User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:09:15 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: I recall the same thing on tube artillery at least leading up to DS1 (I think it was the G5 that Gerald Bull helped design we were worried about in Iraq - maybe we incorporated similar improvements in the M777 but I always thought Russian tube outranged us - at least in the '90s). Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I have always heard that Russian arty outranged ours. iirc the S. African tubes had the best range but that was decades ago. (I was never in arty) Anyway the UA needs to outrange the RU by more than a few miles since the RU has so much more arty. UA needs range and targeting. I recall the same thing on tube artillery at least leading up to DS1 (I think it was the G5 that Gerald Bull helped design we were worried about in Iraq - maybe we incorporated similar improvements in the M777 but I always thought Russian tube outranged us - at least in the '90s). The 39 and 45 caliber tubes were a response to 155 mm guns being out ranged by the Russian M46 130 mm guns in Vietnam and Africa. The US and hence NATO first started with the 39 cal tube, while the 45 was developed by South Africa. Many nations adopted 45 caliber tubes and later 52 caliber tubes while the US planned to move from 39 to a 55 caliber tubes with the Crusader but that was cancelled, the same tube length was later adopted in the Navy’s 6’ advance gun system and is the current tube for the ERCA (Extended Range Cannon Artillery) supplement to the Paladin. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:09:36 PM EDT
[#2]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:09:52 PM EDT
[#3]
Russia continues to peck away at the Ukrainian Armed Forces, having destroyed 287% of the Ukrainian military (as of June 1).
"Combat losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the beginning of the special military operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation according to the Red Spring news agency."  Attached File |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:12:06 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Concur. However, from the Ukrainian point of view, maintaining an "Army in being" in the east probably strategically outweighs minor territorial considerations. The Russians are willing to expend masses of material and manpower for minor (and sometimes trivial) territorial gains. The Russians want a WWI-style "trench warfare" battle that plays to their advantages over the UA, forcing the UA into fixed positions that can be reduced by massed (and not very accurate) artillery and overwhelmed in detail by massed assaults conducted with little regard for casualties. UA does not want to be decisively engaged in an attritional fight or get decisively fixed, as their strengths are maneuver, initiative, and flexibility, all of which are negated when they are pinned in fixed positions by Russian artillery. At some point (maybe after Mariupol), the UA apparently decided to allow the Russians to advance in the east, both to avoid encirclement and to force the Orcs to maintain/sustain offensive OPTEMPO in order to "open up" the Russian logistics to further attacks. This also complicated Russian rear area security and creates sustainment issues from Hell. Apparently, the Ukrainians are betting that the Orcs will culminate sometime this summer and be incapable of effectively countering dispersed counteroffensives, and have the UA forces facing the Orcs in the Donbass mobile outside of fixed/hardened defensive lines will move from being a liability to an asset. The Russians set up for a decisive (read "short") war, while the UA apparently sees this as a long campaign. The Russian destruction of civilian infrastructure will complicate "pacifying" the Donbass, and with the word out that occupation by Russia includes a free trip to Siberia, 80% of the locals a self evacuating to Ukraine before the Russians arrive, breaking much of the influence the Russians previously had among formerly Russia-friendly and neutrals in the Donbass, as the vast majority of the refugees fleeing to Kiev and points west are Russian-speakers, and word gets out being "pro-Russian" when the Orcs come to your town does nothing to save you. I know that "Putin is a Master Strategist", but I see no effective end to this conflict that benefits Russia operationally or strategically short of Ukraine negotiating to end the war and favorable terms to Russia. Turning all of the contested areas of the Donbass into rubble, deporting the captured population, and using your Luhansk and Donbass supporters as cannon fodder while grinding the most patriotic young Russians into hamburger and getting over 30% of your Army's best equipment turned into scrap metal does not set up many favorable endstates for the Russians at this point. And this does not even take into account the level of Geopolitical, economic, and diplomatic damage done, not to mention that likely far more educated and young Russians are fleeing Russia than are being forcibly imported from Ukraine, what kind of Putin "victory" is even possible? As of right now, it appears that Russia owns the watch but Ukraine owns the calendar. Put some breaks in your postings please. Old men like me have a hard time reading that wall of words. |
|
|
|
FL, USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:16:09 PM EDT
[#5]
WILCO
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:17:08 PM EDT
[#6]
"Self-propelled artillery units M109 caliber 155-mm, presumably supplied by Belgium to the Ukrainian military."
 Attached File |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:20:06 PM EDT
[#7]
|
|
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:22:35 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: It is funny how often we joke about the Russians still being dependent on vacuum tube technology, yet the joke is actually largely based on facts. That looks like the freaking parts that came out of recycled 1950s/1960s era linear amplifiers for HAM radios that illegal CB'ers were running for extra power for base stations back in the 1980s. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: Originally Posted By Jack67: Now that we are up to date on cutting edge drone tech*, It's time for something completely different: Retro hardware from downed Kh-22 missile near Odesa, vacuum tubes and hand-looped memory. I uploaded the key photos if you don't want to follow the tweet.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/FUGC3CsXsAAAC-n_jpg-2405232.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/FUGEVWfWYAI9vnE_jpg-2405233.JPG * that was a great discussion and great answers and analysis to my question. It is funny how often we joke about the Russians still being dependent on vacuum tube technology, yet the joke is actually largely based on facts. That looks like the freaking parts that came out of recycled 1950s/1960s era linear amplifiers for HAM radios that illegal CB'ers were running for extra power for base stations back in the 1980s. Much more resistant to EMP than current electronics. Some our B-52's have ECM with vacuum tubes. |
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:30:27 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I agree completely and feel the same. I'd like this to end as fast as possible. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Charging_Handle: Originally Posted By Capta: The US, UK, and Germany are each sending 4 each at this time, enough to equip two batteries. A battalion is 18 launchers. Finland has something like 35 but probably doesn’t want to hand them out right now. But who knows? The best security guarantee for Finland is for the Russian army to be broken in Ukraine. Germany and the UK would be in position to send at least another 4 each. Greece and Italy would be in position to send 4 each. Norway has 12 in storage it can send. Counting what is in the first batch and excluding the US, you will probably see 20-24 more sent from NATO countries, enough for two battalions total. The US could also easily supply another three battalions worth in the future. This is probably the plan. It’s happening this way for political reasons to show that NATO is unified and everyone has skin in the game. More will follow in another few weeks. Russia is the frog being boiled alive. The problem with that strategy is that there isn't time for a slow boil approach. We need to get significant firepower into Ukraine within a month, or else there may not be any Donbass left to defend, the Russians will have it. I can understand why it is sometimes necessary to trade some land for time. But time is limited. And Ukraine cannot afford to give up much land because getting that land back is not going to be easy. Once the Russians take an area, get thoroughly dug in, get established and get re-supplied, the Ukrainian forces are going to have a really tough time if and when they try to go on the offensive to retake these areas. They'll be attacking into the teeth of well prepared defenses just as the Russians have, and taking the same fearful number of casualties. No, this war needs to be ended as quickly and decisively as possible. If we are going to support Ukraine, then lets support them and stop slow rolling them. The longer this goes on, the more I get the impression we are doing just enough to keep Ukraine from being defeated, but not doing enough to actually help them win this thing and end the destruction of their cities. I hope it isn't the case, but this has the feel that we're simply using the Ukrainians to involve Russia in a long, drawn out, bloody and costly fight to weaken them, but without much consideration toward the Ukrainian people. I have a problem with that. I don't like using people. I agree completely and feel the same. I'd like this to end as fast as possible. This is clearly what’s going on or we’d have already given them the more advanced systems they’ve requested. