Posted 11/18/2003 9:09 PM     Updated 11/18/2003 10:52 PM

China: Use of force may be 'unavoidable' against Taiwan
BEIJING (AP) — Raising the stakes in an already tense situation, China threatened Taiwan in remarks published Wednesday that "the use of force may become unavoidable" if the island pursues independence — the mainland's strongest statement in years against its archrival.
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From:
www.usatoday.com/news/world/2003-11-18-china-taiwan_x.htm

Questions:

- Will China really do it?
- If so, how will the U.S. respond?

My question is: Why the hell does China give a flying fuck about Taiwan?

Well this is unusual. Is Taiwan doing something this week? Holding elections or something?

Cause China has a greater crisis to worry about in North Korea right now. Its highly unususal for them to be muddying the waters right now with Taiwan

what exactly do the chi-commies plan on doing? the best they could do is lob missiles at the ROC, they would have to be absolutely crazy to go nuclear....

Quoted: My question is: Why the hell does China give a flying fuck about Taiwan?

In case you don't already know, the island of Taiwan was once part of China. After WWII, Mao led the communist revolution and conservative diehards fled to Taiwan and set up an independent state under which has been under US protection ever since. It has also been a bone of contention with the commies ever since. If they could put a decent navy together they would have tried to take it back by force long ago.

I thought that we signed a treaty to protect Taiwan or at least render military assistance if they needed it?  I do remember watching GW say he supports a unified China.  Guess he figures he's spread a bit thin right now.  

Quoted: Quoted: My question is: Why the hell does China give a flying fuck about Taiwan? In case you don't already know, the island of Taiwan was once part of China. After WWI, Mao led the communist revolution and conservative diehards fled to Taiwan and set up an independent state under which has been under US protection ever since. It has also been a bone of contention with the commies ever since. If they could put a decent navy together they would have tried to take it back by force long ago.

Ya, I know Taiwan was part of China and are "independent" now, but what the fuck do they have besides a functioning economy that the Chinks could have if the werent commies?

Is this sorta like the Falklands and the Argy's?

Quoted: I thought that we signed a treaty to protect Taiwan or at least render military assistance if they needed it?  I do remember watching GW say he supports a unified China.  Guess he figures he's spread a bit thin right now.

We have a law (not a treaty, iirc) requiring us to assist Taiwan if they are attacked...

The official US position, IIRC, is that we support peaceful reunification (ala Hong Kong), but will fight any attempt at a forcible solution...

As for USN vs China, it would be like the USN vs the USSR, except with frigates instead of Backfires... They are pinning their entire hopes on high-speed cruise ASMs (see Sunburn/Onyx thread)...

Taiwan and their people are decendants of the Nationalist party who fled when Mao came to power promising the people all sorts of stuff.  The Nationalists worked hard to trade with other countries, and built up quite a large, wealthy economy.  Mainland China is pissed because their per capita income is so low compared to the rest of the world, especially Taiwan, and that Taiwan is relatively much more prosperous.  As a Taiwanese decended individual, I find it ironic that the Mainland would dare call Taiwan a "rogue province", given that my ancestors fled to avoid persecution by Mao and the communists.  We did not leave for "independence" or to start a new world.  We left so that we may live our own lives.  Taiwan was never a province of China.  Taiwan as we know it today was built when the Nationalists came there.  There were only a few tribes of natives there before the Nationalists came.  It is nothing like Hong Kong, which had existed as a province before Great Britain came and took it over, and had native Chinese people living there.

Sadly, if China were to decide to take Taiwan, it would be over in a few days.  Although Taiwan has a more advanced, more highly trained military, China has millions of people in its standing army.  Odds of 10 to 1 are just not good odds, regardless of armament.  Hopefully, this is just more saber-rattling by China to gain international attention, because if there were to invade, there would basically be nothing the United States could do about it, except maybe reinvade and occupy.  

