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Posted: 1/22/2008 8:41:37 AM EST
www.militarytimes.com/news/2008/01/airforce_china_strategy_080121/


Hypothetical attack on U.S. outlined by China

By Patrick Winn - Staff writer
Posted : Tuesday Jan 22, 2008 6:58:01 EST

In a hypothetical future scenario, the U.S. and China are poised to clash — likely over Taiwan.

The democratic Republic of China, commonly called Taiwan — which America backs and the communist People’s Republic of China considers part of its territory — frequently irritates Chinese leaders with calls for greater independence from the mainland. But while the American military mulls its options, Chinese missiles hit runways, fuel lines, barracks and supply depots at U.S. Air Force bases in Japan and South Korea. Long-range warheads destroy American satellites, crippling Air Force surveillance and communication networks. A nuclear fireball erupts high above the Pacific Ocean, ionizing the atmosphere and scrambling radars and radio feeds.

This is China’s anti-U.S. sucker punch strategy.

It’s designed to strike America’s military suddenly, stunning and stalling the Air Force more than any other service. In a script written by Chinese military officers and defense analysts, a bruised U.S. military, beholden to a sheepish American public, puts up a small fight before slinking off to avoid full-on war.

This strategic outlook isn’t hidden in secret Chinese documents. It’s printed in China’s military journals and textbooks. And for much of last year, Mandarin literates and defense experts — working for the Santa Monica, Calif.-based Rand Corp. on an Air Force contract — combed through a range of Chinese military sources.

They emerged with “Entering the Dragon’s Lair,” a lengthy report on how the Chinese People’s Liberation Army would likely confront the U.S. military and how the Air Force in particular can brace itself. In many cases, the theoretical enemy nation China’s officers discuss in these scenarios isn’t explicitly named but is unmistakably the U.S.

“These aren’t war plans,” said report co-author Roger Cliff, a former Defense Department strategist and China military specialist who spoke to Air Force Times from Taiwan. “This is the military talking to itself. It’s not designed for foreigners or even China’s general public to read.”

Element of surprise
When it comes to conflict with the U.S., Chinese military analysts favor age-old schoolyard wisdom: Throw the first punch and hit hard.

“Future conflicts are likely to be short, intense affairs that might consist of a single campaign,” Cliff said. “They’re thinking about ways to get the drop on us. Most of our force is not forward-deployed.”

China’s experts concede its army would lose a head-on fight, with one senior colonel comparing such a scenario to “throwing an egg against a rock.” Instead, the Chinese would attempt what Rand calls an “anti-access” strategy: slowing the deployment of U.S. forces to the Pacific theater, damaging operations within the region and forcing the U.S. to fight from a distance.

“Taking the enemy by surprise,” one Chinese military expert wrote, “would catch it unprepared and cause confusion within and huge psychological pressure on the enemy and help [China] win relatively large victories at relatively small costs.” Another military volume suggests feigning a large-scale military training exercise to conceal the attack’s buildup.

The Dragon’s Lair
Striking U.S. air bases — specifically command-and-control facilities, aircraft hangars and surface-to-air missile launchers — would be China’s first priority if a conflict arose, according to Rand’s report.

U.S. facilities in South Korea and Japan, even far-south Okinawa, sit within what Rand calls the “Dragon’s Lair”: a swath of land and sea along China’s coast. This is an area reachable by cruise missiles, jet-borne precision bombs and local covert operatives. Air Force bases within this area include Osan and Kunsan in South Korea, as well as Misawa, Yokota and Kadena in Japan. And in a conflict over Taiwan, any nation allowing “an intervening superpower” such as the U.S. to operate inside its territory can expect a Chinese attack, according to China’s defense experts.

China is designing ground-launched cruise missiles capable of nailing targets more than 900 miles away — well within striking range of South Korea and much of Japan, according to the report. Cruise missiles able to reach Okinawa — home to Kadena Air Base — are in development.

