Killing of Hamas leader's sons won't torpedo deal, but could postpone it more

Palestinians, particularly those in Gaza, perceive the killing of three sons of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Hamas politburo, as an Israeli act of revenge and frustration, not an impressive military action that will shake Hamas deeply enough to throw it off balance.

Haniyeh's sons were not classified as operatives whose elimination would signal an in-depth intelligence penetration of Hamas – and the strike on them has only strengthened Haniyeh's status among the Hamas leadership and the Palestinian public.

As the devastation and killing in Gaza has escalated since the war started, the Hamas leaders who live outside Gaza, especially Haniyeh, have faced growing criticism among Palestinians and around the Arab world about their living in luxury in Qatar while the people of Gaza are left to contend with the Israeli destruction machine. There have been many complaints about how they made sure to get their relatives out of Gaza via the Rafah crossing at the start of the war.

Upon learning of the strike on his sons and grandchildren, Haniyeh was quick to describe it as a blessing for them making them martyrs, and proclaimed it proof that his children had not abandoned their people in Gaza. Hamas will likely continue to highlight the personal price paid by its political leader – who hasn't lived in Gaza since being appointed to his current position – to boost his image.

The timing of the killing will also be highlighted. It took place on the first day of the Eid al-Fitr holiday while, according to Hamas, the three were visiting family. Israel claims the three were on the way to carry out "terrorist activity," but the Palestinians, including those who oppose Hamas, won't believe that claim, especially since two of the sons had their children with them.

Despite the direct hit on Haniyeh's family, the operation won't necessarily impact the negotiations for a hostage deal between Hamas and Israel. If genuine progress is made on the issues in dispute and Israel shows more flexibility, or if a compromise that both sides can accept is reached, Haniyeh and his allies in the Hamas leadership won't be able to veto an agreement solely because of the strike on his sons.

Were he to torpedo a deal, he would have to explain why a cease-fire, the entry of humanitarian aid, and the return of displaced persons to their homes would take a back seat to the strike on his family – and why it would be given more weight than the 33,000 killed before them since the start of the war.

Haniyeh emphasized the message that his children were part of the Palestinian people and that Hamas is a popular movement – that any targeted killing, including of high-ranking Hamas officials, may be perceived in Israel as an intelligence and tactical achievement, but won't signify any strategic shift or make Hamas retreat from its demands in the negotiations.

It could, however, throw another wrench into the negotiations and compel the parties to spend further hours, days, and weeks in talks in which Hamas will demand guarantees that its leaders and their families won't targeted, both in Gaza and abroad. Israel is unlikely to agree to such a demand in the short term, so the deal will be delayed even further. Ultimately, then, while Haniyeh may have lost three sons, he will win more popular sympathy and support thanks to the Israeli operation. Israel may have achieved a bit of temporary revenge but distanced itself even more from its war goals – especially securing the release of the 133 hostages.

Iran Smuggles Arms to West Bank, Officials Say, to Foment Unrest With Israel

The covert operation, described by U.S., Iranian and Israeli officials, is heightening concerns that Iran is seeking to turn the West Bank into a flashpoint in its shadow war with Israel.

Iran is operating a clandestine smuggling route across the Middle East, employing intelligence operatives, militants and criminal gangs, to deliver weapons to Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, according to officials from the United States, Israel and Iran.

The goal, as described by three Iranian officials, is to foment unrest against Israel by flooding the enclave with as many weapons as it can.

The covert operation is now heightening concerns that Tehran is seeking to turn the West Bank into the next flashpoint in the long-simmering shadow war between Israel and Iran. That conflict has taken on new urgency this month, risking a broader conflict in the Middle East, as Iran vowed to retaliate for an Israeli strike on an embassy compound that killed seven Iranian armed forces commanders.

Many weapons smuggled to the West Bank largely travel along two paths from Iran through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel, the officials said. As the arms cross borders, the officials added, they change hands among a multinational cast that can include members of organized criminal gangs, extremist militants, soldiers and intelligence operatives. A key group in the operation, the Iranian officials and analysts said, are Bedouin smugglers who carry the weapons across the border from Jordan into Israel.

The New York Times interviewed senior security and government officials with knowledge of Iran’s effort to smuggle weapons to the West Bank, including three from Israel, three from Iran and three from the United States. The officials from all three countries requested anonymity to discuss covert operations for which they were not authorized to speak publicly.

“The Iranians wanted to flood the West Bank with weapons, and they were using criminal networks in Jordan, in the West Bank and in Israel, primarily Bedouin, to move and sell the products,” said Matthew Levitt, director of the counterterrorism program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a research organization, and the author of a study on the smuggling route.

The smuggling to the West Bank, analysts said, began about two years ago when Iran started using routes previously established to smuggle other contraband. It is unclear exactly how many weapons have made it to the territory in that time, though analysts say the majority are small arms.

In the months since the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack against Israel from Gaza, Israeli security forces have conducted a large-scale crackdown across the West Bank.

The Israeli military describes the raids as part of its counterterrorism effort against Hamas and other armed factions to root out weapons and militants. Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, including those accused of attacking Israelis, according to the United Nations, in one of the deadliest periods in decades.

Human rights groups say many Palestinians are being unfairly detained, particularly those held in Israeli prisons without a formal trial. They say that it is unclear how many of the detainees possess genuine militant links.

“These arrests include many who are being swept up for reasons that are not clear,” said Omar Shakir, the Israel and Palestine director at Human Rights Watch. “The Israeli government has a long track record of abusive detention, arbitrary arrests and detaining people for exercising their basic rights.”

