New Poll shows Kerry Leading Bush

Site Notices

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - New Poll shows Kerry Leading Bush

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:04:44 PM EDT

Fox New reported that a new poll showed Kerry leading the President 47-44%. Though it was not mentioned, the graphic was of registered voters, rather than likely voters. The candidates have been neck and neck in such polls among registered voters, since before the Thursday night debate. Thank God, not all registered voters think enough of their political insight to actually go to the polls and vote.

A Fox News poll, for whatever it is worth, asked whether the debnate changed anyone's mind. 68% who voted said there was no change in their vote. Only 1% said they would need to see the next 2 debates to decide. Among those who said the debate changed their minds on who they would support, 17% said they will now vote for Kerry, and 13% said they will vote for Bush. I sort of doubt it is a scientifically accurate poll, either.

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:11:36 PM EDT

[#1]

must be wrong or something

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:14:55 PM EDT

[#2]

The media has to try to keep it interesting or you won't watch their channel, read their paper, or listen to their radio station. Consider the source!

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:15:49 PM EDT

[#3]

The poll fox was reporting was a Newsweek poll that has been discussed to death here:

www.littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/

1) The methodology is highly suspect.

2) It is a rush job poll.

3) Don't panic.

Look at the makeup of Republicans vs. Democrats in Newsweek’s poll from September 11, 2004: NEWSWEEK POLL: Campaign 2004.

391 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
270 Independents (plus or minus 7)

Compare against the same data from the new poll, which Newsweek is using to claim that Bush’s poll lead has “evaporated:” NEWSWEEK POLL: First Presidential Debate.

345 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
278 Independents (plus or minus 7)

Did Newsweek choose a lower percentage of Republicans for the first debate to set up Kerry’s “comeback,” or did they stack the deck with more Democrats in the second poll?

(Hat tips to all who emailed about this.)

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:15:56 PM EDT

[#4]

DemoRats just got done telling us that POLLS DON'T MATTER.

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:17:17 PM EDT

[#5]

All the ones I saw are still running withing the margin of error, so its close to dead even

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:18:07 PM EDT

[#6]

Rasmussen shows no significant change, althought he says that Kerry gained 1% in the polling after the debate. He seems to be pretty accurate.

The newsweek poll that Ive seen mentioned showing kerry ahead had a lot more democrats sampled in relation to the last newsweek poll, which would account for the jump toward kerry.

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:19:07 PM EDT

[#7]

who gives a fuck? seriously, who cares?

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:21:07 PM EDT

[#8]

Ya know, I keep seeing this kind of thing on T.V., but then I come here and get a different story. At first I thought, aaaahhh it's just cause everyone here wants GW to win, but what is funny is this place always seems to turn out right!

Someone said it here....I just can't remember who.....

45 states....and maybe California.
I'm starting to believe that.

In all seriousness, Kerry might see a slight bump, nothing more. The next SBVFT add will torpedo any gains from the debates.

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:21:16 PM EDT

[#9]

Problems with the 10/2 Newsweek Poll
I see several problems with the Newsweek poll.

#1. It was conducted almost entirely on Friday and Saturday morning. It didn't poll the Eastern and Central time zones on Thursday night. Weekend polls like this usually undersample Republicans.

#2. It has more Democrats than Republicans. I am not certain about the over-under sampling of partisans. I tend to think if the poll is properly conducted, you need to look at party ID as a dependent variable, one that changes with ups and downs. Now -- are we to believe that in the last month there has been more than a 8% net switch in partisan identification? That is what the Newsweek poll from 10/2 stacks up with the Newsweek poll of 9/10.

#3. It is not problematic to me that it is 52% women and 48% men. What I find problematic is that the *men* who were surveyed support Kerry 47% to 45%. Not even Bob Dole did this poorly in 1996. This indicates that they undersampled Republican men. This would, incidentally, make sense in light of the fact that almost all of the sample was done on Friday. What are large swaths of Republican men doing on Friday nights in those red states in the fall? A. During the day they are working; B. During the evening they are at HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES!

