Ron Paul to take Iowa!!!

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Ron Paul to take Iowa!!!

Posted: 12/18/2011 10:50:40 PM EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/paul-leads-in-iowa.html

December 18, 2011

Paul leads in Iowa

Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.

Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa. 22% of voters think he's run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it's 'very important' that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa. Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.

Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. He's really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney's blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters. Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.

Romney's vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40. One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul. Among voters who say they're not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul. It's particularly worth noting that among Gingrich- who seems more likely to keep falling than turn it around- voters, he's the second choice of 30% compared to only 11% for Paul.

In addition to having more support right now Paul also has firmer support (73% solidly committed) than Romney does (68% solidly committed.) But at the same time Romney appears to have more room for growth, which could allow him to overtake Paul in the last two weeks.

Two other notes on Romney: he's now winning the electability primary- 25% of voters think he would have the best chance to defeat Obama compared to 17% for Gingrich and 16% for Paul. And he also leads Paul 24-18 among voters who watched the Sioux City debate on Thursday night, confirming general perception that he had the stronger performance.

The rest of the field isn't getting much traction. Among the three candidates tied at 10%, Santorum has gained a couple points compared to last week, Perry has moved up a single point, and Bachmann is down a point. There is some indication that Iowans are warming up to Perry a little bit. He's gone from a -4 (43/47) favorability to a +8 (48/40).

With six candidates in double digits there are still a lot of different things that could happen the final two weeks in Iowa. But it looks like Paul and Romney have emerged as the clear front runners.

Full results here

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:00:37 PM EDT

[#1]

In b4 "BATSHIT crazy huurrrrrr durrrr"

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:02:33 PM EDT

[#2]

Thank god. He would destroy Obama in debate, and finaly put this country back on path to being great. Right now this country is far from great.

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:03:37 PM EDT

[#3]

You people would destroy this country just as surely as a black shirt.

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:05:19 PM EDT

[#4]

Quoted:

In b4 "BATSHIT crazy huurrrrrr durrrr"

And if he actually wins the nomination, I'll vote for the zany old coot.

I've seen him speak live and he's goofy as hell.

But he's better than the communist jug-eared-wookie-humper.

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:06:50 PM EDT

[#5]

Jesus christ, how can we not find one normal fucking candidate?

This is the worst pool I've ever seen.

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:21:28 PM EDT

[#6]

No way he will take Iowa.

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:25:09 PM EDT

[#7]

About what we all expected, not bad considering the debate wasn't very positive.

If Gingrich doesn't come close in IA he's pretty much done, he'd have little hope of doing well in NH and then he goes into SC as a second tier candidate with Bachmann and Perry assuming all three stay in.

After Iowa the real battle begins, the establishment will go all out for Romney. It was a tough call the campaign made going after Newt, ballsy because it puts them head to head with Romney early on rather than trying to compete against everyone and splitting up the vote. I suppose they couldn't risk Newt getting too many delegates early.

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:33:20 PM EDT

[#8]

A Ron Paul win is a de facto Romney win. It will be seen as an outlier, so the media will immediately switch focus to New Hampshire where Romney holds a commanding lead.

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:38:50 PM EDT

[#9]

At this point, I'm hoping so. Fuck Mitt. Fuck Newt. Paul is the only one with a serious shot and a halfway principled platform.

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:45:58 PM EDT

[#10]

if that happens, arfcom will melt down.

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:49:40 PM EDT

[#11]

Iowa has only a 40% track record of predicting the right candidate for the GOP since 1976. (Dick Gephardt anyone?)
I'm not sweating it even if he does by some miracle win Iowa. Plus that polling company is actually PART of the Democratic party, they would love to see the most unelectable candidate win for the GOP, their bullshit is suspect. The fact that the opening sentence is –– "Gingrichs campaign is rapidly imploding" tells you they have an agenda.

Posted: 12/18/2011 11:51:37 PM EDT

[#12]

Maybe this will change the primary system finally. Buncha nitwits

Posted: 12/19/2011 12:04:22 AM EDT

[#13]

Quoted:

if that happens, arfcom will melt down.

This.

Posted: 12/19/2011 12:09:24 AM EDT

[#14]

Remember that Huckabee took Iowa last time, so if Paul takes iowa its not that huge of a thing. However if he does take it then it is a big message to the old gaurd in the GOP to change their ways.

Paul taking Iowa would be the result of the tea party movement raising more awarness of the constitution amonst voters.

Posted: 12/19/2011 12:14:36 AM EDT

[#15]

Needs more 57 states voting on the same day to matter.

Posted: 12/19/2011 12:18:29 AM EDT

[#16]

Quoted:
if that happens, arfcom will melt down.

"I feel a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced just went on and on and on......................"

Posted: 12/19/2011 12:35:28 AM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:

Quoted:
if that happens, arfcom will melt down.

This.

Posted: 12/19/2011 12:48:03 AM EDT

[#18]

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/votes/index.html

Check out these results from 2008, I think it will be a close race between Paul and Romney.

Posted: 12/19/2011 1:05:50 AM EDT

[#19]

I would vote for Paul.

I would vote for Perry.

I would not vote for anyone else. Seriously, I would not vote if Romney got nominated or I would do a right in. I wouldn't vote for Newt either I dont think.

I love my country but can't vote for a liar.

~Norinco

Posted: 12/19/2011 1:08:46 AM EDT

[#20]

Quoted:

Quoted:
In b4 "BATSHIT crazy huurrrrrr durrrr"

And if he actually wins the nomination, I'll vote for the zany old coot.

I've seen him speak live and he's goofy as hell.

