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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Predict the future: MG prices (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 11/15/2016 8:54:46 AM EDT
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I've been saving my nickels, and am looking for an MG. Before the election, I was worried about finding something I liked before Clinton got elected, and I saw a lot of movement in the market (In other words, prices were rising right before my eyes).
I get there was probably a bit of 'panic' (or maybe more accurately, 'uncertainty') buying... but now, uncertainties about bans have given way to uncertainty about the NFA changing/going away. Is this lack of urgency / perception of the NFA framework changing going to cause a softening of the market? Is it time to buy, or time to 'wait and see?' |
| The only thing that would change the prices current trend would be if they repealed the machine gun ban of 1986. I highly doubt that will ever happen, but hey we can dream right. If they allowed new machine guns to be added to the NFA registry, then that would create a much larger supply of machine guns and the prices would drop down to what the cost of a regular semi-auto firearm would cost. Of course if they don't repeal the Hughes Act, then machine gun prices will continue to rise because of lack of supply and demand always increasing. Let's see an UZI was going for around $3K when I was 21, that was about 12 years ago. Now UZI's are going for around $15K or so. |
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The machine gun market is currently a little soft because of election and post 41F drama.
If you want to buy a MG, then now is a good time to buy. Don't listen to daydreamer about MG repeal or other garbage... it's not going to happen. Historically, the best time to buy MG is always "NOW" and not later. Good luck. |
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There did seem to be a bit of a spike right before the election, understandably. I'm just curious to see if the 'wait and see' segment, combined with the 'Our weapons are safe with Trump as President' factor will put downward pressure on prices.
I'm looking at HK sears, and I was worried I would get priced out of the market... but I think it might hang on for a bit. |
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Not to sound pessimistic but I don’t personally see any future where machineguns will become unregulated.
Unfortunately, I also don’t see the Hughes amendment going away from a legislative or judicial standpoint. There is just too much downside for any politician to take on when less than 1% of the population has any desire to own a machinegun and I would suspect that probably 90% (or more) of the population supports a ban on machineguns. I guess you can never say never….but I would speculate that the odds are pretty slim the way things stand today. If you plan to wait it out, the odds of being priced out the market are a hell of a lot higher than the market taking a huge post-Hughes-repeal crash. As much as I would like to see new machineguns available there are a lot of other firearm legislative/judicial priorities that I think would be more beneficial to the firearm community “at large” and that are not the radioactive legislation that making machineguns legal to the masses would be. The only plausible scenario I see in regards to machineguns would be a very restrictive amnesty of war trophy’s from Veterans of Foreign wars which predated the 1968 amnesty. This could potentially have some minor pricing effect on the more common war trophies (that are not stolen gov property) like MP38s, MP40s, PPS variants, Stens, etc. However, a Veterans Amnesty isn’t going to make a dent in the pricing on most guns (or in your case HK Sears) If you want a machinegun I would purchase sooner than later as unfortunately my crystal ball shows prices only continuing to rise, albeit more slowly than they have the past two years due to 41p/F run up and that that every $1000 of pricing appreciation prices out another percentage of the available purchaser pool. |
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In the last six years, HK sears have doubled from $17,500 to $35,000. Unless Hughes gets overturned, I would expect prices to rise a bit less than that amount in the next six years for two reasons:
1. 41F annoys some buyers. 2. The more expensive they get, the smaller the pool of buyers gets. I'm surprised machine guns are as cheap as they still are. |