The Chinese would first launch “concentrated and unexpected” attacks on tarmacs using runway-penetrating missiles and, soon after, would target U.S. aircraft. Saboteurs would play a role in reconnaissance, harassing operations and even “assassinating key personnel,” according to another military expert.

Chinese fighter jets would scramble to intercept aerial refueling tankers and cargo planes sent to shuttle in fuel, munitions, supplies or troops. High-explosive cluster bombs would target pilot quarters and other personnel buildings.

Because the American public is “abnormally sensitive” about military casualties, according to an article in China’s Liberation Army Daily, killing U.S. airmen or other personnel would spark a “domestic anti-war cry” on the home front and possibly force early withdrawal of U.S. forces. (“The U.S. experience in Somalia is usually cited in support of this assertion,” according to the Rand report.) Once this hard-and-fast assault on U.S. bases commenced, the Chinese army would “swiftly divert” its forces and “guard vigilantly against enemy retaliation,” according to a Chinese expert.

Dumb and blind The PLA also would likely use less conventional attacks on the American military’s vital communications network. The goal, as one Chinese expert put it: leaving U.S. combat capabilities “blind,” “deaf” and “paralyzed.”

Losing early-warning systems designed to detect incoming missiles would be, for the Air Force, the most devastating setback — one that could force the service to exit the region altogether, according to Rand.

China could also launch a nuclear “e-bomb,” or electromagnetic explosive, that would fry U.S. communication equipment while ionizing the atmosphere for minutes to hours, according to the report. This would likely jam radio signals in a 900-mile diameter beneath the nuclear fireball.

The PLA could also employ long-range anti-satellite missiles — similar to one successfully tested last January — to destroy one or more American satellites. However, the PLA has a host of less dramatic options: short-range jammers hidden in suitcases or bombs and virus attacks on Air Force computer networks.

U.S. Air Force options
Shielding against a swift Chinese onslaught is, according to Rand, as simple as reinforcing a runway or as complex as cloaking the orbit of military satellites.

In the short term, U.S. air bases inside the Dragon’s Lair should add an extra layer of concrete to their runways and bury fuel tanks underground. All aircraft, the report said, should be parked in hardened shelters, especially fighter jets.

Parking larger aircraft — bombers, tankers and E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control Systems jets — in hard-shell hangars would be expensive and difficult but likely worth the cost, according to the report.

U.S. fighter jets remain the best defense against incoming Chinese missile attacks. But, given China’s taste for sudden attacks, surface-launched missile defense systems must be installed long before a conflict roils. Because the PLA is expected to strike quickly, the report said, waiting for the first tremors of conflict is not an option.

The Air Force also should fortify itself against Chinese hackers by using software encryption, isolating critical computer systems and preparing contingency plans to communicate without a high-bandwidth network. Though China maintains a “no first use” nuclear bomb policy, the U.S., according to Rand, should warn China that nuclear electromagnetic pulse attacks will be considered acts of nuclear aggression and could prompt nuclear retaliation.

Rand insists the Air Force must defend satellites — which support communication, reconnaissance, bomb guidance and more — against China’s proven satellite-killing missiles. This could be accomplished in the Cold War tradition of mutually assured destruction by threatening to retaliate in kind if the PLA blasts U.S. satellites.

“That might be the one restraining factor,” Cliff said. “They might not want to start that space war.”

Or, Rand suggests, the U.S. could invest heavily in satellite protection or evasion techniques, including stealth, blending in with other satellite constellations or perhaps developing and deploying microsatellites capable of swarming to defend larger satellites, which the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is working toward.

Could this really happen? The Chinese first-strike strategy is “more than hypothetical,” according to the report. But in the near term, at least, it’s considered unlikely.

If the most contentious issue is Taiwan, Cliff said, then the likely trigger would be Taiwanese elections, where assertions of complete independence from the mainland can infuriate Chinese leaders. China’s current president, Hu Jintao, has built up China’s military but also its ties with America. In 2012, however, when Taiwan holds an election and mainland China’s leadership is expected to turn over, perhaps for the worse, the risk of conflict could increase.

