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Posted: 11/5/2009 3:08:33 PM EST
I was told this by secondhand, and it came from a tinfoil wearing official if there was an ARFCOM equivalent of a econogeek type.

He did say the second week of October was going to be big. So is there anything coming out tomorrow that would cause weekend dumping.

Not that I care, we have around 7500 invested in roller coaster type of stuff. Just curious if we should move into commodities for the weekend.
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:12:26 PM EST
Dow went higher today because of "Optimistic outlook concerning less people filing for unemployment last week".

However, that is a purely bullshit basis, because the unemployment ratings for October will be released TOMORROW...and they will NOT be good.

450,000 to 550,000 last I heard...

We'll find out tomorrow for sure.

Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:14:41 PM EST
Market has been squirrelly lately, not for the faint hearted.
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:18:46 PM EST
Originally Posted By Schadenfreuda:
Dow went higher today because of "Optimistic outlook concerning less people filing for unemployment last week".

However, that is a purely bullshit basis, because the unemployment ratings for October will be released TOMORROW...and they will NOT be good.

450,000 to 550,000 last I heard...

We'll find out tomorrow for sure.



And that silly cunt pelosi plans to shove through the socialized medicine bill the next day.

Well, after the "BIG DEMOCRATIC WINS" Tuesday she is so happy about, who could blame her?

Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:23:12 PM EST
Originally Posted By Schadenfreuda:
Dow went higher today because of "Optimistic outlook concerning less people filing for unemployment last week".

However, that is a purely bullshit basis, because the unemployment ratings for October will be released TOMORROW...and they will NOT be good.

450,000 to 550,000 last I heard...

We'll find out tomorrow for sure.



Yeah, look out. That guy talking to you and this event seem like a huge coincidence, and I don't believe in coincidences.


That being said, maybe seeking professional advice would be the best, because it's possible that this weekend may be worse than Y2K.
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:25:07 PM EST
the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

but the stock market, as a long-term trend, is always going up. ignore your friend.
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:26:13 PM EST

Originally Posted By Schadenfreuda:
Dow went higher today because of "Optimistic outlook concerning less people filing for unemployment last week".

However, that is a purely bullshit basis, because the unemployment ratings for October will be released TOMORROW...and they will NOT be good.

450,000 to 550,000 last I heard...

We'll find out tomorrow for sure.



But...but....How many jobs did Obama SAVE?
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:27:14 PM EST
Originally Posted By agillig:

Originally Posted By Schadenfreuda:
Dow went higher today because of "Optimistic outlook concerning less people filing for unemployment last week".

However, that is a purely bullshit basis, because the unemployment ratings for October will be released TOMORROW...and they will NOT be good.

450,000 to 550,000 last I heard...

We'll find out tomorrow for sure.



But...but....How many jobs did Obama SAVE?


His, for the moment.

Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:28:17 PM EST

Originally Posted By bigmoney327:
the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

but the stock market, as a long-term trend, is always going up. ignore your friend.

Amen. As I've said many times. I don't give a fuck what it does in a day, or a week, or a year. I only care what it does in a decade. Dollar cost averaging, diversification, and long term investing strategy FTW. I'm not a speculator, Vegas was built on them.
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:28:22 PM EST
Originally Posted By agillig:

Originally Posted By Schadenfreuda:
Dow went higher today because of "Optimistic outlook concerning less people filing for unemployment last week".

However, that is a purely bullshit basis, because the unemployment ratings for October will be released TOMORROW...and they will NOT be good.

450,000 to 550,000 last I heard...

We'll find out tomorrow for sure.



But...but....How many jobs did Obama SAVE?


Oh you slay me! lol
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:30:43 PM EST
LOL, did he tell you this in Oct 2007? If not, you're a little late off the boat.

Still, I dread to see what happens 1st quarter 2010, after the holidays help float the optimistic 10k DJIA average just a little while longer.
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:31:43 PM EST
There is no way anyone can legitimately give you this advice. Only you know what your tolerance for risk is. I will say I would never EVER listen to advice like this unless the guy has an accuracy track history of 90% or better and is as rich as Bill Gates.

I wouldn't put credibility in to someone unless I knew they were amazingly accurate.
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:33:02 PM EST
Originally Posted By bigmoney327:
the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

but the stock market, as a long-term trend, is always going up. ignore your friend.


Past performance is no indicaton of future returns...

INFLATION (actual definition is an increase of the money supply and credit, prices are a result of inflation, not inflation itself) Does anyone deny that has happened in the last year?

Jobs continue to be lost...

Companies TO BIG TO FAIL are now owned by the guberment.

Gold is up from 645 to 1090 in 10 months and 275 to 1090 in 9 years, a sure sign of degrading of the dollar.

Does it feel like a bull run your about to miss out on?

