Warning

 

Close

Confirm Action

Are you sure you wish to do this?

Confirm Cancel
Member Login

Site Notices
11/9/2018 9:21:38 PM
Posted: 3/12/2005 3:40:53 PM EST
From Drudge:

www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1522978,00.html

Revealed: Israel plans strike on Iranian nuclear plant
Uzi Mahnaimi



ISRAEL has drawn up secret plans for a combined air and ground attack on targets in Iran if diplomacy fails to halt the Iranian nuclear programme.
The inner cabinet of Ariel Sharon, the Israeli prime minister, gave “initial authorisation” for an attack at a private meeting last month on his ranch in the Negev desert.



Israeli forces have used a mock-up of Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment plant in the desert to practise destroying it. Their tactics include raids by Israel’s elite Shaldag (Kingfisher) commando unit and airstrikes by F-15 jets from 69 Squadron, using bunker-busting bombs to penetrate underground facilities.

The plans have been discussed with American officials who are said to have indicated provisionally that they would not stand in Israel’s way if all international efforts to halt Iranian nuclear projects failed.

Tehran claims that its programme is designed for peaceful purposes but Israeli and American intelligence officials — who have met to share information in recent weeks — are convinced that it is intended to produce nuclear weapons.

The Israeli government responded cautiously yesterday to an announcement by Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, that America would support Britain, France and Germany in offering economic incentives for Tehran to abandon its programme.

In return, the European countries promised to back Washington in referring Iran to the United Nations security council if the latest round of talks fails to secure agreement.

Silvan Shalom, the Israeli foreign minister, said he believed that diplomacy was the only way to deal with the issue. But he warned: “The idea that this tyranny of Iran will hold a nuclear bomb is a nightmare, not only for us but for the whole world.”

Dick Cheney, the American vice-president, emphasised on Friday that Iran would face “stronger action” if it failed to respond. But yesterday Iran rejected the initiative, which provides for entry to the World Trade Organisation and a supply of spare parts for airliners if it co-operates.

“No pressure, bribe or threat can make Iran give up its legitimate right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes,” said an Iranian spokesman.

US officials warned last week that a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israeli or American forces had not been ruled out should the issue become deadlocked at the United Nations.



Link Posted: 3/12/2005 3:43:32 PM EST
Osirak part II.

Link Posted: 3/12/2005 3:46:51 PM EST
Guess the Mullahs did not pay attention to what happened in Afghanistan or Iraq. They fought Iraq for 10 years and could not win.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 3:46:56 PM EST
Reading this again makes me wonder if information (or disinformation) could be leaked intentionally, resulting in this story.

Link Posted: 3/12/2005 3:47:26 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/12/2005 3:56:54 PM EST by DrFrige]
Bullshit. If Israel has it in their interest to do such damage... you wouldnt hear they are "Planning " to.... you would hear they "did it"
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 3:49:15 PM EST
Or, a leftist will be voted in as president here, in '08, and the Iranian government will then figure they can get away with anything...while our government trys to talk them to death. When Israel then asked America for permisson to hit Iran, Hillary will say..."no...we need to talk to them more."

Good thing is that Israel will probably go ahead and do it anyway.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 3:49:20 PM EST
You mean like Osirak in 1981?
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 3:49:39 PM EST
Works for me.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 3:51:34 PM EST
I think it would be a given that Isreal has some plans. It would be irresponsible not to. To pull off something like this takes a lot of pre-planning and coordination.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 4:13:37 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/12/2005 4:14:17 PM EST by toddlerp]
IMO... strikes within 12-16 months. Whether it's US or Israel is TBD. That is if the Iranians do not stop their BS by 1/1/06 or sooner. Yes, I pulled these dates out of my ass, but I feel it is a reasonable timeline, post 9/11 and recent global events.

Israel is known as one country that does not fu*K around once they say what they intend to do. And, they have already said, they will not stand for Iran possessing nuclear capabilities.

This little waterway will become very hot, very quick. I believe that if Israel strikes, the US will have no choice but to bolster the Israeli strike with our own Shock and Awe to keep the passage open. This little waterway carries an ever increasing anount of the world's oil.

Oil Lifeline

Link Posted: 3/12/2005 4:20:40 PM EST
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 4:29:15 PM EST
Iraq as a sovreign state may determine that striking the reactor is in their national interests.
Or afganistan
Or kazakstan
Hmmm
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 4:30:07 PM EST

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.