(This, my friends, is the reason Kerry is in the lead. He has an insignificant lead among women and Independents...but he also has a similar lead among men. This is unheard of.)

Newsweek usually rushes polls out. I think they do it not so much to get a sense of the electorate, but to make news. Rember that Newsweek is the only poll with the honor of: A. Showing Bob Dole down by 2% in 1996. B. Showing Walter Mondale beating Reagan in 1984.
It is not because they are biased, but because they rush their polls out. The people who are sitting at home on Friday day and Friday evening are not a representative sample of the general American population.

All polls need to be filtered by common sense. This Newsweek poll is like that Pew polls from September. The first showed Bush up by >10, the second showed Bush up by 1, the third showed Bush up by >5. Now, do we really, honestly, truly think that the electorate has bounced around so much?

Similarly, with this Newsweek poll. Do we really, honestly, truly think that Bush is losing men and almost tying women? Do we really, honestly, truly think that the dynamic of the race has shifted by *eight points* since September 10?
If so, I have a bridge I'd like to sell ya! :-)

You can find the internals of the Newsweek poll here: http://www.prnewswire.com.

posted by Jay @ 5:53 PM 1 comments

Ok...maybe I was a tad hyperbolic
Even though I maintain Bush won the debate, I think I was a tad hyperbolic about a negative bump for Kerry in the polls. I expect him to get a small bounce, but this is not because he won the debate. Again, I maintain he did not win it in the true sense.

Kerry will probably get some points for those Democrats who were in the undecided column (i.e. the depressed Democrats) IF (and only IF) the polls like Gallup and Pew are right, those polls which show Kerry at about 40%. Polls which show a higher Kerry output going into the debate, around 46% will show a smaller bump.

Update: Greenberg, Quinlan and Associates show Kerry netted two points on Bush. So there ya go. I generally eschew partisan polls (they are released to influence the news, not to report it). I think this poll is methodologically sloppy, as it measured people before and after the debate (Therefore by contracting those respondents for a post-debate conversation, this poll inclined those people to pay attention more than the average voter would. This makes the sample size unrepresentative of the population in a relevant way.)

Nevertheless, there is no reason for the Dems to jump for joy over this poll. For several reasons:
1. Bush improved his standings across the board, too (though he did not do so as much as Kerry did).
2. Kerry's gains on personal qualities were outside the margin of error, but his bump in the polls was not.
3. Bush still leads Kerry on all the questions of Friday's debate. Iraq, terrorism, etc. Kerry did close the gap. As these numbers occurred on the day of the debate, they will probably deflate -- and return the race to the equilibrium that has existed on these internal issues for a month.
4. The pre-debate horse-race number (Bush 50, Kerry 46) is a tad small.
5. This poll over-sampled third-party voters by at least four points. Three percent of the respondents plan to vote for Nader. Two percent plan to vote for "somebody else." That is 4% more people there than who are showing up in other polls. I would be curious to know if the 2%who switched to Kerry were people from this 5% group.

jaycost.blogspot.com/

Bottom line:

Newsweek are the people who said Gray Davis would not be recalled.

Posted: 10/2/2004 8:22:26 PM EDT

[#10]

Remember, they had the kerry comeback story in the can and this skewed poll is the vehivle to bring it to the forefront.

Posted: 10/2/2004 9:19:44 PM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:
… Someone said it here....I just can't remember who...

<sign> Wish I could say that!!

Quoted:
... Don't panic....

I intend to continue to panic until after the election, thank you!

Even a remote possibility of Kerry getting into the White House is absolutely frightening!! Imagine the evil he could (and no doubt would) do in four years!!

Posted: 10/2/2004 9:32:06 PM EDT

[#12]

Breath in... www.electoral-vote.com/... breath out.

Posted: 10/2/2004 9:36:14 PM EDT

[#13]

Yep, expect Kerry to have a nice run in the polls the next few weeks. Then expect him to get his ass handed to him on election day.