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:33:46 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Which is kind of funny, as the Air Force is relying on a combination radio/waveform reporting and dish-type Airspace Surveillance Radars with a latency of 3-6 seconds for "confirmed" position reporting, while the ADA and FA are relying on solid-state systems with Flat-panel phased array radars and update rates measured in milliseconds with Fire Control-level resolution that supposedly aren't accurate enough for deconfliction Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By NoMoAMMO: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: .GTL Even better, link in some ADA radars/system into your AFATADS and you can just push the button when the airspace/GTL is clear. It's fast, it's safe, and it really annoys the Air Force This is where the annoyance comes from. Correct. And the Army Fires Community's annoyance is that the Air Force can take anywhere from 1-10 minutes to confirm what a competently set up and integrated AFATADS/AMDWS/IFCS system with decent operators can determine in 5-10 seconds. The problem is the actual accuracy level of the recognized the fused commonoperating pictures is never 100 percent, and that margin of error is considered too great to accept the risk by the echeleons above reality. Which is kind of funny, as the Air Force is relying on a combination radio/waveform reporting and dish-type Airspace Surveillance Radars with a latency of 3-6 seconds for "confirmed" position reporting, while the ADA and FA are relying on solid-state systems with Flat-panel phased array radars and update rates measured in milliseconds with Fire Control-level resolution that supposedly aren't accurate enough for deconfliction That is the benefit of being a MAGTF, we own our airspace and the fires guys are normally next to the air control guys. If fires stay in our zone it is very easy to deconflict. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:43:44 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: No, this war needs to be ended as quickly and decisively as possible. If we are going to support Ukraine, then lets support them and stop slow rolling them. The longer this goes on, the more I get the impression we are doing just enough to keep Ukraine from being defeated, but not doing enough to actually help them win this thing and end the destruction of their cities. I hope it isn't the case, but this has the feel that we're simply using the Ukrainians to involve Russia in a long, drawn out, bloody and costly fight to weaken them, but without much consideration toward the Ukrainian people. I have a problem with that. I don't like using people. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: No, this war needs to be ended as quickly and decisively as possible. If we are going to support Ukraine, then lets support them and stop slow rolling them. The longer this goes on, the more I get the impression we are doing just enough to keep Ukraine from being defeated, but not doing enough to actually help them win this thing and end the destruction of their cities. I hope it isn't the case, but this has the feel that we're simply using the Ukrainians to involve Russia in a long, drawn out, bloody and costly fight to weaken them, but without much consideration toward the Ukrainian people. I have a problem with that. I don't like using people. This has been exactly my feeling about "our" support from the start. I believe "we" want the russians to send into Ukraine more and more tanks and soldiers to die because as our leaders have said in public, the goal is to destroy the russian army. And a quick decisive war would simply drive the russians back to their own border. So "we" are perfectly willing to use Ukraine citizens as cannon fodder in order to damage the russian army. It is not honorable or nice. Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Concur. However, from the Ukrainian point of view, maintaining an "Army in being" in the east probably strategically outweighs minor territorial considerations. The Russians are willing to expend masses of material and manpower for minor (and sometimes trivial) territorial gains. The Russians want a WWI-style "trench warfare" battle that plays to their advantages over the UA, forcing the UA into fixed positions that can be reduced by massed (and not very accurate) artillery and overwhelmed in detail by massed assaults conducted with little regard for casualties. UA does not want to be decisively engaged in an attritional fight or get decisively fixed, as their strengths are maneuver, initiative, and flexibility, all of which are negated when they are pinned in fixed positions by Russian artillery. At some point (maybe after Mariupol), the UA apparently decided to allow the Russians to advance in the east, both to avoid encirclement and to force the Orcs to maintain/sustain offensive OPTEMPO in order to "open up" the Russian logistics to further attacks. This also complicated Russian rear area security and creates sustainment issues from Hell. Apparently, the Ukrainians are betting that the Orcs will culminate sometime this summer and be incapable of effectively countering dispersed counteroffensives, and have the UA forces facing the Orcs in the Donbass mobile outside of fixed/hardened defensive lines will move from being a liability to an asset. The Russians set up for a decisive (read "short") war, while the UA apparently sees this as a long campaign. The Russian destruction of civilian infrastructure will complicate "pacifying" the Donbass, and with the word out that occupation by Russia includes a free trip to Siberia, 80% of the locals a self evacuating to Ukraine before the Russians arrive, breaking much of the influence the Russians previously had among formerly Russia-friendly and neutrals in the Donbass, as the vast majority of the refugees fleeing to Kiev and points west are Russian-speakers, and word gets out being "pro-Russian" when the Orcs come to your town does nothing to save you. I know that "Putin is a Master Strategist", but I see no effective end to this conflict that benefits Russia operationally or strategically short of Ukraine negotiating to end the war and favorable terms to Russia. Turning all of the contested areas of the Donbass into rubble, deporting the captured population, and using your Luhansk and Donbass supporters as cannon fodder while grinding the most patriotic young Russians into hamburger and getting over 30% of your Army's best equipment turned into scrap metal does not set up many favorable endstates for the Russians at this point. And this does not even take into account the level of Geopolitical, economic, and diplomatic damage done, not to mention that likely far more educated and young Russians are fleeing Russia than are being forcibly imported from Ukraine, what kind of Putin "victory" is even possible? As of right now, it appears that Russia owns the watch but Ukraine owns the calendar. If the Ukranians want to give up land in order to draw the russians out of there hardened defensive positions so they can be attacked by mobile Ukranian military forces, cool. I wish somebody would have said that earlier, or said it in a simple way so I could understand it. But while russians are allowed to hold ground, they are doing bad things to all the stuff that Ukranian citizens have been building with their sweat and blood for decades, and the russians are doing worse things to the Ukranians who are still there. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:47:28 PM EDT
[#12]
The dirty secret is that aside from the loss in oil revenue Ukraine will be stronger if they leave Donbass to the Russians. Which is looking more likely, because the cost of retaking the ruins is looking more and more like a waste.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 4:59:43 PM EDT
[#13]
 Russian oil production falls by 1 million barrels per day | DW News |
|
|
|
FL, USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:04:19 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: The dirty secret is that aside from the loss in oil revenue Ukraine will be stronger if they leave Donbass to the Russians. Which is looking more likely, because the cost of retaking the ruins is looking more and more like a waste. I think they will try to retake it. Will it be a 100% effort? I dont know. But Donbas, Luhansk etc are totally destroyed now. Most people who wanted to be Ukrainian have either fled West or got forcibly dragged to Russian filtration camps. Everything left is pockmarked ruins. It would serve the Russian assholes right to get stuck with their "prize". And a ruined wasteland buffer zone between them and Russia may be in Ukraine's interest also assuming those separatist assholes dont keep starting trouble. But I think Ukraine will and should make an attempt to retake it. |
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:06:27 PM EDT
[#15]
I suspect there aren’t a lot of separatists left.