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Quoted: Not to sound pessimistic but I don’t personally see any future where machineguns will become unregulated. Unfortunately, I also don’t see the Hughes amendment going away from a legislative or judicial standpoint. There is just too much downside for any politician to take on when less than 1% of the population has any desire to own a machinegun and I would suspect that probably 90% (or more) of the population supports a ban on machineguns. I guess you can never say never….but I would speculate that the odds are pretty slim the way things stand today. If you plan to wait it out, the odds of being priced out the market are a hell of a lot higher than the market taking a huge post-Hughes-repeal crash. As much as I would like to see new machineguns available there are a lot of other firearm legislative/judicial priorities that I think would be more beneficial to the firearm community "at large” and that are not the radioactive legislation that making machineguns legal to the masses would be. The only plausible scenario I see in regards to machineguns would be a very restrictive amnesty of war trophy’s from Veterans of Foreign wars which predated the 1968 amnesty. This could potentially have some minor pricing effect on the more common war trophies (that are not stolen gov property) like MP38s, MP40s, PPS variants, Stens, etc. However, a Veterans Amnesty isn’t going to make a dent in the pricing on most guns (or in your case HK Sears) If you want a machinegun I would purchase sooner than later as unfortunately my crystal ball shows prices only continuing to rise, albeit more slowly than they have the past two years due to 41p/F run up and that that every $1000 of pricing appreciation prices out another percentage of the available purchaser pool. I am working on pushing toward opening up the registry to new MGs, I give it maybe a .5% chance of actually happening. Removing cans, SBRs, etc are much more likely, and like was said, opening up the MG registry is radioactive. The ONLY, and I mean ONLY way I see that happening is an amnesty period, which is executive. I would buy that MG.. |
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My prediction is that full auto won't ever be taken off nfa.
Therefore prices will always continue to rise due to a fixed supply I agree that machine guns probably won't be removed from the NFA. Heck, that would essentially mean that the whole NFA would be repealed. However, with Trump being elected and Republicans being in control of all 3 branches of government, there is an excellent chance of (a) some kind of machine gun amnesty, and/or (b) repeal of the Hughes Amendment and the registry being opened to new machine guns. I don't believe that this is pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking. This would have a mixed effect on prices. Things like DIAS, LL's, HK sears, etc., would drop to a minimal price (plus the tax, of course). On the other hand, anything collectible, such as an original Thompson, BAR, etc., would maintain its value. After a period of adjustment, demand for MG's would skyrocket, and prices of guns would again go up. I would not buy anything right now, until the landscape has clarified. Give Trump at least 6 months to see where this thing goes. We may be pleasantly surprised, or we may again be disappointed. |
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While I am working on pushing toward opening up the registry to new MGs, I give it maybe a .5% chance of actually happening. That was about the same chance given by the conventional wisdom for Trump being elected, around the time that he announced his run. I'd be very careful about making predictions in this atmosphere. The organized gun community needs to push hard on this. There are all kinds of convincing arguments that can be made in favor of opening up the registry. And don't forget the legislative tactics, the kind of tactics that gave us the Hughes Amendment in the first place. A repealer can be attached to another must-pass piece of legislation, it can be part of an omnibus gun bill that includes national concealed-carry reciprocity (which is popular among Republicans), or it can be added to a budget bill as part of reconciliation (the NFA, after all, is a tax law). The NRA-ILA legal staff should be working overtime on this right now. |
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Quoted:
You're being a defeatist. Instead of saying it won't happen, let's work to make it happen. Quoted:
Prices are going to go up. Duh.
Keep dreaming Hughes will get repealed. I have that dream too, then I wake up and come back to reality. You're being a defeatist. Instead of saying it won't happen, let's work to make it happen. No I am giving you my opinion after 30 years working to make it happen. |
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while I would love to see the ban listed or new stuff added to what we can buy, I don't see it happening. I'm guilty of being a gun guy and (formerly) even I didn't think MGs had any practical use. However, I had never shot one. Now that I have I understand they aren't crazy bullet hoses and some would actually make great HD options. They aren't much harder to make than a semi auto version, so if we could buy both at the same price it would be great.
