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Posted: 1/28/2011 3:42:41 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/28/2011 3:44:49 PM EDT by gene5]
if Mubarek steps down and Egypt becomes unstable, and is prime for a take over from the likes of the Muslim brotherhood,there is fear that the suez canal could be shut down and oil will soar out of site .could a action like this lead to war? oil jumped 3.70 a barrel today,gold was up 20 bucks also.the real fear is if all this happens the whole region will become unstable.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:44:35 PM EDT
Originally Posted By gene5:
if Mubarek steps down and Egypt becomes unstable, and is prime for a take over from the likes of the Muslim brotherhood,there is fear that the suez canal could be shut down and oil will soar out of site .could a action like this lead to war? oil jumped 3.70 a barrel today,gold was up 20 bucks also.the real fear is if all this happens the whole region will become unstable.


You don't think we'd step in and take control before allowing the Muslim brotherhood to take over?

Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:45:52 PM EDT
Maybe a coalition of the willing in our future? I'd like to see Zero try to pull that together......Not that he would or could.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:46:35 PM EDT
Originally Posted By The_Reaper:
Originally Posted By gene5:
if Mubarek steps down and Egypt becomes unstable, and is prime for a take over from the likes of the Muslim brotherhood,there is fear that the suez canal could be shut down and oil will soar out of site .could a action like this lead to war? oil jumped 3.70 a barrel today,gold was up 20 bucks also.the real fear is if all this happens the whole region will become unstable.


You don't think we'd step in and take control before allowing the Muslim brotherhood to take over?



under obama? mr "i will side with the muslims"
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:48:14 PM EDT

Originally Posted By gene5:
Originally Posted By The_Reaper:
Originally Posted By gene5:
if Mubarek steps down and Egypt becomes unstable, and is prime for a take over from the likes of the Muslim brotherhood,there is fear that the suez canal could be shut down and oil will soar out of site .could a action like this lead to war? oil jumped 3.70 a barrel today,gold was up 20 bucks also.the real fear is if all this happens the whole region will become unstable.


You don't think we'd step in and take control before allowing the Muslim brotherhood to take over?



under obama? mr "i will side with the muslims"

Just stop.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:48:52 PM EDT
Originally Posted By The_Reaper:
Originally Posted By gene5:
if Mubarek steps down and Egypt becomes unstable, and is prime for a take over from the likes of the Muslim brotherhood,there is fear that the suez canal could be shut down and oil will soar out of site .could a action like this lead to war? oil jumped 3.70 a barrel today,gold was up 20 bucks also.the real fear is if all this happens the whole region will become unstable.


You don't think we'd step in and take control before allowing the Muslim brotherhood to take over?



I don't think we can afford to without withdrawing our efforts from other places. This is part of why the Russians have been emboldened and moving so quickly to effectively seize power in other places and why they knew they could get away with invading Georgia. The U.S. cannot with its current military engage in an another large, sustained military effort. Even if we could I doubt Obama would do it anyways.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:49:05 PM EDT
Originally Posted By gene5:
if Mubarek steps down and Egypt becomes unstable, and is prime for a take over from the likes of the Muslim brotherhood,there is fear that the suez canal could be shut down and oil will soar out of site .could a action like this lead to war? oil jumped 3.70 a barrel today,gold was up 20 bucks also.the real fear is if all this happens the whole region will become unstable.
It means you and I would be sitting in our trucks.....doing something close to nothing. This unrest will also spread like wildfire too.

Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:49:28 PM EDT
No. Fucking. Way. that canal is closing.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:50:17 PM EDT
Watershed
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:50:45 PM EDT
Originally Posted By gene5:
Originally Posted By The_Reaper:
Originally Posted By gene5:
if Mubarek steps down and Egypt becomes unstable, and is prime for a take over from the likes of the Muslim brotherhood,there is fear that the suez canal could be shut down and oil will soar out of site .could a action like this lead to war? oil jumped 3.70 a barrel today,gold was up 20 bucks also.the real fear is if all this happens the whole region will become unstable.