|
|
|
|
FL, USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:13:16 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: The second tank that was hit looked more like it backed over a mine rather than taking an arty round. You can see the ass end of the tank actually lift off the ground when the explosion happened. Whatever the case, that is another platoon of orc tanks out of commission, along with several orcs. I never cared much for the idea of being a foot mobile soldier. Armor/Mech seemed like the way to go. But damn, this war is making the notion of light infantry seem much more palatable. Gee whiz, these Russian tanks are fucking death traps. I have often heard people debating over the past 30 years about the Gulf War and how things would have been different had we faced actual Russian T72s and not monkey model Iraqi versions. It is now apparent that ALL Russian tanks are monkey models. I also suspected that tank backed over a mine but that road seemed "well travelled". Who knows. Maybe it was a VERY close arty hit? Either way that column got shut down hard. |
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:18:43 PM EDT
[#17]
Hearing reports that Ukrainian forces may have drawn the Russians into a trap in Severodonetsk. I'm not sure as to the validity of these claims, but it could be a big deal if true.
|
|
|
|
FL, USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:18:50 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: "Belarus is transferring armored vehicles to the border with Ukraine: an echelon of 50 units of equipment has been spotted, Belarusian Gayun reports. "Yesterday in the Grodno region, at the railway stations" Korobchytsya "and" Svisloch "there was equipment, including: 37 units of BMP, 5 SAM 9K33M3" Osa ", 2 Urals, BRDM-2, BTS-4, 2 units of bases for SAM" Wasp "under the awning. All equipment belongs to the Armed Forces of Belarus, on many of the cars you can see the identification mark - a red square "" Telegram Video I would love to see Belarus get pounded for their role in this debacle. They hosted the invasion and they REALLY SHOULD pay out the ass. I guess Ukraine has their hands full now but hopefully, when the Donbass is resolved one way or the other, Belarus should be remembered good and hard. |
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:23:37 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MBUZICHOMA: Much more resistant to EMP than current electronics. Some our B-52's have ECM with vacuum tubes. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MBUZICHOMA: Originally Posted By Charging_Handle: Originally Posted By Jack67: Now that we are up to date on cutting edge drone tech*, It's time for something completely different: Retro hardware from downed Kh-22 missile near Odesa, vacuum tubes and hand-looped memory. I uploaded the key photos if you don't want to follow the tweet.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/FUGC3CsXsAAAC-n_jpg-2405232.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/FUGEVWfWYAI9vnE_jpg-2405233.JPG * that was a great discussion and great answers and analysis to my question. It is funny how often we joke about the Russians still being dependent on vacuum tube technology, yet the joke is actually largely based on facts. That looks like the freaking parts that came out of recycled 1950s/1960s era linear amplifiers for HAM radios that illegal CB'ers were running for extra power for base stations back in the 1980s. Much more resistant to EMP than current electronics. Some our B-52's have ECM with vacuum tubes. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:24:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: stone-age]
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Hearing reports that Ukrainian forces may have drawn the Russians into a trap in Severodonetsk. I'm not sure as to the validity of these claims, but it could be a big deal if true. Do you have something to link to or is it mostly word of mouth stuff right now? Edit, I found something. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v3crtt/arestovich_we_lured_the_russian_troops_into_a/ 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:27:42 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I also suspected that tank backed over a mine but that road seemed "well travelled". Who knows. Maybe it was a VERY close arty hit? Either way that column got shut down hard. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Charging_Handle: The second tank that was hit looked more like it backed over a mine rather than taking an arty round. You can see the ass end of the tank actually lift off the ground when the explosion happened. Whatever the case, that is another platoon of orc tanks out of commission, along with several orcs. I never cared much for the idea of being a foot mobile soldier. Armor/Mech seemed like the way to go. But damn, this war is making the notion of light infantry seem much more palatable. Gee whiz, these Russian tanks are fucking death traps. I have often heard people debating over the past 30 years about the Gulf War and how things would have been different had we faced actual Russian T72s and not monkey model Iraqi versions. It is now apparent that ALL Russian tanks are monkey models. I also suspected that tank backed over a mine but that road seemed "well travelled". Who knows. Maybe it was a VERY close arty hit? Either way that column got shut down hard. Imagine having the stealth and mobility of a regular human but the strength of a road rage gorilla, while wrapped up in enough armor to protect from small arms. The extra power would give you the ability to carry and manage multiple ATGMs, drones, and more ammo. Those guys from the 70s/80s were freaking psychics. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:37:45 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Do you have something to link to or is it mostly word of mouth stuff right now? Edit, I found something. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v3crtt/arestovich_we_lured_the_russian_troops_into_a/ https://i.redd.it/16qr63h7i8391.png Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Hearing reports that Ukrainian forces may have drawn the Russians into a trap in Severodonetsk. I'm not sure as to the validity of these claims, but it could be a big deal if true. Do you have something to link to or is it mostly word of mouth stuff right now? Edit, I found something. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v3crtt/arestovich_we_lured_the_russian_troops_into_a/ https://i.redd.it/16qr63h7i8391.png Yeah, this is the thread on Reddit where I heard about it: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/v3fmui/general_staff_the_armed_forces_do_not_need_to/ Who knows how true it is, but it's interesting nonetheless. There's some interesting speculation in the comments of that thread, too. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:40:52 PM EDT
[#23]
 Ukrainian troops blow up Russian tanks one-by-one in Donbas The Battle Group K2 of the 54th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, part of Operational Command East, said they came across the ‘uninvited tourists’ wandering the deserted streets of Marinka, a town in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk Oblast. The military group said on 2nd June: “Another success: ‘tourists’ in the Donbas region are missing their armored vehicles. |
|
|
|
TX, USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:45:57 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I would love to see Belarus get pounded for their role in this debacle. They hosted the invasion and they REALLY SHOULD pay out the ass. I guess Ukraine has their hands full now but hopefully, when the Donbass is resolved one way or the other, Belarus should be remembered good and hard. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Dracster: "Belarus is transferring armored vehicles to the border with Ukraine: an echelon of 50 units of equipment has been spotted, Belarusian Gayun reports. "Yesterday in the Grodno region, at the railway stations" Korobchytsya "and" Svisloch "there was equipment, including: 37 units of BMP, 5 SAM 9K33M3" Osa ", 2 Urals, BRDM-2, BTS-4, 2 units of bases for SAM" Wasp "under the awning. All equipment belongs to the Armed Forces of Belarus, on many of the cars you can see the identification mark - a red square "" Telegram Video I would love to see Belarus get pounded for their role in this debacle. They hosted the invasion and they REALLY SHOULD pay out the ass. I guess Ukraine has their hands full now but hopefully, when the Donbass is resolved one way or the other, Belarus should be remembered good and hard. They've made themselves a pariah state. Russia is now the source from which all things flow... As demonstrated recently, Russian bitch states tend to not be treated all that well 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:52:17 PM EDT
[#25]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:53:38 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Yeah, this is the thread on Reddit where I heard about it: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/v3fmui/general_staff_the_armed_forces_do_not_need_to/ Who knows how true it is, but it's interesting nonetheless. There's some interesting speculation in the comments of that thread, too. If it's true it's freakin great. And if it's true, hopefully russians will be too stupid or arrogant to prevent them from falling into a similar trap again. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:56:53 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
lol, they are running out of drones. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:57:14 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Now that we are up to date on cutting edge drone tech*, It's time for something completely different: Retro hardware from downed Kh-22 missile near Odesa, vacuum tubes and hand-looped memory. I uploaded the key photos if you don't want to follow the tweet.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/FUGC3CsXsAAAC-n_jpg-2405232.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/FUGEVWfWYAI9vnE_jpg-2405233.JPG * that was a great discussion and great answers and analysis to my question. 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:58:23 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Circuits: That loop memory module is pure sex, cutting edge 1970s tech - systems like that sent Apollo 11 to the moon. Completely agree. The loop memory may not be cutting edge (by decades), but damn is it cool! |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 5:59:09 PM EDT
[#30]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 6:01:56 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: lol, they are running out of drones.  