If anything happens and things get legal and reasonably priced, I'll jump on an M16 lower, MPX or MP5, and Glock 18. instantly. I see SBS/SBRs/Cans coming off the NFA. Machine guns will be tougher to push but I still think we should. |
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In the mean time, y'all stop buying stuff so prices will dip for me. I suspect that a lot of the expressed pessimism regarding a repeal of Hughes is coming from people who do not want the market to be affected right now. If people really believed that Hughes would be repealed, they would stop buying at today's inflated prices. This would result in an across-the-board decline in prices in expectation of a repeal. The pessimism could be just another manifestation of the "greedy machine gun owner" syndrome. ("Greedy machine gun owners" are those who want the registry to remain closed, to protect the inflated value of their collections.) I thought that syndrome was extremely rare, but maybe not. You can expect that "greedy machine gun owners" would not admit it openly, but would use any sneaky way they could to undermine the effort to repeal Hughes and open the registry. But in the long term they're only hurting themselves. A healthy, open machine gun market would help the entire MG community in the long term. Things were good in the heyday of the market between 1968 and 1986. |
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Quoted:
The pessimism could be just another manifestation of the "greedy machine gun owner" syndrome. ("Greedy machine gun owners" are those who want the registry to remain closed, to protect the inflated value of their collections.) I thought that syndrome was extremely rare, but maybe not. You can expect that "greedy machine gun owners" would not admit it openly, but would use any sneaky way they could to undermine the effort to repeal Hughes and open the registry. If every person who owned a MG was a "greedy machine gun owner" that would be less than 100K folks. The simple fact is Hughes has not been repealed because the tens of MILLIONS of non machine gun owning gun owners do not care enough about repealing to make any significant effort. |
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The simple fact is Hughes has not been repealed because the tens of MILLIONS of non machine gun owning gun owners do not care enough about repealing to make any significant effort. But there are lots and lots of potential machine gun owners, just waiting for prices to become reasonable. Those are the people who should and could be lobbying to repeal Hughes. I bought my first Thompson in 1975, for $750 (plus the tax). A couple of years later, I bought my first BAR for $950. Back then, even though prices were reasonable, MG's were a niche market because most potential buyers didn't even realize that they were legal and available. That situation has changed. Now, people know about them, and want them. If the registry was reopened, FA guns would become as common as suppressors and SBR's. In fact there would be no reason to SBR a gun, if you could convert it to a machine gun instead (machine guns can have any length barrels). |
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The general rule about MG prices - "you never pay too much, you only buy too early." In other words, today's overpriced MG is a deal tomorrow. That rule could be stood on its head next year. It might be wise to be careful about buying stuff until the situation is clarified. |
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I'm 100% with him.
It simply ain't gonna happen. Quoted:
Prices are going to go up. Duh. Keep dreaming Hughes will get repealed. I have that dream too, then I wake up and come back to reality. Quoted:
Quoted:Predict the future: MG prices Prices are going to go up. Duh. Keep dreaming Hughes will get repealed. I have that dream too, then I wake up and come back to reality. |
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Quoted:
That rule could be stood on its head next year. It might be wise to be careful about buying stuff until the situation is clarified. Quoted:
The general rule about MG prices - "you never pay too much, you only buy too early." In other words, today's overpriced MG is a deal tomorrow. That rule could be stood on its head next year. It might be wise to be careful about buying stuff until the situation is clarified. Unfortunately, it has been clarified, and Hughes is at the very bottom of the list of things to fix. It simply does not have the backing that you want it to. |
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What specific machine gun would also be a factor. For example, there are only so many WWII vintage machine guns. There will never be any significantly more, even with a few "attic find" guns. On the other hand, modern design machine gun values could potentially drop if newly manufactured machine guns were once gain permitted. Replica builds of older designs will likewise have much lower value than the originals.