“It really depends on the circumstances,” Cliff said. “Would Taiwan be the provocateur? If so, it might be hard for the American public to support intervention.”

However, if China moves to capture control of the island, Cliff said he believes the U.S. would face a rocky dilemma.

“Are we really going to let a small, democratic country get snuffed out by a huge authoritarian country — especially when you think about how our own country came into existence?” Cliff said.

As China pours more resources into its evolving and expanding military, it buys the power to more strongly assert itself against America. In November, China denied U.S. Navy minesweepers shelter from a storm and, in another incident that month, turned down an Air Force C-17 flight shuttling supplies to the American consulate in Hong Kong. Experts speculate this was a rebuff to American arms sales to Taiwan, as well as President Bush’s autumn meeting with the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of another state China claims, Tibet.

“If this conflict happened today, I’m certain we’d prevail,” Cliff said. “But as time goes on, that’s not a given.”

Very interesting article.

Comments?



-K
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:46:05 AM EST
height=8
Originally Posted By Special-K:

Comments?
-K


Yeah. This:

height=8
Originally Posted By Special-K:
It’s designed to strike America’s military suddenly, stunning and stalling the Air Force more than any other service. In a script written by Chinese military officers and defense analysts, a bruised U.S. military, beholden to a sheepish American public, puts up a small fight before slinking off to avoid full-on war.


Is a really, really stupid strategy. We Americans still love a good fight.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:46:12 AM EST
The ChiComs have repeatedly stated that we are their enemies, and their generals keep commenting on starting a nuclear war with us. They are clearly arming for a direct military confrontation with us (updating their ground forces, updating their navy, etc.) and equipping for an invasion of Taiwan and whatever else they think they can grab and keep. They probably want to pull what Japan tried to pull in WWII: cripple Americas ability to respond effectively, conquer a bunch of shit as quickly as possible, then when the US is back on its feet and pissed off, offer insincere apologies and hand back whatever they conquered and didn't want while keeping the rest.

It didn't work then, and it won't work now. That said, we're going to war with China in thirty years, assuming we don't have a civil war to distract us before then.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:49:00 AM EST

Originally Posted By TX_Hillbilly:

Originally Posted By Special-K:

Comments?
-K


Yeah. This:


Originally Posted By Special-K:
It’s designed to strike America’s military suddenly, stunning and stalling the Air Force more than any other service. In a script written by Chinese military officers and defense analysts, a bruised U.S. military, beholden to a sheepish American public, puts up a small fight before slinking off to avoid full-on war.


Is a really, really stupid strategy. We Americans still love a good fight.


+1 I think the Japanese tried that once. Didn't go over too well.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:49:55 AM EST

Originally Posted By TX_Hillbilly:

Originally Posted By Special-K:

Comments?
-K


Yeah. This:


Originally Posted By Special-K:
It’s designed to strike America’s military suddenly, stunning and stalling the Air Force more than any other service. In a script written by Chinese military officers and defense analysts, a bruised U.S. military, beholden to a sheepish American public, puts up a small fight before slinking off to avoid full-on war.


Is a really, really stupid strategy. We Americans still love a good fight.


More importantly, we love a quick victory. Extended campaigns of occupation last longer than the American attention span and make people irritable. We don't need (nor would it be possible to) to occupy China if a full-blown war erupts between us. We just need to carpet bomb their asses back into the stone age and let their huge population and newly destroyed infrastructure bring everything crashing down on them. Obliterate China's military and wipe out a lot of their industry so they can't rebuild that military, and the already growing discontent among China's ridiculously huge population is going to end up with another revolution and a whole lotta assholes in big hats (what is it with communists and giant hats, anyway?) are going to be swinging from lamp posts before it's over.

Tienemen Square would be avenged at last.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:50:00 AM EST
why don't they spend more time trying to flood our economy with cheap shit....it seems to work better.

and increase the msg level in their foods....we'll all get high-blood pressure and cancer.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:52:40 AM EST
Great.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:52:56 AM EST
Very interesting.

