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Posted: 3/14/2001 11:22:36 AM EDT

Maybe the next war will be over Taiwan. After that, a couple of ChiCom nuke subs getting close to our shore and then launching... Sure doesn't sound good.


Link Posted: 3/14/2001 11:30:01 AM EDT
[b]China Moves Toward War

Part 1.

Charles R. Smith
Tuesday, March 13, 2001
According to congressional sources, China is rapidly moving toward war. A newly released congressional report predicts that China will attack Taiwan unless the United States supplies badly needed defense systems to the tiny island nation.
"Taiwan is virtually defenseless against the 250 missiles now deployed by Beijing," noted Al Santoli, senior foreign policy adviser to Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. The investigative report prepared by Santoli was delivered to Rep. Henry Hyde, R-Ill., chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee.

"If we do not send strong political signals by enhancing Taiwan's defense systems, and urging democratic cohesion in Taipei, Beijing could go for the gusto [invade Taiwan] even before it reaches its full deployment of 600 cross-Strait missiles by 2005," states the congressional report.

According to the report, Taiwan is now helpless against the growing arsenal of advanced missiles being deployed by Beijing. The report calls upon newly elected President Bush to supply "long-range radar systems" and "software links" to Taiwan to "more rapidly tie together its disparate warning and response systems."

"From Defense Minister Shi-wen Wu to Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Yao-ming Tang to IW/EW Commander Lt. Gen Abe Lin to ship and submarine commanders in Kaoshiung, all emphasized the need for the Aegis naval (radar) system," noted the report.

Clinton Policy Destabilized Region

In 2000, the Clinton administration refused to export the Aegis radar system to Taiwan and withheld U.S.-made AMRAAM air defense, citing pressure from Red China. Congressional defense experts now cite Taiwan's lack of advanced radar and defensive missiles as inviting Red China to attack now.

"The PLA is rapidly bringing a new generation of Russian-made fighters on line with advanced avionics and air-to-air missiles. It is a cruel joke to withhold U.S. AMRAAM missiles purchased by Taiwan in Hawaii until after the PLA begins firing at them," noted the report.

"We should have learned from Vietnam. The current nonsensical policy is similar to Robert McNamara and his Whiz Kids in 1965. Taiwan should receive the AMRAAMs now, to deter an attack."

Red Subs Threaten Taiwan and U.S.

The report also noted that Taiwan's submarine force is badly outnumbered and outclassed by new Chinese attack subs.

"The PLA navy now has 96 operational submarines, including state of the art diesel subs, compared to the 4 submarines of the Taiwan navy. Two of those [Taiwanese] submarines are Guppies built in 1946," states the congressional report.

"The U.S. should sell at least a few submarines to Taiwan, as well as provide advanced air and surface ASW assets."

The newly released congressional report also underscored assessments by U.S. defense analysts about the rapid increase in the Chinese submarine and missile forces. The Chinese navy's single ballistic missile submarine cannot reach American targets from its home waters. However, in January China tested its new submarine-launched JL-2 (Great Wave) missile from underwater.

According to the Cox report, the JL-2 was built using stolen American nuclear secrets. The 7,000-mile-range JL-2 missile is capable of striking three targets with lightweight nuclear warheads and can destroy any city along the heavily populated U.S. West Coast from Chinese home waters.

U.S. intelligence sources confirmed t
Link Posted: 3/14/2001 11:36:02 AM EDT

[b]Part Deux,

KLUB Cruise Missile

In addition, the Chinese navy recently bought two advanced Russian Kilo-class diesel attack submarines. U.S. defense sources stated they were gravely concerned the submarines, undergoing modification in the Russian Bol'shoy Kamen shipyard, would be equipped with a deadly new underwater-fired missile - the 3M54 "KLUB," NATO code-named SS-N-27.

China is reported to be on the verge of concluding a multibillion-dollar arms deal with Moscow to equip its rapidly growing attack submarine force with the KLUB, a long-range, airborne cruise missile reported to be similar in performance and range to the U.S. Tomahawk.

"The Chinese are reported to be interested in the KLUB, but no reports of a sale just yet," stated Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

The KLUB "comes in two versions. One is a 300 km land attack cruise missile similar to the Tomahawk. If the PLA purchases this version of the KLUB, it would then have a strategic force projection capability if placed on current or future submarines," noted Fisher.

"With this version of the KLUB, the PLA could support Iran by attacking Western Coalition bases in the Middle East, or by attacking India in the event of a war with Pakistan. It also has more options to attack Taiwan and U.S. bases in Asia in the event of conflict there," stated Fisher.

"The second version of the KLUB is a subsonic cruise missile with a supersonic rocket second stage that attacks ships. Again, the U.S. or many of its allies lack the ability to defend against this kind of missile. For the PLA, the long range of the KLUB can be exploited once it has its soon-to-be launched constellation of imaging and radar satellites."

Jack Spencer, a defense analyst and senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, echoed Fisher's concerns, noting that the KLUB and other Russian missile were designed with American targets in mind.

"This anti-ship missile is very difficult to defend against and it was developed to kill American ships," emphasized Spencer.

"The thing to remember is that the United States depends largely on its Navy to project power around the world. So we should find it exceedingly troubling that these anti-ship missiles are proliferating at such a dangerous rate," noted Spencer.

Rocket Torpedo

While the U.S. Navy is concerned over the rapid growth of anti-ship missiles such as the KLUB, another modern Russian weapon purchased by Beijing has sent alarm bells ringing through the halls of the Pentagon. According to defense analysts, the Chinese navy recently bought a small number of Russian-made Shkval rocket torpedoes.

"China has reportedly purchased the Shkval, but there are also reports that its current subs do not have tubes large enough to fire it. This very high speed torpedo would provide the PLA with the technology to build their own version, and this is a looming threat," noted the Jamestown Foundation's Richard Fisher.

"The Shkval was designed to give Soviet subs with less capable sonar the ability to kill U.S. submarines before U.S. wire-guided anti-sub torpedoes could reach their target. The PLA would certainly want to have this kind of advantage over U.S. subs in the future. At the speed that it travels, the Shkval could literally punch a hole in most U.S. ships, with little need for an explosive warhead," stated Fisher.

The Shkval rocket came to light in the Western press in 2000 when Russia security services charg
Link Posted: 3/14/2001 11:55:14 AM EDT
The Shkval is also what blew up in the tube and sank the [i]Kursk[/i].  Wonder if the Chinese knew about that before they bought them.  They have a evil reputation in the Russian Navy, even before the [i]Kursk[/i].

The Shkval is unguided, very short ranged, and is designed to a peculiar Russian requirement based on the fact that they cannot hear US and British submarines untill they flood tubes and open doors and launch, making transient mechanical noises.  The Shkval is designed to be fired in spreads down a back bearing from incoming torpedo and is designed as much to make the enemy sub manuver and break its torpedo guidence wires as having actually any hope of hitting the sub.  However its very high speed is designed to permit the Shkval to reach the enemy sub before the slower conventional torpedoes can reach the Russian sub.

We really dont know how much of a threat it is, a lot of Russian designed subs handle like pigs, if one of our ships launched from the rear hemisphere it probably couldnt turn around in time to fire Shkvals. Akulas and possibly Mikes would be the exception to this.  Most diesel boats arent fast enough to do this, period.
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