I think it was the Dukakis curse. Kerry was, after all, Dukakis' Lt. Gov.
Seriously, though, I think the election will be won or lost on the issue of the War on Terror. If the public senses a terrorist threat, Bush will win handily. In that regard, the Russian school massacre was a big factor.
Kerry's only chance for winning was to focus on a domestic agenda, but instead he made Vietnam the centerpiece of his campaign. First, the Swift Boat Vets came forward to remind the country of his traitorous anti-war activities. Then Dan Rather was caught trying to use forged documents to attack President Bush's service record.
The immediate result of the Russian school massacre and CBS Memogate is Bush's current double-digit lead.
I still think the race could tighten up if Kerry shifted his campaign to a domestic agenda, but memogate and the Swift Boat Vets are causing his campaign to play defense.
If I had to guess, I'd say the election will be a landslide victory for Bush with at least one surprise victory (NY, CA?). Okay, maybe there is something to the idea of a Dukakis curse!!!