Posted: 10/2/2004 9:36:41 PM EDT

[#14]

As I said in my thread on this... it is not encouraging in and of itself, but right now it stands alone until other polls are released and either confirm a trend or call it into question. The points raised above are valid... you switch your party identification that much in your sample it will scew the results. The time of day is also extremely suspect. I agree what you are likely seeing is some democrats that were undecideds returning to Kerry... he may just as easily lose them again. The national polls also mean shit in the end, its about 50 state polls conducted November 2. So remember, all pilitics IS local... now get out there and pound pavement!

Posted: 10/2/2004 9:40:34 PM EDT

[#15]

I am not surprise after that embarrassing debate. What a let down.

Posted: 10/2/2004 10:10:23 PM EDT

[#16]

SonovafuckingBITCH those smoothtalking, noble-looking, teleprompter-reading, silktongued, lying-ass, cocksucking, shiteating goddamn DEVIOUS mutherfucking leftist in the media!!!!

Gee, maybe if we skew the population of those polled before the debate towards the Republicans and then skew the results after the election BY ALMOST 13% in favor of the DemocRATs - maybe we can CREATE the appearance of a sudden "boost" in the polls for the DemocRATs!

All this polling shows is YET AGAIN the sickening leftwing bias in the major media as everyone's now reporting that GWBush has "fallen behind" in the polls when in fact the previous one was skewed towards GWBush before the debate (391Rep vs 300Dem), and then this one was skewed towards Kerry after the debate (364Dem vs. 345Rep) to ARTIFICIALLY CREATE this "swing" in the polls.

Knowing the "Bandwagon Effect" is a very real and powerful psychological and sociological phenomenon that can be easily manipulated by the media, this is yet ANOTHER example of the left-wing-biased media pulling out all the stops to help their candidate.

The media used a constant bombardment of questionable polling data round the clock 24/7 to help manipulate public opinion during the height of the Clinton impeachment scandal and keep his approval ratings from sinking below 50%.

And now Newsweek is using radically skewed polling numbers to "create" a large swing in momentum towards Kerry because they know that a lot of "undecided voters" will want to go with a "winner" - and the only thing they have to determine who a "winner" is is polling data - very skewed, very manipulated polling data.

Posted: 10/2/2004 10:11:03 PM EDT

[#17]

Dude, nothing is fucked.

Posted: 10/2/2004 10:14:23 PM EDT

[#18]

Maybe this will work in our favor as a means of nipping Republican complacency in the bud! Those who may have stayed home because Bush had it sewn up will now get out and vote! Planerench out.

Posted: 10/2/2004 10:16:47 PM EDT

[#19]

Quoted:
I am not surprise after that embarrassing debate. What a let down.

Yeah I agree bush came out strong but towards the end he was either tired, gave up or just went along with skerry.

Posted: 10/2/2004 10:26:56 PM EDT

[#20]

well I'm thinking a nice 527 commercial that addresses this very issue is needed... or an RNC commercial. In the very least, people should be firing letters to the editor that point out these facts and pointedly mention that journalistic integrity and fairness require that such smoke and mirrors be called out.

Posted: 10/3/2004 8:14:15 AM EDT

[#21]

Bush gains 1/2 point since yesterday

No trend for Kerry

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 49.0%
Kerry 45.4%
Other 2.1%
Not Sure 3.7%
RasmussenReports.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rasmussen Reports Home

Economic Confidence Today

Bush vs. Kerry Today

Bush Job Approval

Congress - GOP vs. Dem

Electoral College

State-by-State Polls

Learn More About RR

Contact Us

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday October 03, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%.

These results are based upon a survey of 3,000 Likely Voters conducted Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday afternoon. As a result, just over two-thirds of the interviews were conducted following Thursday night's Presidential Debate.

Interviews conducted on Friday and Saturday show Kerry with a one-point bounce so far since the debate. However, in post-debate interviews, Bush still leads 49% to 46%.

The debates did little to change voter perceptions of the candidates' political ideology. However, following the debate, there was an increase in the number who say finishing the mission in Iraq is more important than getting troops home as soon as possible.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - New Poll shows Kerry Leading Bush

General » General Discussion

Warning

Confirm Action

About AR15.COM

Stay Connected

Newsletter

Contact Us