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Posted: 11/1/2004 1:05:56 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:08:23 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/1/2004 1:11:44 PM EDT by Torf]
Close but no cigar!

Reality:


Hawaii will go to Kerry, but it will be CLOSE!  I see your map exactly reflects Realclearpolitics.com today poll results.  Good site that one.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:12:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 11/1/2004 1:14:52 PM EDT by HiramRanger]
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:13:40 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:14:19 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HiramRanger:
I'm willing to give up Hawaii... is that your map?



It is my map made from 270towin.com.  I used the numbers from RC politics.com and gave HI to kerry.  WI and MN can switch without any EV change.  I just have a feeling that MN will go to Kerry as well.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:17:08 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:18:00 PM EDT
this whole thing will give me a bad case of the runs....


then again I've never known a good case of the runs
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:37:28 PM EDT
I'm thinking 286 for Bush, I think Wisconcin and Hawaii will go for Kerry.  I do think Ohio is going to be the lynch pin.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:38:55 PM EDT
This sounds about right to me:


cwo.pre-ban.com/index.php?showtopic=20027
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:40:05 PM EDT
Hiramranger - the maps you propose would be those maps AFTER the various court cases are decided in those states where the votes were close.   When do you realistically believe that we will actually know who the winner is?
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 1:43:00 PM EDT
Bush needs 270! Anything above that is gravy!

AAAAHHHHH! I'm going !!!!!!!
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:31:52 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:36:02 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Zaphod:
Bush needs 270! Anything above that is gravy!

AAAAHHHHH! I'm going !!!!!!!



No, we need enough over 270 so that the Kerry campaign will realize that suing their way to the White House won't work.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:41:03 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:42:05 PM EDT
"Hallelujah! Holly Shit! Where's the Tylenol?"
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:42:39 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Zaphod:
Bush needs 270! Anything above that is gravy!

AAAAHHHHH! I'm going !!!!!!!


You are NOT alone !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:44:03 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Nimrod1193:

Originally Posted By Zaphod:
Bush needs 270! Anything above that is gravy!

AAAAHHHHH! I'm going !!!!!!!



No, we need enough over 270 so that the Kerry campaign will realize that suing their way to the White House won't work.



I think he will sue and sue and sue, no matter how many votes Bush gets.  Bush could win CA and Kerry would still sue.  The ultra left will stop at NOTHING.  We must be as ruthless.  Yesterday the Chiefs (RED) and the Colts (Blue) had a hell of a battle, but the Chiefs wanted it more, and despite a career day from Manning, the Chiefs won.  Same thing the Repulicans need to do.  Evenly matched teams, some might even say that the Dems have an advantage, but there is no reason we can't win, other than we didn't work hard enough.  
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:46:22 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:48:30 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:55:16 PM EDT
I remember HR's predictions in 2000.  It was closer than he called it, but he scored then and I pray he's right this time.

Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:58:18 PM EDT
I said it first, I still believe it. Bush will flip New Jersey.


P.S. Hiram, thanx for all the hard work keeping us up to speed.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 3:59:30 PM EDT
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:02:00 PM EDT

Originally Posted By raf:
Hiram, thank you very much for your time and effort for doing all these Electoral Updates.  Your skill and expertise in explaining a complex set of variables was, and is, impressive..  I also admired the way you dealt with your exasperation at some members posts.
I certainly hope you are right in your predictions!



+1 .

Way to handle a sometimes(?) touchy subject.

Thanks again!
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:04:18 PM EDT
bush > kerry
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:08:25 PM EDT
I'm hoping bush wins Iowa this time around.  He lost Iowa by 4040 last time.

The Dems have been vandalizing/stealing Bush signs,  The paper has made the town fully aware of this.



 
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:10:58 PM EDT
Bush will win! No doubt about it
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:18:47 PM EDT
300-238 is also what I predicted on Thursday

www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=288514


Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
My prediction:
President Bush- 50% popular vote,  300 electoral votes
john kerry-       48% popular vote,  238  electoral votes

Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:25:21 PM EDT
I have been going nuts all day.  My stress level is just about pegged.  I've been careful to take my BP and heart meds so as not to make Miz LWilde a rich widow.

Hey...FWIW, I heard today that Hawaii is actually in play!  Kerry leads by under one percentage point and one of the local pols thinks it may go Bush.  In fact...there are some scenarios that indicate that Hawaii may just be the critical tiebreaker.  Apparently the electorate has been slowly changing over the years as more and more military retirees settle there.  The Gov is a female Republican.  Amazing.  

HR,  You are to be commended.  You've been doing a great job keeping us all informed.  Try to get some sleep tonight and just trust in the American People.  IM me if you have access to a computer later tomorrow night and want updates.  I'm taking tomorrow off and will be available.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:26:55 PM EDT
HR, Thanks for all the work and analysis!  CR
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:32:14 PM EDT
this will be done the old fashioned way, one vote at a time, im voting here in ny even though it is a lost cause in ny. i would like to be surprised though.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 4:33:27 PM EDT

Originally Posted By LWilde:

Hey...FWIW, I heard today that Hawaii is actually in play!  Kerry leads by under one percentage point and one of the local pols thinks it may go Bush.  In fact...there are some scenarios that indicate that Hawaii may just be the critical tiebreaker.  Apparently the electorate has been slowly changing over the years as more and more military retirees settle there.  The Gov is a female Republican.  Amazing.  



Someone called into the Ron Smith show (Baltimore radio host) tonight and brought up Hawaii.  It seems as though the Gov and Lt. Gov, being Republican, are convincing a lot of the military personnel to register to vote in Hawaii rather than their home states, and are thus tapping into a mass of voters previously untouched.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 6:58:07 PM EDT
HiramRanger, thanks for all the updates and try to get some shut eye.  You will need it for the celebration tomorrow night!
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 7:30:34 PM EDT
HR, you are the man.  Thanks for all the info and good luck in whatever your job is tomorrow.
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 7:36:28 PM EDT
Sorry folks, but the dems have voter fraud in the bag... they are pulling out all the stops in terms of illegal activity...  


They have a real chance of winning, and it won't be by the rules


- BG
Link Posted: 11/1/2004 7:38:42 PM EDT

Originally Posted By BUCC_Guy:
Sorry folks, but the dems have voter fraud in the bag... they are pulling out all the stops in terms of illegal activity...  


They have a real chance of winning, and it won't be by the rules


- BG

and the Republicans have assembled teams across the country that are DETERMINED to stop fraud at the polls.  We will NOT take this laying down
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