I am concerned about this since they have definetly put a lot of thought and have been very realistic with what they can and cannot do.

Unfortunately for us we lack any public support for military operations for war. They actually went so far as to point that out. The truth hurts.

If we shrink down our military again as we had in the past this will only make the problem worse. When Clinton was in office the draw down hurt us big time. If we have another Clinton or Democrat in Office prepare for another draw down.

Money for the socialist programs such as universal health care and other programs will have to come from somewhere and better believe it will come from the DOD.

max
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:53:54 AM EST

Originally Posted By david_g17:

Originally Posted By TX_Hillbilly:

Originally Posted By Special-K:

Comments?
-K


Yeah. This:


Originally Posted By Special-K:
It’s designed to strike America’s military suddenly, stunning and stalling the Air Force more than any other service. In a script written by Chinese military officers and defense analysts, a bruised U.S. military, beholden to a sheepish American public, puts up a small fight before slinking off to avoid full-on war.


Is a really, really stupid strategy. We Americans still love a good fight.


+1 I think the Japanese tried that once. Didn't go over too well.

Exactly what I was going to say.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:54:49 AM EST

I think they will wait till we get weak. Something like a severe recession or democrat getting elected. Then they will stage some incident to test us. If we appear weak then they will make a grab for something. China will probably smuggle in agents into Taiwan
to carry out sabotage. Then they can claim Taiwan is somehow having a civil war. They don't need to put on much of a show at all the media will make it sound true no matter how little the evidence is. Then America can sit on the sidelines as Taiwan gets crushed. If that happens then a whole bunch of our allies would think they are on their own against any opponent. Say hello to anti-Americanism like you never seen. There would be nationalization of American properties overseas. Many treaties torn up. China would be the superpower. Then America would find itself in more wars.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:55:13 AM EST
And besides, they may be able to screw over USAF aircraft, but the parts of the USAF that exist underground will turn a few keys and press a few buttons...
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:57:11 AM EST
Can you imagine the shitstorm if China tried to invade the US? I think you would even find DU supporters picking up rifles.

Communism is a fun idea for liberals to toy around with, but when it actually comes down to be subjected, they are of a different opinion.

"What do you mean I can't have a political blog slamming the government?"
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 8:59:46 AM EST
I'm sure they have a mountain of strategies on how to take us on.

Not that those plans will do them any good whatsoever
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:01:57 AM EST

Because the American public is “abnormally sensitive” about military casualties, according to an article in China’s Liberation Army Daily, killing U.S. airmen or other personnel would spark a “domestic anti-war cry” on the home front and possibly force early withdrawal of U.S. forces.


This is where they're wrong.

We're "abnormally sensitive" because A) we assign a very high value to human life, and B) because we don't see much point in sending our soldiers to far-away countries to fight people who cannot hurt us. That does not include a world superpower attacking us. We would become as united as we were after Pearl Harbor.

I'm not sure if they have decided that we really have changed too much from the Americans of 60 years ago, or if they believe that they could quickly consolidate their victories and make a counterattack look as fruitless as possible. If they sucker-punched us, too Taiwan and maybe a few other islands very quickly, then went into a defensive posture, it's possible we might be forced to accept that.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:04:32 AM EST
Don't we have "hypothetical" plans to attack pretty much every nation on earth?

Not that we ever plan on doing it, but we have people whose job it is to make sure we're prepared for any and all possibilities.

I imagine the Chinese are no different. Same as the Russians.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:05:21 AM EST


Because the American public is “abnormally sensitive” about military casualties, according to an article in China’s Liberation Army Daily, killing U.S. airmen or other personnel would spark a “domestic anti-war cry” on the home front and possibly force early withdrawal of U.S. forces. (“The U.S. experience in Somalia is usually cited in support of this assertion,” according to the Rand report.)