Ghost

Quoted: Taiwan and their people are decendants of the Nationalist party who fled when Mao came to power promising the people all sorts of stuff.  The Nationalists worked hard to trade with other countries, and built up quite a large, wealthy economy.  Mainland China is pissed because their per capita income is so low compared to the rest of the world, especially Taiwan, and that Taiwan is relatively much more prosperous.  As a Taiwanese decended individual, I find it ironic that the Mainland would dare call Taiwan a "rogue province", given that my ancestors fled to avoid persecution by Mao and the communists.  We did not leave for "independence" or to start a new world.  We left so that we may live our own lives.  Taiwan was never a province of China.  Taiwan as we know it today was built when the Nationalists came there.  There were only a few tribes of natives there before the Nationalists came.  It is nothing like Hong Kong, which had existed as a province before Great Britain came and took it over, and had native Chinese people living there. Sadly, if China were to decide to take Taiwan, it would be over in a few days.  Although Taiwan has a more advanced, more highly trained military, China has millions of people in its standing army.  Odds of 10 to 1 are just not good odds, regardless of armament.  Hopefully, this is just more saber-rattling by China to gain international attention, because if there were to invade, there would basically be nothing the United States could do about it, except maybe reinvade and occupy.   Ghost

the problem is getting men on the ground. China is not currently capable of pulling this off or they would have already. Examples would be England in WWII. Hitler never could pull it off or the entire conflict might have gone far differently. We nuked Japan because of the incredible casualties we would have suffered.

Taking an island country is not an easy thing.

It's not like we have anyway of stopping PRC from taking it back and we'll never go nuclear with China cause they can hit us back tit for tat.

I would also hope that we wouldn't make it so easy for them either.

There won't be a war anytime soon between Tiawan and the PRC. How is Wal-mart, Mikey D's etc going to get their trinkets etc. China does a massive amount of trade with the USA, I think that they going after bigger fish. It all about money, especially the Yankee greenback.

Also keep in mind that, even if China could get enough troops across to take Taiwan, it would take them a long time to prepare. If there was serious preparation to invade, a couple of US carrier groups would be there before they could take off. I think we actually DID move in a carrier group or two a few years ago when things were starting to get tense over there.

Once in place, our Navy could kick China’s ass any day of the week and prevent them from getting any significant force to Taiwan. The real question is whether the conflict would go nuclear (probably not if Chinese leadership has any brains), but serious SHTF would occur if it did.

Quoted: It's not like we have anyway of stopping PRC from taking it back and we'll never go nuclear with China cause they can hit us back tit for tat.

Well, Scht0nk, I see you've simmered down a little. Welcome to the site

We could stop them. We have naval superiority and the only way they can get at Taiwan is with their navy. It is not currently up to the task but they are working at it thanks to US dollars. Navies are very expensive to build and run.

Currently, we have considerable superiority in nukes but thanks to the Clintons that gap is closing rapidly. We sow the seeds of our own destruction.

I'll tell ya we have far more to fear from China then we ever did from the Soviets.

I believe they will try to take Taiwan.  Not by force at first but as Taiwan resists, as they have stated they will do, it will incrementally escalate.  China will use grandstanding and claim to the pussy UN that it is only reuinifying with an already Chinese state.  All the while here in the USA there will be endless debate on whether to get involved, how the law to defend Taiwan is outdated, etc.  The bad thing about our massive $$$ going to China is that it is reenforcing the notion of a perfect system in Communism.  We like to believe that our $$$ bring western influence that will eventually lead to the toppling of Communist China and the institution of a more democratic gov't.  Problem with that is that China is vastly different culturally than the USSR and they are very reclusive.  I believe that this and the N. Korea debacle are the greatest risks we face in the next 10 years.  We have lost our hold on nuke proliferation in N.K. and there's not much we can do now since they pretty much have at least 2 and maybe 6 warheads.  Can't get us but can do some serious hurt to Japan and the south.  So now we are stuck having to negotiate with a fucking nutjob because...   Nevermind.

China can bomb Taiwan back to the stone age if they wanted to.

As has been pointed out, organizing a seaborne invasion of a island nation is a VERY tough nut to crack as Hitler found out the hard way.  Way too much lead time required and virtually impossible to conceal preparations in this day and age.

I know that the Asian cultures have VERY LONG memories.  I think that unless there is a complete revolution within China that destroys the Communist system we will be hearing about China vs. Taiwan every so often for decades (if not centuries) to come.

Interestingly. Taiwan has never been a part of the modern mainland Chinese State. In 1911 or 1912, with the fall of the last emperor, the Republic of China was nominally established both on the mainland and on Taiwan. However, as a result of the 1895 Sino-Japanese War, Taiwan was under Japanese control from about 1895 until the end of WWII.

There was of course no Chinese government worthy of the name until 1949, at which time the Reds established themselves as supreme on the mainland, leaving The Nationalists on Taiwan. For all its shortcomings, the gov't of Taiwan managed to ride out the Cultural Revolution, the Great Leap Forward, and assorted other Maoist lunacies with little or no damage and with growing economic and political achievements. The result is that mainland China is a fermenting but aimless economic cesspool under the heel of the 5th (or maybe 4th) Emperor of the Mao Dynasty, while Taiwan is a prosperous genuine republic.