...on a scale hitherto unseen,
I fear.

Link Posted: 3/12/2005 4:39:18 PM EST
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 4:48:09 PM EST

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.



Didn't someone say something similar twice in the last 15 years or so? "Mother of all battles" or some such shit? Islam talks big, but its track record as to proposed victims who are armed and ready hasn't been all that hot the last 800 years or so.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 4:49:32 PM EST
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 4:51:27 PM EST
Nope. Kinda like that little Cuba thing a while back.


Originally Posted By XxSLASHERxX:
I'm not an alarmist, but, I see this as a plausible scenario in the near future. The Israeli's will not allow the Iranians nuclear capabilities. Do you blame them?

Link Posted: 3/12/2005 4:51:51 PM EST
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 5:00:23 PM EST
Will any other countries step into this if Israel goes ahead? What are the chances of escalation? Who will be on whose side? What role will Russia play in this? etc.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 5:02:28 PM EST

Originally Posted By FLAL1A:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.



Didn't someone say something similar twice in the last 15 years or so? "Mother of all battles" or some such shit? Islam talks big, but its track record as to proposed victims who are armed and ready hasn't been all that hot the last 800 years or so.


I agree 100%...BUT we are talking about offensive military action by the Jewish state of Israel against the Islamic state of Iran. I have no doubt the Israelis could handle most of the arab world, but it doesn't mean it will be pretty.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 5:11:57 PM EST


ISRAEL has drawn up secret plans



Not anymore!
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 5:12:52 PM EST
It's not good, but it beats the alternative.

So, just how realistic is an Israeli air strike of any size? Would the US allow air-to-air refueling over Iraq or interfere with overflights? Saudi overflights could run into the same problem. Getting slow, high RCS, undefended tankers into position would seem to be a problem. Maybe they can get one strike of limited size in, but I think they'd run into serious problems trying to maintain a sustained campaign. Ditto the problems for trying to infiltrate or exfiltrate commandos.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 5:26:24 PM EST
And, unlike Taiwan, there is NO doubt about the resolve of the US to defend Israel. We will let Israel take only so much.

Lets see, we virtually own 2 major countries in the ME, we support Israel, we hate the Iranians, we are the only superpower, Syria has been notified, and we have a kick ass President.

As I see it, it is all based on location, location, location. The retards have squandered it and it is time to have it managed by civilized societies.



Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By FLAL1A:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.



Didn't someone say something similar twice in the last 15 years or so? "Mother of all battles" or some such shit? Islam talks big, but its track record as to proposed victims who are armed and ready hasn't been all that hot the last 800 years or so.


I agree 100%...BUT we are talking about offensive military action by the Jewish state of Israel against the Islamic state of Iran. I have no doubt the Israelis could handle most of the arab world, but it doesn't mean it will be pretty.

Link Posted: 3/12/2005 5:26:36 PM EST
Israel now possesses subs with harpoon like cruise missle capability. six to ten launched from the Indian Ocean or Arabian Gulf would end that problem. So would one tipped with a nuke.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 5:28:04 PM EST
Can't wait for Israel to do it. I wanna see the local islamic population take a collective shit when israel opens up a big can of whupass.

<flounder>This is gonna be GREAT</flounder>
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 5:29:12 PM EST

Originally Posted By mcgredo:
It's not good, but it beats the alternative.

So, just how realistic is an Israeli air strike of any size? Would the US allow air-to-air refueling over Iraq or interfere with overflights? Saudi overflights could run into the same problem. Getting slow, high RCS, undefended tankers into position would seem to be a problem. Maybe they can get one strike of limited size in, but I think they'd run into serious problems trying to maintain a sustained campaign. Ditto the problems for trying to infiltrate or exfiltrate commandos.



I don't think anybody granted them overflights when they wiped out Iraq's nuke program 25 years ago. They just did it. My map suggests theycould overfly Syria most of the way, spending about 5 minutes (if that) over northern Iraq. I wouldn't bet on Iran succesfully controlling its own airspace against the IAF, in any event. The Israeli flyers wouldn't represent any threat to Iraq, so we'd have no obligation to do anything about an overflight, or even loitering to refuel.