You don't think we'd step in and take control before allowing the Muslim brotherhood to take over?



under obama? mr "i will side with the muslims"


I don't think he'd have a choice but to step in were the Suez Canal in jeopardy. Were that to close, oil would go a heck of a lot higher than $150/barrel. I want to say, and I'll probably be corrected, that a quarter to a third of all the world's oil goes through the Suez Canal. If that much was pulled from the market, it wouldn't just go up a quarter to a third, it's probably double or triple.

People would be screaming for Obama's blood for *NOT* doing anything about it.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:59:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/28/2011 4:01:15 PM EDT by hotbiggun42]
Originally Posted By Subnet:

Originally Posted By gene5:
Originally Posted By The_Reaper:
Originally Posted By gene5:
if Mubarek steps down and Egypt becomes unstable, and is prime for a take over from the likes of the Muslim brotherhood,there is fear that the suez canal could be shut down and oil will soar out of site .could a action like this lead to war? oil jumped 3.70 a barrel today,gold was up 20 bucks also.the real fear is if all this happens the whole region will become unstable.


You don't think we'd step in and take control before allowing the Muslim brotherhood to take over?



under obama? mr "i will side with the muslims"

Just stop.


Honestly i have no confidence in obama, this shit is happening at the worst possible time in American History. obama is incompetent and in way over his head. This is a crisis that he will not be able to deal with in a proper manner.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:01:01 PM EDT
The Multinational Force and Observers program of the UN has been there for over 30 years.

What are they teaching in the schools today?
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:01:43 PM EDT
I doubt the U.S. would have to worry that much.

The whole world uses the Suez Canal and would not stand for its closing.

The U.N.,(I know ) would send multi-national forces there quickly if something like that were to occur.

Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:06:16 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Keith_J:
The Multinational Force and Observers program of the UN has been there for over 30 years.

What are they teaching in the schools today?


worst case scenario sir
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:06:25 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Imbhindu:
I doubt the U.S. would have to worry that much.

The whole world uses the Suez Canal and would not stand for its closing.

The U.N.,(I know ) would send multi-national forces there quickly if something like that were to occur.


The UN has been there for 30 years!

Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:09:33 PM EDT
I am unclear on the facts, but if it turns out that we have a president, the Suez Canal will not be closed for more than 24 hours.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:13:20 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Keith_J:
The Multinational Force and Observers program of the UN has been there for over 30 years.

What are they teaching in the schools today?


What are they teaching? Based on news reports, I'd say they're probably teaching each other that if the child is young enough, you can forcibly bugger it without a condom.

Unless you were asking what's being taught by someone other than the UN forces.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:14:58 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Imbhindu:

The whole world uses the Suez Canal and would not stand for its closing.



Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973In May 1967 President Nasser ordered the UN peacekeeping forces out of the Sinai Peninsula, including the Suez Canal area. Despite Israeli objections in the United Nations, the peacekeepers were withdrawn and the Egyptian army took up positions on the Israeli border, closing the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping. The canal itself had been closed to Israeli shipping since 1949, except for a short period in 1951-1952.

After the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, also called the Six Day War, the canal was closed by an Egyptian blockade until 5 June 1975. As a result, fourteen cargo ships known as "The Yellow Fleet" remained trapped in the canal for over eight years. In 1973, during the Yom Kippur War, the canal was the scene of a major crossing by the Egyptian army into Israeli-occupied Sinai, and in the later stage of the war, a crossing by the Israeli army into mainland Egypt. Much wreckage from this conflict remains visible along the canal's edges.[citation needed]



Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:18:59 PM EDT
Originally Posted By The_Reaper:
Originally Posted By gene5:
if Mubarek steps down and Egypt becomes unstable, and is prime for a take over from the likes of the Muslim brotherhood,there is fear that the suez canal could be shut down and oil will soar out of site .could a action like this lead to war? oil jumped 3.70 a barrel today,gold was up 20 bucks also.the real fear is if all this happens the whole region will become unstable.


You don't think we'd step in and take control before allowing the Muslim brotherhood to take over?



