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Posted: 9/22/2005 3:11:59 PM EDT
You heard it here first.


Article

September 21st, 2005 1530 PST (FTW) – As I pack my bags to head to Washington for Congressional Black Caucus hearings on the September 11th attacks (to be conducted this Friday and Saturday) my inbox is being progressively flooded with emails from inside sources in the energy industry about what Hurricane Rita is now likely to accomplish – the near-complete destruction of an already teetering US economy.

Fully 30% of all US refining capacity is in the target zone. Perhaps most importantly, almost every refinery capable of producing diesel fuel is in immediate danger. This promises (especially in the wake of Katrina) a devastating and irreplaceable shortage of the diesel fuel needed to power America’s harvest of grain and food crops this month and next. Without diesel fuel to power the harvesters and combines, crops may be left to rot in the ground presenting a double whammy: food shortages (with prices that may treble or quadruple) and export defaults negatively impacting the financial markets and trade deficit.

Even before Rita strikes, fully 30% of all domestic natural gas production is shut in. The US cannot import natural gas from overseas like it can both crude and refined products. Repair work on infrastructure damaged by Katrina has been halted as crews have been evacuated. The remaining half of Gulf energy production undamaged by Katrina is directly in Rita’s crosshairs. Natural gas prices are up over 110% and home heating oil futures are up almost 70% before Rita even gets here. Since Katrina, US domestic oil production is down one million barrels per day (from 5Mbpd to 4 Mbpd). We were producing 9 Mbpd less than a decade ago.

Peak Oil has made replacement of losses almost impossible even as Saudi heavy-sour is being spurned as useless around the world, even with discounts of up to $10 and $12 per barrel.

A Bloomberg article today contains a quotation from a Wall Street energy expert as saying, “‘Rita is developing into our worst-case scenario,’ said John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at Fimat USA in New York. ‘This is headed right into our other major refining center just after all the damage done to facilities in Louisiana. From an energy perspective it doesn't get any worse than this.’”

The Chairman of Valero Energy agrees with the Bloomberg assessment calling Rita a potentially national disaster. His opinion is important because Valero operates more refineries in the US than any other company.

CNN is now predicting $5 per gallon gasoline and this will not likely go away with market manipulations. We had not yet experienced the permanent spikes resulting from Katrina, and the emergency reserves of the United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the International Energy Agency have already been tapped once and not refilled.

The South Texas Project nuclear plant – one of the largest in the country – is being completely shut down in preparation for Rita’s landfall. It is only 12 miles from the Texas coast and almost dead center in the hurricane’s projected path. Texas has its own power grid but catastrophic electricity shortages could easily ripple throughout the country in a short time. Electricity lost from that that facility will only be added to what is lost from other facilities powered by now critically short supplies of natural gas.

For those of you who expect FEMA to behave any differently in Texas than it did in New Orleans you are in for a crude awakening. FEMA will do what it must now do to preserve even a functioning part of America’s governing and economic infrastructure. Saving lives will be one of the least important functions in its mandate. While I had serious doubts about America’s ability to recover from Katrina, I am certain that – barring divine intervention – the United States is finished; not only as a superpower, but possibly even as a single, unified nation with the arrival of Hurricane Rita.

Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:13:28 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 3:13:44 PM EDT by IAMLEGEND]

Originally Posted By Specop_007:
You heard it here first.


Article

...



Actually, I think the destruction of the US economy has come up in the SF but for the GDers it might be different.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:14:00 PM EDT
Uh. Huh.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:14:13 PM EDT
Well, that didn't take long - did it?
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:15:34 PM EDT
I don't know about yall but I'm just gonna go ahead and kill myself now.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:16:22 PM EDT
So this stupid horseshit makes you happy...

Formthewilderness.com... oh please.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:18:47 PM EDT
I've never bought into the Peak Oil hype. There are plenty of untapped reserves that we haven't touched yet. With the price per barrel being elevated shale oil is looking pretty attractive as well.

Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:19:19 PM EDT

Originally Posted By 101_proof:
I don't know about yall but I'm just gonna go ahead and kill myself now.