9/11 or Pearl Harbor would be better analogies than Somalia. Heavy American casualties - in a sneak attack, no less - would result in an immediate, near-unanimous demand for Chinese blood. It would be like WWII all over again.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:06:34 AM EST
I agree that it won't happen while we are strong, but rather when we are weak. THis is classic Sun-Tsu. However, IMHO, right now we ARE weak. A decent chunk of our military is already tied down, public support is at rather low levers, and we're about to elect another Democrat to the President - combined with an already Democratic Congress.

While we might still be strong militarily in spite of current drains, politically we are very weak and will soon get weaker.



-K
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:07:34 AM EST
The right time would be when a Democrat is in the white house.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:08:03 AM EST
Chinas Secret Weapon against the USA





All your $$$ are belong us.


http://www.wal-martchina.com/english/walmart/wminchina.htm
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:09:07 AM EST

Originally Posted By 103:
And besides, they may be able to screw over USAF aircraft, but the parts of the USAF that exist underground will turn a few keys and press a few buttons...


Delivered in 30 minutes or the next one is free!
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:09:20 AM EST

Originally Posted By Swindle1984:

Originally Posted By TX_Hillbilly:

Originally Posted By Special-K:

Comments?
-K


Yeah. This:


Originally Posted By Special-K:
It’s designed to strike America’s military suddenly, stunning and stalling the Air Force more than any other service. In a script written by Chinese military officers and defense analysts, a bruised U.S. military, beholden to a sheepish American public, puts up a small fight before slinking off to avoid full-on war.


Is a really, really stupid strategy. We Americans still love a good fight.


More importantly, we love a quick victory. Extended campaigns of occupation last longer than the American attention span and make people irritable. We don't need (nor would it be possible to) to occupy China if a full-blown war erupts between us. We just need to carpet bomb their asses back into the stone age and let their huge population and newly destroyed infrastructure bring everything crashing down on them. Obliterate China's military and wipe out a lot of their industry so they can't rebuild that military, and the already growing discontent among China's ridiculously huge population is going to end up with another revolution and a whole lotta assholes in big hats (what is it with communists and giant hats, anyway?) are going to be swinging from lamp posts before it's over.

Tienemen Square would be avenged at last.


+1
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:09:43 AM EST
[Last Edit: 1/22/2008 9:12:21 AM EST by Bobby_the_Hun]
When was the last time China fought a " Real War " ?


The minute the Chinese infantry see and hear the Warthog unleash it's fury, they'll turn tail
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:09:58 AM EST
Does anyone here believe we don't have the SAME type of documents prepared for a What If scenario? That we don't have a plan already set to deliver a tactical package?

It should be no surprise that China has this. While we may be the best at waging war, they have been doing so for thousands of years longer than we have.


peace,


Dean
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:11:00 AM EST
Whatever we do though, we have to make sure that free trade with the communist Chinese remains unencumbered. That's the important thing!
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:12:58 AM EST
[Last Edit: 1/22/2008 9:19:11 AM EST by JIMBEAM]
Step Two.


US launches retaliatory strike against Chinese military installations (airfields, ports, ICBM sites, that nice new dam) and population centers using US based ICBMs and if possible sub based missiles..


I don't care if we are blind their major ports and industrial areas won't moving. Without home ports their navy will be fucked. Their satellites would soon follow ours and they may have to contend with Russia using the opportunity to backdoor them.

I don't want to give them ideas but they missed several key US and allied installation that would ruin their day in a matter if minutes.

Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:13:43 AM EST

Originally Posted By motown_steve:
Whatever we do though, we have to make sure that free trade with the communist Chinese remains unencumbered. That's the important thing!


Seriously. God forbid we endanger the interests of our corporate masters.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:14:28 AM EST

Originally Posted By JIMBEAM:
Step Two.


US launches retaliatory strike against Chinese military installations (airfields, ports, ICBM site, that nice new dam) and population centers using US based ICBMs and if possible sub based missiles..


I don't care if we are blind their major ports and industrial area won't moving. Without home ports their navy will be fucked.




