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Posted: 10/26/2003 11:51:19 PM EDT
First off, thanks for looking
 There has been a lot of discussion about the value of prebans after the sunset, but there hasn't been a whole lot of discussion about the value of postbans. The consensus seems to be that prebans aren't going to be worth any more than postbans, and I think that logic has some merit. That being said once flash hiders, bayonet lugs, and collapsible stocks are legal again I'm wondering what will happen to the value of rifles that don't have any of those features. Will their value be significantly less until they are retrofitted and brought up to snuff? I'm wondering specifically about M4gerys and lightweight CARs rather than 20" fullsize and varmint rigs. Do you think there will be a glut of politically correct postban rifles that the market deems undesirable? What's going to happen to carbines with those damn Mini-Y comps? Value in the toilet until it's replaced? Maybe I'm just thinking too much but I'd like to hear what you guys think. Thanks in advance. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 12:20:54 AM EDT
[#1]
my guess is that postban uppers will be a little cheaper than preban uppers..and the fake telestocks will sell for $20 or less.
i'd really like to see the prices on NIW usgi mags go way down, i wouldn't mind having about 100 of them. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 12:23:04 AM EDT
[#2]
This is a hairy question due to all the variables. After 9/04, the hottest thing will be what we now know as "pre-ban/LEO" style uppers. They will be needed for the construction of new rifles & the copletion of "post-ban rifles". The lowest thing on the totem pole will of course be post-ban uppers. In between these two extremes will be new "Post-sunset" rifles, new lowers, and "Used" complete rifles. If the manufacturers are snoozing while you and I are discussing this then the lack of preparations will have certain consequences for us next year, especially if there is serious talk of a new AWB. If everybody covered their ass then the hottest sellers will be the previously mentioned uppers, new complete rifles, and new lowers, in that order. If supplies are low however, some people might be willing to pay for a post ban rifle just to have it (and an upper)in their hand before the SHTF. If supplies are low enough due to the demand & this issue becomes a high profile powder keg postbans will possibly hold up due to desperate buyers willing to add features to these rifles, or even modify them in some way to grandfather them in before the new legislation passes. This scenario is a bit too extreme to be likely. I would say in the short term post ban uppers will nose dive and post-ban rifles will stay relatively consistent in terms of price. In the long term they will either become cheap obscurities or collector's items. All of that will depend on the buyers of the future though.
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Posted: 10/27/2003 1:32:17 AM EDT
[#3]
i just hope the damn thing isn't renewed and we are actually faced with this delimea.
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Posted: 10/27/2003 3:09:41 AM EDT
[#4]
Quoted: i just hope the damn thing isn't renewed and we are actually faced with this delimea. Absolutely right! All the optimists on the board assume that it won't be renewed, because the Dems don't have the votes to pass a bill. My own hunch (fear) is that they'll do exactly what they did w/full auto sales; attach a rider to another bill that wiil renew the ban, and the rest of the bill, appropriations or what ever, will be so important that the Presidant won't be able to veto it, and the Republican majorities will feel that they have to let it go through. That's the way that (dirty) game is played in D.C. It gives the Dems what they want, while giving the Republicans an excuse for having let it go thru |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 3:21:16 AM EDT
[#5]
While your cyinical outlook of DC politics is true enough, the AWB on its own merit won't pass. Dems took a hell of a beating in the polls after all the arm-twisting to get it through in 94. Even Tom Dickhole is taking a more moderate stance on firearms these days. I say "on it's own merit" because a stupid school shootig at the wrong time could possibly ruin everything, but again the odds are significantly in favor of this expiring unmolested.
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Posted: 10/27/2003 5:35:12 AM EDT
[#6]
Personally, I think a good gunsmith that can cut off a brake and thread the barrel will have pretty good business in a year from now. The bayonet lug, unless you are using a 14.5-inch barrel or shorter with a long flash supressor will not work with a bayonet anyways so it's a non-issue.