MHO, YMMV, etc. |
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Unfortunately, it has been clarified, and Hughes is at the very bottom of the list of things to fix. It simply does not have the backing that you want it to. It has just jumped to the top of the list. Things are moving fast. Sen. Orrin Hatch just announced that he will not support changing the Senate's filibuster rule. Without 60 votes in favor, that means that nationwide concealed-carry reciprocity, the #1 priority on Trump's pro-2nd Amendment list, is dead for this session. On the other hand, NFA reform (including removing suppressors and SBR's from the NFA, and opening the registry for new machine guns) can be passed under the streamlined "budget reconciliation" procedure, which requires only 51 votes, including Mike Pence's tiebreaker, if necessary. The Trump administration, and the Republican congress, are going to be under great pressure to deliver something to the organized gun owners who helped elect them. They cannot simply come up empty-handed. |
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Quoted:
It has just jumped to the top of the list. Things are moving fast. Quoted:
Unfortunately, it has been clarified, and Hughes is at the very bottom of the list of things to fix. It simply does not have the backing that you want it to. It has just jumped to the top of the list. Things are moving fast. ROFLMAO |
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Quoted:
Instead of laughing, why don't you show where I am wrong? Quoted:
ROFLMAO Instead of laughing, why don't you show where I am wrong? OK. Post the list and name who moved it to the top of the list. If you cannot do that, then that is where you are wrong. |
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My perception of the situation is that:
- The 'rush' to buy stuff before Clinton got elected died like her candidacy; - There is a perception (however misguided it may be) that the legal framework may change, radically dropping prices of existing guns ...would push prices down. Is it wishful thinking on my part, or is this happening? |
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Which 51 senators want the "they made machine guns legal" ads run against them the next time they run? I would love to get a m240 for $12k or a m249 for $8k, but it ain't going to happen. I doubt it would pass the house.
The pay back to gun owners is going to be via a pro gun supreme Court Justice. Other reforms may make it easier for you to get a manufacturer license which could allow more people to play, but I don't see transferable mgs increasing. |
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Quoted:
Which 51 senators want the "they made machine guns legal" ads run against them the next time they run? I would love to get a m240 for $12k or a m249 for $8k, but it ain't going to happen. I doubt it would pass the house. The pay back to gun owners is going to be via a pro gun supreme Court Justice. Other reforms may make it easier for you to get a manufacturer license which could allow more people to play, but I don't see transferable mgs increasing. I would guess you could probably count Senators who would want to try and take that hill on one...maybe two hands. As much as I would absolutely love to see the machinegun ban go away, I question the wisdom of trying to shove through something so toxic to 90% or more of the US population at large at the potential expense of losing the Senate majority in 2018 and with it the ability to confirm "conservative" supreme court justices. There are so many legislative and judicial appointment priorities (both firearm or non-firearm related) that need to be seriously dealt with than burning up political capital (as the primary legislative agenda item) so that less than 1/10th of 1% of the US population (myself included) who wants to Form 1 a machinegun is able to. I am a huge machinegun fan and would love to be able to build myself a 249, G18, etc. but honestly the government has much more pressing issues that need to be taken care of like immigration, dealing with the Obamacare mess, taxes, a national debt that is going to drown all of us, a 15 year old war in the middle east, job and wage stagnation, etc. On the firearm front it's absolutely critical to get a couple of conservative appointments to the supreme court to prevent a precedent that AR15s and standard capacity magazine are not protected under the 2nd amendment. Like it or not a standard cap mag ban and "assault weapon ban" case is going to make it to SCOTUS in the next couple of years as Bloomberg and his goons keep pushing this at the State level via ballot initiatives. Not to mention all the folks who are already lost behind the lines in California, New York, Colorado, etc. and need relief which at this point can really only come via the judiciary. We lose that eventual case, being able to Form 1 a machinegun when nobody can transfer or own a mag over 10rds doesn't provide much value. It would be like being able to Form 1 a machinegun today but only if you live in New York. I believe we have Alito, Thomas, and hopefully Trump's Scalia replacement on our side. We need two more votes to protect standard capacity mags and semi-autos under the 2nd as I don't trust that Roberts or Kennedy wont fold on this issue. Keeping a republican Senate and President for another presidential election cycles gives us good odds that some combination of Breyer, Ginsburg, or Kennedy are not pushing up daisies by that point. Executive actions and even legislation are temporary in nature and can be overturned at the whim of a administrative/legislative power change. Supreme Count decisions while not 100% permanent are much harder to undo and takes decades of time to turn back or chip away at. Getting as many pro-2nd amendment justices the high court should be the highest priority. Maybe then Hughes could be overturned via a favorable court decision and which then wouldn't be easily undone via the next political power swing. |