You think we'd nuke China over Taiwan?

Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:15:27 AM EST
Why wouldn't they go after our aircraft carriers? Do the Chicom's have a substantial sub force to do so?
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:15:32 AM EST

Because the American public is “abnormally sensitive” about military casualties, according to an article in China’s Liberation Army Daily, killing U.S. airmen or other personnel would spark a “domestic anti-war cry” on the home front and possibly force early withdrawal of U.S. forces. (“The U.S. experience in Somalia is usually cited in support of this assertion,” according to the Rand report.) Once this hard-and-fast assault on U.S. bases commenced, the Chinese army would “swiftly divert” its forces and “guard vigilantly against enemy retaliation,” according to a Chinese expert.


The liberals have effected how the world views us.

Bill Clinton's being a pussy still effect's us 15 years later
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:16:08 AM EST

Originally Posted By JIMBEAM:
Step Two.


US launches retaliatory strike against Chinese military installations (airfields, ports, ICBM site, that nice new dam) and population centers using US based ICBMs and if possible sub based missiles..


I don't care if we are blind their major ports and industrial area won't moving. Without home ports their navy will be fucked.



No question that we have the ability, but I highly doubt we would have the political will - especially with Hillary or Obama in charge.

-K
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:17:25 AM EST

Originally Posted By Archangel69:
Does anyone here believe we don't have the SAME type of documents prepared for a What If scenario? That we don't have a plan already set to deliver a tactical package?

It should be no surprise that China has this. While we may be the best at waging war, they have been doing so for thousands of years longer than we have.


peace,


Dean


How many wars did China actually fought in the last 15 years.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:17:28 AM EST

Originally Posted By mtk:
Don't we have "hypothetical" plans to attack pretty much every nation on earth?

Not that we ever plan on doing it, but we have people whose job it is to make sure we're prepared for any and all possibilities.

I imagine the Chinese are no different. Same as the Russians.


Exactly. It's called war gaming.

"Gentlemen, this month's exercise is war against...ummm...who is it this time?...Oh, I'll just pick one...Sumatra! That's it. Sumatra. Prepare a plan to counter a military offensive staged by Sumatra."

These exercises don't necessarily get put into action, but it keeps the tacticians, logistics personnel and everybody else thinking about the "what if". It's good practice.

And, if necessary, you can pull a plan down off the shelf, update it and off to war you go.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:19:44 AM EST

Originally Posted By Itchy:
Why wouldn't they go after our aircraft carriers? Do the Chicom's have a substantial sub force to do so?

We still have more subs but while we build one a year, they build 3. Plus they may always get some help from Russia which has a lot.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:19:58 AM EST
[Last Edit: 1/22/2008 9:24:48 AM EST by JIMBEAM]

Originally Posted By motown_steve:

Originally Posted By JIMBEAM:
Step Two.


US launches retaliatory strike against Chinese military installations (airfields, ports, ICBM site, that nice new dam) and population centers using US based ICBMs and if possible sub based missiles..


I don't care if we are blind their major ports and industrial area won't moving. Without home ports their navy will be fucked.




You think we'd nuke China over Taiwan?



No but we would they they launched attacks on our troops in Japan and SK and detonated a nuke over the Pacific fleet.


"Chinese missiles hit runways, fuel lines, barracks and supply depots at U.S. Air Force bases in Japan and South Korea. Long-range warheads destroy American satellites, crippling Air Force surveillance and communication networks. A nuclear fireball erupts high above the Pacific Ocean, ionizing the atmosphere and scrambling radars and radio feeds."

Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:25:06 AM EST
There are many countries that are lucky that ARFCOM doesn't lead the USA. Half the world would be a glowing crater. And they would all deserve it
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:25:21 AM EST

Originally Posted By JIMBEAM:

Originally Posted By motown_steve:

Originally Posted By JIMBEAM:
Step Two.