Can I have your stuff?
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:20:42 PM EDT
I guess we'll know soon enough what the consequences are and what's real.

Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:21:22 PM EDT

Originally Posted By 101_proof:
I don't know about yall but I'm just gonna go ahead and kill myself now.



1 step ahead of ya. After reading that article I put a gun in my mouth and dry-fired it.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:26:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 3:26:56 PM EDT by elkmontarms]
I think this is going to be a big problem for all of us in the short term but, "A Complete destruction of US economy is here" is a bit extreme right now. If this storm does take out those chem/oil plants then we will be in for some short term problems for sure. I have a bad feeling that we will see $5 a gallon gas in the very near future for a short time. I this worst case senario does happen we won't care what we pay for gas because there will be a short term shortage.

We are Americans and a we will recover no matter what happens. The Government won't help much, but the spirit of the American worker, business man and investors will pull us out of what ever happpens.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:26:39 PM EDT

Originally Posted By RikWriter:

Originally Posted By 101_proof:
I don't know about yall but I'm just gonna go ahead and kill myself now.



Can I have your stuff?



Sure.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:39:01 PM EDT
If it is the COMPLETE destruction of the US economy....that means even my daughters lemonade stand is facing ruin. Actually, if the complete economy collapses it will be because of the idiots in Congress and the White House who have spent us into oblivion!!!! They are literally insane spending as they do. It is going to come home to roost some day.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:39:52 PM EDT

Originally Posted By LTVN68:
If it is the COMPLETE destruction of the US economy....that means even my daughters lemonade stand is facing ruin. Actually, if the complete economy collapses it will be because of the idiots in Congress and the White House who have spent us into oblivion!!!! They are literally insane spending as they do. It is going to come home to roost some day.



I know...and my thread on the Debt Clock got locked
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:49:00 PM EDT

Originally Posted By IAMLEGEND:

Originally Posted By Specop_007:
You heard it here first.


Article

...



Actually, I think the destruction of the US economy has come up in the SF but for the GDers it might be different.



We know the score
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:49:20 PM EDT
You ain't see nothing yet..................
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:55:32 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 3:59:56 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Specop_007:
You heard it here first.


Article

September 21st, 2005 1530 PST (FTW) – As I pack my bags to head to Washington for Congressional Black Caucus hearings



This is where I stopped reading.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:05:15 PM EDT
Oil prices are not what will ruin our economy, The out of control spending by the President and Congress, plus several hundred Billion for NO and several hundred Billion for the aftermath of Rita and lets not forget the couple hundred Billion for Iraq. We are fucked ( economically ) speaking. I am sure glad we ( The conservative party ) finally got control of the Government.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:08:21 PM EDT
I'm buying 560 rounds of .223 and an unknown amount of 12ga...
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:18:25 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:

For those of you who expect FEMA to behave any differently in Texas than it did in New Orleans you are in for a crude awakening. FEMA will do what it must now do to preserve even a functioning part of America’s governing and economic infrastructure. Saving lives will be one of the least important functions in its mandate. While I had serious doubts about America’s ability to recover from Katrina, I am certain that – barring divine intervention – the United States is finished; not only as a superpower, but possibly even as a single, unified nation with the arrival of Hurricane Rita.




I will bet any taker $5,000 that it is not the end of the US Economy and the above is the chicken little mewings of quitter sheep.

Any takers?



$5000 in gold bullion, yes. In U.S. denominated cash, no.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:22:44 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 4:26:56 PM EDT by LWilde]
THE SKY IS FALLING...WE'LL NEVER RECOVER!!!

Hey...Chicken Little...lighten up!

For the record, Mike Rupert is a CERTIFIED EOTW skull nut and HUGE mouthpiece for the far left whackos. He is probably the wierdest of the World's Worst Conspiracists.

Mike also counts among his clients some of Washington's craziest. Just read his bio...

Sorry...that dog don't hunt!



Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:31:12 PM EDT


We have THE most feared military force in the world..............................

If we need a new economy, we will just go kick somebodys ass and take theirs!


Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:31:16 PM EDT
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!


while i agree that this will be a huge disaster we will get by. we may pay $5 a gallon, we may see $5 loaves of bread and $10 milk but we will get by
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:35:55 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:41:40 PM EDT
We will find out how bad it is next week! Stay tuned!
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:43:01 PM EDT
Supposition, exaggeration,& quotes taken out of context --in other words more of the same from the wackoweenies on the left.

CNN'c track record on predictions (how is that news anyway?) is almost 100% wrong 100% of the time the National enquirer has more credibility than both CNN and The CBC combined. Heck a CBC news conference ON cnn still makes the average high school newspaper more credible.
All we need now is harry reid screaming and dan rather crying about it to make it beliveable
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:44:59 PM EDT
Well it could go two ways:
- If the economy collapsed it might be a nice sharp slap in the face to the American spirit and the sheeple would wake up and realize they need to be a little more frugale in their lives. This in turn would bring the country together and make us stronger.

- The other option is people would panick, crying all over the liberal media about the ineffective government's inability to take care them. With their hands out while they chant "give me, give me, give me" the sheeple would elect which ever government promises to give them the most free stuff in return for their votes.

I think the second one is the most realistic.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:45:55 PM EDT
So the economy as a whole fails.. life will suck, but it WILL go on, if only as smaller autonomous communities.

Which are, ironically, what the founding fathers wanted us to be.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 4:53:16 PM EDT
[the postman]I am gathering horses and howitzers for my army as we speak[/the postman]
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 5:40:44 PM EDT

Originally Posted By crowboy:
Oil prices are not what will ruin our economy, The out of control spending by the President and Congress,



Last time I checked Congress controls the spending; not GWB.

Link Posted: 9/22/2005 5:45:36 PM EDT
Cool does this mean I dont need to go to work tomorrow?
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 7:19:19 PM EDT

Originally Posted By crowboy:
Oil prices are not what will ruin our economy, The out of control spending by the President and Congress, plus several hundred Billion for NO and several hundred Billion for the aftermath of Rita and lets not forget the couple hundred Billion for Iraq. We are fucked ( economically ) speaking. I am sure glad we ( The conservative party ) finally got control of the Government.



Spending is not terribly high by historical standards. $200 billion for hurricane repairs is not a big deal if it is over several years (paid over 10 years it's only $20 billion a year). The S&L bailout was a whole lot worse, and happened when the economy was much smaller.

GunLvr
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 7:22:19 PM EDT
Just wait for the next storm to rip through the Carolinas!
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 7:24:50 PM EDT

Originally Posted By roboman:

Originally Posted By 101_proof:
I don't know about yall but I'm just gonna go ahead and kill myself now.



1 step ahead of ya. After reading that article I put a gun in my mouth and dry-fired it.



I speak to you now from the world of the Hereafter; Elysian fields, Heaven, Utopia, etc.

It is very nice here, FEAR NOT...
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 7:36:37 PM EDT
Sorry, I have to ask a serious question about something suggested
by that article. I know less than nothing about refining oil into
usable products.

Is it true that a specific refinery is targeted to making diesel fuel.
Or is it true that a refinery makes everything from asphault to
gasoline in the same process, with more or less "refining"?

DanM
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 7:36:50 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 7:39:22 PM EDT

Originally Posted By roboman:

Originally Posted By 101_proof:
I don't know about yall but I'm just gonna go ahead and kill myself now.



1 step ahead of ya. After reading that article I put a gun in my mouth and dry-fired it.



Link Posted: 9/22/2005 7:50:45 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/22/2005 7:51:27 PM EDT by Max_Mike]

Originally Posted By GunLvrPHD:

Originally Posted By crowboy:
Oil prices are not what will ruin our economy, The out of control spending by the President and Congress, plus several hundred Billion for NO and several hundred Billion for the aftermath of Rita and lets not forget the couple hundred Billion for Iraq. We are fucked ( economically ) speaking. I am sure glad we ( The conservative party ) finally got control of the Government.



Spending is not terribly high by historical standards. $200 billion for hurricane repairs is not a big deal if it is over several years (paid over 10 years it's only $20 billion a year). The S&L bailout was a whole lot worse, and happened when the economy was much smaller.