We have (thank God) pretty much abandoned the pretense that flipping us off and ignoring what we say when we are insistent is an ongoing rite of passage for perpetually adolescent savage nations. The message that flipping off Uncle Sam is kinda dumb has been sent. We bomb Iran's nuke program directly or by proxy, what difference does it make? The point is the same: shitty little cabals of semiliterate goatfuckers can play games when we feel indulgent, not because we lack the power or will to do anything about it.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 5:54:36 PM EST

Originally Posted By DrFrige:
Bullshit. If Israel has it in their interest to do such damage... you wouldnt hear they are "Planning " to.... you would hear they "did it"



+1
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 6:20:01 PM EST
Osirak was much easier. It was (just) within the unrefueled action radius (with drop tanks) of Israeli fighter-bombers, and they only had to penetrate Saudi and then Iraqi airspace.

A strike on Tehran or other sites in Iraq would require at least one and more likely two refuels, and getting a big, slow tanker in position would be a problem. Sure, the Syrians have a low competence factor, but overtly penetrating Syian airspace would still presumably cause them to scramble, leading to a big fight over Syria as well. And if the tankers can't make the rendevous, you have to kiss the planes and pilots goodbye.
Link Posted: 3/12/2005 10:23:37 PM EST
[Last Edit: 3/12/2005 10:24:49 PM EST by Boom_Stick]

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.


What are they(Iran) gonna do? Any middle east army big enough to do damage could be wiped out by Israel alone.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 12:02:37 AM EST
Secret???

yeah, whatever
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 1:12:07 AM EST
"Boys will be boys"

-RWR
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 2:32:51 AM EST
A much harder strike than Osirak because the Iranians learned from Osirak. Not only does the operational reach or the Israelis have to be much farther, but the Iranians have buried these sites deeply underground. Facilities at these sites are also dispersed. To take out the sites, the weapons are going to have to have some serious penetration. It won't be easy, nor will a raid have a high probability of success.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 2:45:13 AM EST

Originally Posted By H46Driver:
A much harder strike than Osirak because the Iranians learned from Osirak. Not only does the operational reach or the Israelis have to be much farther, but the Iranians have buried these sites deeply underground. Facilities at these sites are also dispersed. To take out the sites, the weapons are going to have to have some serious penetration. It won't be easy, nor will a raid have a high probability of success.



big +1 on that,cant underestimate the Iranians ability to learn from the past,when we do we may end up getting our asses kicked.I dont think a single strike will do anything but piss them off,IMHO to really contain them about a month of GWI style bombing should do it.I think our going along with the eurotrash is a bid to buy more time to stablize Iraq and maybe build up an Iranian underground movement.If we can take Iran without a major war,that would be best all around.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 2:53:17 AM EST

Anyone know the delivery date
(generally) of those BLU-109
penetrators?

Link Posted: 3/13/2005 5:48:56 AM EST
I think the US should chip in on the gas.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 6:01:09 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.



I'm not so sure about that, arabs like to talk tough but they aren't very effective at anything more than street level violence. I think some are starting to get the message that we are tired of their shit.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 6:02:44 AM EST
Why not position a squadron of Isreali strike aircraft in one of the US bases in Iraq ?

Problem solved.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 6:02:55 AM EST

Originally Posted By TheCynic:
Anyone know the delivery date
(generally) of those BLU-109
penetrators?




Israel has them now…

ANdy
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 6:08:58 AM EST
[Last Edit: 3/13/2005 6:13:15 AM EST by vito113]
Isreal has the reach and the capability in it's F16-I & F15-I

"The 25 F-15Is operational since 1999 [and the 100 F-16Is] were procured first and foremost to deal with the Iranian threat. In August 2003 the Israeli Air Force demonstrated the strategic capability to strike far-off targets such as Iran [which is 1,300 kilometers away], by flying three F-15 jets to Poland 1,600 nautical miles away. After they celebrated that country's air force's 85th birthday, on their return trip, the IAF warplanes staged a fly-past over the Auschwitz death camp.
"


1,600 Miles is about 2,500 Kilometeres……

The attack route would almot certainly be across southern Jordan, (who would look the other way) and along the Iraq-Saudi border… the Saudis are useless fucks and are on their own now Air Defence wise. I seriously doubt that they would try and go up against a flight of F16's and F15's in case they accidentally took on a flight of USAF aircraft, This potential for confusion will play into Israels hands.



ANdy

www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/israel/f-15i.htm
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 6:19:52 AM EST

Originally Posted By Boom_Stick:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.


What are they(Iran) gonna do? Any middle east army big enough to do damage could be wiped out by Israel alone.