For years, Iran’s leaders have declared the necessity of arming Palestinian fighters in the occupied West Bank. Iran has long supplied weapons for attacking Israel to militants elsewhere in the region, members of its so-called Axis of Resistance, including its two primary Palestinian allies in Gaza, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Both of those groups, which also operate in the West Bank, are designated terrorist organizations by the United States, the European Union, Israel and other countries.

A night street scene in Tehran, illuminated by green light. In the background is a large banner of a bearded man wearing a military uniform.
Iranians breaking their Ramadan fast on Wednesday in Tehran near a banner of Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was killed this month in an Israeli airstrike in Syria. Credit... Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
The Iranian officials said Tehran had not singled out a particular group for its largess, choosing instead to broadly inundate the territory with guns and ammunition.

Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an expert on Iran’s military, said Iran was focusing on the West Bank because it understood that access to Gaza would be curtailed for the foreseeable future.

“The West Bank really needs to be the next frontier that Iran will penetrate and proliferate weapons into, because if they are able to do that then the West Bank will become just as big a problem, if not bigger, as Gaza,” he said.

Fatah, the Palestinian faction that controls the Palestinian Authority and with it much of the West Bank, accused Iran last week of trying to “exploit” Palestinians for its own means by spreading chaos in the territory. In a statement, Fatah said it would not allow “our sacred cause and the blood of our people to be exploited” by Iran.

In a statement, Iran’s U.N. Mission did not comment on the smuggling operation, but emphasized what it said was the importance of Palestinians taking up arms against Israel.

“Iran’s assessment posits that the sole effective avenue for resisting the occupation by the Zionist regime is through armed resistance,” said Amir Saeid Iravani, the country’s U.N. ambassador. “Palestinian resistance forces possess the capability to manufacture and procure the necessary armaments for their cause.”

Even after Oct. 7, as Iran’s proxies have increasingly launched salvos from Lebanon and Yemen, Tehran and Jerusalem preferred to restrict much of their conflict to the shadows. But that covert war exploded into public view last week with the airstrike against an Iranian Embassy building in Syria.

Israeli warplanes on April 1 attacked a meeting of leaders from Iran’s armed forces and members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Damascus, the Iranian officials said. Among those killed was Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, 65, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps general in charge of Iran’s covert operations in Syria and Lebanon through which parts of the weapons smuggling trail wends, the Israeli, Iranian and American officials said.

That attack came on the heels of another Israeli airstrike. On March 26, Israeli forces struck a key node of the smuggling route in eastern Syria, according to the American and Iranian officials, and two of the Israeli officials.

The majority of the smuggled weapons, analysts said, are small arms like handguns and assault rifles. Iran is also smuggling advanced weapons, according to the American officials and Israeli officials. Those weapons, the Israeli officials said, include antitank missiles and rocket-propelled grenades, which fly fast and low to the ground, creating a challenge for Israel when defending civilian and military targets from close-range fire.

Israel’s domestic security agency, Shin Bet, said in a statement that it had recently seized advanced military equipment smuggled into the West Bank. The statement added that Shin Bet “takes very seriously involvement in activities directed by Iran and its affiliates and will continue to carry out active measures at all times to monitor and thwart any activity that endangers the security of the state of Israel.”

Working with its militant allies and established criminal networks, Iran is using two main routes to get weapons to the West Bank, the Israeli, Iranian and American officials said.

Along one route, Iran-backed militants and Iranian operatives carry the weapons from Syria to Jordan, the officials said. From there, the Iranian officials added, they are transferred at the border to Bedouin smugglers. The nomads take the weapons to the border with Israel, where they are picked up by criminal gangs who then move them to the West Bank.

The Iranian effort taps a well-established smuggling route in Jordan, which shares a porous 300-mile border with Israel. Last year, a Jordanian lawmaker was indicted in Amman, Jordan, after being caught in 2022 trying to smuggle more than 200 weapons into the West Bank. The source of the weapons is unclear.

One of the Iranian officials said increased security since Oct. 7, by both Israel and Jordan, has raised the risk of getting caught, especially for Bedouins and Arab-Israelis who play critical roles for their ability to cross borders.

A second, more challenging route skips Jordan and takes the weapons from Syria to Lebanon, two of the U.S. officials said. From there, many of the weapons are smuggled into Israel, where criminal gangs pick them up and move them to the West Bank.

The route through Lebanon, Mr. Levitt said, is more difficult, particularly since the war in Gaza started, because the border on which Hezbollah operates is more heavily patrolled by both the Israeli military and U.N. peacekeepers.

Much of the work coordinating the smuggling route is done by Iranian operatives from the Quds Force, the Revolutionary Guards’ external intelligence agency, according to two of the Iranian officials who are affiliated with the Guards.

In addition to killing General Zahedi, the Israeli strike against the Iranian Embassy building in Damascus last week killed two other Quds Force generals and four other officers, Iran said, making it one of the deadliest attacks of the shadow war.

The American officials and two of the Israeli officials said a series of strikes in Syria a week earlier were aimed at two Iranian intelligence divisions involved in the smuggling. One unit, known as Division 4000, is overseen directly by the Revolutionary Guards. The other, Division 18840, is operated by the Quds Force.

Days before the Israeli strike on the embassy building in Damascus, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gave his personal seal of approval to the Palestinian militants who receive many of Iran’s weapons. In Tehran, he met with the leaders of two armed groups: Ziyad al-Nakhalah of Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas.

Ayatollah Khamenei, who years ago publicly issued an order to arm the West Bank, told both leaders, according to the state media, that Iran would not hesitate to support Palestinians and their cause.

“It would not have been easy for the Palestinian people to withstand this battle had it not been for Iran’s continuous and consistent support at all political, military and security levels,” Mr. al-Nakhalah said in a speech in Tehran.