As for the non-collapsing CAR stocks, these will be some very cheap accessories IMHO. So, personally I don't think post-ban prices wil go anywhere but up as people grab these rifles and convert them to pre-ban status before some new Ban tries to take them away again. I am predicting a tight supply next year and I just wish I had some more money to grab more of the better deals on the EE at this point... As for pre-ban prices, I still have a pre-ban Colt and the value of this rifls has dropped significantly BUT I personally like the reassurance that I still have a rifle that I can do anything that I want to with as there is still time for a new law to bite me and at this point I only loose money if I sell it and that just isn't going to happen. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 7:35:28 AM EDT
[#7]
I talked to a local gunsmith and he told me that it would cost about $50 to thread a barrel. I expect postbans will sell at about a $50 discount.
There will probably be a glut of used A2 stocks on the EE. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 10:10:10 AM EDT
[#8]
The president can "line item veto" a bill if he so chooses.
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Posted: 10/27/2003 10:15:51 AM EDT
[#9]
Quoted: The president can "line item veto" a bill if he so chooses. The "line item veto" was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 10:19:11 AM EDT
[#10]
Quoted: Quoted: The president can "line item veto" a bill if he so chooses. The "line item veto" was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Yep [:(] [url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/supcourt/stories/wp062698.htm]Line item veto struck down[/url] |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 10:29:12 AM EDT
[#11]
Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The president can "line item veto" a bill if he so chooses. The "line item veto" was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Yep [:(] [url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/supcourt/stories/wp062698.htm]Line item veto struck down[/url] Damned.... To quote the quote..... "Time will tell." (In reguards to the assult bill) |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 10:54:39 AM EDT
[#12]
All the optimists on the board assume that it won't be renewed, because the Dems don't have the votes to pass a bill. My own hunch (fear) is that they'll do exactly what they did w/full auto sales; attach a rider to another bill that wiil renew the ban, and the rest of the bill, appropriations or what ever, will be so important that the Presidant won't be able to veto it, and the Republican majorities will feel that they have to let it go through. First of all, the Republicans control all the House committees that markup such bills - so no bill is going to be amendmed without A) a majority of House or Senate votes or B) Committee chairman approval. Both of those are highly unlikely in this case... Second, the full auto ban was not a "rider" attached to an unrelated bill. It was a last minute amendment to an existing gun rights bill designed to sink that bill. It was done in committee (which the Dems controlled then and don't now) through means that even the Capitol Hill Roll Call called "controversial" (the amendment was passed on a voice vote, the Dem committee chairman said "Sounds like it passed" and when the Republicans asked that votes be counted for the record, the committee chairman said no. - this too happened because the Dems then controlled the Rules Committee governing House procedure - also something they lost.) For more info on that vote check here: [url]http://www.guncite.com/journals/hardfopa.html[/url] |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 10:58:17 AM EDT
[#13]
You never know, in a few years, after everyone has converted their post bans to pre ban config. an un converted post ban may, MAY, be somewhat of a collectors item. You never can tell with guns, that's why their so much fun to collect.
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Posted: 10/27/2003 11:30:12 AM EDT
[#14]
I don't think uppers will change price at all.
Telestocks and such are a different matter. But for the uppers, there won't be much change because the naked barrels have a following of their own now, espcially in the 20" and longer lengths. Unmodified 16" uppers might get hard to find, and 16" crowned barrels might disappear from catalogs but the 20" crowned will still have a good market. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 11:44:54 AM EDT
[#15]
I don't think uppers will change price at all. I'm wondering if there will be a shortage of preban uppers for a while once it becomes legal for people to have them on their postban rifles. While I don't personally care about a bayonet lug I'm really looking forward to having an A2 hider on my postban M4 carbine. Rather than threading the barrel on my postban I think I'd rather keep it stock and buy a spare upper. I agree that retractable buttstocks will probably be scarce for a while as soon as everyone and their uncle retrofits their postban fixed telestocks. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 1:04:43 PM EDT
[#16]
Personally, I do believe there will be out of stock situations on receivers, complete rifles, barrels, flash supressors, CAR stocks, and most other parts needed to make or convert to pre-ban form.