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Which 51 senators want the "they made machine guns legal" ads run against them the next time they run? You don't give our side enough credit. The issue can easily be framed in a much more "acceptable" way -- 1. Machine guns are legal, and have always been legal. The original NFA of 1934, and now the Hughes Amendment, discriminate on the basis of wealth. The wealthy can have all the FA toys they want, while ownership is precluded for people of modest means. This goes against Americans' innate sense of fairness. 2. By repealing Hughes, you would allow and encourage registration of machine guns which cannot now be registered. What antigun person is against registration? It is better to know who has machine guns than not know who has machine guns. If you don't provide an avenue for legal ownership, you encourage illegal ownership. 3. By collecting the NFA tax on these newly registrable weapons, you raise money for other worthy purposes. (This is exactly how casino gambling, and lotteries, are justified in states that have them. The tax revenues from these otherwise undesirable "vices" go for education and other desirable goals.) (Sure, the $200 tax per item is minimal, but we're talking about the principle of the thing.) 4. Unless Congress actually legislates and addresses the issue, the Administration could threaten to declare back-to-back 90-day amnesties, resulting in a disorderly end run around the prohibition (of new machine guns) and depriving the Treasury of the tax revenues. If Trump takes the lead on this (and he owes the NRA and gun owners big time -- make no mistake), the Republican members of Congress would have to follow, because of party discipline and their need for Trump's coattails. The senators that vote for this can be made into absolute heroes instead of villains. Good PR firms know how to do this. The NRA could "score" the vote, looking to its pre-election endorsements. These Republican members ignore the NRA at their peril. This would be a line item in a budget reconciliation bill. There's a good chance it would avoid scrutiny. When pressed, some members could claim ignorance. "You have to pass it in order to find out what's in it." If the Democrats can play that game, so can the Republicans. |
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Predict the future? The prices will be higher than now. That's 100% guaranteed, so there's not much predicting to do. Higher prices are 100% dependent on legislation or amnesties (or rather, lack thereof). The only reason MG prices are so high is the artificial scarcity induced by the Hughes Amendment. (You are not buying the physical object (the MG). You are buying the paperwork that goes with it.) This is not normal economics. It's market manipulation. A manipulated market cannot last forever. Something has to give eventually. What we are hearing now is the squealing and bleating of people who have too much money tied up in this precarious Ponzi scheme. There comes a point when the "greater fools" can no longer be found. |
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Quoted: Higher prices are 100% dependent on legislation or amnesties (or rather, lack thereof). The only reason MG prices are so high is the artificial scarcity induced by the Hughes Amendment. (You are not buying the physical object (the MG). You are buying the paperwork that goes with it.) This is not normal economics. It's market manipulation. A manipulated market cannot last forever. Something has to give eventually. What we are hearing now is the squealing and bleating of people who have too much money tied up in this precarious Ponzi scheme. There comes a point when the "greater fools" can no longer be found. Quoted: Predict the future? The prices will be higher than now. That's 100% guaranteed, so there's not much predicting to do. Higher prices are 100% dependent on legislation or amnesties (or rather, lack thereof). The only reason MG prices are so high is the artificial scarcity induced by the Hughes Amendment. (You are not buying the physical object (the MG). You are buying the paperwork that goes with it.) This is not normal economics. It's market manipulation. A manipulated market cannot last forever. Something has to give eventually. What we are hearing now is the squealing and bleating of people who have too much money tied up in this precarious Ponzi scheme. There comes a point when the "greater fools" can no longer be found. MGs are only worth something when you get a wad of cash. Kind of like PMs |
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When the U.S. economy crashed during "The Great Recession" there was a flat to drop in most MG prices (i.e., approximately late 2008 through late 2010). The demand side was constrained by lack of funds on the part of would be buyers; and the supply side was increased by the need for cash by a number of owners. Will the U.S. see that level and duration of economic downturn again?