|
|
|
|
CO, USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 6:03:18 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CharlieR]
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: That twiter thread about MRLS by Thomas Theiner was pretty good, but I'm wondering if accuracy and range of the MRLS along with hopefully targeting assets (like the MQ-1C) will make as much of an impact as he suggests (versus the less accurate MRLS systems they have already been using). There was a lot of hype in the media about the M777 (particularly about the range) when it was first being deployed to Ukraine. I believe it is probably more accurate and lighter (more mobile) than the Russian systems; but maybe the difference is comparable to say transitioning a small unit with AK74 to M4 with red dots (especially if the Ukranian forces are not using many Excaliber or other advanced rounds). Therefore, definitely better but maybe not that significantly different in capability. I do think it was critical to transition Ukraine to 155mm (from 152mm) for stable resupply, but that was really just necessary to maintain an exisiting capability (with some incremental enhancements). I track Ukraine's reports of Russian losses and I'm not really seeing much or any difference of artillery killed for when the M777 was introduced (~6/day artillery killed). I'm sure they have other higher priority targets (C2, ammo dumps, etc), but I would have hoped to see an increase from counter-fire given how much Russian artillery seems to be punishing Ukraine currently (I recognize there is collection bias and possible filtering of the numbers reported). Hopefully the analogy for HIMARS/M30 will be a scoped sniper rifle vs the SMERCH being a powerful rifle with iron sights - where the usable differences at longer range are more significant. Thoughts from the SME's? (would you expect there be an impact we will be able to measure/see?) Also, is there any material support missing that we could realistically be providing at this point that could potentially make a significant impact? (or is it just the logistics of pushing more material and training more people) Unfortunately, it does appear that Russia is learning and presenting a more difficult challenge (not overextending supply routes as with early phase, hearing less about intercetping comms, etc.). In the beginning the Russians tried to blitzkrieg. They did badly. They are now very slowly, moving forward, linearly, and pounding Ukrainian positions with artillery. It appears their jets arent too good and their rotary wing isnt either, but hard to say. Russian infantry is irrelevant, mostly. What the Ukrainians could have used is the ability to destroy Russian artillery. If they were given MLRS/HIMARS at the outset they could have been attriting Russian artillery more. That hasn't happened as much as it could have. The Ukrainians don't have air superiority or even parity, so that's out. Armed US UAVs would have been helpful months ago. The Russians are following the Finland 1940 playbook. If it is possible to really start killing Russian artillery everything else stops. Needs: Better artillery, better UAVs. As it is hard to say how well that is working, it would appear that the answer is a mobile defense. Infantry falls back, and the Ukrainian tanks execute mobile counterattacks. Problem with that is armored counterattacks are tough to do when you don't have air superiority. It gets very difficult. Instead of a big armored counteroffensive, a series of small, decentralized blows, but you're going to have to close with the enemy and get in there, to paint a confusing picture so the Red Air Force cant weigh in. SO those are the options. They may be working, I cant tell, I'm just a guy sitting at a keyboard looking at unclass stuff on the interwebs. Assuming NATO is giving them good intel, long range armed drones and rocket launchers need to attrit the Russian artillery and kill it, or knock it down. Small counterattacks, but they need to be done differently, almost North Vietnamese Army style: Attrit the Russian tanks with javelins, You flood the area of operations with SAMs, create places Russian aircraft cant go, then transit through quickly with Ukrainian tanks and roll up the Russians from their flanks, knowing you are going to take lumps if the Russian Air Force can get it together. Schwacking Russian Command posts in the process with SOF. Anybody who read how the Russians attacked the Finns understood that this "defensive weapon" approach of javelins and stingers had limitations, and those chickens are coming home to roost. The Ukrainians are most likely needing big, heavy iron right about now. They may have time. Probably do. The current level of stupidity is to deny the Ukrainians ATACMS as they might shoot them into Russia. I am assuming the Russian helicopters are parked outside of 155mm range, and targeting them on the ground will be helpful, to put it mildly. Without ATACMS a lot of deep targets are going untouched. Key matchups: Ukrainian ability to use artillery to conduct effective counterbattery at scale, Ukrainian ability to launch battalion or brigade sized tank counterattacks and do significant damage without losses. Russian ability to surge large numbers of UAVs and attack aviation on short notice, and kill tanks. Ukrainian ability to surge SAMs forward into specified areas and prevent the Russians from hitting tank counterattacks. |
|
|
OR, USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 6:04:11 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Now that we are up to date on cutting edge drone tech*, It's time for something completely different: Retro hardware from downed Kh-22 missile near Odesa, vacuum tubes and hand-looped memory. I uploaded the key photos if you don't want to follow the tweet.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/FUGC3CsXsAAAC-n_jpg-2405232.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/FUGEVWfWYAI9vnE_jpg-2405233.JPG * that was a great discussion and great answers and analysis to my question. |
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 6:04:52 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Yeah, this is the thread on Reddit where I heard about it: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/v3fmui/general_staff_the_armed_forces_do_not_need_to/ Who knows how true it is, but it's interesting nonetheless. There's some interesting speculation in the comments of that thread, too. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Yeah, this is the thread on Reddit where I heard about it: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/v3fmui/general_staff_the_armed_forces_do_not_need_to/ Who knows how true it is, but it's interesting nonetheless. There's some interesting speculation in the comments of that thread, too. I have wondered if they would try tactics like that. I bet they may be doing it. They have shown a level of tactical competence that indicates the battlefield commanders are not being constrained by political goals ("There is no land beyond the Volga!" type BS). I've always remembered a quote attributed to Patton at the command meeting on the response to the Ardennes Offensive (Bulge): “Hell, let’s have the guts to let the sons of bitches go all the way to Paris. Then we’ll really cut ’em up and chew ’em up.” |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 6:06:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/boxes-canon-logo-warehouse-pallet-editorial-d-rendering-130574237.jpg Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: lol, they are running out of drones. https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/boxes-canon-logo-warehouse-pallet-editorial-d-rendering-130574237.jpg lol Imagine the Russian defense company that made those, and charged at minimum $87,000 each for what is a $600 item tops. Plus because of the price the Russian govt. paid, they only got a limited supply at the horrible prices.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 6:11:38 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Who knows how true it is, but it's interesting nonetheless. There's some interesting speculation in the comments of that thread, too. That's funny right there - "They have already reported about the capture of the SD" I bet "They" are terrified of having to report they lost it again a day or two after, so are over-committing assets to hold it. Slow, careful advance under artillery becomes "Leeroy Jenkins!" |
|
|
|
SJM
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 6:13:14 PM EDT
[Last Edit: LurkerII]
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By colossians323: The retard doesn't understand that CO2 emissions aren't really a pollutant. If so, he better quit breathing, because every time he exhales he is guilty Sounds like a product of the public indoctrination system in America Without CO2, all plants will die. Without CO2 plants cannot produce the oxygen we breathe. Without CO2 we all die. Basic High School Biology. Climate change bullshit indoctrination for sure. |