Many people are not buying now as they are waiting for the Ban to die. I predict when the ban dies people will grab stuff up as fast as it is available for quite some time. Just imagine 30-rd Ciener mags for about $20 ea, any Glock Hi-Cap for about $20? How about a REAL AR-15 pistol again! What about items we could never have before like a CAR-10 or AR-10 pistol? How about a SAR1 underfolder for about $400? Why not a Para FAL? Perhaps a new BETA for just over $300... I know I want to stock up on some of the items that I have not been able to get and I want to do so before new clowns get to vote on my rights and do what they did to me before! If I wasn't so busy spending my money on guns, I think it would be a great time to buy some Bushmaster common STOCK! |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 1:14:23 PM EDT
[#17]
Quoted: While I don't personally care about a bayonet lug I'm really looking forward to having an A2 hider on my postban M4 carbine. You need something longer than that, an A2 flashhider won't bring a M4 barrel (14.5") up to minimum legal length. Here's something that will. [url]http://www.kurtskustomfirearms.com/catalog/item/29585/5301.htm[/url] |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 2:12:36 PM EDT
[#18]
Who cares? My rifles are for shooting not for selling...
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Posted: 10/27/2003 2:37:18 PM EDT
[#19]
I have been calling and writing politicians in many states in addition to volunteering for(2) campaigns and meeting (7) in person and cornering them at public meetings.I have spent a fortune on stopping the ban.I've also began to set up gun show tables.After speaking to these guys personally,in private and in public,I can only say we DO NOT have as much support as you think.Stop having wet dreams about pre-ban guns...start spending money on the battle to stop the ban.The lustfull,selfish gun owners are sleeping...just like in 1994.Get involved at www.AWbansunset.com Try going to NRA-ILA and look at HR2038,S.1034 and S.1431 The anti-gunners are already geared up and reaching the media.
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Posted: 10/27/2003 2:56:55 PM EDT
[#20]
It won't sunset.
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Posted: 10/27/2003 3:34:24 PM EDT
[#21]
Pesimist...
[;)] |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 4:46:40 PM EDT
[#22]
I believe the most dramatic result will be on magazines and stocks. When looking at magazines, I find that quality magazines in 10,20 or 30 round capacities for the AR15 are all similar in price so I think the only change will be a more consistant supply of new manufacture 20 and 30 round magazines. I actually think the magazine issue will have a more profound effect on other firearms such as Glock Handguns and rifles like the Ruger 10/22 which did not have a large volume of high capacity magazines in circulation prior to the ban.
Of course, a telescopic stock will be an easy addition to any rifle and fake telescopic stocks will become worthless. While some people are enthused about attaching flash suppressors and bayonet lugs, there are many people who are indifferent to either item so I dont see an effect on values. As far as major manufacturers changing their offerings, I would not count on major changes to their product lines except for dropping "pre-ban" restrictions on various uppers and parts. Instead you will see the accessory market try to quickly adapt to take advantage of the market change. The toughest hit will be to people who paid premiums for "pre-ban" rifles or lowers which will see the prices drop to be inline with post-ban models since the designation will not matter after a sunset. I agree as mentioned, dont assume the ban will slip quietly away. It is easy to say "let it die", but it is better to present facts to elected officials obtained from the BATF and FBI showing that the firearms in question are statistically insignificant in crime data. It is also important to show that the ban did not result in an attributal reduction in crime overall. The next thing to do if it does expire is to be sure to vote next November and make sure the people you vote for wont make passing a new expanded ban an early priority in 2005. While the presidential elections are the ones people are seeing in the news, lets not forget that certain members of congress and the senate will be facing elections as well. In addition, there will be state elections coming into play and states can pass their own laws (ie California, New Jersey, etc) Since they are the current news focus, i the democratic presidential candidates arent talking guns right now and them not making an issue now means you dont know what they will do if elected. Lets face it, the current ban expiring in 2004 only to be replaced by an expanded ban in 2005 would be a nightmare. We dont have to look too far to see what a new expanded ban would be modeled after (ie California) with no new rifle or lower receiver sales. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 4:48:17 PM EDT