You're kidding, right? The Kenyan IS Muslim. He would cream his pants.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:22:23 PM EDT
Originally Posted By omar:
Originally Posted By Imbhindu:

The whole world uses the Suez Canal and would not stand for its closing.



Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973In May 1967 President Nasser ordered the UN peacekeeping forces out of the Sinai Peninsula, including the Suez Canal area. Despite Israeli objections in the United Nations, the peacekeepers were withdrawn and the Egyptian army took up positions on the Israeli border, closing the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping. The canal itself had been closed to Israeli shipping since 1949, except for a short period in 1951-1952.

After the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, also called the Six Day War, the canal was closed by an Egyptian blockade until 5 June 1975. As a result, fourteen cargo ships known as "The Yellow Fleet" remained trapped in the canal for over eight years. In 1973, during the Yom Kippur War, the canal was the scene of a major crossing by the Egyptian army into Israeli-occupied Sinai, and in the later stage of the war, a crossing by the Israeli army into mainland Egypt. Much wreckage from this conflict remains visible along the canal's edges.[citation needed]





yep, and would not put it past the extremists to do the same including sabotage.the UN will run
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:25:43 PM EDT
Drill baby drill! Should have been doing it 3 years ago, 20 for that matter, but
we went though this shit in 07 and should have learned a lesson.

Just punch the next tree hugger you run into for spite.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 4:32:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/28/2011 4:33:02 PM EDT by gene5]
Originally Posted By Banditman:
Drill baby drill! Should have been doing it 3 years ago, 20 for that matter, but
we went though this shit in 07 and should have learned a lesson.

Just punch the next tree hugger you run into for spite.


this is what they where discussing on kudlow,we need to drill our own because of crap like this.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 5:04:24 PM EDT
Sounds like Obama's chickens come home to roost.

Of the US Presidents since Ford, at least three of the five have been derailed by events in the Middle East.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 5:39:04 PM EDT
If that happens I assure you that Israel will handle up. This happened 30 years ago....how do you think he was put into office? Get your learn on.....
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 5:41:07 PM EDT
If the canal gets shutdown, you're damn right there will be a war.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 5:45:31 PM EDT
I thought obama was muslim?
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 5:48:31 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Banditman:
Drill baby drill! Should have been doing it 3 years ago, 20 for that matter, but
we went though this shit in 07 and should have learned a lesson.

Just punch the next tree hugger you run into for spite.


At $150/bbl, maybe somebody will drill in the CONUS or offshore? Who knows? OPEC sets the prices by controlling production. US consumes 1/4 world crude production, uses 70% imported crude. Would you permit CONUS/AK/Canada crude based products to be sold here in the US & state tax free (a reverse tariff, if you will)?

Link Posted: 1/28/2011 5:51:25 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Banditman:
Drill baby drill! Should have been doing it 3 years ago, 20 for that matter, but
we went though this shit in 07 and should have learned a lesson.

Just punch the next tree hugger you run into for spite.

Alot of what contributes to the price of oil also has a great deal to do with global stability, not just how much there is being drilled.

Link Posted: 1/28/2011 5:56:22 PM EDT
As I recall, the majority of oil tankers are too big for the Suez anyway.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 5:57:18 PM EDT
When my Congressman was first elected several years ago, he had a town hall type meeting here. A number of folks attended, and one question was asked, " what would the US do if the oil got cut off" A big part of the meeting seemed to center around national security issues, and thats why it was asked. His answer was, "we would have two choices. One is to sit by and let our economy collapse. The second is to go to war. We would go to war." That was pretty clear to me.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 5:59:41 PM EDT
Originally Posted By dport:
As I recall, the majority of oil tankers are too big for the Suez anyway.


i think your right
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:35:12 PM EDT
Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet:
If the canal gets shutdown, you're damn right there will be a war.


If the canal gets shutdown for any lengthy period, there will be a world wide economic depression that will make the world wide recession of the last three years or so look like the best of times. War in the middle east will be accompanied by armed conflicts and terrorism around the world. Seriously bad things could happen. The perfect storm is getting nearer all the time.

Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:39:19 PM EDT
peak oil leading to global chaos.

Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:41:16 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Escape_from_NY:
Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet:
If the canal gets shutdown, you're damn right there will be a war.


If the canal gets shutdown for any lengthy period, there will be a world wide economic depression that will make the world wide recession of the last three years or so look like the best of times. War in the middle east will be accompanied by armed conflicts and terrorism around the world. Seriously bad things could happen. The perfect storm is getting nearer all the time.


Actually, modern super tankers are damn efficient, they could traverse the Pacific but with limited terminals on the west coast might force lightering tankers to traverse Panama and up to the GoM terminals. I know the shipping industry will love that...

Regardless, the UN forces in the Sinai will keep it open. They have for 30 years.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:41:39 PM EDT
I could see the canal and the Sinai being "taken" over if the Egyptian government were to fall........and it wouldnt be the Muslim brotherhood doing the taking
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:45:14 PM EDT
Fuck the middle east. You guys can get all the oil you'll ever need from the oilsands up here in AB and SK. Oh wait that's right, the oilsands are baaaaaaad, and must be stopped. We should all continue paying the wahabi fucks in Saudi Arabia for their oil because it's so much better for the environment
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:47:01 PM EDT
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption

The Suez Canal is considered a geographic "chokepoint” due to its influence in the world oil trade and because its narrow-width could be easily blocked, causing disruption to oil transport. In 2001, the Suez Canal transported approximately 1.3 million bbl/d of petroleum. The Sumed Pipeline has the ability to transport around 2.5 million bbl/d from the Ain Sukhna terminal at the Gulf of Suez to the Sidi Kerir at the Mediterranean Sea. Oil from the Sumed Pipeline is exported mainly to Europe and the United States. The pipeline consists of two parallel 42-inch lines and is owned by the Arab Petroleum Pipeline Company. By 2010, the Egyptian government hopes to have widened and deepened the Suez Canal enough to accommodate the passage of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and ultra large crude carriers (ULCCs).

Thats about 3.8 million barrels per day, Here's a list of usage by top countries.

#1 United States: 20,680,000 bbl/day 2007
#3 China: 7,578,000 bbl/day 2007
#4 Japan: 5,007,000 bbl/day 2007
#5 Russia: 2,858,000 bbl/day 2007
#6 India: 2,722,000 bbl/day 2007
#7 Germany: 2,456,000 bbl/day 2007
#8 Brazil: 2,372,000 bbl/day 2007
#9 Canada: 2,371,000 bbl/day 2007
#10 Saudi Arabia: 2,311,000 bbl/day 2007
#11 Korea, South: 2,214,000 bbl/day 2007
#12 Mexico: 2,119,000 bbl/day 2007
#13 France: 1,950,000 bbl/day 2007
#14 United Kingdom: 1,763,000 bbl/day 2007
#15 Italy: 1,702,000 bbl/day 2007
#16 Iran: 1,679,000 bbl/day 2006
#17 Spain: 1,611,000 bbl/day 2007
#18 Indonesia: 1,219,000 bbl/day 2006
#19 Netherlands: 984,200 bbl/day 2007

Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:49:51 PM EDT
Tankers can sail to the east also. The world is round.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:51:11 PM EDT
man the canal is a tempting target,if you are a crazy jihadist
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:57:09 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/28/2011 7:05:23 PM EDT by joshki]
Originally Posted By Keith_J:

Originally Posted By Escape_from_NY:
Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet:
If the canal gets shutdown, you're damn right there will be a war.


If the canal gets shutdown for any lengthy period, there will be a world wide economic depression that will make the world wide recession of the last three years or so look like the best of times. War in the middle east will be accompanied by armed conflicts and terrorism around the world. Seriously bad things could happen. The perfect storm is getting nearer all the time.


Actually, modern super tankers are damn efficient, they could traverse the Pacific but with limited terminals on the west coast might force lightering tankers to traverse Panama and up to the GoM terminals. I know the shipping industry will love that...

Regardless, the UN forces in the Sinai will keep it open. They have for 30 years.


