Posted: 5/14/2010 9:43:59 PM EDT
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There are 500 total tickets.
There are 21 prizes total. What are my odds of winning with one ticket? |
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Quoted:
Yes each ticket has the chance to win each prize. So with two tickets we have an 8% chance of getting a gun ? Right on. No, in order to have an 8% chance of winning a prize you need to have 8% of the tickets. 2 tickets out of 500 represent a 0.4% chance of winning. On each subsequent pick there will be virtually the same number of tickets in the pool leaving your odds of winning virtually the same. Using your logic; - 20 tickets out of 500 would give you an 80% chance of winning; - 23 tickets out of 500 would guarantee a winning pick with a 104% chance of winning. - 25 tickets out of 500 would guarantee a winning pick with a 120% chance of winning. In reality, 25 tickets out of 500 gives you a 5.0% chance of winning. |
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Yes each ticket has the chance to win each prize. So with two tickets we have an 8% chance of getting a gun ? Right on. No, in order to have an 8% chance of winning a prize you need to have 8% of the tickets. 2 tickets out of 500 represent a 0.4% chance of winning. On each subsequent pick there will be virtually the same number of tickets in the pool leaving your odds of winning virtually the same. Using your logic; - 20 tickets out of 500 would give you an 80% chance of winning; - 23 tickets out of 500 would guarantee a winning pick with a 104% chance of winning. - 25 tickets out of 500 would guarantee a winning pick with a 120% chance of winning. In reality, 25 tickets out of 500 gives you a 5.0% chance of winning. There are 21 prizes, not 1... |
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Quoted: Buy every ticket. Then you are guaranteed to win. Inefficient. Buy 500-21 + 1 tickets and be guaranteed to win. Ie, if you buy all the losing tickets, the next ticket you buy must be a winning ticket.
the odds for a single draw are 21/500 = 0.042 or a little over 4%. |
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Generally when a ticket is drawn it is discarded.
1 ticket / 500 tickets = .002 or .2% chance of winning. Now if you have 2 tickets thats 2/500= .004 or .4% chance of winning. this is only for the first prize. the next round you will have a 1/499 or 2 out of 499 depending on the amount of tickets you buy. this would go on until you are at the last prize which would be 1/479 which very close to the original .2% chance of winning with one ticket. .2% is very small odds. |