[#23]
Quoted: Quoted: While I don't personally care about a bayonet lug I'm really looking forward to having an A2 hider on my postban M4 carbine. You need something longer than that, an A2 flashhider won't bring a M4 barrel (14.5") up to minimum legal length. Here's something that will. [url]http://www.kurtskustomfirearms.com/catalog/item/29585/5301.htm[/url] The barrel on my Colt M4 carbine is actually 16.1 inches without the brake. It's 17.25 inches if you include the brake in the measurement. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 5:06:08 PM EDT
[#24]
Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: While I don't personally care about a bayonet lug I'm really looking forward to having an A2 hider on my postban M4 carbine. You need something longer than that, an A2 flashhider won't bring a M4 barrel (14.5") up to minimum legal length. Here's something that will. [url]http://www.kurtskustomfirearms.com/catalog/item/29585/5301.htm[/url] The barrel on my Colt M4 carbine is actually 16.1 inches without the brake. It's 17.25 inches if you include the brake in the measurement. Oh, ok then. I assumed you had a standard M4 barrel. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 6:59:32 PM EDT
[#25]
I think post ban guns will be cheaper. Many will sell the AR's they don't want anymore to get the new ones with all the bells and whistles.
Since I don't care much about a telescoping stock or a bayo lug. I will be looking for some nice post ban uppers. Flattops with free floating handguards will be first on my list to buy. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 7:05:31 PM EDT
[#26]
The president really does not matter its congress and the senate that makes and passes bills.The president just signs or vetoes what comes past his desk.So what good will a democratic president be if republicans still control congress and the senate?simple he wont matter.
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Posted: 10/27/2003 7:08:49 PM EDT
[#27]
Quoted: It won't sunset. Yes, it will. It was designed to sunset. It was written specifically so that it would sunset. The real question is whether they'll replace it with a permanent ban of same or similar nature - I think they will. Or at least, I'm acting as if they will. "Hope for the best and prepare for the worst." By that, I mean, of course, that I'm buying stuff I think will go up in price later. |
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Posted: 10/27/2003 10:51:18 PM EDT
[#28]
The most BEAUTIFUL THING is that IF they renew the AWB in September, WE CAN ALL VOTE THEIR ASSES OUT IN NOVEMBER. It wont get us our guns back but at least we can cut their paychecks and send them home packing.
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Posted: 10/27/2003 10:56:04 PM EDT
[#29]
I think the values will be the same for postbans, prebans and all.
Fake telestocks should be given out free though. |
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Posted: 10/28/2003 8:05:37 AM EDT
[#30]
I think if it does sunset (which I don't think it will) that prices will pretty much remain the same, maybe slightly less. Look how much the LE-Only models went up in price since the ban-- they were affected too. I think once manufacturers realize they can sell them for $1500, they will! Same with mags! Look at the MSRP for Colt Post-Ban ARs (not gun show prices, I mean MSRP).
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Posted: 10/28/2003 6:41:31 PM EDT
[#31]
Quoted: Who cares? My rifles are for shooting not for selling... I care [:)] My rifles are shooters too, but I'd like to keep buying more. |
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Posted: 10/29/2003 5:01:18 AM EDT
[#32]
I dont know about the value of Post-bans, but if the EE is any indication, PRE-bans prices are going to drop like a stone. I don't know if it is the soft economy, or what, but pre-bans are getting very little play in the EE right now. Seems like two things are happening:
1) those who have pre-bans are looking to get some money before the ban sets and 2) folks are generally taking a "wait and see" attitude towards spending money on a pre-ban. It would appear that most are starting to feel that the ban will sunset without some sort of immediate legislation on its heels. Sort of a "window of opportunity" to convert their post bans before some new legislation comes round. I am purely speculating on all this, but, I have not seen Pre-bans move this slowly on the EE in some time. This lends support to my observations...... |
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