MHO, YMMV, etc. |
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Quoted: When the U.S. economy crashed during "The Great Recession" there was a flat to drop in most MG prices (i.e., approximately late 2008 through late 2010). The demand side was constrained by lack of funds on the part of would be buyers; and the supply side was increased by the need for cash by a number of owners. Will the U.S. see that level and duration of economic downturn again? MHO, YMMV, etc. Most were flat but were still higher at the end of 2010 when conpaired to early 2008. And some were slightly lower. But if your house lost $100/150K in vaule. losing $500 to $1000 on a gun is not that bad.. |
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THE ONLY ACTUAL JOB THAT ANY POLITICIAN HAS IS TO GET RE-ELECTED. That's what occupies the guy's mind 24/7.
Not how to fix the economy or pay down the deficit. The politician is really only concerned with keeping his job. Some politicians have a 100% lock on getting re-elected. Like Teddy Kennedy. He could say or do anything he wanted and get re-elected. But most politicians are on pretty shaky ground. In a lot of places, these parasites keep their job by winning 50.2% of the vote. You go ahead and make a list of the politicians who are going to come out real strong in support of the general public buying brand new full auto military weaponry. I'll wait... Their democrat opponents would make campaign videos of 50 caliber MGs ripping up cars and guys pulling Glock 18s out of their coat and spraying full auto gunfire. A republican politician coming out in favor of opening up the NFA registry is like a democrat coming out in favor of legalizing heroin. You can make an excellent case for legalizing heroin. It would reduce crime by a huge amount and other countries have done it. When registered heroin addicts can get low cost heroin, they stop stealing and they stop pushing heroin so they can make enough money to support their habit. But the words "I want to legalize heroin" are still political suicide. The democrats would take footage from the Hollywood shootout for their attack ad. It is a perfect dramatic horrifying anti-MG campaign ad. Pictures of cops and civilians lying in pools of blood while two sociopaths spray them down with AKs. 
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Another thing:
Stop thinking that MG owners are somehow using their magic powers to keep the registry closed. So the prices will stay high. If every single MG owner in the USA wanted to keep the registry closed, it would have NO influence. Our personal feel-feels on the topic means exactly nothing. We all get exactly one vote on election day. That's it. Reflect on the fact that the number of NRA members is 4.5 million and the number of MG owners is maybe 100,000. That means NRA members outnumber MG owners 45 to 1. Regular gun owners outnumber MG owners 500 to 1. So obviously, the opinion of MG owners means exactly dick when it comes to keeping the registry closed. |
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Another thing:
Stop thinking that MG owners are somehow using their magic powers to keep the registry closed. So the prices will stay high. If every single MG owner in the USA wanted to keep the registry closed, it would have NO influence. Our personal feel-feels on the topic means exactly nothing. We all get exactly one vote on election day. That's it. Reflect on the fact that the number of NRA members is 4.5 million and the number of MG owners is maybe 100,000. That means NRA members outnumber MG owners 45 to 1. Regular gun owners outnumber MG owners 500 to 1. So obviously, the opinion of MG owners means exactly dick when it comes to keeping the registry closed. On the other hand, MG owners (and more importantly, potential MG owners) could have an effect on getting the registry opened. That's because MG owners and potential owners are the "opinion leaders" on this. They can publicize the MG hobby and make it more mainstream. Look at what has happened to the suppressor and SBR markets that, although regulated by the NFA, don't have to deal with a closed registry. Survey the NRA membership. I'll bet that the majority would like, someday, to be able to own a machine gun. So our first task is to lobby the NRA leadership, and then get the NRA to take the lead in lobbying Congress. (Or at least in lobbying the Trump administration.) |
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I do think we are headed in a direction of removing suppressors and SBR's from the NFA, but it will be hard to get anything to pass opening the NFA to new machine guns.