GunLvr



We have a winner...

Well as I remember the S&L bail out will come to some where between $500 billion and $1 TRILLION spread out over 30 years.

In real dollars deficts are not as high as they were in the 80's and some of the 90's.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 7:56:15 PM EDT
Well then I don't see any reason why I shouldn't be out there doing a "pre-looting recon!".

Do you guys think they'll run licence plate numbers on a stolen Humvee during the apocalype? Maybe I can convert it over to run on wood.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 8:08:02 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 8:17:15 PM EDT

Originally Posted By LWilde:

Hey...Chicken Little...lighten up!







Link Posted: 9/22/2005 8:24:30 PM EDT
" The meek shall inherit the earth"

Right now, kinda like getting a lottery ticket with all the wrong numbers. Then again, might be the the kindlin' to start the fire, that keeps you warm.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 8:27:23 PM EDT
If we just cut the Medicare Prescription Bill payouts 10% over the next decade that's $120 Billion. If we just made it a reasonable Bill (25% cut) we could do all this Hurricane mitigation (levees etc) and rebuilding up to Class 5 in most areas (tough to make those inner levees in NO Class 5). No real way to keep NO (and some other coastal areas) from sinking a little every year though. Maybe we'll get some sense and build a couple of new refineries inland a ways and some nuke power plants. These items should be considered National Defense priorities for Nature and terrorism.

A lot to hope for I know.
Link Posted: 9/22/2005 8:35:54 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Stealth:
Well then I don't see any reason why I shouldn't be out there doing a "pre-looting recon!".

Do you guys think they'll run licence plate numbers on a stolen Humvee during the apocalype? Maybe I can convert it over to run on wood.




Link Posted: 9/22/2005 8:46:34 PM EDT

Originally Posted By KC_MO_shooter:
Last time I checked Congress controls the spending; not GWB.




Last time I checked the President had the power to veto any bills passed by Congress including spending bills. Last time I checked he hasn't vetoed a single one.
Link Posted: 9/23/2005 2:15:12 AM EDT

Originally Posted By KC_MO_shooter:

Originally Posted By crowboy:
Oil prices are not what will ruin our economy, The out of control spending by the President and Congress,



Last time I checked Congress controls the spending; not GWB.



the President has the veto power ( which he has never used )
Link Posted: 9/23/2005 2:33:44 AM EDT
tag
Link Posted: 9/23/2005 2:35:59 AM EDT

Originally Posted By 101_proof:
I don't know about yall but I'm just gonna go ahead and kill myself now.



I'm not cleaning it up.
Link Posted: 9/23/2005 2:38:31 AM EDT

Originally Posted By elkmontarms:
I think this is going to be a big problem for all of us in the short term but, "A Complete destruction of US economy is here" is a bit extreme right now. If this storm does take out those chem/oil plants then we will be in for some short term problems for sure. I have a bad feeling that we will see $5 a gallon gas in the very near future for a short time. I this worst case senario does happen we won't care what we pay for gas because there will be a short term shortage.

We are Americans and a we will recover no matter what happens. The Government won't help much, but the spirit of the American worker, business man and investors will pull us out of what ever happpens.



Rita is already turning more north. The refineries are on the low-pressure side.
Everybody pour up a New Castle Ale, and stay calm. Oh, keep a few mags loaded,
just for peace of mind.
Link Posted: 9/23/2005 2:40:51 AM EDT

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:

For those of you who expect FEMA to behave any differently in Texas than it did in New Orleans you are in for a crude awakening. FEMA will do what it must now do to preserve even a functioning part of America’s governing and economic infrastructure. Saving lives will be one of the least important functions in its mandate. While I had serious doubts about America’s ability to recover from Katrina, I am certain that – barring divine intervention – the United States is finished; not only as a superpower, but possibly even as a single, unified nation with the arrival of Hurricane Rita.




I will bet any taker $5,000 that it is not the end of the US Economy and the above is the chicken little mewings of quitter sheep.

Any takers?



I'm with you; have a New Castle Ale.
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