Get out of dollars and dollar denominated assets, because the g20 has come out and reported that the dollar will be replaced as the World Reserve Currency...

Anyone telling you or saying to stay in doesnt know what they are talking about...





Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:33:11 PM EST
Damn good thing its November...
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:34:03 PM EST
Originally Posted By bigmoney327:
the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

but the stock market, as a long-term trend, is always going up. ignore your friend.


THIS is b/c of inflation––with all the stimulus and injections, we should have a DOW in the neighborhood of 20,000.
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:44:18 PM EST

Originally Posted By bigmoney327:
the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

but the stock market, as a long-term trend, is always going up. ignore your friend.

Yeah well, let's say an astute long term investor noted the huge popularity of the beautiful 1968 Camaro in 1968 and purchased GM shares in anticipation of a bright future for GM. 41 years later where would he be today hmm?



Link Posted: 11/5/2009 3:54:09 PM EST

Originally Posted By gomulego:

Originally Posted By bigmoney327:
the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

but the stock market, as a long-term trend, is always going up. ignore your friend.

Yeah well, let's say an astute long term investor noted the huge popularity of the beautiful 1968 Camaro in 1968 and purchased GM shares in anticipation of a bright future for GM. 41 years later where would he be today hmm?

Well the astute investor isn't going to have a large portion of their portfolio in individual stocks. In addition as the astute long term investor nears retirement age, they will move their assets to lower risk items such as bonds. By the time the astute 1968 investor cashed out of the stock 10 years ago, they would have made a hell of a nice return, including dividends, which your chart doesn't show. It also doesn't show stock splits or other methods by which they would have cleaned up over the decades. Besides, if they are sufficiently diversified and one stock took a giant shit, the others would more than make up for it.

Link Posted: 11/5/2009 4:35:32 PM EST

Originally Posted By Chairborne:

Originally Posted By gomulego:

Originally Posted By bigmoney327:
the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

but the stock market, as a long-term trend, is always going up. ignore your friend.

Yeah well, let's say an astute long term investor noted the huge popularity of the beautiful 1968 Camaro in 1968 and purchased GM shares in anticipation of a bright future for GM. 41 years later where would he be today hmm?

Well the astute investor isn't going to have a large portion of their portfolio in individual stocks. In addition as the astute long term investor nears retirement age, they will move their assets to lower risk items such as bonds. By the time the astute 1968 investor cashed out of the stock 10 years ago, they would have made a hell of a nice return, including dividends, which your chart doesn't show. It also doesn't show stock splits or other methods by which they would have cleaned up over the decades. Besides, if they are sufficiently diversified and one stock took a giant shit, the others would more than make up for it.


You are correct that it doesn't show dividends or splits, but it also doesn't exhibit capital gains taxes or inflation adjustments. Also, yes this is just one stock, but one that would have been probably a big one in most portfolios. Certainly a big component of the DJIA. So if you use that as an index over the same time period (roughly) with all these factors adjusted in, you be looking at a nominal gain of around 2% give or take. Not worth the headaches if you ask me.

You also say the astute investor would have cashed out 10 years ago (at the top), but why? Sounds to me like you are talking about a market timer (a rare one at that) and not a buy and hold, always goes up, thinking type of investor.
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 4:38:39 PM EST
Originally Posted By gomulego:

Originally Posted By bigmoney327:
the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

the stock market goes up...

the stock market goes down...

but the stock market, as a long-term trend, is always going up. ignore your friend.

Yeah well, let's say an astute long term investor noted the huge popularity of the beautiful 1968 Camaro in 1968 and purchased GM shares in anticipation of a bright future for GM. 41 years later where would he be today hmm?



Then he should've invested in the cars themselves and bought a boatload of em.

He'd be golden.
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 4:41:13 PM EST
Diversification is your friend
Link Posted: 11/5/2009 4:42:46 PM EST

Originally Posted By gomulego:


You also say the astute investor would have cashed out 10 years ago (at the top), but why? Sounds to me like you are talking about a market timer (a rare one at that) and not a buy and hold, always goes up, thinking type of investor.

Absolutely not. I'm talking about the average squared away investor. If you started investing in 1968, then by 1998 you've had 30 years in the market and are getting close to retirement age. Assuming you were 18 when you started (yeah, right!) you'd be 48, and had better be looking towards retiring in the next 10-20 years at the latest. In that case you'd have moved at least 60-70% of your investments to more conservative risks by that point. That's why I say you'd have gotten out of that stock by then, not because you're "timing the market". If the market takes a crap at the time you are looking to make major moves to more conservative investments you'll just have to wait a few more years to retire. That's the price of not properly timing your investment strategy. My Dad has a shitload of cash invested. Most of it was in stocks a few years ago, but he made the smart move to put nearly 100% of it in bonds a couple of years ago. He's retiring next year, with more income than he makes now while he's working.
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