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Posted: 10/7/2012 4:50:21 PM EDT


The problem is that even though the Household survey tends to be very volatile, this decline seems to lack face-validity, particularly after the prior month's numbers. The consensus estimate was that the government would report that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.1% in September. GDP growth was 1.3% in the second quarter and seems to be no better this quarter. The government's Establishment survey shows there were 114,000 new jobs created in September –– very close to the consensus of 113,000 –– and not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate.

The obvious conclusion is that a new employment measure is needed. Gallup has proposed such a measure –– Payroll to Population (P2P) –– the number of Americans employed full-time for an employer as a percentage of the U.S. population. This is a much simpler measure that has none of the numerous adjustments made to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. The P2P deteriorated slightly to 45.1% in September from 45.3% in August, suggesting the real jobs situation was essentially unchanged last month.



From here
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 4:52:45 PM EDT
If they can't adjust it, how are we supposed to know what they want us to know?
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 4:53:22 PM EDT
Anybody that does not have  enough smarts to realize that the books were ''cooked'' on that bogus-ass report––- needs to be frisked for drugs,,,,,
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 4:53:37 PM EDT
Anybody that does not have  enough smarts to realize that the books were ''cooked'' on that bogus-ass report––- needs to be frisked for drugs,,,,,
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 4:56:53 PM EDT
No shit!
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 4:59:50 PM EDT
Gallup proposes a new employment measure called "payroll to population"?

I have a new employment measure that I would like to propose.

It's called "have the democrats stop lying."

Link Posted: 10/7/2012 5:06:05 PM EDT
Adults who are self-employed, working part time, unemployed, or out of the workforce are not counted as payroll-employed in the P2P metric.


So it doesn't include an increase in small business owners when times are good and those that take social security early in frustration or fake limp their way into disability when times are bad?
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 5:07:39 PM EDT
So 114,000 jobs isnt enough to lower the percentage by 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 percent???



But I thought there was an election coming.
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 5:28:50 PM EDT
I think the BLS statistics are probably impeccably accurate.

Does someone know something that I don't?
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 5:30:57 PM EDT
Quoted:
I think the BLS statistics are probably impeccably accurate.

Does someone know something that I don't?


They are accurate.

It is just determining what you feed as inputs and how you define your criteria.
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 5:31:20 PM EDT
Figures don't lie, but liars figure.  Don't worry, they will adjust it to show the accidental mistake in reporting of 7.8.  Of course this will be done conveniently after the election.
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 5:31:52 PM EDT
Gallup is going to get another visit from Axelrod.
Link Posted: 10/7/2012 5:34:38 PM EDT
Quoted:
I think the BLS statistics are probably impeccably accurate.

Does someone know something that I don't?


All one needs to do is drop the number of jobs available and the amount of people who have dropped off unemployment and VOILA, magical lower unemployment numbers that don't accurately reflect the true figures.
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