Maybe in the future we will be able to submit new machine guns to the NFA, but likely not at this time. Hopefully we can get suppressors and SBR's removed though. It was dumb to include them in the NFA in the first place. |
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I do think we are headed in a direction of removing suppressors and SBR's from the NFA, but it will be hard to get anything to pass opening the NFA to new machine guns.
Maybe in the future we will be able to submit new machine guns to the NFA, but likely not at this time. Hopefully we can get suppressors and SBR's removed though. It was dumb to include them in the NFA in the first place. It could all be done as an "NFA reform" package, added to a budget reconciliation bill, with minimal publicity. (This how we got the Hughes Amendment in the first place. It was a last-minute "poison pill" added to FOPA.) Let's see how good the NRA lobbyists are as legislative tacticians. |
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Quoted:
Another thing: Stop thinking that MG owners are somehow using their magic powers to keep the registry closed. So the prices will stay high. If every single MG owner in the USA wanted to keep the registry closed, it would have NO influence. Our personal feel-feels on the topic means exactly nothing. We all get exactly one vote on election day. That's it. Reflect on the fact that the number of NRA members is 4.5 million and the number of MG owners is maybe 100,000. That means NRA members outnumber MG owners 45 to 1. Regular gun owners outnumber MG owners 500 to 1. So obviously, the opinion of MG owners means exactly dick when it comes to keeping the registry closed. I agree except the NFATCA seems to be working the ATF hard to keep the status quo |
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Quoted:
On the other hand, MG owners (and more importantly, potential MG owners) could have an effect on getting the registry opened. That's because MG owners and potential owners are the "opinion leaders" on this. They can publicize the MG hobby and make it more mainstream. Look at what has happened to the suppressor and SBR markets that, although regulated by the NFA, don't have to deal with a closed registry. Survey the NRA membership. I'll bet that the majority would like, someday, to be able to own a machine gun. So our first task is to lobby the NRA leadership, and then get the NRA to take the lead in lobbying Congress. (Or at least in lobbying the Trump administration.) Quoted:
Another thing:
Stop thinking that MG owners are somehow using their magic powers to keep the registry closed. So the prices will stay high. If every single MG owner in the USA wanted to keep the registry closed, it would have NO influence. Our personal feel-feels on the topic means exactly nothing. We all get exactly one vote on election day. That's it. Reflect on the fact that the number of NRA members is 4.5 million and the number of MG owners is maybe 100,000. That means NRA members outnumber MG owners 45 to 1. Regular gun owners outnumber MG owners 500 to 1. So obviously, the opinion of MG owners means exactly dick when it comes to keeping the registry closed. On the other hand, MG owners (and more importantly, potential MG owners) could have an effect on getting the registry opened. That's because MG owners and potential owners are the "opinion leaders" on this. They can publicize the MG hobby and make it more mainstream. Look at what has happened to the suppressor and SBR markets that, although regulated by the NFA, don't have to deal with a closed registry. Survey the NRA membership. I'll bet that the majority would like, someday, to be able to own a machine gun. So our first task is to lobby the NRA leadership, and then get the NRA to take the lead in lobbying Congress. (Or at least in lobbying the Trump administration.) Well, I think you're going to die of old age before you see this happen. You think it's some kind of strange coincidence that exactly zero point zero politicians have even mentioned the Hughes amendment since 1986? 30 years and not a single peep. You'll see pigs fly before you see a politician campaigning on the bold platform of "brand new full auto military weapons for everyone". |
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You'll see pigs fly before you see a politician campaigning on the bold platform of "brand new full auto military weapons for everyone". It wouldn't be framed that way at all. We're talking about a subset of people who are carefully vetted, jump through all sorts of hoops, and have their guns in a national registry. Heck, this is a gun-controller's wet dream! This could be sold as "allowing unregistrable guns to be registered, monitored, and taxed." Surely our side could come up with some imaginative arguments here! |
[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Predict the future: MG prices (Page 1 of 2)
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