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 6:15:04 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: TOS-2 That's Pretty Sophisticated For A Bunch Of Half-Assed Mountain Boys... |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 6:59:01 PM EDT
[#39]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-2
June 2, 6:15pm ET Russian forces continued to make incremental, grinding, and costly progress in eastern Ukraine on June 2. Russian troops continued operations to capture Severodonetsk and further operations to capture Lysychansk. Russian military leadership will likely use the capture of these two cities to claim they have “liberated” all of Luhansk Oblast before turning to Donetsk Oblast but Russian forces are unlikely to have the forces necessary to take substantial territory in Donetsk Oblast after suffering further losses around Severodonetsk. Russian forces are evidently limited by terrain in the Donbas and will continue to face challenges crossing the Siverskyi Donets River to complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk-Lysychansk and make further advances westward of Lyman towards Slovyansk via Raihorodok.[1] Russian military leadership continues to experience complications with sufficient force generation and maintaining the morale of mobilized personnel. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) 1st Army Corps, under Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army, is conducting forced mobilization in occupied areas of Donetsk Oblast.[2] Russian forced mobilization is highly unlikely to generate meaningful combat power and will exacerbate low morale and poor discipline in Russian and proxy units. The 113th Regiment of the DNR posted a video appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 2 wherein forcibly-mobilized soldiers complain they have spent the entire war on the frontline in Kherson without food or medicine, and that mobilization committees did not conduct requisite medical screenings and admitted individuals whose medical conditions should have disqualified them from service.[3] Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate additionally released an intercepted phone conversation wherein DNR soldiers similarly complained that physically unfit individuals were forced into service and that mobilized units are experiencing mass drunkenness and general disorder.[4] Russian forces are additionally struggling to successfully rotate servicemen in and out of combat. Spokesperson for the Odesa Military Administration Maksym Marchenko stated that 30 to 40% of Russian personnel that rotated out of Ukraine refused to return, forcing Russian commanders to send unprepared and unmotivated units back into combat.[5] This is consistent with complaints made by DNR servicemen that rotation practices are contributing to poor morale and dissatisfaction within units that have been forcibly mobilized.[6] Russian occupation authorities continue to face challenges establishing permanent societal control in newly occupied Ukrainian territories. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian occupational administrations “are [only] created on paper” and are incapable of controlling local populations, enforcing the use of the Russian ruble, or conducting bureaucratic processes.[7] The Ukrainian Resistance Center noted that Ukrainian civilians welcome partisan activity that systematically sabotages Russian occupation rule. Key Takeaways Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikely to do so in the coming days, as Russian forces continue to prioritize Severodonetsk at the expense of other axes of advance. Russian forces continued assaults against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in order to claim full control of Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces made incremental advances around Avdiivka. Ukrainian counteroffensives in northwestern Kherson Oblast pushed Russian forces to the eastern bank of the Inhulets River and will likely continue to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the T2207 highway. The Kremlin continued to pursue inconsistent occupational measures in southern Ukraine, indicating both widespread Ukrainian resistance and likely Kremlin indecision on how to integrate occupied territory.  Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts); Subordinate main effort- Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv City; Supporting effort 2—Southern axis; Activities in Russian-occupied areas Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces conducted limited unsuccessful attacks and continued efforts to resume larger-scale offensives southeast of Izyum towards Slovyansk on June 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces focused on maintaining their current positions southeast of Izyum and shelled Dovhenke, Kurulka, Virnopillya, and Dolyna in order to set conditions to renew offensive operations towards Slovyansk.  Russian forces additionally conducted unsuccessful assault operations around Studenok, Sosnove, Svyatohirsk, and Yarova, several settlements southeast of Izyum along roadways connecting to the Izyum-Slovyansk highway near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.[9] Russian troops likely seek to capture this highway to exploit road access to support advances on Slovyansk. Russian forces in the Lyman reportedly attempted an additional, unsuccessful assault on Raihorodok, northeast of Slovyansk.[10]Russian forces attempting to advance on Slovyansk from both Izyum and Lyman remain largely stalled and are unlikely to make significant progress in the coming days, particularly as the majority of Russian forces continue to focus on Severodonetsk.Russian forces continued ground assaults in and around Severodonetsk on June 2.[11] Head of the Luhansk People‘s Republic (LNR) Leonid Pasechnik claimed that the LNR controls all of Luhansk Oblast except for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.[12] Deputy Chief of the Main Operations Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Oleksiy Gromov notably stated that despite Russian efforts to surround Severodonetsk, Ukrainian troops do not need to fully withdraw from the city.[13] Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks to the south of Severodonetsk-Lysychansk in Bobrove and Ustynivka.[14] The UK Ministry of Defense stated that Russian forces will likely be inhibited in their attempt to advance into Lysychansk from Severodonetsk (if they are first able to capture Severodonetsk itself) due to the tactical challenge of crossing the Siverskyi Donets River.[15] The UK Ministry of Defense additionally noted that Russian forces will likely need a brief tactical pause to prepare for subsequent attempts to cross the Siverskyi Donets River if they intend further operations into Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. [16] Russian forces continued ground, rocket, and artillery strikes around Donetsk Oblast on June 2.[17] Russian forces continued offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut around Komyshuvakha, Mykailivka, Vrubivka, Berestove, Bilohorivka, Svitlodarsk, and Nahirne in order to cut ground lines of communication (GLOCs) northeast of Bakhmut and support continuing but slow-moving operations to encircle Severodonetsk-Lysychansk from the south.[18] The DNR claimed that the Russian grouping in the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area made incremental gains around Avdiivka and reportedly broke through Ukrainian defenses in Verkhnotoreske, though ISW cannot independently confirm this claim.[19]   Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum) Russian forces conducted rocket and artillery strikes on Kharkiv City and northern Kharkiv Oblast on June 2.[20] Russian forces shelled residential districts of Kharkiv City, Tsyrkuny, Chuhuiv, Prudyanka, and Mykhailivka in an attempt to maintain their positions to the north of Kharkiv City.[21] A Russian Telegram channel claimed that clashes between Russian and Ukrainian troops occurred in Vesele and Tsupivka, both north of Kharkiv City, indicating that local fighting continues along the frontline in northern Kharkiv Oblast.[22]  Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporozhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks) Ukrainian counteroffensives in northwestern Kherson Oblast likely pushed Russian forces back to their established defensive positions on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River on June 2. Geolocated drone footage confirms Ukrainian forces conducted a counteroffensive near Starosillya, a settlement on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River and just 12 kilometers south of the northernmost area of Russian control.[23] Kherson Oblast Military Administration Head Hannadiy Lahuta reported that Ukrainian forces liberated 20 unnamed villages in Kherson Oblast, likely referring to the settlements on the western bank of the Inhulets River.[24] ISW cannot independently confirm these territorial changes at this time, but Ukrainian defenders have likely secured the western Ihululets riverbank. Ukrainian forces on the west bank of the Ihulets River are likely able to fire on and disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that stretch along the T2207 highway within a kilometer of the river.