Got this from a source that I'm not 100% sure is reliable, but I have no reason to question him either:

"I talked to an expert on US-China relations today and this is a rundown of what we discussed. I couldn't sit and write everything down so I'm sure I'm forgetting alot but these are key points. Dr. T.Y. Wang is the man I spoke with. He is an expert on relations and has wrote many articles and books on this subject. He has testified before Congress on these issues. I was actually surprised he met with me with all the news going on.
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The crew are not considered hostages by US or China.
The crew will definitely be returned.
The plane will probably be returned, but the technology in the plane has been compromised.
China will not want to do anything to piss off Bush because China needs our investment and capital. Our money is China's vital interest right now.
President Jiang Zemin has asked for surveillance of China to stop. This may be what is demanded for the plane to be returned.
China may ask that we do not sell arms to Taiwan for the plane to be returned. We have just decided though to sell arms to Taiwan. Not AEGIS cruisers though, something less innovative. This has not even been announced yet.
China will not give the crew and plane back without something on return. This would make the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) lose credibility among its own people.
We have withdrawn warships from the China Sea. This may have been requested by China.
If the crew is kept, it will send relations back to the Cold War era.
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Now, this is what Dr. Wang personally thinks is going to happen.
China will return the plane and crew as a good gesture to Bush. This is also Bush's top priority.
Bush, during the rest of his time in office will work with the chinese and not provoke them.
China is taking a long time to get anything done because they have to make sure they make all the right decisions. They can gain alot from this is everything is played out right. They will ask for increased withdrawl of US forces, no theater missile defense, and no more spy planes flying near China."