But he's better than the communist jug-eared-wookie-humper.

Fuckin A.

Posted: 12/19/2011 1:34:41 AM EDT

[#21]

how many more of these fucking ron paul threads are we going to have

this guys is not going to be president anymore than i am.....

make this topic a sticky or something, sick of seeing ron paul threads

Posted: 12/19/2011 1:34:41 AM EDT

[#22]

God help us all.

Posted: 12/19/2011 2:53:44 AM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:
how many more of these fucking ron paul threads are we going to have

this guys is not going to be president anymore than i am.....

make this topic a sticky or something, sick of seeing ron paul threads

The obnoxious Ron Paul Troll threads will continue until we all come to our senses and change our minds about the crazy old coot and promise to vote for him.

It's like fucking Chinese Water Torture.....drip, drip, drip,drip,drip,drip,drip, drip,drip,drip,drip,drip,..............hater, drip, drip,drip,....hater..,drip,drip,drip,

And it's gonna continue as long as the Ron Paul spammers can continue to get away with hijacking this site with their childish inane bullshit.

Posted: 12/19/2011 2:58:00 AM EDT

[#24]

Quoted:
Jesus christ, how can we not find one normal fucking candidate?

This is the worst pool I've ever seen.

You must not have been around 4 years ago.

As others have said the result of RP winning the Iowa primary would be the complete loss of Iowa's credibility.
Whoever wins 2nd place basically "wins"

Not that he even has a chance to begin with (which is a good thing).

Posted: 12/19/2011 2:58:33 AM EDT

[#25]

The SAME polling firm that had him ahead last week took another poll using the same methodology and have him ahead THIS week!

Posted: 12/19/2011 3:05:56 AM EDT

[#26]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Jesus christ, how can we not find one normal fucking candidate?

This is the worst pool I've ever seen.

You must not have been around 4 years ago.

As others have said the result of RP winning the Iowa primary would be the complete loss of Iowa's credibility.
Whoever wins 2nd place basically "wins"

Not that he even has a chance to begin with (which is a good thing).

You obviously underestimate "The Liberty Trolls".

They are dedicated to trolling Ron Paul straight into the White House, how can they possibly fail?

http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Liberty-Trolls-Trolling-for-Liberty-and-RON-PAUL/181646721889494

Posted: 12/19/2011 3:11:19 AM EDT

[#27]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Jesus christ, how can we not find one normal fucking candidate?

This is the worst pool I've ever seen.

You must not have been around 4 years ago.

As others have said the result of RP winning the Iowa primary would be the complete loss of Iowa's credibility.

Whoever wins 2nd place basically "wins"

Not that he even has a chance to begin with (which is a good thing).

You obviously underestimate "The Liberty Trolls".

They are dedicated to trolling Ron Paul straight into the White House, how can they possibly fail?

http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Liberty-Trolls-Trolling-for-Liberty-and-RON-PAUL/181646721889494

PLEASE SPREAD THIS FAR AND WIDE!!! WE HAVE ONE WEEK TO GET EVERY RON PAUL SUPPORTER DIRECTED TO THEIR NEAREST SIGN BOMB!!! SIGN BOMBS TAKING PLACE EVERYWHERE!!!!!!!!!!!! FIND YOURS!!! REPOST REPOST REPOST!!!

Posted: 12/19/2011 3:18:27 AM EDT

[#28]

I'm pulling for Paul. I started liking him when I heard him on Glenn Beck, I thought he was just another caller then Glenn said he was a candidate. I agree with Paul's stance on just about everything. And I really dont understand why people dont like him.

Haters gonna Hate

Posted: 12/19/2011 3:21:30 AM EDT

[#29]

The Democrats are tickled pink.

Posted: 12/19/2011 3:23:25 AM EDT

[#30]

Quoted:
Maybe this will change the primary system finally. Buncha nitwits

The primary system was changed this year Bob. All of the primaries leading up to Florida I believe are proportional. From Florida until April, they can be either or, or winner take all, the state decides. From April on they are all winner take all. I need to check the specifics, but from my recollection, that is how they are doing it this time around.

Does any poll show Paul doing this well in Iowa other than a democrat sponsored poll? Wish I was still on vacation this week, I enjoyed thepast week and soaking up the election season. Oh well, back to earning a paycheck.

Posted: 12/19/2011 3:25:12 AM EDT

[#31]

Quoted:
Jesus christ, how can we not find one normal fucking candidate?

This is the worst pool I've ever seen.

+1000

This the best we can fucking do?

I give up.

Posted: 12/19/2011 3:27:16 AM EDT

[#32]

Quoted:
how many more of these fucking ron paul threads are we going to have

this guys is not going to be president anymore than i am.....

make this topic a sticky or something, sick of seeing ron paul threads

The stupid old fool wants to greenlight Irans nuke program. He will win Iowa, I don't know why, but that's as far as he goes in my opinion.

Posted: 12/19/2011 3:28:48 AM EDT

[#33]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Maybe this will change the primary system finally. Buncha nitwits

The primary system was changed this year Bob. All of the primaries leading up to Florida I believe are proportional. From Florida until April, they can be either or, or winner take all, the state decides. From April on they are all winner take all. I need to check the specifics, but from my recollection, that is how they are doing it this time around.

Does any poll show Paul doing this well in Iowa other than a democrat sponsored poll? Wish I was still on vacation this week, I enjoyed thepast week and soaking up the election season. Oh well, back to earning a paycheck.

I'm talking about a bunch of states that few people live in having a disproportionate say in who ends up being the presidential candidates v. Texas, New York, California etc