US launches retaliatory strike against Chinese military installations (airfields, ports, ICBM site, that nice new dam) and population centers using US based ICBMs and if possible sub based missiles..


I don't care if we are blind their major ports and industrial area won't moving. Without home ports their navy will be fucked.




You think we'd nuke China over Taiwan?



No but we would they they launched attacks on our troops in Japan and SK and detonated a nuke over the Pacific fleet.


"Chinese missiles hit runways, fuel lines, barracks and supply depots at U.S. Air Force bases in Japan and South Korea. Long-range warheads destroy American satellites, crippling Air Force surveillance and communication networks. A nuclear fireball erupts high above the Pacific Ocean, ionizing the atmosphere and scrambling radars and radio feeds."



Depends on who's in The White House.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:25:24 AM EST
China does not want a war with the USA; we are their best customer.

They do want Taiwan and all they have to do is wait for President Hillary or Obama so they can just walk right in. Neither of those 2 idiots would do anything. China really missed their chance for Taiwan when we had the last 2 Democrats in the Whitehouse! Jimmy or Bill would have done nothing either.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:25:52 AM EST
They are counting on a quick surrender- much as the Japanese were after Pearl.

What they would get is a naval battle over the Straits of Malacca, and attacks by a coalition that would include India, Japan and a host of smaller countries.

Deprived of resources and confronted by the most sophisticated countries in the world, they would be humbled, though the cost would be high.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:26:57 AM EST

Originally Posted By Special-K:
I agree that it won't happen while we are strong, but rather when we are weak. THis is classic Sun-Tsu. However, IMHO, right now we ARE weak. A decent chunk of our military is already tied down, public support is at rather low levers, and we're about to elect another Democrat to the President - combined with an already Democratic Congress.

While we might still be strong militarily in spite of current drains, politically we are very weak and will soon get weaker.



-K


The USN is not really busy now and if this conflict comes to be, the USN will be the lead service. The Chinese are have a bit of a problem geographically, they can be bottled in on the seas, they have only a few avenues to get out from China to blue water and those avenues can be made very tight with mines. Guess where the USN will be, the USN has fought in the these waters before, when was the last time China's Navy fought on the high seas, ... [Crickets].

Most people haven't noticed but the USN has been moving most of its subs to the Pacific, if a conflict does erupt, I would expect the men in these steel sharks to do what their Grandfathers did in WWII to the Japanese, completely shutdown merchant traffic and wreak havoc on Chicom naval vessels.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:28:08 AM EST

Originally Posted By Archangel69:
Does anyone here believe we don't have the SAME type of documents prepared for a What If scenario? That we don't have a plan already set to deliver a tactical package?

It should be no surprise that China has this. While we may be the best at waging war, they have been doing so for thousands of years longer than we have.


peace,


Dean


1. We most certainly have the same plans.

2. Their way of war has been hindered by their homogenous culture. The don't innovate as well as we do, although they are more actively pursuing some of our tricks that we are (computer skills).
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:28:12 AM EST
They would never land troops on the soil of this country. We would fight them street to street and kick their asses back to China.

At least, I would end up with a full auto AK that I have wanted, when I pull it out of one of their dead troops hands.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:29:11 AM EST
Big deal, we already have plans to take out Iran, North Korea, China, etc etc.

Everyone has a plan for one another. You dont wait until your shot at to decide where you will drop your bombs.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:30:09 AM EST
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:32:04 AM EST
[Last Edit: 1/22/2008 9:38:02 AM EST by JIMBEAM]

Originally Posted By motown_steve:

Originally Posted By JIMBEAM:

Originally Posted By motown_steve:

Originally Posted By JIMBEAM:
Step Two.


US launches retaliatory strike against Chinese military installations (airfields, ports, ICBM site, that nice new dam) and population centers using US based ICBMs and if possible sub based missiles..


I don't care if we are blind their major ports and industrial area won't moving. Without home ports their navy will be fucked.




You think we'd nuke China over Taiwan?



No but we would they they launched attacks on our troops in Japan and SK and detonated a nuke over the Pacific fleet.


