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Posted: 9/19/2004 5:41:59 AM EDT
[#1]
How could NH have been for Kerry, and suddenly 9 points for Bush? I find it hard to believe a poll could jump that fast. That's millions of people changing their mind in a few days.
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Posted: 9/19/2004 5:43:54 AM EDT
[#2]
There are so many polls, HR do you feel this one to be realistic or close to the mark? |
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Posted: 9/19/2004 6:00:22 AM EDT
[#3]
None of this euphoria will stick, unless we all do the one thing that will..........
VOTE, and take someone like-minded along with you ! Republicans and other Bush supporters are notorious for skipping the vote process DO NOT Let that happen this time! It would be hell to pay. |
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Posted: 9/19/2004 6:04:51 AM EDT
[#4]
But I'm just . . . [counts on fingers] one man! What can I do? |
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Posted: 9/19/2004 6:07:25 AM EDT
[#5]
You mean to tell me that the PRNJ has Bush actually leading?
Satan get out your parka! I actually work in NJ, and commute about 30 miles each way through that state, mostly through residential neighborhoods. I noticed the other day how many Bush/Cheney 04 signs I see on front lawns. Granted, there are a fair share of Kerry signs as well...but I cant remember ever seeing so many republican lawn signs in NJ. Its nice to see the hippies finally growing up! |
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Posted: 9/19/2004 7:54:40 AM EDT
[#6]
What really scares me about these numbers is that many people may become complacent: "Oh I don't need to vote today, Bush has is sewed up." OTOH the dems will try to have an even larger turnout to counter the apparent easy win.
This could backfire real quick if any of us let down our guard and don't do our duty on Nov. 2. |
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Posted: 9/19/2004 8:09:04 AM EDT
[#7]
You know the saying: "when something seems too good to be true, it usually is"
What are these polls based on? I hope to God it's true, but I was born and raised in PRNJ, and I have a hard time believing that it will be going to Bush. I will be working on my NJ amily just the same. I don't know how my mom can call herself a Catholic, and still vote for Kerry. |
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Posted: 9/19/2004 9:33:00 AM EDT
[#8]
If the rating for CO is true, then the Californicators have been moving here even faster than I thought.
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Posted: 9/19/2004 9:43:37 AM EDT
[#9]
I am usually un-impressed by polls, especially since they can be spun to a particular view
i.e. yes but that is only for white, midget, likely, voters type thing. But this is from Gallop's web page
with a +/- 4% margin of error 
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Posted: 9/19/2004 10:03:06 AM EDT
[#10]
Oh, they certainly have been. But hold your courser over the state. A box will pop-up with the percentages. Kerry leads by only 1%. That has to be inside the margin of error. The state may still go to Bush, but it'll be a close one. |
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Posted: 9/19/2004 10:10:37 AM EDT
[#11]
The ratio of Bush/Cheney stickers to Kerry/Edwards stickers on vehicles here in Vegas is around 20 to 1.
There are only 2 signs in my whole neighborhood, they are both Bush/Cheney signs and I put them there. One in my neighbors yard and one in my yard. I put one in my mother's yard too but she lives in a different neighborhood. I have not seen ONE Kerry yard sign anywhere. As Cheney said at the rally I attended, Nevada is Bush/Cheney country!!!!!!!!!!!   Of course out of thousands of people attending the rally there were a few dissenters: 
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Posted: 9/19/2004 10:22:04 AM EDT
[#12]
I've really become attracted to the color red lately. I'd really enjoy seeing that map completely dark red.
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Posted: 9/19/2004 10:35:45 AM EDT
[#13]
Cook County, IL really should be broken off from the rest of the state.
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Posted: 9/19/2004 10:42:06 AM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 9/19/2004 10:48:36 AM EDT
[#15]
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Posted: 9/19/2004 10:53:39 AM EDT
[#16]
What people need to understand about www.electoral-vote.com is they do some of their own polling, but they also use many of the other state polls as they become available. Move your cursor over each state and it will tell you which group did the poll and from what dates. A poll can seem to switch quickly and drastically based upon which poll is being used to call that state. My impression on most of the major polling firms are:
Gallup - fairly reliable Pew - not very reliable, they showed a similar lead to Gallups and didn't like the numbers, so they changed the questions and did a second wave of polling... surprise surprise the new poll shows a neck and neck race Survey USA - relative new comer, they seem to be middle of the road in their projections Rassmussen Group - very conservative in their polling methodology... they have been low-balling Bush's performance, and only recently started showing some seperation in the race with an approximate 4 1/2 point Bush lead. My rule of thumb with Rassmussen numbers is add 4% to overcome their overly cautious nature. Harris - similar to Gallup, long reputation, pretty good track record. Zogby - we used to use him extensively in NY, and at one time he was among the best. He is now a complete whore who will sell his polling results to the highest bidder... Do a search on Google using "Golisano and Zogby" and prepare to be blown away! He is also an Arab with a decidely anti-Bush bias. My rule of thumb is when Zogby polls on Bush add about 3-4% to overcome Zogby's bias. A great site to see a lot of poll data is www.realclearpolitics.com |
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Posted: 9/19/2004 11:08:20 AM EDT
[#17]
BIG +1 on this. Zogby's numbers were pathetic in 2000. I have basically ignored them since. |
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Posted: 9/19/2004 11:09:05 AM EDT
[#18]
Well I'm glad to see we went from barely Bush to weak Bush.
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Posted: 9/19/2004 11:10:58 AM EDT
[#19]
Zogby has penned several op-eds bashing Bush in the Saud family-controlled Arab News |
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