Shoot down a lot of Israeli planes. Incite the arab world against Israel. Cause upheavel in Iraq. Help radicals overthrow the govts. in Egypt, Saudi, Jordan......
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 6:29:48 AM EST

Originally Posted By DOW:

US officials warned last week that a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israeli or American forces had not been ruled out should the issue become deadlocked at the United Nations.





Translation: Knock it off or we are going to fuck you up real good!
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 6:34:06 AM EST

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By Boom_Stick:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.


What are they(Iran) gonna do? Any middle east army big enough to do damage could be wiped out by Israel alone.

Shoot down a lot of Israeli planes. Incite the arab world against Israel. Cause upheavel in Iraq. Help radicals overthrow the govts. in Egypt, Saudi, Jordan......



Get off the crack pipe.

What did the Arab Street do when we invaded Afganistan

Nothing.

What did they do when we invaded Iraq

Nothing,

What the Arab public is doing now is throwing the Syrians out of Lebanon and forcing real multi-party elections in Egypt.

A US or even Israeli attack on Iran, if sufficiently damaging to the Iranian armed forces besides the nuclear facilities, could cause the Revolution against the mullahs we have been waiting for.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 6:44:56 AM EST

Do you think that the recent
"reversal" of US policy on
negotiations with Iran has
anything to do with this?

I figure that the US is mending
fences with the Euros by
allowing them to dangle the
carrot, all the while knowing
that Israel has the stick ready.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 7:55:16 AM EST

Originally Posted By TheCynic:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.



...on a scale hitherto unseen,
I fear.




... Yeah well, if we don't suck it up and take care of business now, your kids and grandkids will have to do it later.

... What's it gonna be?
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 8:17:08 AM EST
This is a chess game with a very wary opponent.
Do you announce that you are sending in your queen?
I think our planners are smarter than that.

I remember alot of stunned reporters when we went straight into Iraq in GW1
I remember alot of stunned Iraq's when we started the ground invasion the same day as the air attacks in GW2.
If an attack happens, it will not be a commando raid, it will not be 3 F-15's, it won't be 6-7 sub missles, it will be devastating, multipronged and sustained until the threat is eliminated.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 8:23:47 AM EST
Iran and Syria signed a pact, right?

"The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from [being] a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap." - Isa 17:1
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 8:55:37 AM EST
The Bushehr nuclear facility is located near the straits of Hormuz, some 2000 KM from Israel. Global Security www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/facility.htm has a list of the fairly well-known nuclear sites. There are a lot of them, probably well protected. It would be damn hard for the Israelis to get them in one strike with, say, 20 strike aircraft operating from Israel, and it would be very hard for them to maintain a campaign. Their best-case objective would be to delay the program by a few months by taking out some high value targets.

I wonder if the Israelis are working on any combat RPV aircraft. Load a penetrating GPS guided weapon onto one of those and launch, maybe from a ship operating in the Indian Ocean.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 9:22:20 AM EST

Originally Posted By ArmdLbrl:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:

Originally Posted By Boom_Stick:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.


What are they(Iran) gonna do? Any middle east army big enough to do damage could be wiped out by Israel alone.

Shoot down a lot of Israeli planes. Incite the arab world against Israel. Cause upheavel in Iraq. Help radicals overthrow the govts. in Egypt, Saudi, Jordan......



Get off the crack pipe.
What did the Arab Street do when we invaded Afganistan
Nothing
What did they do when we invaded Iraq
Nothing,
What the Arab public is doing now is throwing the Syrians out of Lebanon and forcing real multi-party elections in Egypt.
A US or even Israeli attack on Iran, if sufficiently damaging to the Iranian armed forces besides the nuclear facilities, could cause the Revolution against the mullahs we have been waiting for.


I agree that if it is a American attack, the fallout among the arab world would be minimal. But imo, an Israeli attack would be a whole different ballgame.
Don't take this to mean i'm not for a pre-emptive attack by either of us, I would like to see it happen tom.
Link Posted: 3/13/2005 10:12:54 AM EST

Originally Posted By Winston_Wolf:

Originally Posted By TheCynic:

Originally Posted By -Absolut-:
If/When this happens, the shit will hit the fan in the Middle East.



...on a scale hitherto unseen,
I fear.




... Yeah well, if we don't suck it up and take care of business now, your kids and grandkids will have to do it later.



I never said that it does not
need to be done (and done soon).
My point is that the situation
will be bad for all involved.

Top Top