"Chinese missiles hit runways, fuel lines, barracks and supply depots at U.S. Air Force bases in Japan and South Korea. Long-range warheads destroy American satellites, crippling Air Force surveillance and communication networks. A nuclear fireball erupts high above the Pacific Ocean, ionizing the atmosphere and scrambling radars and radio feeds."



Depends on who's in The White House.


Probably true. Once he were hit and blinded the President would only have a few minutes to decide. Thankfully, MAD would probably prevent the Chinese from trying. Going nuke even it is for the EMP limits our options. It's either wait hours to get a full picture of what is happening, wait until nukes hit the US, or attack. This type of situation can spin out of control quickly and then we are most likely all fucked.

Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:32:45 AM EST

If they did intend to invade America the first thing you might notice is a lot of people dropping dead for no apparent reason. Sort of like the Native Americans under their small pox ridden blankets wondering why is everyone sick?
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:35:52 AM EST
Its basically the Russian strategy from the Cold War. Nuke the Fulda Gap and roll through. Hope America surrenders without a fight. Not going to work. Once the nukes start we will retaliate.

Our response:

(1) Coordinated tactical nuke strike (B2's) on missile silos while taking out nuke subs with our attack boats (they only have two, IIRC).

(2) Massive nuclear attack on all Chinese infastructure, rendering them unable to fight a war for a generation.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:37:13 AM EST

Originally Posted By shotar:

Originally Posted By Justice23:

Because the American public is “abnormally sensitive” about military casualties, according to an article in China’s Liberation Army Daily, killing U.S. airmen or other personnel would spark a “domestic anti-war cry” on the home front and possibly force early withdrawal of U.S. forces. (“The U.S. experience in Somalia is usually cited in support of this assertion,” according to the Rand report.) Once this hard-and-fast assault on U.S. bases commenced, the Chinese army would “swiftly divert” its forces and “guard vigilantly against enemy retaliation,” according to a Chinese expert.


The liberals have effected how the world views us.

Bill Clinton's being a pussy still effect's us 15 years later


It is not however an incorrect assesment. This is nothing new. Vietnam's massive casualties for little or no measurable gain forever tarnished the nation's view of acceptable losses. Gulf War 1's incredible victory with very few losses gave people the impression that war was no longer dangerous for our side in the modern era.

The relatively light losses of the current conflict are perceived by the masses as shockingly horrendous and pointless, while ignoring the fact, that the scope of the conflict, and holding of territory with so few combat related losses is unparalleled in human history.

China's calculation of public sentiment in this regard is likely spot on.


The aversion to loses may make the decision to nuke them easier. [cough] Truman [/cough]

Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:37:14 AM EST
All they really have to do is keep loaning us money and then trash our economy.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:45:13 AM EST
Imagine where we would be now if we had followed MacArthur's advice and nuked China back in the 50's during the Korean war? Not dealing with this problem most likely.
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:45:21 AM EST
All WE have to do is lock down all the Wal-Marts and Harbor Freights and that'll trash THEIR economy.




I think if it came to that, the world would once again stand amazed at the ability of America to switch rapidly to a wartime production footing, and begin cranking out astounding amounts of military hardware and supplies, with no shortage of men and
women to man them in combat.



I really think that we should be making a very determined effort to turn Russia and
the former Soviet nations into ALLIES. REAL allies. Culturally speaking, the Russians
are more like Americans than the Chinese are. We'd be a better ally for Russia
than China would, for that reason.


CJ
Link Posted: 1/22/2008 9:57:00 AM EST

Originally Posted By Jrock82:
Can you imagine the shitstorm if China tried to invade the US?




They will be fighting soldiers, cops, gangbangers, us, the KKK, American Gladiators, the WWF and Stallone and every other group in America that lives to brawl.

LOL bring it on. Before it starts we could simply put a sign with a ruler on it like at carnivals that says "You must be this tall to invade this country." That will stop them at the shores
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