[25] Russian forces are taking measures to hinder further Ukrainian counteroffensives on the western Kherson-Mykaloiv Oblast border. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces are planning a counteroffensive in Mykolaiv Oblast and engaged in heavy battles with Russian forces in the Oblast on June 2.[26] Russian military Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Ukrainian forces will attempt to liberate Snihurivka, approximately 66 kilometers east of Mykolaiv City.[27] Russian forces conducted a missile strike on a railway bridge northwest of Mykolaiv City likely to preempt the transfer of Ukrainian forces and equipment in the area.[28] Russian occupation authorities continued to cut off telecommunications signals in Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts, and Ukrainian officials speculated that Russian forces fear Ukrainian counteroffensives and partisan activity in occupied settlements and seek to limit Ukrainian communications.[29]  Activity in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing) The Kremlin continues to send mixed signals about its plans to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories – likely indicating the Kremlin has not decided on a single course of action. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that a referendum to integrate Donbas to Russia is “hardly possible” without fully ensuring security in the region, but did not specify what the Kremlin would consider “ensuring security.”[30] Leader of the “Fair Russia” Party (part of the pro-Kremlin “systemic opposition” of parties not directly affiliated with Putin’s United Russia party but not posing any real opposition) Sergei Mironov said that any Ukrainian Oblast may join Russia, likely in support of other claims by Russian State Duma members that the Kremlin will annex Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblast as soon as July.[31] Russian Senator Andrey Turchak announced the opening of a United Russia ”humanitarian center” in Kherson City and claimed to have negotiated industrial cooperation agreements between Kherson Oblast and Russia, but exact Russian plans for occupied Kherson remain unclear.[32] Russian-backed occupation authorities in Zaporizhia also announced the “nationalization” of Ukrainian state property, including the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which could suggest that the Kremlin seeks to economically exploit newly occupied territories with or without direct annexation.[33] Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin previously stated that the Zaporizhia NPP will exclusively work for Russia and will sell electricity to Ukraine.[34] Ukrainian state energy company “Energoatom” noted that Russia physically cannot export electricity from the Zaporizhia NPP as Russia is not connected to the Ukrainian or European energy grid.[35] The fate of the Mariupol defenders taken prisoner by Russian forces remains unclear. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian officials are discussing prisoner exchanges with Russian forces, but refused to comment on the status of the negotiations.[36] Russian sources claimed that members of the Ukrainian Azov Regiment are imprisoned in Olenivka, approximately 22 kilometers from Donetsk City.[37] |
|
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 7:23:13 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: The problem with that strategy is that there isn't time for a slow boil approach. We need to get significant firepower into Ukraine within a month, or else there may not be any Donbass left to defend, the Russians will have it. I can understand why it is sometimes necessary to trade some land for time. But time is limited. And Ukraine cannot afford to give up much land because getting that land back is not going to be easy. Once the Russians take an area, get thoroughly dug in, get established and get re-supplied, the Ukrainian forces are going to have a really tough time if and when they try to go on the offensive to retake these areas. They'll be attacking into the teeth of well prepared defenses just as the Russians have, and taking the same fearful number of casualties. No, this war needs to be ended as quickly and decisively as possible. If we are going to support Ukraine, then lets support them and stop slow rolling them. The longer this goes on, the more I get the impression we are doing just enough to keep Ukraine from being defeated, but not doing enough to actually help them win this thing and end the destruction of their cities. I hope it isn't the case, but this has the feel that we're simply using the Ukrainians to involve Russia in a long, drawn out, bloody and costly fight to weaken them, but without much consideration toward the Ukrainian people. I have a problem with that. I don't like using people. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: Originally Posted By Capta: The US, UK, and Germany are each sending 4 each at this time, enough to equip two batteries. A battalion is 18 launchers. Finland has something like 35 but probably doesn’t want to hand them out right now. But who knows? The best security guarantee for Finland is for the Russian army to be broken in Ukraine. Germany and the UK would be in position to send at least another 4 each. Greece and Italy would be in position to send 4 each. Norway has 12 in storage it can send. Counting what is in the first batch and excluding the US, you will probably see 20-24 more sent from NATO countries, enough for two battalions total. The US could also easily supply another three battalions worth in the future. This is probably the plan. It’s happening this way for political reasons to show that NATO is unified and everyone has skin in the game. More will follow in another few weeks. Russia is the frog being boiled alive. The problem with that strategy is that there isn't time for a slow boil approach. We need to get significant firepower into Ukraine within a month, or else there may not be any Donbass left to defend, the Russians will have it. I can understand why it is sometimes necessary to trade some land for time. But time is limited. And Ukraine cannot afford to give up much land because getting that land back is not going to be easy. Once the Russians take an area, get thoroughly dug in, get established and get re-supplied, the Ukrainian forces are going to have a really tough time if and when they try to go on the offensive to retake these areas. They'll be attacking into the teeth of well prepared defenses just as the Russians have, and taking the same fearful number of casualties. No, this war needs to be ended as quickly and decisively as possible. If we are going to support Ukraine, then lets support them and stop slow rolling them. The longer this goes on, the more I get the impression we are doing just enough to keep Ukraine from being defeated, but not doing enough to actually help them win this thing and end the destruction of their cities. I hope it isn't the case, but this has the feel that we're simply using the Ukrainians to involve Russia in a long, drawn out, bloody and costly fight to weaken them, but without much consideration toward the Ukrainian people. I have a problem with that. I don't like using people. There is time and it’s already happening. No one should buy the Russian perspective that once they control all of Donbas, they made it to home plate and the war is over. Total hogwash. The war will continue until the Russian army or the Russian government collapses, whichever comes first. Ukraine has the will to fight and we have the will to support them. This is great power politics is at its most ruthless and you need to think about it in that way. What are the war aims, boiled down to their essentials? For the US, it’s to crush Russia once and for all while minimizing risk to ourselves and our close allies. Then we deal with China. For Ukraine, it’s to survive long-term as a viable nation-state. Remember the word *viable*. Note that neither one of these aims requires Ukraine to minimize manpower losses. You’re thinking from the bottom up as the little guy who would like not to die. Consider this. If the US/NATO had immediately jumped in with two feet, supplied MLRS, supplied arty, supplied F16s, and so on - there is IMO a very decent chance that even that moron Putin would’ve gotten the message. Russia retreats with a mostly intact army to lick its wounds and learns some valuable operational lessons, and in 5 or 10 years comes back for blood. From the Ukrainian perspective, while Russia exists as a political and military threat, Ukraine will never be safe no matter how much they spend on defense. Ukraine must also continue to fight because it is not a *viable* nation state if it is shorn of the Donbas and the energy resources in the Black Sea. Thus Ukrainian survival in the long term is maximized by whatever course of action results in the crippling of Russia, even if that course is a bloody one for them in the short term. All this is IMO - but I believe there is a good chance this understanding exists between Ukraine and the US at the highest levels. That doesn’t mean I dislike Zelensky for it, quite the contrary. He’s making a play for the survival and future security of his nation. I also think Ukraine needs to drive a hard bargain. They’re doing what has to be done and they need to be compensated. And I don’t mean “10% off the top for the big guy”. I mean full rebuilding paid for by the EU, full integration with Europe on favorable terms, and territorial concessions from Russia in the aftermath of its collapse. Make us pay. And when push comes to shove, Zelensky and Ukraine holds the trump card. (No, I don’t mean the former president.). I mean that the nuclear option for Ukraine is to turn coat and cut a deal with the Russians, then together turn on Europe. If Ukraine feels the west isn't holding up their end of the deal, they can utterly destroy the western aim of using Ukraine to crush Russia. And all that hardware we gave them will be going to the Russians and used against us. Don’t think it can happen? This is fucking hardball. This is why the west can’t hang Ukraine out to dry just to wring a bit more blood out of Russia. |
