A few people asked me where I saw tomorrow's presidential race going.  The pundits are all over the place, there is no clear consensus, the polls are all over the place and none of the "rules" or models seem to apply.  So I have two scenarios, my prediction and a worst case scenario.  With states as close as they are, who can say with certainty.

First I think its going to be around 51 to 52 percent Bush, Kerry 47 percent and third parties making up the balance.

This first map is my prediction



I think PA and Ohio could flip, Bush might grab both, but I don't think Kerry will get both.

This is my worst case scenario



I said above I don't see Kerry getting BOTH Ohio and Pennsylvania... but assuming they do, and Hawaii and Iowa stay true to their roots as democratic states, I see a tie at 269 which would kick the presidential race to the House where each state gets one vote, and republicans currently control 30 state delegations which would be a Bush victory.  The VP would then be kicked over to the Senate, where if numbers hold, cheney would win.

Now does this mean I don't believe Kerry can win?  No, he can win, but I don't think he will... and if he does, it will be by theft.  Which is why its important everybody gets out and votes and everybody volunteers to help get out the vote and work with their local party organizations to combat fraud.

I am running some errands after work and going to try to relax as much as possible tonight for tomorrow.  I'm not sure how much I'll be on-line tonight, so I wanted to answer those who asked how I thought it would work out in the end.

Please, get out and vote Bush... this prediction depends on everybody doing their part as I hope they will.  We can't have a repeat of 2000 folks, not with the turnout that is expected this year.

I'm willing to give up Hawaii... is that your map?

ETA, does RCP have a final projection?  I just looked, don't see one.

Thank you.  And good luck tomorrow.  Get plenty of rest tonight.  

I made mine a couple days ago when somebody started a thread on projections.  I used the LATimes tool to generate a map.

Anybody looking for a good map tool, check out www.latimes.com and go to the politics section.

Quoted: Hiramranger - the maps you propose would be those maps AFTER the various court cases are decided in those states where the votes were close.   When do you realistically believe that we will actually know who the winner is?

We'll know we won tomorrow night... the question is, will the court's need to confirm that?  If that ends up being the case I have no idea when it might be resolved.  Florida is electronic now I believe statewide, so a recount is pretty quick unless the margin falls below a certain level at which case a hand-recount of the machines must be done.  One battle at a time guys, lets win big enough tomorrow that we don't have to fight the second battle!

Hiram, thank you very much for your time and effort for doing all these Electoral Updates.  Your skill and expertise in explaining a complex set of variables was, and is, impressive..  I also admired the way you dealt with your exasperation at some members posts.
I certainly hope you are right in your predictions!

I think PA is gonna go Bush . NJ will go Bush ,along with Ohio. Hawaii Bush

Quoted: Hiram, thank you very much for your time and effort for doing all these Electoral Updates.  Your skill and expertise in explaining a complex set of variables was, and is, impressive..  I also admired the way you dealt with your exasperation at some members posts. I certainly hope you are right in your predictions!

LOL, so do I!

Quoted: I remember HR's predictions in 2000.  It was closer than he called it, but he scored then and I pray he's right this time.

In 2000 there was a little issue with the florida panhandle that could not be predicted and the effect that early calls had on votes in later time zones.  If the call was never made, Florida would have gone handily to us.  There was an estimate that we lost at least 10,000 net voters in the Republican column because of that.

But yes, I did call Bush the winner when everybody else  was sure Gore had it.  I don;t want to be that close again.