabulation date) Umm...what? 
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interesting to see him polling so highly among tea party voters as one would think they would be in cruzs block A possibility...The TEA party was burned by current politicians when Paul Ryan pushed through John Boehner's Omnibus bill which gave Obama and the democrats everything they asked for. Wasn't that a two year spending bill that funded the government right through the election year? Cruz is a member of the Senate which also approved that spending bill didn't they? As is Rubio. Think the TEA party is pissed at all politicians right now. |
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Nikki Haley hasn't endorsed anyone yet, has she? Will she endorse Yeb! before Friday?
Isn't all voting in South Carolina electronic voting machines? No paper ballots? Ripe for voter fraud. Jeb just might pull out a 1st place win that turns things around for him. Has Microsoft software programmers been visiting polling stations to calibrate the software on the voting devices this week? |
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Trump must because he is having a total meltdown right now. Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile Quoted:
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According to Rush, Jeb Bush's internal polling has Trump at 26% and Cruz at 24%. This explains what that POS Trump is imploding with his vicious comments. I would not trust a damn thing that came from the Bush camp. Trump must because he is having a total meltdown right now. Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile Do you know how many times I've heard people say Trump is having a meltdown? This is how he conducts press conferences nothing new. Anyway he'll pickup many democrats in the general and he'll pull no punches against the Clinton machine. This is why he is hands down the most electable Republican candidate. |
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According to Rush, Jeb Bush's internal polling has Trump at 26% and Cruz at 24%. This explains why that POS Trump is imploding with his vicious comments. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html Trump's decline isn't because of Cruz's ascendency however. Trump's support seems to be moving towards Rubio. Trump and Rubio have been tag teaming Cruz with no ill effect on his numbers. I wonder if Trump has noticed his supporters fleeing to Rubio. Those polls are old. I'd like to see post-New Hampshire national polling as I suspect we'll see Trump rise back up. Everyone freaked out when Trump lost Iowa for some reason. In the Reuters rolling poll, Trump has steadily (with the exception of the first few days after Iowa) held around 38-40%. I'm sorry, I thought today being 2/15 that 2/13 was fairly recent. Guess I better go back to school. (Pro-tip, hover your mouse over the graph for the data point's tabulation date) Umm...what? http://i.imgur.com/zK39H1h.png Oh, got it, you're a picture book kind of guy. 
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The media had Trump up by double digits in Iowa....Cruz is building a huge lead here IMO. I see way more Cruz advertising (bumper stickers, signs, etc.) than Trump.
On another note, Rubio was at the same venue last night that Trump was at a month ago. About similar #s of people showed up from what I have heard. |
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Polls mean nothing. The ground game is everything. That was proven in Iowa.
Cruz is relying on getting volunteers knocking on doors and talking to real people that vote while Trump prefers the optics of sending out 5000 tickets for events in 3000 seat halls and then claiming how he has overflow crowd's. One thing's for sure. South Carolina's not New Hampshire. 
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Looks like Trump is pulling away as Rubio and Cruz are falling into the high teens....2-15-16 RCP average....Trump by 18.5.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html Looks like Jeb! picked it up a little. 
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Trump has been mainly focused on Jeb lately, not Cruz. Every poll out there shows something very different than this magical Cruz friendly internal polling. Maybe that means Cruz has more lies and tricks that he will deploy in SC just like he did in Iowa. I thought Bush was "exposed" in the last debate and by attacking the Bush family he "destroyed" his campaign. Doesn't seem to be true, just another failed fantasy of the Cruzettes. |
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Looks like Trump is pulling away as Rubio and Cruz are falling into the high teens....2-15-16 RCP average....Trump by 18.5. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html Looks like Jeb! picked it up a little. Look at the margin of error on individual polls. The higher the MOE the higher Trump's lead. This correlates to Trump underperforming in actual votes compared to his poll numbers. I don't know *why* this is the case, but it seems to be consistent. Without looking at every question individually its hard to tell why though. Still Trump's lead in SC according to RealClearPolitics is quite formidable. |
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I would not trust a damn thing that came from the Bush camp. Quoted:
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According to Rush, Jeb Bush's internal polling has Trump at 26% and Cruz at 24%. This explains what that POS Trump is imploding with his vicious comments. I would not trust a damn thing that came from the Bush camp. This. |
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Cruz supporter here, but all polls suck. I don't trust any polls any time. Cruz could be a 2% or 80%. Polls numbers are as reliable as the people answering the polls. If I take the time to answer a poll I lie my butt off. Just cause I hate them. It's people like you..................
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You trust CBS? Not accusatory - an honest question. Quoted:
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ Not saying it's not true but the CBS poll from yesterday has trump up by 22 points in S.C. You trust CBS? Not accusatory - an honest question. The non-sponsored polling is pretty consistent. Check out the political pollin thread, updated ~daily. It was pretty accurate for NH. |
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The last Iowa polls said Trump would win handily. He came in 2nd. The last polls in NH said Cruz would be in 4th or 5th place. He came in third barely spending or campaigning there. If you read about this stuff, people have said over the last few election cycles that polls have not been predicting election outcomes very well. Quoted:
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Do you understand that for this to be true literally every poll released over the past week would have to be false and not just false but waaaaay false? Bullshit. The last polls in NH said Cruz would be in 4th or 5th place. He came in third barely spending or campaigning there. If you read about this stuff, people have said over the last few election cycles that polls have not been predicting election outcomes very well. That was before Cruz stole votes from Carson. |