|
|
FL, USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 7:35:36 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: This has been exactly my feeling about "our" support from the start. I believe "we" want the russians to send into Ukraine more and more tanks and soldiers to die because as our leaders have said in public, the goal is to destroy the russian army. And a quick decisive war would simply drive the russians back to their own border. So "we" are perfectly willing to use Ukraine citizens as cannon fodder in order to damage the russian army. It is not honorable or nice. If the Ukranians want to give up land in order to draw the russians out of there hardened defensive positions so they can be attacked by mobile Ukranian military forces, cool. I wish somebody would have said that earlier, or said it in a simple way so I could understand it. But while russians are allowed to hold ground, they are doing bad things to all the stuff that Ukranian citizens have been building with their sweat and blood for decades, and the russians are doing worse things to the Ukranians who are still there. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By Charging_Handle: No, this war needs to be ended as quickly and decisively as possible. If we are going to support Ukraine, then lets support them and stop slow rolling them. The longer this goes on, the more I get the impression we are doing just enough to keep Ukraine from being defeated, but not doing enough to actually help them win this thing and end the destruction of their cities. I hope it isn't the case, but this has the feel that we're simply using the Ukrainians to involve Russia in a long, drawn out, bloody and costly fight to weaken them, but without much consideration toward the Ukrainian people. I have a problem with that. I don't like using people. This has been exactly my feeling about "our" support from the start. I believe "we" want the russians to send into Ukraine more and more tanks and soldiers to die because as our leaders have said in public, the goal is to destroy the russian army. And a quick decisive war would simply drive the russians back to their own border. So "we" are perfectly willing to use Ukraine citizens as cannon fodder in order to damage the russian army. It is not honorable or nice. Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Concur. However, from the Ukrainian point of view, maintaining an "Army in being" in the east probably strategically outweighs minor territorial considerations. The Russians are willing to expend masses of material and manpower for minor (and sometimes trivial) territorial gains. The Russians want a WWI-style "trench warfare" battle that plays to their advantages over the UA, forcing the UA into fixed positions that can be reduced by massed (and not very accurate) artillery and overwhelmed in detail by massed assaults conducted with little regard for casualties. UA does not want to be decisively engaged in an attritional fight or get decisively fixed, as their strengths are maneuver, initiative, and flexibility, all of which are negated when they are pinned in fixed positions by Russian artillery. At some point (maybe after Mariupol), the UA apparently decided to allow the Russians to advance in the east, both to avoid encirclement and to force the Orcs to maintain/sustain offensive OPTEMPO in order to "open up" the Russian logistics to further attacks. This also complicated Russian rear area security and creates sustainment issues from Hell. Apparently, the Ukrainians are betting that the Orcs will culminate sometime this summer and be incapable of effectively countering dispersed counteroffensives, and have the UA forces facing the Orcs in the Donbass mobile outside of fixed/hardened defensive lines will move from being a liability to an asset. The Russians set up for a decisive (read "short") war, while the UA apparently sees this as a long campaign. The Russian destruction of civilian infrastructure will complicate "pacifying" the Donbass, and with the word out that occupation by Russia includes a free trip to Siberia, 80% of the locals a self evacuating to Ukraine before the Russians arrive, breaking much of the influence the Russians previously had among formerly Russia-friendly and neutrals in the Donbass, as the vast majority of the refugees fleeing to Kiev and points west are Russian-speakers, and word gets out being "pro-Russian" when the Orcs come to your town does nothing to save you. I know that "Putin is a Master Strategist", but I see no effective end to this conflict that benefits Russia operationally or strategically short of Ukraine negotiating to end the war and favorable terms to Russia. Turning all of the contested areas of the Donbass into rubble, deporting the captured population, and using your Luhansk and Donbass supporters as cannon fodder while grinding the most patriotic young Russians into hamburger and getting over 30% of your Army's best equipment turned into scrap metal does not set up many favorable endstates for the Russians at this point. And this does not even take into account the level of Geopolitical, economic, and diplomatic damage done, not to mention that likely far more educated and young Russians are fleeing Russia than are being forcibly imported from Ukraine, what kind of Putin "victory" is even possible? As of right now, it appears that Russia owns the watch but Ukraine owns the calendar. If the Ukranians want to give up land in order to draw the russians out of there hardened defensive positions so they can be attacked by mobile Ukranian military forces, cool. I wish somebody would have said that earlier, or said it in a simple way so I could understand it. But while russians are allowed to hold ground, they are doing bad things to all the stuff that Ukranian citizens have been building with their sweat and blood for decades, and the russians are doing worse things to the Ukranians who are still there. I am an OFWG in Fort Myers, FL, so I am clearly NOT a Ukrainian strategist , but I understand, due to a lot of factors, they have to fight a different sort of war than an American Army would fight under similar circumstances. 1) The Ukrainians' short-term goals are to raise a 1,000,000 man army so that they can have a 3:1 superiority for sustained operational offensive action while ensuring that Transnistria and Belarus stay out of the war. Having 1,000,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers is not the intent, so economy of force and force generation are key tasks which the UA has to succeed at. 2) Trying to hold terrain that is being destroyed by Russian artillery that does not hold operational or strategic value makes little sense when you can inflict as many/more casualties by running a series of guard and cover missions which attrit the enemy's combat forces also complicates the enemy's logistics and can leave LOC nodes and ADA/Artillery/air assets more vulnerable to interdiction. Same goes with citizens; houses can be rebuilt, dead citizens cannot be reanimated. 3) Ukraine didn't ask for this war, nor did the majority of the Russian people for that matter. There are around 30,000 widows and parents in Russia that did not ask for their husbands/kids to come home in zinc boxes, there are tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians who did not ask to be slaughtered, and even many of the folks in Luhansk and Donetsk who were initially sympathetic to Russia have had their world rocked. This is the result of a gambler and his cronies who pushed more chips into the pot than they could really afford to lose on a pair of 9's and assumed everyone else would fold. Putin's goal was far from the destruction of Ukraine; however, he is determined to win this war, and war has it's own logic. |
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 7:47:39 PM EDT
[#42]
Russian tank cooking off. Shot from very close range!
