Bitcoin hits $125k - 10/4/25 (Page 618 of 618)
Not to dunk on him, but the best thing to happen to the space is for the 4 year cycle narrative to just go away. Personally I've also left BTC maxiism... I think this continues to be an interesting couple of months, especially if we get the back test soon.
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Originally Posted By woodsie: Bear market is over, confidence pretty high. We just completed our first bull flag after a series of bear flags going back to October 2025. Originally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By Scrote: 86K Bear market is over, confidence pretty high. We just completed our first bull flag after a series of bear flags going back to October 2025.  Crazy volume today |
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Originally Posted By Zac87: I’ve been waiting for you to chime in with your thoughts! Originally Posted By Zac87: Originally Posted By woodsie: Bear market is over, confidence pretty high. We just completed our first bull flag after a series of bear flags going back to October 2025. I’ve been waiting for you to chime in with your thoughts! I hibernate during Bitcoin bear markets. That said, don't expect a line straight up. In the first phase of the last Bitcoin bull market, we several ~20% corrections prior to making new all time highs. We also had a period where Bitcoin crabbed for a solid 6 months after recovering from the bottom. In the bear market before that, we had a 60% correction as a result of the COVID black swan. All I think this means right now is that the bottom is in and we will generally move in the direction of up for the next 2-3 years with all normal volatility implied as usual and barring any broader economic black swan events. The other thing is to set reasonable expectations for this cycle. The "Bottom to Top" of the last cycle was around 8x and the "Top to Top" was just shy of 2x. Declining rate of return is an easily observable phenomenon in Bitcoin and if we can hit even $200k this cycle, we will be doing pretty good for ourselves. If we presumed $200k in 2.5 years from now that's a ~40% annualized rate of return which is by most measures pretty great but it's not the triple and quadruple digit returns that enticed people to cryptocurrency in the first place. I dumped a pretty good portion of my holdings in the last cycle and it's likely that this upcoming one will be my last other than some quantity of "never sell" holdings that I'll hang on to as schmuck insurance. I still think Bitcoin hit's a million given enough time but we are approaching the point where you have to start thinking about rates of return and your investment alternatives. Bitcoin hitting a million is a milestone but that doesn't make it a worthwhile investment to be overweight in if it's getting across the finish line years from now with 8% annualized returns as the declining returns phenomenon keeps pressing on. |
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Guess we're regressing a bit tonight, but dang these days don't help my work motivation problem. Attached File |
I would like to remind everyone that disorganized violence is never the answer. - John Carter