No, Mubarak's government has kept it open for 30 years. Are you seriously suggesting that the 350 people (most of which are not even military, or even anywhere near Egypt) in the UNTSO are going to keep the Suez open? UNEF was shut down in July 1979, and I can't find anything on the UN's site suggesting there is anyone other than observers from UNTSO in Egypt.

ETA: If you're talking about MFO, they're not UN, and they have only 1662 personnel in Sinai.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:59:05 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/28/2011 7:01:07 PM EDT by ArmyInfantryVet]

Originally Posted By Escape_from_NY:
Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet:
If the canal gets shutdown, you're damn right there will be a war.


If the canal gets shutdown for any lengthy period, there will be a world wide economic depression that will make the world wide recession of the last three years or so look like the best of times. War in the middle east will be accompanied by armed conflicts and terrorism around the world. Seriously bad things could happen. The perfect storm is getting nearer all the time.



Nah. I don't think the situation would regress that far. Some intervention force would be sent in really quick to fix the situation.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:59:37 PM EDT
Originally Posted By Escape_from_NY:
Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet:
If the canal gets shutdown, you're damn right there will be a war.


If the canal gets shutdown for any lengthy period, there will be a world wide economic depression that will make the world wide recession of the last three years or so look like the best of times. War in the middle east will be accompanied by armed conflicts and terrorism around the world. Seriously bad things could happen. The perfect storm is getting nearer all the time.



Total protonic reversal.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 6:59:51 PM EDT
Most tankers will not fit in the canal.


The disruption will be minor except for the fools on the stockmarket making a quick buck.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 7:02:16 PM EDT

Originally Posted By GeorgiaBII:
Most tankers will not fit in the canal.


The disruption will be minor except for the fools on the stockmarket making a quick buck.

It is EUROPE that gets its oil from the ME through the Suez.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 7:02:18 PM EDT
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 7:03:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/28/2011 7:07:00 PM EDT by ArmyInfantryVet]

Originally Posted By GeorgiaBII:
Most tankers will not fit in the canal.


The disruption will be minor except for the fools on the stockmarket making a quick buck.

Might not effect us, but it WILL very much effect Europe

Regardless, oil prices will still skyrocket because perception of global stability governs alot of the pricing.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 7:06:52 PM EDT
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 7:08:52 PM EDT

Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet:

Originally Posted By GeorgiaBII:
Most tankers will not fit in the canal.


The disruption will be minor except for the fools on the stockmarket making a quick buck.

Might not effect us, but it WILL very much effect Europe

Regardless, oil prices will still skyrocket because perception of global stability governs alot of the pricing.


And what's Europe going to do? Write a few harshly worded letters telling the bad terrorists to reopen the canal and then give Obama asking him to do something he doesn't have the balls to do?
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 7:09:43 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1/28/2011 7:09:55 PM EDT by ArmyInfantryVet]

Originally Posted By DragoMuseveni:

Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet:

Originally Posted By GeorgiaBII:
Most tankers will not fit in the canal.


The disruption will be minor except for the fools on the stockmarket making a quick buck.

Might not effect us, but it WILL very much effect Europe

Regardless, oil prices will still skyrocket because perception of global stability governs alot of the pricing.


And what's Europe going to do? Write a few harshly worded letters telling the bad terrorists to reopen the canal and then give Obama asking him to do something he doesn't have the balls to do?

As I said in my first post in this thread. It will lead to war, and it wouldn't take long to start.
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 7:33:52 PM EDT

Originally Posted By HeavyMetal:
Originally Posted By Keith_J:

Originally Posted By GeorgiaBII:
Most tankers will not fit in the canal.


The disruption will be minor except for the fools on the stockmarket making a quick buck.

It is EUROPE that gets its oil from the ME through the Suez.


They can always go around the Horn of Africa.

Mighty dangerous weather. And seas. I will let Piccolo tell you just how rough that is. The Cape of Good Hope was initially called the Cape of Storms....
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 7:39:36 PM EDT
zero needs another crisis.

Arizona was not enough.
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