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v3hi1m/russian_tank_cooking_off_after_being_ambushed/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 |
|
|
UKR
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 7:55:05 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: "Belarus is transferring armored vehicles to the border with Ukraine: an echelon of 50 units of equipment has been spotted, Belarusian Gayun reports. "Yesterday in the Grodno region, at the railway stations" Korobchytsya "and" Svisloch "there was equipment, including: 37 units of BMP, 5 SAM 9K33M3" Osa ", 2 Urals, BRDM-2, BTS-4, 2 units of bases for SAM" Wasp "under the awning. All equipment belongs to the Armed Forces of Belarus, on many of the cars you can see the identification mark - a red square "" Telegram Video None of those are really offensive vehicles. Those are defensive. |
|
|
UKR
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 8:23:13 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MBUZICHOMA: Much more resistant to EMP than current electronics. Some our B-52's have ECM with vacuum tubes. Pretty pointless on a 2022 battlefield |
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 9:09:58 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Zhukov]
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: And another good video from the Austrian Army. If trying to read the wall of text and interpret the maps from the ISW are a bit much for you, this is a rather nice summary:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcQ9-asg8ggI don't know if I've ever heard an Austrian speak with less of an Austrian accent than that Colonel. Fascinating. I ended up turning on the auto-translated subtitles for a minute and they were amazingly accurate too. Bad news all around. Interestingly enough, the deployment of T-62s isn't a terrible deal for the Russians apparently. He said it's a tank, it doesn't have to be a modern tank since they are unlikely to encounter Ukrainian armor, and as an armored vehicle with a big gun to support infantry, it's "good enough". The Ukrainians are suffering from battle fatigue, getting continually hammered by Russian artillery. Worse news: Biden is NOT sending M270/HIMARS.  [ETA] I looked for news about MLRS being cancelled and can't find anything. The video shows a news headline that states the US will NOT send it, but it seems like they're still waffling. |
|
|
|
OH, USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 9:28:28 PM EDT
[Last Edit: YaNi05]
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: I don't know if I've ever heard an Austrian speak with less of an Austrian accent than that Colonel. Fascinating. I ended up turning on the auto-translated subtitles for a minute and they were amazingly accurate too. Bad news all around. Interestingly enough, the deployment of T-62s isn't a terrible deal for the Russians apparently. He said it's a tank, it doesn't have to be a modern tank since they are unlikely to encounter Ukrainian armor, and as an armored vehicle with a big gun to support infantry, it's "good enough". The Ukrainians are suffering from battle fatigue, getting continually hammered by Russian artillery. Worse news: Biden is NOT sending M270/HIMARS. [ETA] I looked for news about MLRS being cancelled and can't find anything. The video shows a news headline that states the US will NOT send it, but it seems like they're still waffling. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3050010/advanced-rocket-launcher-system-heads-to-ukraine/ This is from yesterday, but I can't find anything stating that Ukraine isn't getting M270/HIMARS. They're apparently already prepositioned, and from the twitters, are already training Ukrainian users and maintainers.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 9:31:42 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 9:36:53 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jungatheart: Put some breaks in your postings please. Old men like me have a hard time reading that wall of words. Second the motion, please. I like SWHB posts, I want to be able to read them.  |
|
|
|
FL, USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 10:32:02 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: I don't know if I've ever heard an Austrian speak with less of an Austrian accent than that Colonel. Fascinating. I ended up turning on the auto-translated subtitles for a minute and they were amazingly accurate too. Bad news all around. Interestingly enough, the deployment of T-62s isn't a terrible deal for the Russians apparently. He said it's a tank, it doesn't have to be a modern tank since they are unlikely to encounter Ukrainian armor, and as an armored vehicle with a big gun to support infantry, it's "good enough". The Ukrainians are suffering from battle fatigue, getting continually hammered by Russian artillery. Worse news: Biden is NOT sending M270/HIMARS. [ETA] I looked for news about MLRS being cancelled and can't find anything. The video shows a news headline that states the US will NOT send it, but it seems like they're still waffling. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By GTLandser: And another good video from the Austrian Army. If trying to read the wall of text and interpret the maps from the ISW are a bit much for you, this is a rather nice summary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcQ9-asg8ggI don't know if I've ever heard an Austrian speak with less of an Austrian accent than that Colonel. Fascinating. I ended up turning on the auto-translated subtitles for a minute and they were amazingly accurate too. Bad news all around. Interestingly enough, the deployment of T-62s isn't a terrible deal for the Russians apparently. He said it's a tank, it doesn't have to be a modern tank since they are unlikely to encounter Ukrainian armor, and as an armored vehicle with a big gun to support infantry, it's "good enough". The Ukrainians are suffering from battle fatigue, getting continually hammered by Russian artillery. Worse news: Biden is NOT sending M270/HIMARS. [ETA] I looked for news about MLRS being cancelled and can't find anything. The video shows a news headline that states the US will NOT send it, but it seems like they're still waffling. 1) MLRS is still a Go; we are not giving them ATACMS missiles (at least not yet) 2) T62s are a great deal all around! The Orcs get to field more tanks, the Russian soldiers get a minor and temporary morale boost, the UA gets more targets to utilize some obsolescent AT systems effectively, and the Ukrainians get to barbeque four tank crewmen at a time instead of three. |
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 6/2/2022 10:46:57 PM EDT
[#50]
Russians acknowledge that recent footage shows the death of a Kadyrovite battalion commander, blames son of British parliamentarian:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/uyk4o2/ukus_foreign_legion_fights_fire_rgw90_antitank/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v3iowa/russia_says_tory_mps_son_involved_in_killing/ |
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