I don't think China has the wherewithal to take Taiwan except by intimidation, and by damned little of that if the US lives up to its obligations. Communism is a blot on the face of the earth. It is run of the mill despotism dressed up in messianic pseudoscientific clothes. It has already failed everywhere except China, and it will fail there, too.

[Edited to add] Red China says the same thing about every year or so. Whenever they read a letter to the editor in the Straits Times (or whatever the Taiwanese paper is) calling for independence, the courtiers of the Mao Emperor proclaim that a declaration of independence would trigger a military response. They'v said it since 1949 (more often lately, since, iirc, it used to be a serious crime in Taiwan to call for independence rather than the officially longed-for liberation of the mainland).

The over water distance between China and Taiwan is not that great. the only reason China has not invaded already is the US is holding a big economic stick over them.Remember we are one of China's biggest trading partners.if you ever watched Taiwan TV or read the papers taiwans politics is a joke. Politictions having fist fights on public TV.

Quoted: if you ever watched Taiwan TV or read the papers taiwans politics is a joke. Politictions having fist fights on public TV.

As distinguished from the mainland, where the government is able to say with a single voice "Fire into the crowd."

Quoted: It's not like we have anyway of stopping PRC from taking it back and we'll never go nuclear with China cause they can hit us back tit for tat.

not up to date on world military powers are we?

Thanks for the insight FLAL1A.

Quoted: My question is: Why the hell does China give a flying fuck about Taiwan?

Technology, manufacturing, and their pride of loosing territory.

If you really think that the U.S. will stand with Taiwan when the "pushing and shoving" starts.........maybe you haven't walked thru WallyMartWorld lately.

I think the business community will pressure FedGov.org to sacrifice Taiwan for the sake of cheap toys and vacuum cleaners!

Quoted: Taiwan and their people are decendants of the Nationalist party who fled when Mao came to power promisng the people all sorts of stuff.   Ghost

Actually, Chiang Kai Shek and the remnants of the KMT fled to the island of Formosa as it was called then, and set up their own government.  The population of the island were NOT descendents of Chiang and the KMT, they were indiginous people.  The KMT ruled by martial law for 40 years; human rights were a huge stumbling block for the KMT to gain mainstream acceptance here in the U.S.  The transition in the country over the last 15 years has been remarkable, both in terms of economic progress and political progress.  

The once outlawed opposotion DPP is now in power, and both the DPP and KMT have large numbers of native born Taiwanese in their ranks.  The Vice President, Annette Lu, is a native born Taiwanese, and was jailed for 5 years by the KMT for her participation in political dissent back in the 80's.  

After the derecognition of Taiwan, the Congress passed The Taiwan Relations Act, which sets forth our relationship with the RoC as law.  Among other things, it states that the U.S. shall provide Taiwan "defensive" military hardware...(they buy it, we don't give it to them).  

The chicomms have pitched a fit over this part of the TRA for years, and every time we go to sell something to them, they freak.  

For whatever reason, Taiwan is a thumb in the eye of the Chicomms, who attempt to block everything Taiwan does.  Their view USED to be "Taiwan, like a ripe apple, will fall from the tree some day", or words to that effect.  The fact is, they've NEVER renounced the use of force to "re-unite" Taiwan with the motherland, even though the US has been putting pressure on them to do so for years.  

The TRA doesn't explicitly state we will come to Taiwan's aid if attacked by the chicomms; our mutual defense treaty with Taiwan is not in effect anymore, so the jury is split on what our obligations are under the TRA; morally, to not come to their aid would be to sell one of our most fervent allies anywhere right down the river.  Pres. Clinton dispatched a couple of carrier battle groups to the region several years ago when the Chicomms started testing missiles in the Taiwan Straits around election time.  

Quoted: It's not like we have anyway of stopping PRC from taking it back and we'll never go nuclear with China cause they can hit us back tit for tat.

That is why we are building missile defense.  China doesn't have that many ICBMs.  We can probably build GBIs faster than they can build ICBMs.  China knows this.  They are rattling cages because come 1 October, our missile defense goes operational.  Their ability to strike back becomes questionable.  

Quoted: We can probably build GBIs faster than they can build ICBMs.

Pardon my ignorance, but other than the Georgia Bureau of Investigation, what's a GBI?

Taiwan was for many years part of Japan.  And the USA captured it at the end of WWII.

GunLvr